Political Movements Report

Social science is often presented as value-neutral, but its findings have repeatedly been used to justify, promote, and legitimize political movements and policy agendas. This report surfaces entries where social science claims provided the intellectual foundation for political action, showing the path from research finding to propagation to enacted policy.

Detailed Report Summary Report Political Movements

121 entries

False Assumption	Scientific Basis	Propagation & Policy
Gain-of-Function Benefits Outweigh Risks emerging The benefits of gain-of-function experiments on viruses outweigh the risks of laboratory accidents causing pandemics.	Fauci's 2012 paper defended gain-of-function as worth pandemic risk because natural outbreaks more likely; seemed credible from top NIH leader but wrong as COVID matched lab-engineered features. EcoHealth proposal for furin site in BSL-2 propped up low-risk view of such work; misleading as BSL-2 matches dentist office, virus later had exact feature. Gain-of-function experiments seemed credible because natural pandemics were deemed more likely than lab accidents, justifying the work to anticipate threats; this was misleading as it downplayed mi... Knowledge from gain-of-function research propped up the assumption by promising advances in pandemic preparedness; it generated sub-beliefs that scientists alone could assess risks adequately witho... ...and 11 more	propagation Top journals published letters from implicated scientists asserting natural origin and condemning lab-leak as conspiracy, shaping expert consensus. propagation The assumption spread through the influenza research community and funding agencies like NIH, with scientists conducting experiments under secure conditions but debating publication openly. propagation The assumption spread through media coverage framing gain-of-function research as essential amid H5N1 concerns. policy NIH allocated millions in funding to EcoHealth Alliance and WIV for bat coronavirus gain-of-function research based on risk-downplaying views. policy NIH and U.S. Government funded gain-of-function research on H5N1 and planned to expand dual-use research of concern (DURC) oversight framework in 2012 to include 15 pathogens. policy Gain-of-function research undergoes multiple layers of review before approval, reflecting policy accommodations despite risks. ...and 11 more
Education Builds Human Capital emerging Education causally builds human capital and productivity through skills learned in school, driving economic growth and labor market returns.	Labor market returns to education come mostly from human capital built in school. This seemed credible from correlations between years schooled and earnings or growth, but misled as g-loaded tests ... Schooling teaches job-relevant skills and knowledge. This propped up the model but failed as most content like sonnets or cubic equations proves irrelevant to careers, with low retention even admit... Policymakers' assertion that more education spending leads to income growth recovering the investment seemed credible as conventional wisdom but was misleading due to ignoring endogeneity. The pape... Prior evidence linking education to growth relied on crude proxies like average years of schooling, which conflate types and suffer endogeneity; the paper's direct spending measures and instruments... ...and 16 more	propagation Conservatives and others praised cultures valuing education, spreading the idea that heavy investment in schooling benefits society despite recognition of credential inflation since the 1970s. propagation The assumption spread through prestigious academic venues like Brookings Papers on Economic Activity conference drafts by NBER-affiliated economists. propagation The human capital view spread widely through economists to other social scientists, pundits, policymakers, and the general public as economics' most successful export, with bipartisan embrace acros... policy Countries enacted education reforms increasing or decreasing curriculum by a year based on human capital benefits, but saw no earnings gains for affected cohorts. policy Public subsidies for schooling rest on the human capital model of skill-building. policy U.S. government funds education heavily across levels, spending around $1 trillion yearly based on beliefs in its skill-building benefits. ...and 9 more
Gender is a Social Construct emerging Gender is a social construct distinct from biological sex.	Gender was redefined as socio-cultural counterpart to biological sex, seeming credible via postmodern linguistics but wrong as it ignored biological realities like gametes and led to dualism reject... Intersex conditions were cited as evidence disproving the male-female binary and proving sex continuum, but they are rare developmental disorders affecting under 0.02% of births that do not constit... Gender roles and traits like masculinity and femininity are learned behaviors shaped by culture with biology insignificant, but evolutionary pressures and reproductive asymmetries explain persisten... Patriarchy is a sociocultural system of male dominance oppressing women, causing pay gap through discrimination, but it emerges from evolutionary reproductive strategies and behavioral choices. ...and 17 more	propagation Postmodernists in 1960s academia laundered cultural ideas into gender via new departments and linguistic shifts. propagation The assumption spread through 1960s and 1970s feminist movements from university departments to policy debates, classrooms, and online discourse. propagation Mainstream intellectuals propagated the orthodoxy by calling race belief bigoted while demanding race-conscious analysis and policies to address illusory race-based disparities. policy Bathrooms opened to both sexes and female sports to males identifying as females based on gender ideology. policy Early 20th-century Israeli kibbutzim enacted institutional policies of identical work for men and women and communal child-rearing to eliminate gender roles. policy Affirmative action represents race-conscious policies enacted under the orthodoxy to correct disparities attributed to racism despite race's supposed non-existence. ...and 22 more
America Faces STEM Shortage emerging The US faces a massive shortage of STEM workers that justifies expanding the H-1B visa program.	The NSF's 1980s study seemed credible due to demographic projections but was wrong as STEM graduate supply proved sufficient, shown by wage stagnation. Claim that H-1B attracts 'best and brightest' seemed plausible but misleading as foreign students attend below-average schools, produce fewer patents, and many Indian engineers (80%) are unfit. President’s Jobs and Competitiveness Council claimed the economy needs 10,000 more engineers yearly for innovation; this seemed credible from authoritative voices but ignored data showing 25,000 ex... Projections of needing 34 percent more undergraduate STEM degrees annually seemed credible based on competitiveness concerns but ignored surpluses in specific fields like biology PhDs for academia. ...and 38 more	propagation The STEM shortage narrative spread through industry lobbyists and became engrained in public discourse despite counterarguments. propagation Industry leaders and policymakers repeated shortage claims in Congress and Executive Branch discussions on immigration, education, and competitiveness, shifting offshoring justification from cost t... propagation Reports from government bodies and academies spread the shortage narrative through policy recommendations and media echoes. policy The H-1B visa program was enacted and expanded based on the STEM shortage assumption to recruit foreign talent. policy Immigration bills expanded high-skill guest workers like H-1B visas based on shortage claims; education policies pushed more STEM training despite excess supply. policy Calls for K-12 science and math education improvements and increasing higher education attractiveness in STEM fields were enacted based on shortage projections. ...and 51 more
Segregation Harms Black Children's Self-Esteem emerging The Clark doll experiment proved that segregation caused black children to develop low self-esteem and prefer white dolls over brown ones.	The Clark doll experiment was cited as proof that segregation caused black children to prefer white dolls and suffer low self-esteem; it seemed credible due to publication and Supreme Court use but... The assumption rested on the belief that racial disparities prove discrimination, with no role for biology or genetics in group outcomes. Two meta-analyses showed reliable race differences in job performance with blacks lower than whites on subjective and objective measures, contradicting discrimination explanation. Doll tests showed Black children preferred white dolls and assigned positive traits to them, seeming to credibly prove segregation caused inferiority feelings; the evidence was misleading as prefer... ...and 22 more	propagation The distorted interpretation spread through reiterative citation in social psychology textbooks, academic papers, and AI training data from the internet, sanctifying it despite known flaws. propagation Progressives obsess over racial disparities, using them incessantly to fuel rage, promote anti-white racism, undermine meritocracy, and attack institutions like criminal justice. propagation Doll test entered public discourse and litigation through Kenneth Clark's testimony, summary endorsed by 35 social scientists, and citation in Supreme Court opinion. policy Brown v. Board of Education (1954 US Supreme Court) ended racial segregation in public schools based on Clark's testimony; it led to forced busing policies. policy Affirmative action rewarded undeserving blacks and Hispanics with college positions and professional roles; many universities eschewed mandatory standardized testing because tests showed racial dif... policy 1954 Brown v. Board of Education Supreme Court decision cited Clark's doll test research and incorporated its core conclusion that segregation generates inferiority feelings in Black children. ...and 28 more
Border Surge Not Key Voter Issue emerging A surge at the border from lax immigration policies would not be an important issue to most voters, and stronger enforcement would alienate Latino and	Biden insiders believed a border surge would not matter politically to most voters, seeming credible amid assumptions Latinos favored open borders but wrong as backlash proved decisive. Assumption that stronger enforcement would alienate Latino and progressive voters propped up inaction, based on elite interactions with activists but false as ordinary Latinos supported restrictions. The belief that restrictive policies echo far-right extremism seemed credible amid 2015 Danish right-wing surges but proved wrong as Social Democrats toughened rules, defeated populists, and cut as... Exit poll data from 2000 was misinterpreted to support immigrant volume over white vote share. It seemed credible because Hispanic votes were growing in states like California, but ignored Electora... ...and 32 more	propagation American establishment prejudice of anti-anti-Open Borderism framed immigration realists as racists, spreading via elite zeitgeist and hatred of restrictionists. propagation Intra-party opposition and media framing spread the assumption, with Labour MPs calling Danish model too hardcore despite voter concerns and Reform UK's rise. propagation Media and books spread the assumption by portraying Sailer's white-vote critique as fringe white nationalism unfit for mainstream. policy Biden Administration rejected transition team options to deter migrants after 2020 election warnings, maintaining lax enforcement post-inauguration. policy UK's pre-September Refugee Family Reunion scheme allowed spouses, partners, and dependants under 18 without income or English tests, based on rejecting Danish-style restrictions. policy GOP pursued pro-immigration policies like advertising in unwinnable California despite the volume logic. Bush wasted $20 million there in 2000. ...and 58 more
Test-Blind Admissions Promote Equity emerging Eliminating standardized testing in college admissions would promote racial equity without harming academic preparation.	High school GPAs became unreliable predictors due to grade inflation during COVID and Racial Reckoning, yet were prioritized over tests. Standardized tests were seen as unnecessary or biased, despite evidence they predicted college success better than GPAs, even for nonwhites. The assumption rested on the claim that the scientifically developed PACE test showed invalid racial disparities due to bias; it was wrong because no subsequent predictively valid test achieved equ... The belief that admissions disparities reflect only academic and extracurricular differences, not policy preferences like legacy status. ...and 54 more	propagation The Racial Reckoning after George Floyd's death drove elites to adopt test-blind policies for equity. propagation The assumption spread through legal settlement when the Carter Administration surrendered to plaintiffs, imposing the consent decree on future administrations. propagation Debate in academia and policy framed any Asian-white gaps as non-existent or qualification-based, delaying scrutiny until data releases. policy UC regents banned SAT/ACT submission for all UC campuses in November 2021, making the system test-blind. policy UC San Diego shifted admissions to favor applicants from heavily Hispanic downscale schools over Asian upscale ones from spring 2020 to 2022. policy The Luevano consent decree was enacted in January 1981 and banned written exams for many federal civil service positions based on the PACE bias claim. ...and 91 more
Grooming Gangs are a Moral Panic emerging The Muslim grooming gang panic is a moral panic alleging that Asian men are sexually abusing young White girls in the United Kingdom.	Home Office report cited flawed prior studies by Sue Berelowitz claiming white majority in group-based abuse, but noted data unreliability due to unrecognized grooming gangs and ethnicity confusion. Claims of an overwhelming problem with white perpetrators relied on incomplete and unreliable data, ignoring convictions of Asian ethnic groups and lacking proof. Victims were viewed as 'child prostitutes', 'wayward teenagers', or collaborators, propping up blame-shifting instead of recognizing child sexual exploitation. Group-based CSE seemed rare based on flawed datasets like COCAD identifying only 700 offences in 2023, but under-reporting and inconsistent definitions hid the true scale. ...and 56 more	propagation British media outlets reinforced the stereotype denial by disproportionately underreporting Asian cases and amplifying misreadings of Home Office report as proving no ethnic link. propagation Wikipedia propagated the moral panic framing by incorporating newspaper misinterpretations, leading to claims of 'likely no connection between ethnic groups and child sexual abuse.' propagation Obfuscation spread through institutional debates where incomplete data suited agendas, dodging ethnicity questions despite evidence warranting examination. policy UK police and children's services enacted policies of inaction on grooming gang reports for decades, prioritizing avoidance of racism accusations over prosecution. policy No national policy required consistent ethnicity recording in crime data over the last decade, despite repeated reviews calling for better perpetrator information. policy Fragmented policy landscape across departments led to inconsistent definitions and no grip on data for CSE, repeating failures since 2009 definition. ...and 88 more
Blacks Receive Harsher Sentences emerging Black and Latino defendants receive harsher sentences than Whites or Asians for most crimes.	Studies cited to support bias showed minimal effect sizes around β=0.06 from 2005 onward, indistinguishable from noise, yet were used to claim significant racial and class disparities in sentencing. Lower-quality studies and those with citation bias overstated disparities, as researcher expectancy effects inflated effect sizes. Studies from 2005 onward reported minimal effect sizes for racial disparities in sentencing, about β=0.06, indistinguishable from statistical noise below β=0.10. Lower-quality studies and those wit... Prior empirical studies reported mixed results with small effect sizes for racial disparities in sentencing, often statistically significant due to large samples but too small to indicate meaningfu... ...and 30 more	propagation Liberal and progressive leanings in academia turned views of racial bias into status-signaling, making critical evaluation taboo and sustaining the belief despite weak evidence. propagation Negativity bias and overinterpretation of statistical noise from large samples allowed scholars to maintain perceptions of bias despite weak evidence. propagation The assumption spread through scholarly narratives favoring systemic racism despite weak evidence, aided by negativity bias, overinterpretation of noise in large samples, and progressive leanings i... policy Sentencing guidelines and reforms targeted judicial discretion based on conviction crimes, which plea outcomes predetermined, misdirecting efforts away from prosecutorial practices. policy Federal sentencing practices post-Booker, including advisory guidelines and departure decisions, were shaped by the Commission's findings of demographic differences, leading to scrutiny of non-gove... policy War on drugs and tough on crime initiatives led to grossly disproportionate black incarceration rates and harsher sentences for first-time drug offenses. ...and 32 more
Refrigerator Mothers Cause Autism emerging Autism and schizophrenia result from emotionally cold or dysfunctional mothers known as refrigerator or schizophrenogenic mothers.	Schizophrenia was attributed to schizophrenogenic mothers who created double binds by being cold, rejecting, overprotective, and seductive. Autism was linked to refrigerator mothers who were emotio... Psychiatric disorders like schizophrenia and autism were blamed on parents, particularly mothers described as schizophrenogenic or refrigerator mothers, which seemed credible in the bad old days bu... Kanner's observations of parental traits seemed credible amid dominant psychoanalysis and eugenics eras but were wrong, as they described autism phenotype traits, not causes; Bettelheim's concentra... Kanner's 1943 article 'Autistic Disturbances of Affective Contact' described parents of autistic children as robotic and scientific, seeming to treat children as experimental objects, propping up p... ...and 11 more	propagation Psychiatric professionals routinely promoted parental blame for disorders like schizophrenia and autism. propagation The assumption spread routinely in past psychiatric practice, where people blamed parents for these disorders. propagation The medical establishment and psychoanalysts championed the notion through articles, books, and clinical practice into the mid-1960s, with effects lingering due to absence of biomedical alternatives. policy Residential treatments like Bettelheim's 'parentectomy' at Orthogenic School were enacted based on the theory, separating autistic children from parents as standard milieu therapy. policy Bettelheim advocated parent-ectomies, removing autistic children from parental care, as a treatment based on psychogenic theory. policy Psychiatric hospitals implemented intensive psychoanalytic therapy and family studies blaming mothers, standard practice into the 1970s. ...and 11 more
Schools Can Make All Students Equal emerging Schools and equalized environments can eliminate or substantially narrow individual differences in student achievement and learning outcomes.	Howard Gardner's theory of multiple intelligences was cited as evidence that intelligence is not a single score and achievement gaps could be addressed through tailored teaching to different 'intel... Belief that school and classroom factors explained most achievement differences, with only minor individual variation. This seemed reasonable amid pushes for equalization but was wrong, as 90 perce... Genes play a minor role in achievement compared to environment. Teachers ranked genes outside top three factors despite heritability reaching 0.80, making genetics more influential than all environ... Intelligence as measured by IQ is the best predictor of educational outcomes, yet teachers believe it is too simplistic to measure intelligence with one score and endorse Howard Gardner’s multiple ... ...and 38 more	propagation Teacher training programs spread false views on intelligence, with large majorities of teachers rejecting IQ as simplistic and endorsing multiple intelligences. propagation Education programs actively suppressed accurate information on IQ and genetics to maintain egalitarian views. propagation Teacher training programs teach Howard Gardner’s theory of multiple intelligences despite little support from psychologists and sometimes actively keep accurate information about intelligence from ... policy USSR banned standardized testing in 1936 to conceal achievement differences after equalization efforts failed. policy Opposition to ability grouping and grade skipping became institutional norms, despite no evidence of harm from skipping and necessity of grouping. policy U.S. governments allocated nearly $1 trillion in 2023 to K-12 education based on underfunding claims, dwarfing spending on defense, transportation, and other services. ...and 41 more
Diverse Essential Workers Should be Vaccinated Before Seniors emerging Vaccinating essential workers before seniors would best promote equity and save more lives despite data showing higher deaths.	Essential workers were prioritized over seniors because they were more likely from marginalized communities, making equity the key argument despite data favoring seniors to minimize deaths. Essential workers were more likely from marginalized communities, justifying prioritization over seniors despite data showing seniors first would save more lives. Belief that essential workers drive transmission and merit equity priority due to vulnerability propped up their prioritization. This seemed credible from high contact rates and demographics but ov... Equity argument for essential workers requires assigning them over six times the weight of elderly when vaccines do not curb transmission, showing weak justification. ...and 22 more	propagation Equity was repeatedly invoked in the CDC advisory committee discussion to justify prioritizing essential workers over seniors. propagation The word equity came up repeatedly in the committee discussion, overriding data-driven priorities. propagation The assumption spread through national guidelines weighing transmission control and equity. policy In November 2020, the CDC advisory committee decided to inoculate essential workers ahead of seniors, overriding public support and modeling for the highest-risk groups. policy Selected national guidelines proposed essential worker prioritization in vaccine allocation. policy Vaccine policies needed to balance direct protection of vulnerable elderly against limiting transmission by essential workers, with models supporting essential worker prioritization in early phases. ...and 26 more
Structural Racism Causes Health Inequities emerging Structural racism is a fundamental cause of health inequities.	Declaration that structural racism is a fundamental cause of health inequities seemed credible post-2020 amid social justice fervor but is at best arguable, ignoring other factors. Insistence that race and racism are at the root of Black-white health disparities, presented as fact requiring explicit acknowledgment, overlooked variables like health literacy and self-care. Black infant mortality rate 2.3 times higher than White and life expectancy gap of 3.4 years were cited as evidence of structural racism's ongoing effects. Seemed credible due to persistent gaps po... Residential segregation creates unequal resources, pollution, and violence in Black neighborhoods, presented as core mechanism of structural racism. Seemed reasonable given redlining history, but o... ...and 51 more	propagation Post-George Floyd, doctors’ pursuit of social reform coalesced into a mission, infusing curricula with progressive ideology and mandating interventions like unconscious bias training. propagation Medical students immersed in notion that political advocacy equals learning anatomy, with debates like affirmative action off-limits after Norman Wang's critique drew denunciations. propagation Assumption spread via state public health journals, policy briefs, and practitioner guides targeting officials and partners. policy AAMC mandated antiracist/unconscious bias training and interracial dialogues for 155 U.S. medical schools shortly after George Floyd's death. policy AMA's 2021 and 2024 Strategic Plan to Embed Racial Justice encouraged dismantling white patriarchy in medicine. policy CDC vaccine advisory committee proposed race-based prioritization over age, delaying elderly vaccinations. ...and 69 more
Benefits of Mass Migration Outweigh Costs contested Immigration is inherently and reliably economically positive regardless of scale, composition, or management.	The belief that immigrants are a homogeneous, economically positive group relied on the argument that humans are interchangeable widgets differing only by institutions, generating sub-beliefs that ... Assumption that only institutions and policies vary between societies, making people interchangeable, propped up widget-treatment of immigrants; cited for superficial transactional efficiency but w... The core argument held that more immigration leads to more transactions and gains from trade, boosting the economy overall; it seemed credible to market proponents as positive-sum interactions but ... Belief that increasing total GDP from immigration benefits everyone; cited as evidence of economic growth but generated sub-beliefs like ignoring per capita GDP and distributional questions. ...and 245 more	propagation The assumption spread through mainstream economic commentary in the US, where economists like Smith and Sumner made simplistic pro-immigration statements, amplified by social-status incentives to d... propagation Social-status dynamics among economists propagated the view by discounting resident working-class experiences disproportionately harmed by immigration costs. propagation The assumption spread through economic discourse and class-signaling, where supporting markets allegedly required backing high immigration levels, shaming dissent as ignorant. policy Failure to enforce laws against grooming gangs in Britain stemmed from immigration-influenced 'anti-racism' pressures, allowing decades of abuse. policy US H1B visa program used to import entry-level workers willing to accept lower wages and conditions than locals, based on assumption immigration fills skill gaps economically. policy Capital controls were wound back or abolished and trade protection reduced, policies enacted under neoliberalism from the 1980s that rhetorically extended to open immigration as market expansion. ...and 278 more
Poverty Drives Urban Homicides contested Poverty, inequality, and deprivation are the root causes of high homicide rates.	The root causes view asserted that poverty, inequality, deprivation, and related socioeconomic factors drove homicide rates, appearing reasonable through observed correlations but misleading since ... The assumption that high gun ownership alone drives homicide rates propped up simplistic explanations, but proved misleading as high-ownership nations like Canada and Switzerland maintain low rates... Mainstream economics' model of humans as rational calculators underpinned analyses treating most homicides as instrumental, but this was flawed since 75-80% of U.S. homicides are expressive, arisin... The violent predators narrative framed homicide as acts by a distinct class of bad actors, seeming intuitive but inadequate as it overlooked locality-driven patterns not tied to fixed predator prof... ...and 79 more	propagation The assumption spread through peer-reviewed journals in evolutionary human sciences and citations to prior work in economics and sociology. propagation The assumption spread and persists in policy discussions despite contrary evidence. propagation Public debate on urban crime focused on structural factors or law enforcement alone, sidelining family institutions through academic and policy discourse. policy The study advocated policies to dismantle structures generating poverty and economic inequality as a way to reduce US homicide rates. policy Jobs programs and income-transfer programs targeted low-income populations and ex-prisoners under the assumption they would reduce violent crime. policy Policymakers focused on structural factors like poverty, implying need to shift toward encouraging stable two-parent families in high-crime areas. ...and 74 more
COVID-19 Has Natural Origin contested SARS-CoV-2 emerged naturally from wildlife and the lab-leak hypothesis is a baseless conspiracy theory.	The Lancet letter by 27 scientists claimed scientific proof of natural origin and condemned lab-leak as conspiracy; it seemed credible due to prestigious journal and expert signatories but was misl... Nature letter asserted analyses showed SARS-CoV-2 not a lab construct; credible from top journal but generated sub-belief that lab origin impossible, despite prior furin site engineering proposals ... EcoHealth's 2018 proposal to engineer furin cleavage site in BSL-2 was cited internally as cost-effective; propped up gain-of-function rationale but was rejected by DARPA for risks, yet proceeded v... Natural origin denial leaves health authorities' guilty-seeming behavior unexplained; this propped up the assumption while generating sub-beliefs in harmless policies like masking and school closures. ...and 24 more	propagation Academic and media establishment covered for experts promoting natural origin, labeling questioners as racist conspiracy theorists. propagation Health authorities of China and America spread natural origin narrative through actions betraying guilt consciousness. propagation Peer-reviewed publication in Nature Medicine spread the natural origin conclusion through genomic comparison to scientific audiences. policy NIH under Fauci continued funding millions to EcoHealth Alliance and WIV for bat coronavirus gain-of-function research after DARPA rejection, enabling work that matched Covid-19 features. policy The statement supported WHO Director-General's call to prioritize scientific evidence over misinformation, influencing global health policy to dismiss lab-leak inquiries. policy Aligned with WHO policy to prioritize evidence and unity, influencing global health response coordination. ...and 16 more
Policing Disparities Prove Discrimination contested Disproportionate police searches of Black and Latino drivers indicate intentional racial discrimination unrelated to crime rates.	The lawsuit cited search disparities (84% Black/Latino drivers searched vs. 4% white) as proof of discrimination, ignoring that whites comprise a larger share of car travel; this seemed credible vi... Low contraband yield in searches was argued as proof of baseless fishing expeditions, seeming reasonable without context but failing to account for deterrence effects or matching violent crime demo... Assumption that policing should ignore racial crime disparities and match traffic demographics or population shares, propped by lawsuit stats but contradicted by arrest data mirroring victim and su... Six months of 2020 data showing Black drivers stopped five times more than Whites was cited as proof of discrimination; it seemed credible as raw disparity but ignored 29 times higher Black firearm... ...and 106 more	propagation Federal lawsuit and New York Times coverage propagated the discrimination narrative, echoing the 2013 stop-and-frisk ruling that deemed similar practices unconstitutional. propagation Washington Post news section framed the lower court ruling as police targeting Black drivers, amplifying the disparities prove discrimination narrative. propagation Social pressure labels awareness of higher Black firearm homicide rates as racist hatestats, stifling rational discussion of stop justifications. policy 2013 federal court ruling ended NYPD stop-and-frisk after NYCLU lawsuit, based on the assumption that racial disparities proved unconstitutional discrimination. policy Lower court decision tossed felon-in-possession indictment based on alleged discriminatory traffic stop practices in Richmond, Virginia in 2024. policy Post-Ramparts federal civil rights consent decree on LAPD required stops proportional to racial demographics, not crime patterns, enacted late 1990s. ...and 157 more
Great-Because-Girl Stories Succeed Commercially emerging Injecting 'great-because-girl' tropes and 'bad-because-boy' dynamics into male-centric franchises will maintain or expand audience appeal and box offi	The blank slate view of humans underpinned great-because-girl narratives, positing women excel at male standards but better; it seemed credible via feminist ideology but misled by ignoring sex diff... A recent study on Disney animating feminizing male characters propped up the assumption of successful feminization; it generated beliefs in demographic shifts making male-centric stories obsolete. The study analyzed 350 films from 2014-2017, defining female-led as women listed first in billing blocks, press notes or credits, claiming outperformance like $586M vs $514M for $100M+ budgets; cri... The study claimed films passing the Bechdel Test outperformed those that failed, with all $1B+ films since 2012 passing it, propping up beliefs in representation as key to success. ...and 17 more	propagation Feminization spread through institutional dynamics where women reached critical mass, creating vetoes that pushed products toward great-because-girl via status games and moral signaling. propagation Moralized status games in Hollywood propagated the assumption, elevating correct belief over storytelling, amplified by publishing's 80% female dominance drying up the male book pipeline. propagation Deadline published the study results, amplifying claims of female-led outperformance to Hollywood decision-makers. policy DEI initiatives at studios contributed to more female leads, as asserted by the report. policy Disney canceled The Acolyte after one season, a $100 million institutional decision amid backlash against its diverse and queer elements. policy Hollywood productions instituted extra security for actors like Kaitlyn Dever due to perceived toxic fan threats. ...and 18 more
Anti-Police Activism Cuts Homicides emerging Reducing police presence through anti-police activism will lower violence and homicide rates in Black communities.	The code of the streets arises from alienation and lack of faith in police seen as not protecting inner-city Black residents, propping up beliefs that police withdrawal would reduce bravado culture... Ongoing failure to impose public order via low homicide clearance rates in African-American communities incentivizes self-help bravado violence as retaliation and pre-emption, contradicting beliefs... Social stereotypes about violence in descendants-of-slaves communities are relatively accurate, reinforcing high-homicide equilibria, yet elite narratives treat them as baseless racism. Ruling class promoted the belief that reducing rule of law would help African Americans; it generated sub-belief that protests against law enforcement were justified. ...and 33 more	propagation Anti-police activism spread through BLM riots and protests, leading to police withdrawal from high-risk confrontations. propagation Contemporary academe memory-holes substantial portions of Martin Luther King’s speeches critiquing moral failings in African-American communities. propagation Ruling class decision spread the assumption starting in 2014 via elite consensus on BLM. policy Post-Ferguson and George Floyd activism pressured police de-policing of Black communities, reducing presence and clearance efforts based on assumptions of police harmfulness. policy Police departments informally enacted reduced traffic enforcement against black drivers starting a few days after George Floyd's death on May 25, 2020. policy De-policing initiatives during the George Floyd era and post-Ferguson reduced traffic enforcement, based on assumptions that police were the primary road danger. ...and 57 more
Race-IQ Inquiry Must Be Silenced contested Open discussion and research on race differences in IQ are so dangerous that they justify censorship, institutional bans, or self-imposed ignorance to	The argument that race-IQ research fosters racism and self-fulfilling prophecies seemed credible due to fears of historical stereotypes reviving Jim Crow, but is misleading as stereotypes arise fro... Textbooks on intelligence propped up acceptance of the IQ gap while the taboo suppressed causal inquiry; quotes confirm a 1 SD difference between black and white averages, generating sub-belief tha... Belief that race provides no genetic basis for cognitive differences, making racial IQ gaps environmental only; propped by denial of heritability data, generating sub-belief that stating gaps is ra... Chomsky's theory of language as innate human instinct, challenged by Bach using racial cognitive data; assumption ignores group differences in development rates. ...and 74 more	propagation Self-identified liberals propagate the taboo through rhetoric framing race-IQ inquiry as unseemly or obscene, akin to a fetish rather than empirical pursuit. propagation Media like the New York Times and intellectuals enforce social pressure by rejecting truths on race differences while championing truth in other contexts. propagation Media outlets like Boston Globe and New York Times framed factual statements on race and IQ as scandalous racist claims, suppressing direct quotes. policy IRBs should enact prior restraint by rejecting proposed research on race-IQ to prevent harm outweighing benefits, as argued by Horgan. policy Censorship debates reflect institutional pressures to avoid race-IQ research. policy A 2023 Hastings Center Report paper by 19 authors recommended higher evidentiary standards for hereditarian research and a very strong presumption against its being conducted, funded, or published. ...and 113 more
Epigenetics Transmits Ancestral Trauma emerging Environmental stresses and traumas are transmitted across multiple human generations via heritable epigenetic modifications.	Epigenetics was initially credible for explaining cellular differentiation via DNA modifications like methylation, but was misleadingly extended to claim transgenerational inheritance of environmen... Rodent studies like stressed mother rats producing stressed offspring were cited as proof of epigenetic inheritance but are fully explained by behavioral transmission via reduced maternal care, not... Influential rodent study Franklin et al. (2010) claimed epigenetic transmission of early stress across generations but relied on researcher degrees of freedom including multiple tests, post-hoc sli... Dutch Hunger Winter studies suggested prenatal adversity alters DNA methylation transgenerationally but associations are explained by selective survival of embryos, not epigenetic programming. ...and 29 more	propagation Epigenetics spread beyond biology into popular and social-scientific narratives as justification for 'inherited trauma' and 'ancestral stress,' dovetailing with political claims about lingering imp... propagation Flawed rodent studies and noisy human observations are endlessly recycled in pop-science discussions of inherited trauma without scrutiny of mechanisms or replication. propagation Mainstream media spread claims through attention-grabbing headlines linking epigenetics to intergenerational trauma. Literary agents and editors favored sensational stories over prosaic molecular f... policy Pioneer Fund supported 1950s-1960s government committees for anti-immigration grants and genetics research, funding opposition to civil rights desegregation via Mississippi Sovereignty Commission. ...and 14 more
Learning Styles Improve Instruction Outcomes strong Matching teaching methods to students' preferred learning styles such as visual, auditory, or kinesthetic enhances learning outcomes.	The learning styles hypothesis claimed preferences like visual or auditory modes could be matched to instruction for better results, credible due to intuitive appeal and early popularity, but wrong... A sub-belief held that learner preferences drove method choice, but evidence showed content type matters more, like diagrams for spatial tasks. The matching hypothesis posits students learn better when instruction matches their preferred modality like VARK (visual, auditory, read/write, kinesthetic), categorized by self-reports; it seemed ... A key aspect of the matching hypothesis is a crossover interaction where matched instruction benefits one style group but a different modality benefits another; this seemed reasonable as rare but v... ...and 44 more	propagation The assumption spread through educational industries and teacher training, leading to widespread adoption in lesson planning. propagation Teacher education textbooks propagated the assumption by stating matching optimizes outcomes, spreading it through educator training despite cognitive science critiques. propagation Meta-analyses like Visible Learning MetaX averaged d=0.40 by mixing matching and correlational studies, spreading apparent support through research summaries. policy School lesson plans were designed around learning styles, wasting instructional time based on the debunked matching hypothesis. policy Teaching to perceived learning styles became common practice in education to boost academic success. policy Teachers' instructional decisions differentiated lessons by assumed learning styles like visual or auditory to reach different learners, based on the theory. ...and 49 more
Implicit Bias Test Predicts Discrimination contested The Implicit Association Test measures unconscious racial bias that causes discriminatory behavior.	The IAT used reaction times to paired categories like race and good/bad words, seeming to tap subconscious bias credibly via speed differences, but unreliable as scores vary hugely on repeats and f... Sub-belief that implicit associations cause discrimination was wrong, as reaction times don't link to actions and may reflect societal treatment expectations. Early IAT claims of detecting unconscious bias in 80-90% of people were propped by reaction-time data, spawning sub-beliefs in its power to reveal prejudice driving behavior; it misled because asso... The Implicit Association Test paired Black and white faces with positive and negative words for sorting by race and valence; it seemed credible when participants like the author struggled more with... ...and 43 more	propagation The idea spread via academic obsession in 90s grad programs, media, and even presidential debates, despite scrutiny gaps. propagation Media headlines propagated the assumption by implying implicit bias from IAT literally kills Black patients through microaggressions. propagation Implicit bias spread widely among psychologists over nearly two decades by 2016, with many like the author tired of constant discussion. policy Universities implemented mandatory unconscious bias workshops based on IAT evidence, often costing $1,000 to $5,000 per session. policy Clinton proposed dedicating first-budget funds to combat implicit bias in policing due to its fatal consequences. policy Implicit bias training programs were implemented in public and private institutions based on IAT evidence framing racism as measurable individual unconscious bias. ...and 50 more
Trauma Lodges in Body Tissues contested Traumatic experiences embed in the body and tissues, causing ongoing harm relieved by somatic processing.	Belief that trauma embeds in body tissues seemed credible via vivid anecdotes, but false as no literal or figurative lodging occurs. Sub-belief in processing via body or talk as cure overlooks extinction through benign exposure, a simpler learning mechanism. Van der Kolk cited trauma encoding in viscera, causing emotions, autoimmune disorders, and muscular problems, seeming credible from clinical observations but questioned as oversimplifying brain-bod... Proponents argued body stores trauma in tension patterns affecting brain self-representation, seeming reasonable from bodywork testimonies but lacking clear mechanisms. ...and 15 more	propagation The book spread through bestseller status and clinician adoption, shifting Western views on psychiatric illness toward holistic body treatments like yoga and EMDR. propagation Bodyworkers propagated via client testimonies of releasing 'emotional energy' stuck in body, aligning with van der Kolk and Gabor Mate. propagation The book spread the assumption through popular influence in trauma therapy discussions despite criticism. policy Official guidelines now forbid CISD after studies showed it failed to prevent PTSD and sometimes worsened symptoms. policy NICE and VA guidelines designated PE and CPT as first-line PTSD therapies, mandating their use in public health systems. policy Trauma-informed care programs enacted widely based on ACE findings and body-trauma link, emphasizing somatic practices. ...and 11 more
Facilitated Communication Reveals Hidden Abilities strong Facilitators enable non-verbal individuals with autism to spell coherent messages on keyboards, unveiling normal intelligence.	The technique claimed minor hand support allowed pointing to letters for communication, credible via apparent eloquence, but false as facilitators drove the output. Reports claimed clients with moderate or severe mental retardation communicated fluently through facilitated communication. This seemed credible based on observed typing but was wrong because exper... Prior studies and reports propped up facilitated communication by claiming validity in case assessments, but this experimental analysis contradicted them through message-author tests. FC seemed credible based on level two quantitative descriptive data, level three qualitative data, and level four anecdotal reports of coherent output without authorship testing, generating sub-bel... ...and 6 more	propagation Spread through caregivers, nurses, and teachers in clinical settings, promising hidden capabilities in non-verbal patients. propagation FC spread through peer-reviewed journals publishing level two, three, and four evidence, systematic reviews, narrative reviews, ancestry searches, author contacts, and materials submitted by ISAAC ... propagation FC spread through anecdotal reports, testimonials, and descriptive studies despite lack of controlled research. Proponents continued claims without peer-reviewed authorship studies after 2014. policy SLPs must evaluate techniques per ASHA Code of Ethics and warn against FC use. Clients should be informed of risks and directed to empirically supported alternatives. policy Disability activists fight to eliminate Section 14(c) of the Fair Labor Standards Act, which allows sub-minimum wage employment for severely disabled workers in sheltered workshops, based on the in... ...and 5 more
3-Cueing System Helps Kids Learn to Read strong Children learn to read the same way they acquire spoken language, by guessing words from contextual, semantic, and syntactic cues rather than systemat	The 3-Cueing System rested on the misleading belief that reading mirrors spoken language acquisition, an evolved instinct, ignoring that writing is a recent cultural invention requiring explicit ph... This generated sub-beliefs that phonics was unnecessary drudgery and context-guessing built true comprehension, both debunked as children failed to decode accurately. Whole language, balanced literacy, and reading recovery rested on the belief that reading is natural like speech. Kids would guess words from context, pictures, or what made sense. This seemed cred... Boutique studies confirmed phonics superiority for most kids over whole language. Yet teachers resisted because phonics felt boring. Macro NAEP data vindicated phonics. ...and 26 more	propagation The idea spread as a trendy pedagogical approach in schools, promoted through teacher training and curricula under 'balanced literacy,' despite contrasts with established linguistics. propagation The assumption spread through teacher training and school programs for nearly a century. It intensified in the early 2000s. Teachers discouraged alphabetic decoding in favor of guessing. propagation Classroom posters and prompts spread the assumption by instructing students to get meaning from pictures, skip words, use context, or attend to first letters. policy Public school reading programs adopted 3-cueing over phonics, embedding it in instructional practices that prioritized guessing strategies. policy Schools adopted whole language and balanced literacy as standard curricula. Federal funding supported related research. Recent shifts mandate phonics in many states. policy School reading programs adopted three-cueing as core strategy, incompatible with systematic phonics, used widely in curricula like Reading Recovery. ...and 40 more
There Are Five Stages of Grief strong Grief universally progresses through denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and acceptance in sequence.	The model cited anecdotal observations from dying patients but lacked empirical support, conceptual rigor, or utility, generating beliefs in linear progression that stigmatized non-conformers. Bowlby/Parkes and Kübler-Ross theories propped up the assumption of orderly progression through stages; seemed credible as widely generalized to losses but lacked empirical test, generating sub-bel... Jacobs' synthesis and diagram of stages (disbelief, yearning, anger, depression, acceptance) made it seem reasonable for normal bereavement; misleading as study found disbelief not initial dominant... The five stages model relied on interviews with terminally ill patients, not bereaved individuals, seeming credible from Kübler-Ross's observations but misleading as it claimed universality for gri... ...and 11 more	propagation Media like movies, TV, and books amplified it culturally, while nearly half of clinicians endorsed it despite researcher critiques. propagation Stage theory spread through medical education, physician endorsement, and institutional websites like National Cancer Institute. propagation Theory generalized via publications to children's reactions to separation, adults' marital separation, clinical staff reactions to patient deaths. policy Medical education curricula incorporated Kübler-Ross model as standard teaching on grief. policy Clinical practice and psychoeducation use the model as a guideline, leading to prescriptive application in support for the bereaved. policy Health-care professionals prescribe stages prescriptively in practice, guiding intervention and assessment of bereaved persons. ...and 17 more
Stereotype Threat Impairs Performance contested Reminding people of negative group stereotypes subtly causes them to underperform on relevant tasks like math.	Built on experiments showing identity primes hurt performance, seemingly credible but non-replicable, contrasting with robust stereotype accuracy findings. 1995 Steele-Aronson study claimed Black students at Stanford closed the gap with whites when test framed as problem-solving not intelligence diagnostic; seemed credible with large effect but relied... 2005 Johns, Schmader, Martens study claimed teaching women about stereotype threat mitigated gender math gap; cited as influential intervention but failed rigorous replication. Stereotype threat rested on studies showing high-performing Black students and women underperform when reminded of negative stereotypes; it generated sub-beliefs that this explained achievement gap... ...and 7 more	propagation It proliferated in academia as a dominant research area around 2005, driven by political messaging on stereotypes undermining achievement. propagation Stereotype threat spread as counter to The Bell Curve via academic acclaim, media appeal to political left, and research mania. propagation Stereotype threat spread through alignment with personal intuitions and experiences, overriding data. policy Stereotype threat research informed US Supreme Court briefs on inequality and group differences. policy Interventions based on stereotype threat, like reframing tests or teaching about it, aimed to close gender and racial academic gaps. policy Cited in amicus brief to U.S. Supreme Court for admissions or similar policies. ...and 15 more
Transference Drives Psychotherapy emerging Clients unconsciously project past figures' feelings onto therapists, a core mechanism resolvable for cure in psychodynamic therapy.	Psychoanalytic theory claimed unconscious redirection of past feelings, credible narratively but empirically scarce, undermined by lack of outcome links. The Anna O. case seemed credible as a dramatic cornerstone showing transference-love from patient to therapist, generating sub-beliefs in repetition-logic and past projections as central; it was mi... Psychoanalysis repetition-logic, assuming past repeats in present transference, propped up the concept as essential; Shlien disputes it as fiction ignoring normal responses to current therapist beh... Transference as unconscious repetition of past patterns toward therapist seemed credible per Freud and followers; it generated sub-belief that TI is mutative mechanism for change, but studies show ... ...and 17 more	propagation It persists as cornerstone in psychodynamic psychotherapies descended from Freud. propagation Transference gripped professionals and public through psychoanalytic literature, becoming ubiquitous in psychodynamic systems despite contradictions on whether unique or universal. propagation Psychoanalytic founders promoted transference as distinguishing professionals from paraprofessionals, marking those 'in the know' via literature emphasizing it as sine qua non. policy Short-term Psychoanalytic Psychotherapy incorporating transference work was implemented as a treatment arm in the UK-based IMPACT randomized controlled trial for adolescents with depression, alloca... policy Training programs and professional standards emphasized formal credentials based on the assumption. policy The Trucking Action Plan included $57 million in DOT funding to states for CDL processing, waivers, and toolkits, leading to over 876,000 CDLs issued since January 2021 and doubled issuances in ear... ...and 11 more
Rising Diagnoses Signal Mental Illness Epidemic contested Sharp increases in mental health diagnoses among children reflect a genuine surge in the prevalence of mental disorders.	DSM diagnostic expansions, like adding Asperger’s syndrome, seemed credible as good-faith responses to clinicians' pleas for services for milder cases but misleadingly broadened categories, raising... Lack of biomarkers for mental illnesses propped up unchecked diagnosis by making assertions unfalsifiable, generating downstream beliefs that subjective reports alone confirm disorders like ADHD or... Goodhart’s Law was cited to explain school incentives but underpinned belief in real surges by making diagnosis a target metric detached from true prevalence. Claims data showed publicly insured children with any mental health/neurodevelopmental diagnosis rose from 10.7% in 2010 to 16.5% in 2019, adjusted risk difference 6.7 points; seemed credible as mu... ...and 22 more	propagation Media like the New York Times propagated the assumption by framing rising diagnoses as evidence of unwell children and schools as problems, amplifying calls for more interventions. propagation Social contagion spread symptom narratives through peer imitation and memification, akin to fashion trends or Werther effect suicides, accelerating diagnosis adoption beyond incentives. propagation National survey reported 25% of children diagnosed with mental health, behavioral, or developmental disorder, fueling concerns cited in the study. policy School funding policies linked to test scores incentivized diagnosing disabilities to exclude low performers or provide accommodations, enacted in various U.S. regions to boost overall marks. policy Mental Health Parity Act and Affordable Care Act provisions enacted to address mental illness stigma and access, based on belief in widespread underdiagnosis and rising need. policy Health Secretary ordered independent review into rising mental health demand, treating it as genuine surge needing more support. ...and 24 more
System 1 Thinking Causes Irrational Violence contested Human errors, biases, and violence stem from fast System 1 thinking that can be corrected by deliberate System 2 reflection.	The Gap experiment was cited as evidence of omission neglect, where unstated implications are ignored due to System 1; it seemed credible as a framing effect but was misleading because it activated... Kahneman's System 1/2 duality propped up beliefs in inherent cognitive laziness and fixable biases via reflection; downstream, it generated sub-beliefs that violence is fleeting System 1 impulse. Omission neglect was argued as System 1 failure to reflect on implied facts like Gap keeping profits; credible from ratings flip but wrong as it ignored experimenter framing cues. Daniel Kahneman's System 1 (fast, intuitive) vs System 2 (slow, analytical) distinction was repurposed by Ludwig to argue expressive violence is System 1, not instrumental System 2; it seemed credi... ...and 19 more	propagation The assumption spread through behavioral economics seminars, books like Thinking Fast and Slow, and Ludwig's gun violence analysis, influencing policy via academic consensus. propagation Conversational pragmatics and Gricean norms in experiments reinforced the model by violating social expectations, priming moral judgment over literal calculation. propagation Media reviews like Gladwell's in The New Yorker spread the idea that violence is mostly expressive, challenging deterrence assumptions. policy Becoming A Man program was promoted based on System 2 reflection to prevent teen violence escalation, enacted in interventions targeting automatic responses. policy Mass incarceration in late twentieth century was enacted based on instrumental violence assumption, focusing on deterrence through longer sentences. policy Government anti-poverty social programs were enacted to reduce deprivation and thereby violence, starting from liberal policies in the late 20th century. ...and 24 more
Microaggressions Cause Mental Health Harm contested Microaggressions cause harm and have negative impacts on health and mental health, as inferred from correlations in nonexperimental studies.	Microaggression scholarship relies on nonexperimental studies reporting mere correlations to conclude that microaggressions cause harm to health and mental health, despite this being a basic statis... The assumption that simple correlations prove causation underpins microaggression research, ignoring confounders, reverse causation, or third variables, which made it seem credible amid ideological... Microaggression research conflates self-reported perceptions of slights with actual microaggressive behaviors, treating subjective experiences as objective racial harms; this seemed credible via pr... Studies make causal claims of harm (e.g., eroding well-being, causing trauma) from correlational self-report data; this appeared reasonable through persuasive language like 'impact' and 'erode' but... ...and 30 more	propagation Peer review processes in academic journals fail to reject microaggression papers committing the correlation-causation fallacy, allowing flawed scholarship to proliferate. propagation Microaggression scholarship spreads via peer-reviewed journals despite flaws, insulated by framing as 'anti-racist' where scientific criticism is dismissed as racism. propagation Circular logic propagates unfalsifiability: skepticism of specific behaviors as microaggressions is labeled 'invalidation' or 'gaslighting,' confirming the framework's harm. policy Microaggression reviews conclude with clinical implications and advice for therapists based on unproven causal harms, influencing mental health practices. policy Training programs to detect microaggressions were enacted in clinical and counseling contexts based on concerns about minoritized sensitivities and promoted scientific establishment. policy Campuses adopted practices like microaggressions reporting blogs and public shaming for verbal slights, treating them as institutional offenses warranting intervention. ...and 31 more
Anti-Bias Training Works emerging Diversity, equity, and inclusion trainings effectively reduce bias and discriminatory behavior.	Cherry-picked studies claiming diversity benefits were cited to justify trainings, generating sub-beliefs in their necessity; misleading because systematic reviews found no evidence of effectivenes... Elites propped up DEI with the belief that it was a mild correction for past discrimination without harming white men, dismissing any affected as mediocre; this ignored generational impacts and bre... DEI relied on the sub-belief that gatekeepers would favor diverse hires regardless of ideological alignment, but actually prioritized progressive values over mere identity. Antiracism argued passive non-discrimination supports racism, seeming credible due to real systemic inequities but generating sub-belief that hesitation equals complicity, ignoring reactance. ...and 81 more	propagation Private sector offerings spread the assumption through high-priced workshops presented as pseudoscience-like certainties. propagation DEI spread rapidly through institutional mandates across American life starting in 2014, reshaping hiring in media, academia, and entertainment. propagation The assumption propagated through liberal media denial, framing white male complaints as invalid despite data on hiring shifts. policy Diversity mandates enacted post-2014 targeted professional hiring, disproportionately affecting white male millennials while sparing older generations. policy Mandatory corporate diversity training required participation to combat bias, based on anti-racism assumption it dismantles prejudice. policy Diversity statements became required for academic hiring, enforcing active anti-racism commitment. ...and 140 more
Partisan Activism Safe for Academic Organizations contested Academic organizations like the AAUP can engage in uncritical partisan politics using the cover of academic freedom without inviting harmful external	AAUP justified DEI endorsement despite little evidence of effectiveness, undefined terms like diversity and equity, and academia's poor record including dissenters from progressive views. AAUP supported divestment and boycotts invoking Israeli 'genocide,' despite ICJ refusal to rule on it and no international court indictments for genocide in the Gaza War. The 1915 AAUP statement warned that academic freedom used as shelter for partisanship would lead to unqualified others intervening harmfully, a foundation the modern AAUP ignored. Public distrust in higher education stems from right-wing smears by figures like Ron DeSantis and Chris Rufo rather than real indoctrination or ideological skews; Wolfson claimed most faculty work ... ...and 16 more	propagation AAUP spread progressive positions through public statements and chapter votes, advancing partisan agendas like DEI, boycotts, and divestment. propagation Academic boycotts endorsed by AAUP function in practice to justify progressive-inspired actions, as no academic societies have boycotted leftist or Islamist regimes. propagation The assumption spread through AAUP emails to members, public endorsements of DEI and boycotts, lawsuits, and Wolfson's interviews defending the organization's approach as non-partisan protection of... policy AAUP endorsed using DEI criteria for faculty evaluation, despite evidence issues. policy AAUP reversed longstanding opposition to academic boycotts, enabling calls to shun scholars from targeted countries. policy Rutgers AAUP demanded university divestment from companies doing business with Israel. ...and 27 more
Social Media Safe for Adolescents emerging Social media is a reasonably safe consumer product for children and adolescents even when used heavily.	The argument that correlation between heavy social media use and depression/anxiety does not prove causation seemed credible due to possible reverse causality or third variables like parenting, but... Studies like Hancock et al. (2022) and Ferguson (2024) claiming trivial associations propped up the safety assumption by blending all digital tech, all well-being outcomes, boys and adults; focusin... Puberty marks a sensitive period of intense brain plasticity where repeated social media use permanently sculpts neural circuits, undermining beliefs in harmless digital play. Self-regulation ability improves steadily through adolescence until the mid-20s, with puberty's changes most intense and permanent, contradicting assumptions of early teen maturity for online risks. ...and 39 more	propagation The assumption spread through academic debates and public testimony, with dismissive researchers and Meta's Zuckerberg emphasizing correlation != causation since 2017. propagation Meta propagated doubt by conducting high-quality internal causal research like Project Mercury but keeping it hidden, only revealed via whistleblowers and lawsuits. propagation Peer pressure created a collective action trap, with children claiming 'everyone else has one' to compel parental access, perpetuating widespread early adoption. policy Australia enacted age restrictions on social media access based on recognizing harms, contrasting the prior safety assumption held by platforms and some scientists. policy Platforms' self-imposed minimum age of 13 allowed children to fabricate ages and open accounts, enabling addictive features without parental oversight until recent laws. policy Germany maintained no legally defined minimum age for social media use and no platform age verification requirements, relying on ignored self-regulation. ...and 51 more
Primitive Communism Was Ideal strong Foraging societies practiced a primitive communism representing humanity's natural species being, which modern communism scales up to eliminate oppres	Marx's theory rested on the belief that primitive communism in foraging societies revealed humanity's 'species being,' seeming credible as an evolutionary baseline but misleading because those soci... The principle 'from each according to his abilities, to each according to his needs' appeared sound in happy families providing communal warmth but generated the false sub-belief that it scales bey... Foraging bands around Dunbar's Number (150 souls) were cited as scalable models of communality evolved over human history, but this overlooked that such webs of intimate connections do not scale fa... Lewis Henry Morgan's data on early social evolution seemed credible as evolutionary evidence from kinship studies but was misleading as it romanticized primitive societies as communist without acco... ...and 13 more	propagation Marxist theory propagated the assumption through academic and intellectual channels, romanticizing foraging primitive communism as humanity's natural state despite historical evidence. propagation The assumption spread via the 'wish-fulfilment power of this time will be different,' rationalized despite repeated historical failures, pulling those unexposed to communism's horrors. propagation Academic congresses and book series like World Anthropology spread Marxist anthropology through pre-congress paper exchanges and multilingual discussions focused on primitive communism. policy Communist regimes enacted policies scaling primitive communism principles to national levels, imposing collectivism that required violence to enforce and led to oppression rather than liberation. policy Maoist China's divorce policies were enacted based on The Origin's view of primitive communism undermining patriarchy and property. ...and 10 more
Blue Zones Confer Exceptional Longevity emerging Certain regions known as Blue Zones around the world feature significantly higher rates of centenarians and exceptional longevity due to unique lifest	Vital statistics from Blue Zones regions were cited as evidence of significantly longer lifespans and many centenarians, seeming credible due to Buettner's fieldwork but misleading because of shodd... Demographic data on Blue Zones showed high rates of centenarians and super-centenarians, seeming credible from government records, but was misleading due to lack of birth certificates, hidden death... Okinawa's Blue Zone status relied on claims of many over-100s, but a 2010 Japanese review found 82 percent were dead, generating sub-belief in vegetable and sweet potato diets despite Okinawans eat... Scientific interest in remarkable longevity rested on claims of high vegetable intake, strong social connections, and genetic markers as drivers, which seemed credible from clustered age records in... ...and 6 more	propagation The assumption spread through a Netflix show and related media, amplified by a newsletter column that initially covered it positively. propagation Blue Zone myths spread through cookbooks, Netflix documentaries, and lifestyle books touting plant-based diets, wine, and purpose as longevity secrets. propagation Media and tourists promote Blue Zones without skepticism, sustaining myths in poor regions for economic gain via yoga retreats and visits. policy State-specific introduction of birth certificates in the US served as policy exposing the assumption, associating with 69-82% fall in supercentenarian records due to better verification. policy Blue Zones Project enacted environmental and policy changes in US communities with policymakers to promote Power 9, such as optimizing the Life Radius within 5 miles of home for natural movement an... ...and 4 more
Bank Deregulation Modernizes Finance contested Deregulating banking through laws encouraging mergers and failures would consolidate and strengthen the sector for a modern economy.	Policymakers and industry viewed the transition to a capital markets-driven economy with credit cards, apps, and ATMs as justifying bank consolidation, overlooking local banks' continued superiorit... Belief that self-interest generates private market regulation made deregulation seem reasonable; it generated sub-beliefs that government intervention weakens markets and firms police themselves. Geographic limits were justified to prevent bankers from choosing inaccessible sites to deter note redemptions and to avoid excessive concentration of financial power; this seemed credible politica... Previous research by Charles Calomiris showed early 20th century restrictions destabilized banking via small undiversified banks; this article extends to efficiency losses from blocked expansion. ...and 12 more	propagation The deregulatory assumption propagated via alignment of the banking lobby with Reagan-Bush GOP politics and anti-government sentiment among bankers pressured by high interest rates post-New Deal. propagation Financial sector convinced policymakers through lobbying and campaign contributions. propagation Deregulatory mindset prevailed in regulatory agencies like the Fed. policy In the early 1980s, U.S. policymakers enacted a series of deregulatory laws designed to encourage bank failures and mergers in order to consolidate the banking sector. policy Fed refused to use Home Ownership and Equity Protection Act of 1994 authority to regulate predatory mortgage lending. policy The 1927 McFadden Act let states regulate national banks' branching, codifying restrictions; by 1975, 12 states banned branching entirely and no state allowed out-of-state acquisitions. ...and 26 more
Food Aid Would End Somalia Famine strong Delivering food shipments protected by international peacekeepers will feed Somalia's starving children and resolve the famine.	The moral principle 'feed the hungry' served as core belief, seeming self-evident and generating expectations of easy relief; it misled by ignoring gunmen who seized and sold aid. Romantic primitivism portrayed uncivilized natives as possessing superior virtues akin to Rousseau's natural man, cited to justify compassion; Somalis maximally untainted by civilization proved vio... UN claimed 80% of aid shipments looted to justify intervention. Statistic treated as fact but origins untraceable. Aid agencies and Pakistani commander contested it as exaggerated or fabricated. Some top UNOSOM I commanders viewed famine scope exaggerated to justify Somalia as experiment for conflict resolution. ...and 10 more	propagation Aid advocates and media spread the assumption by publicizing compassion for famine victims while evading the reality of armed anarchy. propagation UN Security Council Resolution 751 created UNOSOM I, leading to US-backed escalation under Chapter VII authority. propagation International pressure led warlords to ceasefire allowing UN aid, spreading assumption military protection would secure delivery. policy US military initiated armed food relief operation in Somalia in December 1992, deploying troops to protect aid distribution under the famine-ending assumption. policy UN Security Council Resolution 794 on 3 December 1992 authorized use of all necessary means to establish secure environment for humanitarian relief operations in Somalia. policy Operation Restore Hope was launched in December 1992 under President George H.W. Bush as part of a UN effort to use troops for famine relief. ...and 20 more
Affirmative Action Causes No Reverse Discrimination contested Civil rights protections and affirmative action do not discriminate against white people.	The belief that civil rights protections spurred by the 1960s Civil Rights Act did not result in discrimination against white men; this seemed credible to rectify past denial of access to minoritie... Belief in pervasive systemic racism against blacks propped up the assumption, generating sub-belief that colleges must counter it even if data showed bias elsewhere. Elites cited historical power of white ancestors to argue that current whites deserve discrimination and cannot be racism victims. This seemed credible in civil rights reinterpretation but misled b... The 1978 Bakke decision justified discriminating against whites in college admissions for diverse discussions. It ruled reparations unconstitutional but allowed diversity benefits that seemed credi... ...and 132 more	propagation New York Times news section spread the assumption through articles using sneer quotes for reverse discrimination and framing white victimhood as a political belief. propagation Media treated admissions whistleblowers as villains rather than heroes. propagation Few investigative reporters pursued racial bias in admissions. policy Civil Rights Act of 1964, with protections beginning in the 1960s, was cited as not causing discrimination against whites, leading to affirmative action in college admissions and jobs. policy Diversity, equity, and inclusion offices in federal agencies enforced affirmative action tenets until Trump ordered their dismantling upon taking office. policy Colleges enacted secret racial preferences in admissions without public data disclosure. ...and 223 more
Oliver Sacks' Stories Were Accurate strong Oliver Sacks' published case studies accurately depicted real patients and neurological truths.	Sacks' case studies cited specific patient examples like the man who mistook his wife for a hat, autistic twins with primes, and aphasic patients detecting lies; these seemed credible as New Yorker... Sacks' books like Awakenings presented patient recoveries and syndromes as factual neurology, seeming credible as best-sellers and movie material but propped by fabrications where he displaced his ... Sacks depicted patients with dramatically higher IQs and abilities than real, cited as evidence of neurological insights but actually embellished versions of himself. Sacks' book relied on case studies he admitted were partly fabricated, misleading readers on neurological realities; this generated sub-beliefs in exotic brain disorders as commonly observed. ...and 4 more	propagation The New Yorker used its star-making machinery and prestige to spread Sacks' and Gladwell's confabulations to elite audiences, neuroscientists, psychologists, and general readers. propagation Sacks' books spread as best-sellers and Hollywood movies like Awakenings, establishing his accounts as authoritative neurology. propagation Sacks' work inspired a genre of case studies emphasizing empathy, propagating the idea through literature and medicine. policy Medical schools enacted curriculum decisions to assign Sacks's books, basing neurology and humanities training on his fabricated patient stories. policy US medical schools incorporated narrative medicine into curricula, emulating Sacks' style based on his case studies presented as factual. ...and 4 more
Ending Immigration Restrictions Would Not Cause Chaos emerging Reversing Trump-era immigration restrictions would increase border crossings modestly without provoking political crisis.	Belief that Latinos demand open borders and stronger enforcement alienates them; seemed credible from elite interactions with activists but wrong as ordinary voters reacted against surge. Assumption of Zeroth Amendment civil right to migrate based on Statue of Liberty sentiment; generated sub-belief that implications need not be considered. The assumption rested on the belief that border policy drives migration flows, ignoring data that the spike started in 2019 under Trump and ended in 2024 under Biden; this seemed credible from simp... The belief that U.S. border policy drives migration was propped up by public assumptions but generated sub-beliefs like policies guaranteeing low crossings; data showed other factors like violence ... ...and 43 more	propagation Great Awokening zeitgeist influenced Biden advisers to adopt lax policies via younger staff. propagation NYT shifted anti-realist after 2001 Republican pivot and 2009 Carlos Slim bailout. propagation The assumption spread through bipartisan agreement and media retrospectives that credited Trump for low crossings and blamed Biden for the surge. policy Biden pledges to treat unauthorized immigrants more humanely than Trump, reversing family separation backlash policies in 2021. policy Trump’s family separation policy was enacted in spring 2018 and promoted as a deterrent to family migration, but arrivals did not plunge afterward. policy Trump’s asylum restrictions at the border were implemented in 2019, after Supreme Court approval, based on the assumption they would deter crossings, but arrivals remained steady. ...and 79 more
Mississippi Miracle is Real contested Mississippi's rise in fourth-grade NAEP reading scores reflects real improvement.	Retention policy seemed credible as cause of bias because pre-2013 more third-graders advanced regardless of reading skill, diluting fourth-grade averages; it generated sub-belief that small fundin... NAEP fourth-grade reading jump from 49th to 8th propped up miracle claims but sub-beliefs ignored demographic baselines and cross-subject consistency. Eighth-grade scores dropping to 42nd in reading seemed to confirm bias but overlooked demographic-adjusted overall leadership. Belief that retention merely selects better test-takers ignored benefits of extra reading instruction time before grade 4, where students read to learn. ...and 10 more	propagation Skepticism spread through academic blogs and stats punditry, questioning the miracle as deviation from educational norms. propagation Critics spread the illusion narrative by emotionally opposing retention and selectively parsing data to claim gains achievable without it. propagation Media and expert articles spread the assumption via econometric models and rankings, calling it a miracle despite prior US education hoaxes. policy Literacy-Based Promotion Act enacted in Mississippi in 2013 required retention of failing third-grade readers and phonics instruction. policy 2013 Mississippi laws and 2015 third-grade retention policy were enacted despite skepticism, directly boosting test scores. policy Illusion claim fueled opposition to third-grade retention gates and ending social promotion in LBPA, sustaining ineffective practices despite Florida's prior success. ...and 11 more
Gifted Programs Shut Out Minorities contested Gifted programs shut out high-performing Black and Latino children from low-income families due to systemic flaws that districts can fix.	Assumption that gifted identification disparities result from systemic issues rather than cognitive test data propped up debates. It seemed credible via equity narratives but ignored published IQ e... National statistics showing 7.6% white participation in gifted programs versus 3.6% black, 4.6% Hispanic, and 1.8% English learner propped up the belief in systemic exclusion, alongside prior studi... District data revealed only 28% of gifted third graders were black or Hispanic despite 60% of students, with 13 schools having zero gifted students, generating sub-belief that referrals failed high... Biased identification methods like IQ and standardized tests were cited as objective but actually reflected norms of powerful groups, seeming credible via studies like Ford (2012) and generating su... ...and 52 more	propagation Media like the New York Times spread the assumption by framing gifted debates as shutting out minorities that districts can fix. propagation Academic publication in PNAS spread the assumption, with the significance section claiming systemic failure to identify qualified students explains minority underrepresentation in advanced K-12 pro... propagation Academic literature and Critical Race Theory spread the assumption by framing school practices as perpetuating systemic biases against underrepresented groups. policy New York City enacted early gifted testing at age 4 for public schools, based on assumptions of equal measurability across groups. policy Florida district enacted universal NNAT screening for all second graders in spring 2005, automatically referring scorers of 130+ (115+ for FRL/ELL) for IQ evaluation, based on belief that referrals... policy Current gifted identification processes relying on standardized tests and IQ scores were enacted in school districts, based on the assumption they unfairly exclude marginalized students. ...and 72 more
Iraq Invasion Would Stabilize Region strong Overthrowing Saddam Hussein would replace his government with a stable pro-US regime without causing chaos or fragmentation.	Cheney's 1994 interview quote explained risks of Iraq occupation: no Arab allies, volatile region, pieces of Iraq flying off; this was cited later as evidence he knew better, but ignored amid sub-b... Cheney's one percent doctrine held that a 1% chance of Saddam aiding al-Qaeda nukes must be treated as certainty, seeming credible post-9/11 but wrong as Iraq posed no such threat and invasion hit ... Pollack cited consistent Arab military ineffectiveness in four areas: tactical leadership, information management, weapons handling, and maintenance. This propped up beliefs in easy US victory and ... Policymakers ignored Iraq's history of tribal enmity among Sunnis, Shi’a, Kurds, and arbitrary borders, assuming a stable post-Saddam government could be imposed; this overlooked sub-beliefs in eas... ...and 16 more	propagation Neocons propagated the assumption through AEI and PNAC letter to Clinton calling for Saddam overthrow, funded by donor money shift from dull conservatism. propagation Pollack's book and analysis spread through military journals and policy circles. It shaped debates on national security and Iraq strategy before the 2003 invasion. propagation US media whipped up patriotic fervor pre-invasion and later spared neocons embarrassment, while politicians and pundits invested in neoconservative theories revived them amid 2014 chaos. policy US invaded Iraq in 2003 under Bush-Cheney, enacting overthrow of Saddam based on false stability assumptions and terror threat links. policy Pollack addressed US strategy for Iraq leading to war. His work influenced military planning for invasion and post-conflict efforts. policy The 2003 US invasion of Iraq was enacted based on assumptions of feasible occupation and stable regime change, leading to the 2008 SOFA for full withdrawal by 2011. ...and 23 more
Transgenderism Reveals True Inner Self emerging Sudden transgender and nonbinary identifications among youth represent authentic innate gender identities finally freed for expression.	The belief that transmania represented people finally free to reveal their true inner selves seemed credible when few over 40 claimed it during the 2013-2015 takeoff, implying youth discovered inna... Proponents cited unquestionable self-knowledge of transgender identity in teens, comparable to innate traits like being gay, Jewish, or Black; this generated sub-beliefs justifying medical interven... Trans promoters cite innate gender identity or being born in the wrong body as motivation for transition, seeming credible via prominent cases like Bruce Jenner; this generates sub-belief that all ... Gender dysphoria concepts separated identity from biology, but physiology and child outcomes contradict intervention efficacy. ...and 30 more	propagation Transmania spread rapidly through junior high schools during the Great Awokening, becoming a generational trend among youth. propagation The assumption spread through New York Times opinion journalism framing Supreme Court skepticism as 'blindness to transgender reality'. propagation Media prestige press hid autogynephilia concept from public, especially moody teenage girls, during 12 years of transmania starting 2013, framing trans as Good People via blanket coverage without s... policy Tennessee enacted a ban on 'sexual mutilation and poisoning of children' targeting gender-affirming medical procedures for minors, challenged federally on assumption grounds. policy Trans push since 2013 promoted innate identity narrative in media and activism, leading to reframing transgenderism as political rather than clinical issue denying AGP. policy Trends in child treatment shifted to affirmation without strong evidence, enacted in clinical guidelines. ...and 31 more
Trans Skepticism Causes Suicide contested Skepticism of transgender ideology drives trans people to suicide and equates to genocide.	Media promoted the belief that transgenders are fragile and suicide-prone unless affirmed, making doubt equivalent to genocide; this seemed credible through repetition but generated sub-beliefs tha... The claim that skepticism of transgender ideology causes suicides was promoted as genocidal, making affirmation mandatory to save fragile trans lives. This seemed credible via repeated media narrat... Expectations that early GR yields positive psychosocial outcomes like reduced depression, self-harm, and suicidality propped up the assumption. Short-term hopes and clinic promotions made it seem r... Psychiatric morbidity was downplayed as a confounder despite being common (20-80%) and a known suicide predictor. This sub-belief supported GR as primary solution, overlooking its role in elevated ... ...and 26 more	propagation Mainstream media spread the assumption by insisting on trans fragility and labeling doubt as genocide, pounding the ideology into young people's heads over a dozen years. propagation The assumption spread through media and activist narratives over a dozen years, framing trans skepticism as lethal and justifying retaliation against doubters. propagation Media outlets like CNN and New York Times reported on the event, highlighting the suspect's trans partner and ideology, fueling speculation on the link. policy Utah County DA's indictment includes victim targeting enhancement because Robinson selected Kirk due to beliefs about Kirk’s political expression on transgenderism. policy Good Law Project used the suicide surge claim to challenge the previous Health Secretary's decision ending puberty blocker prescriptions by private clinics for children with gender dysphoria. policy US medical organizations and states enacted policies endorsing gender-affirming care as standard based on the assumption, contrasting international bans in Sweden, Finland, France, and UK. ...and 24 more
Racial Statistics Unnecessary When Reporting on Crime emerging Effective reporting on crime does not require public acknowledgment of racial disparities in crime rates.	Cherry-picked statistics and incidents like Trayvon Martin, Michael Brown, and George Floyd misled the public. These propped up avoidance of racial crime realities and generated beliefs that crime ... Belief that media downplays black crime is a conservative myth. This countered evidence of selective coverage and justified ignoring interracial disparities. Assumption relied on police shootings of black men as the primary threat, ignoring that police kill around 400 yearly nationwide with one-third black, a rate lower than black crime rates would pred... Belief cited history of police racism to frame all disparities as unjust, propping up view that police ignore black victims; overlooked that black homicide victimization was six times whites and Hi... ...and 33 more	propagation National press produced silence on black-on-white crimes. Horrifying cases like the Charlotte light rail murder drew cricket chirps. propagation New York Times invoked Jim Crow exaggeration of black crime. This equated modern coverage concerns with 1898 white supremacist uprisings. propagation Protest movement spread the assumption through national convulsions and demands like resignations of entire police departments. policy Crime crackdowns need more per capita focus on black criminals. Blacks kill at rates an order of magnitude above whites, but taboo blocks this. policy ACLU and Justice Department lawsuits targeted departments for racially disparate enforcement stats arising from crime concentrations. policy Support for death penalty, three strikes laws, and trying youth as adults stemmed from racial perceptions, leading to world's highest imprisonment rate. ...and 37 more
Amyloid Causes Alzheimer's Disease contested Amyloid proteins are the primary cause of Alzheimer's disease, prompting a cascade of biochemical changes that lead to dementia.	The amyloid hypothesis held that amyloid proteins prompt a cascade of biochemical changes causing dementia; it seemed credible due to a dominant 2006 study later revealed as doctored, generating su... Amyloid hypothesis dominance stemmed from institutional acceptance on faith, propping up beliefs that anti-amyloid drugs would arrest decline; it misled by prioritizing amyloid over other factors l... The paper cites studies isolating amyloid-beta protein, cloning its precursor gene, and finding mutations like at codon 717 of APP associated with familial Alzheimer's, making amyloid deposition se... References to APP mRNA induction after stress or ischemia, and shared amyloid in Down syndrome and Alzheimer's, supported sub-belief that amyloid accumulation universally drives dementia across cases. ...and 44 more	propagation Supremacy of amyloid hypothesis created conformity pressure through grants, publications, and careers, making it easier to publish dubious science aligning with it. propagation Funders and institutional authorities enforced amyloid conformity via grants and reputations. propagation Publication in a top peer-reviewed journal like Science spread the amyloid cascade idea through academic citations, as shown by the extensive reference list of supporting studies. policy US regulators approved anti-amyloid antibody drugs based on amyloid hypothesis despite meager results. policy NIH and pharma funding prioritized amyloid clearance drugs based on cascade model originating from such papers. policy FDA accelerated approval pathway enacted since 1992 allows drugs for serious conditions using surrogate endpoints reasonably likely to predict clinical benefit, applied to anti-amyloid AD therapies. ...and 52 more
School Spending Closes Racial Gaps strong Racial gaps in school achievement are primarily caused by lower spending on black students, and increasing spending will narrow those gaps.	The Coleman Report was cited to justify spending, seeming credible as it measured achievement gaps; it was misleading because gaps held despite equal spending, generating sub-belief that even more ... Belief in environmental malleability propped up spending; wrong because it ignored genetics, leading to sub-belief in fixable subtle environments. The assumption relied on beliefs that discrimination, lack of school spending on blacks, and other environmental factors caused racial gaps in achievement. These seemed reasonable amid Jim Crow. Th... Blank Slate views of the 1960s propped up expectations of high IQ malleability through social change. Twin studies indicated high heritability instead. Anti-hereditarians offered no strong counter-... ...and 35 more	propagation Nice White Liberals obsessed with Closing the Gap propagated the assumption through 60 years of social and educational policy. propagation Elite American opinion spread the belief that blacks would rapidly close IQ gaps once Jim Crow ended, shaping policy expectations for generations. propagation Media and policy outlets like Vox promoted court-driven spending hikes as effective based on new NBER research, framing high US costs as justified for equity despite flat test scores. policy Great Society programs raised taxes and spending on black students, often more than whites, enacted from 1964 onward based on the gap-closing assumption. policy DC public boarding school sought budget hikes for more nights to isolate students from family influences, based on environmental fix assumption. policy The 1964 Civil Rights Act funded a major study explicitly based on the assumption that environmental factors like discrimination and spending gaps drove racial achievement differences. ...and 47 more
Gender Care Ethical for Dysphoric Kids emerging Gender-affirming medical interventions for children with gender dysphoria satisfy basic standards of medical ethics on risk versus benefit.	Judith Butler’s ideology of gender, separating it from biology, propped up pediatric gender medicine by providing sophistries that philosophers like Byrne unraveled; it seemed credible via academic... Gender-affirming care relied on evidence cited as supporting affirmation, but the report showed it flunks medical ethics 101 on risk/benefit; this generated sub-beliefs in routine puberty blockers ... Gender-affirming care was propped up by claims of medical necessity and lifesaving benefits, despite diagnosis based solely on subjective self-reports without objective markers and a natural histor... Endorsements relied on guidelines failing standards for evidence quality, with very low overall evidence on psychological outcomes, quality of life, or long-term health from puberty blockers, hormo... ...and 123 more	propagation Gender ideology spread rapidly among adolescent girls following cultural events like Caitlyn Jenner's public transition on Keeping Up with the Kardashians, fueling demand for affirming pediatric care. propagation The gender-affirming model spread widely as the dominant approach, influencing treatment for thousands despite lack of robust evidence. propagation U.S. medical associations propagated the assumption through endorsements of 'gender-affirming care' as safe and effective, leading to increased provision of interventions. policy Guidelines and practices allowed routine pharmacological and surgical interventions for pediatric gender dysphoria until international reversals restricted puberty blockers. policy Healthcare providers followed association endorsements by offering puberty blockers, cross-sex hormones, and surgeries to minors outside research settings. policy International guidance set puberty suppression at Tanner stage 2 (around age 14.5 pooled mean), cross-sex hormones post-suppression (age 16.2), surgery rare under 18. ...and 136 more
IQ Tests Are Inaccurate or Biased strong IQ testing is a pseudoscientific hoax that measures arbitrary puzzle-solving ability rather than genuine, hereditary intelligence predictive of life o	Lippmann argued IQ tests measured puzzle ability, not general intelligence or life success, seeming credible due to the field's youth but wrong as long-term data showed prediction. Lippmann claimed testers dogmatically asserted intelligence as innate and hereditary, propping up fears of caste but misleading as heritability evidence grew. Early IQ tests contained cultural biases like describing a crying Dutch girl or differences between president and king, seeming credible as initial efforts but misleading as proof of invalidity sin... IQ tests photograph class structure with better-off groups scoring higher, cited as evidence against measuring innate intelligence but ignores high scores by Jews and Asians. ...and 25 more	propagation Liberal pundits spread denial through media attacks like Lippmann's articles, echoed in 2025 as a popular conspiracy theory distrusting psychometrics. propagation Social pressure during the Great Awokening propagated denial by canceling Terman school names despite evidence. propagation Internet discourse spread IQ speculation about Musk, with guesses from Seth Abramson pegging 100-110 to Fox News at 155. policy Palo Alto middle school naming policy enforced denial by removing Termans for eugenics taint, rejecting alternatives over ethnic objections. policy U.S. used low IQ scores to deny immigrants entry, forcibly sterilize disabled people, and assign low scorers to combat roles. policy US Army enacted widespread intelligence testing during WWI to assign men to roles based on test scores equated to mental age. ...and 20 more
Places Drive Homicide Differences contested Differences in firearm homicide rates between adjacent neighborhoods are primarily caused by environmental features of places rather than differences	Ludwig cited adjacent Chicago neighborhoods South Shore and Greater Grand Crossing, where South Shore has half the murder rate despite proximity, as seeming credible evidence for place effects; it ... Ludwig argued gun violence arises from arguments interrupted by lack of eyes on the street, seeming reasonable for low-crime areas but misleading for high-crime zones with illegal guns. Assumption that truancy causes poor learning seemed intuitive but was wrong, as behind kids benefited least from mismatched content. Ludwig cited similar economic conditions, race, and ethnicity in adjacent Greater Grand Crossing and South Shore, yet twice the shootings in the former, as evidence against people differences and f... ...and 39 more	propagation Enthusiastic press in The Atlantic and New Yorker spread Ludwig's granular place-variation theory through reviews and interviews. propagation Social science avoids IQ/race discussions due to career risks, propagating environmental-only explanations. propagation Ludwig propagated the places theory through his academic book, leveraging his credentials as Crime Lab director to present it as a novel paradigm shift. policy Hot-spots policing directs more police resources to tiny violent blocks rather than uniform coverage or demographic patterns. policy Mass incarceration swept the country in the late twentieth century, based on deterrence for instrumental criminals rationally weighing prison costs. policy N.Y.P.D. stop-and-frisk in the 1990s targeted guns assuming instrumental crime, credited for drops but continued after 2013 federal ruling ended it. ...and 40 more
Economics Alone Drives Urban Decline emerging Population decline in major American cities stems primarily from economic shifts like factory closures and job losses rather than high murder rates.	Experts cited factories closing, manufacturing jobs departing south or abroad, and climate control enabling Sunbelt growth as main causes of urban decline; this overlooked murder rates above 2 per ... Experts cited factory closures, manufacturing jobs moving to the South or abroad, and air conditioning making other regions attractive as the primary drivers of urban population loss; these seemed ... Assumption held that population losses reflected only white flight from Black violence; data shows middle-class Blacks left high-murder cities like Chicago too. Shrinking cities literature cited deindustrialization from off-shoring, roboticization, and efficiencies as natural process undermining labor demand and causing inevitable decline. This seemed cred... ...and 13 more	propagation Most experts downplayed crime's role in population loss, viewing the connection as indirect despite data showing otherwise. propagation The view that economic changes alone drove city population declines spread among experts, making a direct crime link seem difficult to prove despite plausibility. propagation The assumption spread through shrinking cities academic literature, which framed urban decline as natural in the sense of autonomous economic forces largely beyond control of individual city managers. policy City managers adopted hands-off approaches treating decline as inevitable economic process beyond their control, limiting interventions against vacancy and abandonment. policy Place-based policies directing resources to low-income areas and people-based policies providing aid regardless of location were recommended to reverse decline based on agglomeration benefits. policy Baltimore's city growth plan was based on the assumption, committing to comprehensive violence reduction and 21st-century government via equitable investments. ...and 9 more
BLM Not Responsible for Homicide Spike emerging The spike in homicides in 2020 occurred started before George Floyd's death on May 25.	The NYT graph used a line graph plotting annual 2020 homicides as if all occurred on January 1, seeming credible for yearly trends but misleading on intra-year timing; it wrongly implied the 29% su... Sub-belief that police retreat during BLM protests caused no homicide surge, propped by annual aggregation ignoring May 25 timing, contradicted by weekly CDC data. The NYT graph cited a misplaced vertical line as evidence. It placed the line for May 25, 2020 between 2020 and 2021 to imply pre-Floyd surge. This generated the sub-belief that the racial reckonin... The New York Times line graph plotted annual 2020 homicide totals as occurring on January 1, which seemed credible for broad trends but misled by obscuring the post-May 25 surge revealed by CDC wee... ...and 22 more	propagation The assumption spread through NYT's publication to 11 million subscribers, using a graph in a major article on police killings without immediate correction despite social media criticism. propagation The New York Times spread the assumption through an anniversary graph. It misrepresented timing to suggest homicide surge preceded Floyd. propagation The New York Times spread the assumption through a prominent May 24, 2025, article and graph reaching 11 million subscribers, with the misrepresentation circulating widely on social media before qu... policy Police departments nationwide enacted a wave of measures after 2020 to improve training and hold officers more accountable, directly based on demands to end fatal tactics. policy Prison and jail populations dropped 14 percent from 2019 to mid-2020; rogue prosecutors funded by far-left money released criminals or declined prosecutions. policy Police departments in cities like St. Louis area, Baltimore, Chicago, and Milwaukee reduced aggressive enforcement after BLM protests triumphs over local police, leading to immediate homicide spikes. ...and 31 more
Post-Apartheid South Africa Safe for Whites contested White residents and farmers in post-apartheid South Africa would live safely under black majority rule through liberal coexistence.	Liberals propped up coexistence with the belief that farm invasions were not human evil but a circulatory system sharing scarce goods like cars, shoes, and women; this ignored targeted racial viole... Two major independent inquiries examined farm attacks and found no evidence of orchestrated campaigns against white farmers, undercutting claims of systematic targeting. This relied on police recor... Farm murders represent only 0.2% of all murders nationally, with 49 farm murders versus 27 621 total in 2023–2024, patterns matching general criminal motives like robbery rather than racial genocide. White people are statistically less at risk of violent crime than other racial groups, contradicting assumptions of disproportionate targeting of white farmers. ...and 37 more	propagation White literary and film critics spread denial by convincing themselves the novel was about something other than black attacks on white farmers. propagation Misinformation and false narratives about farm attacks circulate via social media and other platforms, amplified despite counter-evidence. propagation Farm attacks drew significant media and political attention due to their disproportionate rise against isolated white owners vulnerable to unpredictable stranger crime. policy South African government granted land to black workers like Petrus, enabling land grabs from white farmers like Lucy. policy Rural Safety Strategy (RSS) involves SAPS, partners monitoring detection and court outcomes via Rural Safety Forums to combat farm crime effectively. policy SAPS prioritized premeditated stranger crimes against white farm owners over assaults among black farmworkers or social crimes, leading to little or no response in common farm violence cases. ...and 61 more
White Flight Driven by Bigotry contested White residents fled urban neighborhoods due to irrational racist stereotypes about black crime and disorder when blacks moved in during the mid-20th	The belief that white Catholics stayed due to parish anchors and fled only from cultural shifts seemed credible from heavy church investments but ignored crime data; it generated sub-beliefs that b... Argument that Catholic identity tied residents to 'St. Barnabas' or 'Holy Name' parishes seemed reasonable from self-identification patterns but masked crime driving flight. The Gallup Poll Social Audit was cited to show rising white tolerance, with 80 percent of whites in 1958 saying they would leave if blacks moved in dropping to 18 percent by 1997; this seemed credi... Declining white metro shares from 78 percent in 1980 to 66 percent in 2000 and fewer all-Anglo neighborhoods were presented as evidence white flight declined; these trends seemed reasonable from ce... ...and 29 more	propagation Media like the New York Times used pejorative 'white flight' framing while contrasting it favorably with 'gentrification' and buried crime facts deep in stories. propagation Academic literature propagated declining white flight relevance through opinion surveys on tolerance and analyses emphasizing demographic diversification over exit behaviors. propagation Prior neighborhood preference research created hierarchy viewing whites as preferred out-group and blacks least preferred, spreading idea that white but not minority responses drive segregation. policy Legacies of racial covenants, blockbusting, and redlining enforced segregation based on fears of Black neighbors signaling decline and crime. policy Fair Housing Act, enacted 1968, dismantled institutional barriers preventing blacks from white neighborhoods, based on view of white collective action as primary segregation cause. policy State-level school finance equalisation schemes and federal community development block grants addressed jurisdictional funding disparities from white departures, recognizing uncoordinated market c... ...and 39 more
South Vietnam Peasants Hated Communists strong South Vietnamese peasants hated Communists as much as pro-Western elites did and broadly supported the US-backed government.	Pro-Western Vietnamese elites assured US officials that South Vietnamese peasants hated Communists as much as they did, seeming credible due to shared French language and anti-communist stance, but... Post-WWII East Asia had only collaborators or communists as modern managers, seeming reasonable as they got things done, generating belief US-backed collaborators sufficed; ignored cultural resentm... Belief rested on evidence from early 1960s when VC held favor, American soldiers sensing hostility in VC areas, and assumption villagers blamed Allies for damage like heroes prizing ideals. This mi... Harsh Phoenix program aspects seen as turning villagers against GVN. Downstream belief: rural populace did not actively support GVN in war's last decade. ...and 7 more	propagation The assumption spread through personal assurances from French-speaking pro-Western Vietnamese to French-speaking Americans in Vietnam, creating elite consensus on peasant support. propagation Historians over-relied on plentiful early war evidence and accessible American soldier testimony from VC-strong areas. Antiwar partisans downplayed shifts to sustain objection that enemy enjoyed gr... propagation Defense Department funding and ARPA contracts spread research on Viet Cong motives through RAND reports, challenging internal debates on peasant loyalties. policy Vietnamization policy under Nixon shifted burden to South Vietnam, succeeding in 1972 against invasion, but Congress cut air support assuming self-sufficiency. policy US pacification and bombing escalation relied on assumption of peasant anti-Communism, but pre-bombing recruits showed recruitment success through voluntary means. policy US military aid and presence in South Vietnam rested on SVN government legitimacy demonstrated by these elections, tied to SEATO protocol extending defense to former French Indochina states and 196... ...and 11 more
Airport Profiling is Racial Discrimination emerging Airport security must avoid profiling Arab or Middle Eastern-looking travelers to prevent racial discrimination and disparate impact.	Belief that even non-racial profiling causing disparate impact on Arabs or Muslims is discriminatory and unacceptable, conflating it with broader racial profiling issues like secret evidence in imm... Racial profiling at airports singles out Arabs for questioning, framed as discriminatory alongside secret evidence cases; this conflation made opposition seem reasonable before 9/11. U.S. law clearly prohibited discrimination in screening based on race or other factors, making profiling illegal. Early post-Sept. 11 profiling incidents were viewed as violations to be minimized, supporting uniform screening. ...and 9 more	propagation Presidential debate and subsequent endorsement by Arab-American Political Action Committee spread anti-profiling stance, amplified by Bush Administration officials and civil rights groups. propagation Media and public discourse equated Arab airport screening with 'Driving While Black,' normalizing opposition to ethnic-based security checks. propagation Presidential debate remarks spread the assumption by exciting Arab-American voters and leaders, leading to fundraising and poll gains for Bush. policy Bush Administration's June 2001 study at Detroit airport examined disparate impact on Arabs from profiling, reflecting policy commitment to eliminate even indirect ethnic targeting. policy Secret evidence law allowed detention of suspected terrorists without evidence disclosure, conflated with airport profiling and targeted for change by candidates. policy Federal takeover of airport security post-Sept. 11 mandated tighter screening without racial profiling or discrimination. ...and 22 more
Universal Health Standards Fit All Races emerging Clinical standards like growth charts and BMI thresholds assume a single human prototype applicable across all populations regardless of ancestry.	WHO growth charts from Ohio data assumed identical height and weight trajectories worldwide, seeming credible from limited Western samples but misleading due to unaccounted genetic diversity in bas... Single BMI cutoff propped up obesity diagnoses, credible from average populations but wrong for stockier groups like Pacific Islanders or leaner ones like South Asians, generating sub-belief that s... The BMI obesity cutoff of ≥30 kg/m² originated from observational studies in Europe and the USA using exclusively White populations. It relied on associations between BMI and mortality. This made i... WHO adjusted BMI cutoffs to 27.5 kg/m² for South Asians and Chinese based on higher body fat percentages at given BMIs from Asian studies. This seemed reasonable as a proxy for risk but used sparse... ...and 33 more	propagation Universal standards spread through global funding priorities, international aid programs, and clinical pediatric assessments. propagation Charts propagated via pediatricians and online forums, causing South Asian parents to worry over normal small children. propagation WHO and NICE recommendations for BMI cutoffs spread through national and global guidelines. These triggered clinical actions for obesity prevention based on questionable thresholds for non-White gr... policy German charity enrolled Daasanach families in nutrition programs with high-calorie supplements based on WHO charts. policy NICE guidelines in England set BMI 27.5 kg/m² as cutoff for South Asian and Chinese populations to implement lifestyle interventions against obesity risks. This was enacted post-2004 WHO consultati... policy WHO adjusted BMI cutoffs lower for Asian Americans due to higher metabolic risks, setting precedent for demographic-specific standards. ...and 38 more
SAT/ACT Scores Are Biased Predictors emerging Standardized test scores like SAT/ACT are less predictive of college success than high school GPA and exhibit bias against disadvantaged or minority s	The assumption relied on beliefs that rich parents' test prep inflates SAT/ACT scores relative to underlying preparation, making tests less predictive than high school GPA, and that tests bias agai... High school GPA was seen as more reliable than SAT/ACT due to its direct measure of academic performance, but grade inflation capped GPAs at 4.0, eroding its predictive power at elite levels. Retesting boosted low scorers more via regression to mean, but admissions ignored highest scores only rule, assuming tests unreliable for lower groups. Critics of The Bell Curve argued that Herrnstein and Murray's measure of parental SES was imperfect, and proper controls for confounding factors diminish IQ's effect on outcomes. ...and 24 more	propagation Admissions committees propagated the view by going test-optional, assuming they could adjust GPAs for school rigor but often lacking precise knowledge of high school differences. propagation Media and elite discourse treated SAT perfect scorers as anomalies, ignoring their later success in high-end careers amid credential inflation. propagation Popular media continues to claim the SAT favors rich families or acts as a wealth test, sustaining skepticism about IQ-type tests. policy Top colleges enacted test-optional admissions policies post-2020, basing decisions on high school GPA over SAT/ACT scores assumed to be biased. policy US gifted programs were systematically dismantled based on equity concerns over revealed racial talent gaps, neglecting talent nurturing. policy The Luevano consent decree, enacted in January 1981, banned use of the PACE exam and similar merit tests in federal civil service hiring. ...and 36 more
Federal Cuts Like Twitter Layoffs contested Drastic staff reductions in federal agencies succeed the same way as in private companies like Twitter.	Private takeovers succeed by incentivizing insiders with bonuses; this seemed credible from Milken and Musk examples but misleads for feds lacking such tools. Twitter's survival after 75% cuts propped belief in easy government parallels, generating sub-belief that federal insiders would cooperate similarly. Redundancy and minutia in government jobs provide intentional protections against fraud, theft, and autocrats, unlike private sector efficiencies that do not scale to federal size. Proponents relied on the belief that federal workforce reductions would yield large savings proportional to private sector layoffs, but this overlooked that the 3.8 million federal employees accoun... ...and 8 more	propagation Musk's Twitter success story spread assumption that same applies to government via DOGE promotion. propagation Big Tech leaders formally and informally advise the Trump administration, accelerating federal workforce cuts based on corporate governance models. propagation DOGE propagated the assumption through public goals of massive spending cuts via workforce and administrative reductions, gaining support from think tanks like Cato. policy DOGE directs federal agency cuts like firing 500 people, based on private sector model. policy Executive orders signed by Trump in first two weeks of 2025 reduced federal size by rolling back DEI and mandating RTO five days per week, with OPM buyout and deferred resignation offered to 2 mill... policy DOGE implemented a federal civil service buyout offer in 2025, which drove over 150,000 job cuts in October alone as part of its workforce reduction policy. ...and 20 more
Parents Primarily Shape Children strong Children turn out the way they do primarily because of their parents' child-rearing styles.	Theories claimed kids were shaped solely by parents' child-rearing style; this seemed credible from observational studies but ignored genes and peers, generating sub-beliefs like parental power ove... Studies claimed no difference from maternal employment; misleading due to non-random choices, generating belief parents' direct styles irrelevant. The nurture assumption relied on flawed studies correlating parental traits with child outcomes without controlling for genetics; rigorous studies show resemblances due to heredity, not environment... Twin studies assumed equal environments for identical twins overestimate shared environment; actually validated, they show genetics dominate, shared environment minor, generating sub-belief that pa... ...and 16 more	propagation Major magazines ballyhooed Harris's book before publication, highlighting the shift from the dominant nurture view. propagation Child-rearing books reinforced the assumption by targeting first-time parents and hushing up differences between siblings. propagation The assumption spread through psychology textbooks and cultural beliefs, unquestioned by authors like Harris until she examined evidence. policy Multicultural education, bilingualism, college-admission quotas, busing, and co-ed boot camps were enacted assuming parental nurture overrode innate and peer influences. policy Over 70 years, policies and norms shifted to reduce physical punishment, increase praise and affection, and make parents prioritize child self-esteem and convenience, based on the assumption. policy Reassignment and surgery standard for XY infants with penile loss or micropenis based on Money's model; accelerated decline post-exposure. ...and 13 more
Iraq Had WMDs and Al-Qaeda Ties strong Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction and Saddam Hussein supported al-Qaeda.	The primary rationale cited Iraq's possession of WMDs and Saddam Hussein's support for al-Qaeda. These claims seemed credible based on intelligence reports at the time but proved false, as no WMD s... Saddam's belief in WMD value stemmed from their perceived role in halting Iranian offensives, breaking Tehran's will, deterring Coalition in 1991, and crushing Shi’a revolt; this propped up externa... No formal written WMD revival strategy or separate planners existed; lieutenants inferred Saddam's goal from verbal directions, making assumption seem credible via opacity but actually lacking subs... Prewar assessments evaluated Iraq's WMD programs as a basis for policy, but postwar findings documented in the report showed key differences. ...and 6 more	propagation US Congress passed a bipartisan resolution in October 2002 granting Bush authority to use force against Iraq based on the false claims. propagation Regime used Oil-for-Food corruption and revenue generation to erode UN member states' resolve on sanctions enforcement, nearing de facto end by 1999-2001. propagation Debate over intelligence failures on Iraq's WMD and terrorism links appeared in additional and minority views attached to the committee's main report. policy The US-led invasion began March 20, 2003, overthrowing Saddam's Ba'athist regime based on the false WMD and al-Qaeda rationale. The 2007 troop surge deployed 170,000 additional US troops. policy UN Oil-for-Food program initiated in 1996 allowed regime to generate illicit revenue and dual-use goods procurement, undermining UNSCR 661 sanctions intended to prevent WMD reconstitution. policy UK committed to military action based on WMD intelligence, leading to invasion planning from January 2003. ...and 7 more
Specialists Required for Effective Therapy emerging Only licensed mental health specialists can effectively deliver evidence-based psychotherapy for depression.	Therapy elites assumed formal licensure and specialist training were essential for effective depression treatment; SUMMIT showed brief training for nonspecialists sufficed with supervision. Belief in specialist superiority relied on untested assumptions; SUMMIT generated sub-belief that video and nonspecialists scale care equally. Assumption rested on belief that formal mental-health training and licensure were required for competence in delivering structured therapies like behavioral activation; trial showed standardized ma... The assumption rested on the belief that specialist expertise was required for effective outcomes, despite evidence that paraprofessionals achieved equal or better results; this generated sub-belie... ...and 17 more	propagation Academic colloquia spread evidence challenging specialist exclusivity, as in Singla's talk on scaling psychotherapies via nonspecialists. propagation Assumption spread through therapy elite norms prioritizing licensed clinicians over scalable models using non-specialists. propagation Professional norms propagated the assumption through top-down adaptations of specialist treatments like CBT, which still failed to engage low-income mothers despite added logistical support. policy Licensure laws enforce specialist-only delivery, limiting scalable mental health access despite evidence nonspecialists work. policy Licensure requirements limit psychotherapy delivery to specialists, hindering scaling as shown in trials favoring trained nonspecialists. policy Institutional practices in the mental health system mandated delivery by mental-health professionals, shaping treatment access and funding norms that disadvantaged low-income groups. ...and 13 more
Ego Depletion Limits Willpower strong Self-control depletes like a limited resource after use, causing subsequent failures.	Ego depletion rested on studies and meta-analyses showing self-control tasks reduced performance on follow-up tasks. Reanalysis revealed effects could be modest, tiny, or nonexistent depending on s... Early ego depletion studies used short self-control tasks that seemed to show depletion effects, supported by a 2010 meta-analysis claiming robust results; these were misleading due to questionable... Glucose was cited as the finite resource for self-control, seeming credible from initial links to blood sugar but quickly disproven. Ego depletion drew from studies showing reduced self-control after initial exertion; it spawned sub-beliefs in willpower as muscle-like and applications to daily behaviors, but replications collapsed. ...and 18 more	propagation Intelligent psychologists spread ego depletion through motivated reasoning, constructing narratives and rationalizations to fit data to the failing theory. propagation Ego depletion spread through publication bias favoring positive results, early meta-analyses, and celebrity endorsement like President Obama citing it. propagation Social psychology conferences and awards amplified ego depletion, with Inzlicht winning a top honor in 2015 for related theory. policy President Obama cited ego depletion publicly, influencing policy views on self-control in areas like overeating and decision-making. policy Psychological interventions were designed to increase willpower to strengthen conscientiousness, influencing research and therapeutic practices. ...and 15 more
Lab Studies Predict Real Behavior emerging Controlled lab experiments in social psychology reliably demonstrate effects that occur and matter in the real world.	Lab experiments were cited as proofs that effects like self-control reducing snack consumption occur, generating sub-belief that these translate to real-world outcomes like weight loss; they seemed... William McGuire's perspectivism argued lab experiments are mere proofs of concept under specific conditions, propping up belief they demonstrate real-world relevance; this was misleading as effects... Belief that lab self-control experiments predict real-world outcomes like weight loss seemed credible from clean lab results but was misleading, as real-world tracking showed no predictive power am... William McGuire's perspectivism argued lab experiments are proofs of concept under specific conditions, generating sub-belief that they demonstrate real-world relevance, but they often fail to brid... ...and 20 more	propagation Academic norms and viral attention spread skepticism when Inzlicht's post gained coverage in The Atlantic, The Globe and Mail, and Undark Magazine, shifting views from mainstream to replication-cri... propagation Inzlicht's 2015 blog post spread skepticism through social media, academic inboxes, and media like The Atlantic, The Globe and Mail, and MIT’s Undark Magazine. propagation Inzlicht's 2015 blog post spread through academic social media, inboxes, The Atlantic, The Globe and Mail, and MIT’s Undark Magazine, marking his shift to the replication-crisis camp. policy Field shifted to standard preregistration, open data, and large samples based on replication crisis recognition, but vignette self-reports proliferated due to cost pressures. policy Academic hiring, tenure, and grants relied on publication counts and journal prestige without vetting replicability, allocating resources to weak research. policy Libertarian paternalism and nudge techniques became policy tools based on behavioral insights replacing pure rational choice assumptions. ...and 14 more
Willpower Builds Long-Term Success emerging Exercising state self-control through willpower in the moment reliably leads to long-term success and better life outcomes.	Correlational evidence linked trait self-control to better life outcomes like wealth and health, seeming credible because it was consistent across studies, but misled by assuming state self-control... Trait self-control was conflated with conscientiousness, a personality trait already named by personality psychologists, but social psychologists reinvented it as grit or trait self-control, proppi... Studies linking trait self-control to better life outcomes like wealthier adults from controlled children seemed credible but generated the sub-belief that success came from constant state self-con... Marshmallow test results were cited to credit willpower for success but later showed kids succeeded due to smarts and wealth, not self-control. ...and 22 more	propagation The assumption spread through psychology papers, TED talks, bestselling books, and personal advice. propagation Social psychologists promoted it by failing to distinguish trait from state self-control and assuming they worked the same way. propagation Psychological science spread the assumption through studies and nomenclature that equated conscientious success with willpower use. policy Psychological interventions were designed to increase willpower to strengthen conscientiousness, influencing research and therapeutic practices. policy Head Start, a federally funded preschool program launched in 1965, targeted IQ enhancement for needy children based on assumptions prioritizing cognitive over self-control skills. policy Institutions like schools adopted self-control aligned practices for student selection and training based on predictive claims. ...and 18 more
Marshmallow Test Predicts Life Success emerging The length of time children delay eating a marshmallow predicts their long-term success in life.	The marshmallow experiment offered children one treat now or two later, seeming credible as a measure of self-control but generating sub-beliefs that waiting time alone predicts success while ignor... Original marshmallow experiments used a small unrepresentative sample from Stanford community, seeming credible then but misleading as the link weakened with diverse larger samples controlling for ... Original studies used small, non-diverse samples of preschoolers asked to wait up to 20 minutes, seeming credible for self-control links but yielding large effects that shrank in larger samples; it... Mischel noted larger samples might show smaller effects and home environment matters more, but the core claim persisted that delay predicted success. ...and 13 more	propagation The marshmallow study spread through public fascination and iconic status in psychology, captivating audiences for decades. propagation Findings spread through Introduction to Psychology courses and influenced decisions on skills for early-intervention programs. propagation Media and awards like the 2015 Golden Goose Award spread the idea of the test as a key predictor of life success. policy Interventions focused only on teaching delay of gratification were developed based on the assumption of strong predictive power. policy Interventions targeted early delay of gratification capacity based on the test's claimed predictive power for long-term behavioral and academic outcomes. policy Schools adopted marshmallow tests and self-control training into curriculums based on claims of predictive power for life success. ...and 13 more
Gender Pay Gap Proves Discrimination emerging Women earn substantially less than men due to workplace discrimination rather than career choices and job differences.	Raw pay gap statistics from agencies and media seemed credible as unadjusted averages but were misleading because they ignored different jobs, hours, risks, and career breaks, shrinking to nothing ... Claims of 134 years to equality relied on raw gaps but generated sub-beliefs in systemic oppression needing fixes, despite equal opportunities today. The raw gender wage gap was interpreted as a clear indication of overt wage discrimination against women. This belief relied on unadjusted median earnings ratios without accounting for differences ... Sub-beliefs included ignoring part-time work, career interruptions for childcare, and occupational choices. These factors made the raw gap seem like pure discrimination when they explained most of it. ...and 45 more	propagation Alarmist headlines in the US, Europe, and Australia spread the assumption through media reports citing 17 percent, 13 percent, and $30,000 gaps without context. propagation Pay gap reports from firms like Populous were framed as scandals despite admitting equal pay for equal work, propagating misunderstanding through ritual apologies. propagation The raw wage gap spread through political controversy and public discourse as evidence of discrimination. It was cited without explaining contributing factors like occupation and human capital. policy Gender pay gap narratives drive policies directing resources to fabricated discrimination issues while overlooking male educational decline, loneliness, and youth suicides. policy Public policy agendas justified corrective action based on the raw wage gap. The DOL report warned against using the raw gap as the basis for such policies. policy Paycheck Fairness Act was pushed by Obama and Clinton to strengthen the Equal Pay Act based on the raw ratio, aiming to shrink the gender pay gap. ...and 42 more
Brain Differences Are Caused by Structural Racism contested Race differences in brain structure serve as a reminder of structural racism's public health effects.	The Harvard study cited race differences in brain structure as seeming credible evidence for structural racism's effects, generating the sub-belief that such differences have no biological basis an... Structural racism rooted in enslavement, segregation, imperialism, colonialism props up beliefs in ongoing inequities across education, housing, healthcare, criminal justice; downstream it generate... Repeated racism-related stress exposure cited as dysregulating HPA axis, altering inflammation, disrupting neural self-regulation circuits; seemed credible via stress-response studies but misleadin... Critical Race Theory and intersectionality frame race as reinforcing White dominance, overlapping with gender, immigration to amplify oppression; applied to link racism to adolescent mental health,... ...and 18 more	propagation The assumption spread through academic research from a prestigious institution like Harvard Medical School. propagation Academic theoretical frameworks like Bonilla-Silva’s systemic racism concept, CRT, intersectionality, and bioecological models propagate the assumption through research explaining racial health dis... propagation Proposed Biopsychosocial Integrative Systems Model (BISM) spreads the assumption by integrating historical racism with neurodevelopment, intersectionality, for both native and immigrant Black youth. policy Redlining, banking practice restricting Black mortgages until outlawed 1968, enacted as structural racism example; legacy cited as creating concentrated poverty neighborhoods hindering Black youth ... policy Harvard Catalyst enacted a two-year faculty fellowship (2022-24) in diversity inclusion specifically for Harnett's project on neurobiological effects of early-life stress from racial inequities on ... policy Implicit bias training programs were implemented in public and private institutions based on IAT evidence framing racism as measurable individual unconscious bias. ...and 19 more
Skull Measurements of Different Races was Biased strong Samuel Morton's skull measurements exemplified unconscious bias leading scientists to falsify data in support of racist views.	Gould recomputed Morton's published statistics claiming equal skull volumes across races; seemed credible from Science publication but erred systematically toward equality, propping up belief scien... Gould cited disproportionate rise in African mean cranial capacity from 1839 pepper seed to 1844 shot measurements versus other races as evidence of bias; it seemed credible due to technique change... Pepper seeds were light, variable in size, easily compressed, leading to variable measurements; this sub-belief propped up bias claim but generated downstream view that manipulation was needed only... Gould's claim that Morton selectively reported Caucasian subsample means but hid high Indian subsamples seemed credible from his reanalysis but was wrong; Morton reported Indian subsamples includin... ...and 7 more	propagation Gould's accusations spread via Science journal and his 1981 book The Mismeasure of Man, establishing Morton as standard example of misconduct for 30 years. propagation Gould spread the assumption via 1978 Science article and widely read 1981 book The Mismeasure of Man. propagation Gould's 1978 Science paper and 1981 book spread the assumption through academia; it remains assigned in university courses. policy American Southern slavery justified by followers' interpretation of Morton's accurate data as proof of racial inferiority. ...and 5 more
No Recent Human Evolution contested The human mind is adapted to the conditions of 10,000 years ago and has not changed since.	Evolutionary psychologists held the human mind fixed since 10,000 years ago, seeming credible from adaptation to Pleistocene conditions but misleading as traits evolved more recently and evidence s... Decline in violence driven solely by state monopoly and commerce, cited by Pinker and Elias as principal drivers, generated sub-belief ignoring genetic continuity from skull gracilization and herit... Academics implied human evolution halted in the distant past, a view propped up by post-WWII rejection of biological race concepts and reinforced by sub-beliefs that races are social myths with no ... Reported genetic associations with intelligence were dismissed as false positives, supporting the belief in no evolved group differences in cognitive traits. ...and 19 more	propagation The assumption spread through academic consensus among evolutionary psychologists and major works like Pinker's survey on violence. propagation The assumption spread through academic consensus in anthropology and sociology, with organizations like the AAA using public projects to educate that race is not biological. propagation Great Awokening created blackout on academic exploration of psychological group differences through social pressure and fear of slander. policy PhD admissions policies in English-speaking universities during Great Awokening denied entry to researchers proposing evolved psychological group differences. policy Cambridge University's Faculty of Philosophy hiring practices considered Cofnas's controversial paper but appointed him anyway as early career fellow on a three-year programme. policy Academic curricula in psychology presented The Bell Curve as debunked, shaping professional training and discouraging research into race and IQ differences. ...and 9 more
Guns, Germs, and Steel Explain the Rise of the West contested History followed different courses for different peoples because of differences among peoples’ environments, not because of biological differences amo	Diamond's core argument was that environmental differences like plant and animal domestication determined historical outcomes, generating sub-belief that biology plays no role and institutional dif... Assumed no role for modern science or Industrial Revolution, propped by ignoring Europe's institutional openness versus China's hierarchy. Diamond cited domesticable species, disease spread, and geography like Eurasia's axis as reasons for Western success, generating sub-belief that genes played no role; this seemed credible from pret... Diamond argued intelligence evolves faster in Stone Age societies, seeming reasonable from natural selection logic but misleading as modern societies reward it more and East Asians/Europeans score ... ...and 21 more	propagation Diamond's book gained massive popularity, shaping academic and public views on history by framing biological explanations as taboo. propagation Guns, Germs, and Steel spread the assumption through wide popularity among readers who overlooked its counterfactual claims. propagation The book propagated the thesis via its Pulitzer Prize status and preface denying racial explanations, appealing to audiences wary of biological arguments. policy Orthodoxy led to institutional reluctance to fund or publish research on average genetic differences among populations, distorting genetics research agendas. policy Orthodoxy led to anxiety about population genetics research, stifling inquiry into differences to avoid slippery slope to pseudoscience justifying racism. policy Harvard's response to Summers' speech, including protests leading to his resignation, institutionalized norms against biological explanations for sex disparities in academia. ...and 11 more
Immigration Compensates for Low Birth Rate contested Immigration is needed to compensate for low birth rates and solve population decline.	The assumption relied on the belief that immigration reverses population decline without aging issues, seeming credible from raw population totals but misleading as immigrants age too and remain a ... Proponents assumed immigrants are fiscally neutral or positive, propped by ignoring IQ, skills, and welfare use differences, generating sub-belief that composition doesn't matter. Studies like Lewis and Peri 2015 and Peri 2016 claimed immigration does not displace jobs, depress wages, or reduce capital intensity but allows firm expansion, investment adjustment, and innovatio... Orrenius 2017 and similar studies claimed immigrants provide positive lifetime fiscal contributions such as $173,000 per recent US immigrant due to high employment and education; this propped up be... ...and 76 more	propagation The assumption spread as a common refrain among elites and policymakers, seducing publics with simple population math over detailed fiscal analysis. propagation Economic journals and handbooks propagated the assumption through studies like Peri 2016 in Journal of Economic Perspectives and chapters in Regional and Urban Economics. propagation University budget models like PWBM spread the assumption via detailed projections, figures, and policy briefs using Census and CDC data. policy European and Anglosphere governments enacted high immigration policies to address pension costs from aging, based on the false premise it sustains worker-to-retiree ratios. policy Advanced economies must increase allowed immigrants, reduce constraints on immigration, and plan for future inflows to realize demographic benefits like stable populations and lower age dependency ... policy PWBM recommended immigration policy raising annual rates to 3.5 times current levels to restore long-term worker-retiree ratio. ...and 98 more
Diversity is Our Strength contested Diversity, particularly racial diversity achieved by reducing the proportion of white people, is a great strength that fosters creativity, dynamism, a	The belief that a higher proportion of non-whites equates to greater racial diversity and thus a higher grade seemed credible through simplistic metrics ignoring white representation, generating su... Demographic projections like whites becoming a minority by 2045 were cited as inevitable progress, propping up beliefs in 'diversity explosion' while ignoring policy-driven causes. Multiculturalism rested on liberal-rational beliefs in neutral principles, procedural justice, and abstract equality; this seemed credible as extension of Enlightenment values but generated sub-bel... The assumption rested on divorcing culture from ethnicity and ignoring evolutionary biases toward learning from and trusting co-ethnics, generating sub-beliefs that mixing always builds trust and c... ...and 90 more	propagation Elites and media propagated the assumption through panegyrics to demographic change, with figures like Michael Moore calling the white decline in the 2020 census the 'best day ever in U.S. history'... propagation Phrases like 'coalition of the ascendant' and 'demographics are destiny' spread awareness among liberals of political gains from diversity, normalizing elite preferences over public opinion. propagation Intellectuals and publicists conducted a concentrated onslaught to entrench multiculturalism as dominant framework across Western institutions. policy The 1965 Immigration Reform Act, promoted by the Kennedy family, was enacted based on assumptions of beneficial diversity, leading to rapid demographic shifts toward fewer whites. policy Clinton administration policies in the 1990s made encouragement of diversity a major goal, institutionalizing multiculturalism without voter approval. policy UK Labour government under Blair enacted immigration expansion in late 1990s-2000s, basing it on multiculturalism to drive demographic change. ...and 147 more
Black-White IQ Gap is 100% Environmental contested The Black-White IQ gap is entirely caused by environmental factors like socioeconomic status and education.	Socioeconomic status (SES) was cited as the obvious environmental explanation for the IQ gap, seeming credible due to correlations between parental SES and child IQ, but it is misleading because ge... Parental SES and education were argued to cause the IQ gap, but high-SES Black children score lower than low-SES White children, generating sub-belief that equalizing environments closes gaps, whic... High within-group heritability and persistence of gap despite interventions propped up environment-only by seeming to demand cultural fixes, but contradicted by transracial adoptions and Spearman's... Socioeconomic status like income, wealth, and parental SES fully explains the black-white IQ gap, but datasets show the gap remains one standard deviation at the top decile of SES. ...and 45 more	propagation Environment-only theory persists through moral intimidation and extra-scientific pressures rather than evidence, with hereditarianism unpopular due to incendiary implications. propagation Academic articles routinely equate the hereditarian hypothesis with racism while failing to specify environmental factors explaining IQ gaps. propagation Watson's 2007 Sunday Times interview spread his challenge to the equal intelligence assumption, prompting institutional backlash including cancellations and revocations. policy Compensatory education programs were enacted based on environment-only assumption to boost IQ, but failed to produce enduring gains despite massive expenditures. policy Social policies for Africa were enacted based on the assumption that Africans' intelligence equals that of Westerners, as Watson noted in 2007. policy Rapid decolonization in the mid-20th century withdrew European administrators from African colonies, based on the assumption of equal capacity for self-governance; UN intervention crushed independe... ...and 37 more
Murder Rates Are Accurate Proxy for Crime emerging Murder rates accurately reflect overall crime and disorder levels across time and between countries.	Murder rates seemed credible as a proxy because definitions and reporting remain consistent across time and countries, unlike other crimes affected by shifts. This generated sub-belief that stable ... Harris et al. 2002 study showed if assaults lethal as in 1960, 1999 murder rate would be 3.4 times higher, propping up unadjusted proxy use but misleading on violence scale. Secular trends like obesity, wealth, forensics, aging should cut crime but did not, undermining assumption of stable violence. Public discourse and media propped up the assumption that homicide rates serve as a proxy for overall gun-related violent crime. This belief seemed reasonable due to national focus on homicides. It... ...and 10 more	propagation Murder rates spread through discourse as benchmark for safety comparisons over time and internationally, leading to assumptions of low modern crime. propagation Homicide rates spread the assumption through national media attention, often excluding coverage of overall gun violence. propagation Annual FBI Crime in the United States publication spread UCR data widely to researchers, media, and policymakers as a primary local crime indicator despite gaps. policy 1960s-1970s legal barriers prioritized criminal rights over punishment, based on viewing criminals as societal victims, enabling prolific offenders to continue. policy 1996 Local Law Enforcement Block Grant (LLEBG) formula used UCR data for federal fund allocation despite agencies lacking 36 months of violent crime data or having zero months. policy Criminological research practices treat homicide rates as proxies for overall or violent crime in social-structural studies across regions or periods, influencing comparative analyses. ...and 9 more
Grit is More Important than IQ contested Grit is more important than IQ when you're trying to become successful.	Claims position grit and non-cognitive skills as superior to IQ for life outcomes; seemed reasonable amid pushback on cognitive testing but recent data challenges this. Duckworth et al.'s 2007 study on West Point cadets showed strong grit effects because the sample was range restricted on intelligence due to selection into elite institutions, seeming credible at t... Duckworth distinguished grit from conscientiousness by specifying consistent goals and interests, arguing it as superior, but meta-analyses show grit correlates only .17 with GPA while conscientiou... Duckworth's claim that grit outperforms IQ seemed credible from her studies and TED talk but was misleading as meta-analysis showed intelligence explains half of performance differences while grit ... ...and 36 more	propagation Skepticism about IQ's importance spreads through popular media telling people grit trumps IQ for success. propagation Academic publications on grit exploded from 76 in 2008 to 1,650 in 2018 per Google Scholar, growing faster than interest in intelligence or conscientiousness, spreading the idea through academia. propagation Popular media propagated grit hype, with Hanford (2012) writing on an educational website that grit may be as essential as intelligence for high achievement. policy US schools planned grit assessments starting 2017 and Department of Education backed interventions based on grit outperforming talent. policy Schools and districts enacted grit curricula and accountability tests based on assumption it is teachable skill. policy U.S. schools implemented grit-focused interventions and measurements in response to Duckworth's findings, diverting resources from cognitive skill-building. ...and 33 more
Foreign Assistance Pulls Africa Out of Poverty emerging Foreign aid and reparations will kickstart economic growth and lift developing countries out of poverty.	Proponents believed foreign aid would promote self-sustaining growth if given to poor countries, generating sub-beliefs in institutional building and poverty alleviation; evidence shows it undermin... Aid was seen as effective like loans with oversight; it lacked scrutiny, leading to failed projects, as documented by Groß and Danzinger on total factor productivity. The belief that lack of resources impedes growth and aid funds would be well spent seemed credible from UN Millennium Goals needing 7 percent growth, but was wrong as $500 billion led to GDP per ca... UN and donors cited lack of resources as Africa's growth barrier, believing aid would fund development and reforms; this generated sub-beliefs in poverty traps and adjustment programs, but aid fund... ...and 4 more	propagation Politicians like David Lammy amplified calls for reparations through public statements, framing them as economic boosts amid growing advocacy. propagation G8 summits and international meetings like Gleneagles propagated aid through grand initiatives and calls for billions, with donors exchanging congratulatory pats before initiatives fizzled. propagation G8 summits, UN sessions every decade, and donor conferences spread the assumption through grand announcements and pledges like Blair's Gleneagles centerpiece. policy Over $500 billion in aid to Africa from 1960-1997, equivalent to four Marshall Plans, was enacted based on the assumption it would pull the continent out of poverty. policy Chad-Cameroon Pipeline included policy that 85% of oil revenues go to poverty reduction in education, health, and infrastructure, but was undermined by government diversions. policy Millennium Challenge Account by Bush administration provided grants to poor African countries based on aid for reform. ...and 10 more
Wrong Side of History contested Traditionalist views are on the wrong side of history and destined for moral condemnation by future generations.	The whiggish view of history portrayed progressivism as ascending from ignorance to wisdom, with traditionalism as inferior. It generated sub-beliefs that opposition to immigration or gay marriage ... Obama's speeches cited economic decay causing clinging to guns or religion, framing traditional views as motivated by fear rather than legitimate values. This seemed credible via narratives of enli... The Whig theory portrayed British and American history as the ongoing natural progress toward liberty, propping up the assumption by framing history as directional moral improvement and generating ... Martin Luther King Jr.'s phrase suggested the arc of the moral universe bends toward justice, cited as evidence of time's curative power while spawning beliefs in historical inevitability. ...and 15 more	propagation Democratic speeches and campaign ads spread pluralism rhetoric through media and rallies, masking underlying triumphalism. propagation DNC speeches propagated moral condescension, framing traditionalists as needing to 'catch up'. propagation The assumption spread through Christian sacralization of history, secular scientific progress believers, European imperialist doctrines, and early modern/Enlightenment contempt for the past. policy Roe v. Wade framework imposed national abortion standards, overriding state variations until Dobbs in 2022. policy Supreme Court decision on gay marriage enforced it nationwide, against traditionalist communities' values. policy Executive order to close Guantanamo Bay within one year, enacted May 2009, rested on the belief it fueled terrorism recruitment. ...and 23 more
No Racial Differences in Athletic Ability contested Racial gaps in athletic performance such as West African dominance in sprinting and East African dominance in distance running stem from culture, ster	Souaiaia et al argued non-West Africans breaking sprint records disproves inherent advantage, but this seemed credible only superficially; top 100 times still show 97 West/South African dominance. Caribbean sprinting success was cited to undermine West African genetic edge, seeming plausible but misleading since it shows ancestry matters over location, with blacks excelling regardless of UK ... African diversity like Kenyan Bantu sprinters was presented as evidence against West African monopoly, but Bantu share West African traits and Kenya/South Africa have large such populations. East Asian sprint records and finals presence suggested no West African edge, appearing convincing but ignoring top 100 having only one East Asian vs 97 West/South African. ...and 27 more	propagation Academic papers deployed terms like “racialist paradigm” and “scientific racism” to smear genetic explanations for racial running differences, discouraging research. propagation Books like Superior and Skin Deep spread denial through popular science writing and reviews in Nature, framing genetic inquiry as racist. propagation The assumption spread through BBC articles and media rituals every Olympics, quoting sociologists to frame racial sports divides as mental or social rather than genetic. policy Colonial Virginia enacted race-based laws giving legal rights to indentured Europeans not extended to enslaved Africans. By 1691 interracial marriage was prohibited to prevent racial mixing. policy Mandatory diversity, inclusion, and equity programs were imposed nationally across all stages of academic medicine and cardiology, from students to faculty, to increase Black and Hispanic represent... policy Post-WWII laws banned eugenic sterilizations and research funding based on eugenics being pseudoscience. ...and 13 more
Flynn Effect Shows Real IQ Gains contested Mean IQ scores rose substantially during the 20th century due to a genuine increase in the capacity for intelligence.	Raw IQ score increases of 35 points from 1920 to 2013 seemed to prove rising intelligence; the data generated sub-beliefs in better nutrition or abstract thinking, but gains likely reflected test f... Framingham Heart Study MRIs showed brain volume rising 1.7cc per decade for men and 1.2cc for women across birth cohorts; this seemed credible as direct measure of intelligence capacity but was mis... Autopsy studies from UK and Germany showed brain weight rising from mid-19th to mid-20th century; credible as physical measure but biased by early disproportionate sampling of criminals and charity... Estonian anthropometric survey showed no cranial volume increase in mandatory student measurements; higher cranial girls had fewer children, contradicting fertility selection for smaller brains. ...and 30 more	propagation Academic literature and IQ researchers spread the assumption through debates naming it the Flynn effect and citing periodic score surges as proof of intelligence gains. propagation Test publishers' manuals propagated assumption via norming tables showing correlations without highlighting generational score inflation on prior versions. propagation The Flynn Effect spread through academic articles, books by Flynn and Nisbett, and as the most cited idea in the culture-only arsenal against hereditarian views on race-IQ differences. policy The Flynn Effect impacted institutional practices in mental testing for education, military, employment selection, and clinical psychology by promising subpopulation IQ gaps would close. policy US intellectual disability diagnosis uses IQ below 70 cutoff partly for special education eligibility; test renorming due to Flynn Effect causes abrupt eligibility shifts. policy Learning disability diagnosis requires marked IQ higher than achievement score; renorming shrinks gaps, altering eligibility for special education supports. ...and 23 more
Trauma Causes Borderline Personality Disorder emerging Borderline personality disorder is mostly caused by childhood trauma, especially sexual abuse.	The environmentalist hypothesis claims childhood trauma causally determines BPD with dose-dependent effects and low heritability; it seemed credible from correlational studies but ignores genetic c... Biosocial hypothesis posits gene-environment interaction where trauma causes BPD only in those with diathesis; credible from some models but refuted by studies showing spurious correlation via gene... Theories like betrayal trauma argued caregivers as trauma source cause BPD; seemed reasonable from attachment ideas but downstream belief in trauma-spectrum BPD ignores high heritability evidence. Van der Kolk's 1994 paper 'The Body keeps the Score: Memory and the evolving Psychobiology of Post Traumatic Stress' argued trauma memories are stored somatically with physiological arousal and dis... ...and 22 more	propagation Van der Kolk's book blended anecdote, myth, and science to spread the trauma myth, achieving bestseller status and effusive reviews calling it groundbreaking. propagation Google search for 'Trauma and borderline personality disorder' yields over 9 million results, reflecting widespread academic and public propagation. propagation Van der Kolk spread somatic trauma ideas through trainings for mental health professionals, educators, policymakers, and law enforcement. policy Move toward destigmatizing BPD views sufferers as trauma victims rather than responsible for misfortune, influencing clinical and social approaches. policy National Child Traumatic Stress Network (NCTSN) was established as a Congressionally mandated initiative in response to van der Kolk's efforts, funding 150 centers for trauma interventions includin... policy NCTSN, initiated by van der Kolk, funded centers addressing trauma-linked disorders like BPD in children and adults. ...and 12 more
Beauty is in the Eye of the Beholder emerging There is no objective standard of attractiveness; it all depends on who is looking and their personal and cultural point of view.	The saying 'beauty is in the eye of the beholder' supported the belief in no objective attractiveness standards, seeming credible from cultural relativism but ignoring evolutionary selection for he... Flimsy research over 50 years old claimed diet has nothing to do with acne, seeming authoritative in dermatology but contradicted by absence of acne in non-western diets and modern links to sugar a... Facial asymmetry indicated parasitic infections and instability, making symmetrical faces preferred as health signals. Inflammation from immune response quickly lowered attractiveness ratings, showing disease detection as an adaptation. ...and 16 more	propagation The subjective view of beauty spread through the popular saying 'beauty is in the eye of the beholder,' emphasizing personal and cultural factors over biology. propagation The maxim spread as received wisdom within and between cultures, especially citing dissimilar cultural standards. propagation The maxim reflects received wisdom that attractiveness matters only for first impressions, not familiarity. policy Cosmetic surgery practices normalized procedures targeting vague ideals, driven by social media and halo effect beliefs. policy The stereotype influenced professional practices in rehabilitation and psychology, where workers downplayed beauty's role to advocate for disabled clients. ...and 8 more
Honest Race Discussion Bad Strategy contested Openly discussing race differences in intelligence and outcomes repels allies, alienates voters, and weakens efforts against progressivism.	Belief that races have equal average intelligence seemed credible via elite taboos and environmental claims, generating sub-beliefs like socioeconomic status or systematic racism fully explaining g... Cultural explanations like degenerate hip-hop culture causing disparities seemed reasonable but were misleading as they deferred causality without explaining why blacks promote it over successful a... The core tenet of social justice leftism holds that all disparities cutting against black citizens prove racism; this seemed credible given America's history but generated sub-beliefs that tests ar... Verbally skilled journalists and academics believed reality came from words, so ignoring unpleasant facts made them vanish; this propped up silence on IQ and generated beliefs that open talk harms ... ...and 21 more	propagation Social pressure via taboos made honesty about noticing heretical, with elites forbidding alternative explanations to white supremacy. propagation The taboo drove conservative self-restraint, pushing reliance on equally unpalatable cultural narratives amid fears of alienating voters. propagation The assumption spread as the central premise of destructive leftism and the woke underpinnings of the civil rights regime through elite institutions. policy The civil rights regime maintains widespread pro-black racial preferences justified by Rawlsian redress for undeserved inequalities, including native endowments. policy Post-Floyd racial reckoning measures enacted in 2020 reduced policing based on the assumption. policy The US pursued nation-building in Iraq starting in 2003, based on the assumption that Middle Eastern societies could rapidly develop civic virtues compatible with democracy. ...and 26 more
Biden Not Suffering From Cognitive Decline contested Concerns that Joe Biden is experiencing cognitive decline or senility constitute a false narrative spread by misinformation.	Researchers cited an expansive definition of misinformation including 'placing facts in a misleading context' and thematic coding of images as depicting Biden as senile; this seemed credible in aca... Fact-checks claiming Biden is not senile propped up the assumption, cited by experts as evidence against the narrative despite public video evidence; this misled by conflating clear falsehoods with... Personal interactions and recent meetings were cited as evidence Biden was sharp and coherent, propping up the belief despite anecdotes of lapses like not recognizing Clooney; these sub-beliefs ign... Fact-checkers treated opinions, jokes, and predictions like Biden senility memes or basement hiding as factual claims subject to debunking, relying on expert assertions that Biden was not infirm de... ...and 8 more	propagation Academic papers and misinformation experts spread the assumption by classifying visual jokes about Biden's age as misinformation more prevalent on the right. propagation Liberal echo chambers and social media circulated narratives denying Biden's decline, mirroring the right-wing chambers they criticized. propagation Top Democrats spread the assumption through public interviews on CNN, Politico, CBS Face the Nation, and DNC speeches, framing Biden as sharp based on private access. policy Democrats allowed Biden to run unopposed in primaries and clinch the nomination based on assurances of his fitness, leading to his July 2024 suspension and Harris handover. policy Facebook enacted policies using third-party fact-checkers to label and suppress content deemed misinformation, including ideological views. policy The Department of Homeland Security created the Disinformation Governance Board to coordinate misinformation efforts, with media assuming it would protect speech. ...and 16 more
Disinformation Research is Apolitical contested Anti-disinformation efforts are an unbiased, politically neutral enterprise concerned with detecting and combatting lies.	Disinformation derives from Soviet 'dezinformatsiya', defined as false reports to mislead public opinion, originally a political tool against capitalists; modern Big Disinfo claims objective use bu... Misinformation as 'false or misleading information' and disinformation as intentional; definitions inconsistent and confused, enabling biased application. GDI's claim of providing independent, neutral, and transparent data seemed credible due to State Department funding and anti-disinformation mission, but generated sub-belief that gender-critical vi... GDI's ratings system deemed challenges to transgender self-ID as harmful disinformation, propped up by claims of expertise from intelligence and think-tank backgrounds, generating sub-belief that d... ...and 27 more	propagation Post-2016 media and academia filled with 'misinformation age', 'post-truth era'; Oxford's 'Post-truth' word of 2016, Collins' 'Fake news' 2017, Time's 'Is Truth Dead?' cover. propagation World Economic Forum's global risk report listed misinformation top threat ahead of nuclear war. propagation GDI spread its ratings through government bodies and funding incentives, including US State Department support. policy Governments, tech companies use Big Disinfo classifications for content flagging and censorship. policy GDI's dynamic exclusion list targeted publications like UnHerd for exclusion based on labeled disinformation. policy UK government partly funded GDI, enabling its ad-starving mission against deemed disinformation. ...and 52 more
Israel Serves US Strategic Interests contested Unwavering US support for Israel advances American national security and interests in the Middle East.	Believers cited shared strategic interests during the Cold War, like containing Soviets, and post-9/11 terror threats as reasons for support. These generated sub-beliefs that Israel's enemies are A... Moral arguments portrayed Israel as weak underdog, democracy amid dictators, deserving special treatment post-Holocaust. In reality, Israel holds military superiority, and conduct offers no basis t... Proponents cited intelligence-sharing and Israel as critical for U.S. interests, but the Gaza war showed negative effects outweighing any value. Intelligence sharing and counterterrorism cooperation were cited as key contributions; seemed credible from joint operations history but overstated net U.S. gains amid regional blowback. ...and 17 more	propagation The lobby convinced Americans that US and Israeli interests are identical through domestic politics. propagation The assumption spread through bipartisan political support and lobbying influence in Washington. propagation Think tank policy analysis reports spread the assumption through expert endorsements and calls for deeper cooperation. policy Since 1976, US provides Israel over $140 billion total aid, $3 billion yearly, early disbursement with interest, 25% for own industry, no accounting, plus weapons and intel access denied to NATO al... policy US vetoed 32 UN Security Council resolutions critical of Israel since 1982, blocks IAEA on nuclear arsenal, resupplies in wars, backs in negotiations. policy The U.S. provides Israel $3.8 billion annually in military aid plus arms deals, approved over 100 sales since October 7, 2023, vetoed UN cease-fires, and passed $14 billion more. ...and 25 more
Trump Colluded With Russia strong Donald Trump colluded with Russia during the 2016 election.	Early 2017 stories on Trump-Russia relied on anonymous sources, uncorroborated or debunked information per later FBI documents, and the Steele dossier, which seemed credible due to Steele's MI6 bac... Steele's tried-and-tested network of Russian sources provided the core evidence, deemed credible because a spy getting 70 percent right is elite, generating sub-beliefs in kompromat like the pee ta... The dossier consisted of 17 unverified memos labeled as 'raw intelligence – not established facts,' yet treated as a credible starting point alleging a 'well-developed conspiracy' of Trump-Russia c... Dossier alleged Russia sought to damage Clinton and aid Trump via a conspiracy with his campaign, with variable corroboration: general interference confirmed, but specific cooperation claims not. ...and 7 more	propagation Mainstream media amplified flawed Trump-Russia stories, producing over half a million articles during Mueller's tenure, boosting revenues from clicks while Clinton campaign promoted the conspiracy. propagation BuzzFeed News spread the assumption by publishing the full dossier in January 2017 against Steele's wishes, sparking controversy. propagation CNN coverage by Carl Bernstein helped break news of the dossier's existence, amplifying its claims. policy Mueller special counsel investigation into Trump-Russia collusion lasted two years based on the narrative from media and dossier leads. policy FBI pursued Steele's findings after he alerted them in late summer 2016, incorporating dossier info despite their probe predating it, leading to FISA warrants and Mueller investigation. policy The dossier informed FISA warrants and the Crossfire Hurricane investigation into Trump-Russia ties. ...and 12 more
Clinton Has 85 Percent Chance of Winning contested Statistical models from social science accurately predict election outcomes with high probability.	Statistical regressions and demographic aggregations from academics propped up predictions as reliable signals amid noise, generating sub-belief in polling data accuracy despite shy voter issues. State polling averages from high-quality surveys in the final three weeks were cited as reliable, showing Clinton leads in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Maine; they were mislead... National polling averages were seen as accurate predictors since they missed by only a few points; this generated sub-belief that state errors would balance out nationally, ignoring electoral colle... Media treated the National Hurricane Center’s cone of uncertainty, covering two-thirds of possible landfalls, as precise enough for city-level predictions; this generated sub-belief that forecasts ... ...and 10 more	propagation Newspapers and television broadcasts spread the predictions nationwide, building public consensus on Clinton's win. propagation Forecasters built personal brands, ran websites, and sold books based on detecting future signals, incentivizing overconfidence. propagation Media outlets propagated the assumption by publicizing Clinton's leads in high-quality state surveys and high victory probabilities from forecasts. policy Academic hiring, tenure, and grants relied on publication counts and journal prestige without vetting replicability, allocating resources to weak research. policy Social science research informed policy via left-leaning framings in policy-proximal disciplines like public administration and public health, presumed neutral despite 90 percent left orientation. policy Policy-proximal disciplines like economics and political science influenced public policy with left-leaning research, moderating briefly 1970-1990 before shifting left again post-1990. ...and 13 more
There is no housing bubble (2008) strong Rising housing prices before 2008 reflected economic fundamentals with no bubble present.	Economic logic and models were cited to prove no bubble existed and prices reflected fundamentals; these failed when the market crashed. Home values can be estimated from rent data as the present value of future rental cash flows; this seemed credible using matched rent-sale data but was misleading because it ignored speculation, le... Housing price-to-income ratios and regression models assuming past prices equaled fundamentals propped up bubble denial; these generated sub-beliefs that rapid rises just corrected prior undervalua... Conventional metrics like price-to-rent and price-to-income ratios mislead because they ignore real long-term interest rates and local long-run house price growth differences; this seemed credible ... ...and 12 more	propagation Popular media like the Wall Street Journal spread economists' assurances of no bubble to anxious homebuyers. propagation Academic publications like Brookings Papers spread the no-bubble view by critiquing indirect evidence and promoting rent-based valuations over price indexes. propagation Media outlets like Barron’s and The New York Times propagated bubble warnings, countered by academic analyses questioning bubblemetrics. policy Low Federal Reserve interest rates were treated as a fundamental justifying high prices. The paper's logic aligned with Fed policy to maintain low rates into 2006. policy Hirschman and Popp Berman documented how economists' views politically affect policies, including downplaying bubble risks. ...and 11 more
Economics Explains Everything contested Economic models with unrealistic assumptions accurately predict economic outcomes and human behavior across all domains.	Friedman's methodology held that unrealistic assumptions are acceptable if models predict accurately, seeming credible by analogy to physics but misleading as it propped up overconfidence in predic... Rational choice theory and econometrics spread to other fields like political science and psychology, generating sub-belief that markets represent timeless, unbiased science. Neoclassical economics, emphasizing individual rationality and utility maximization, seemed credible as the dominant university-taught approach but generated sub-beliefs like rational economic man ... Economics seen as science like physics or chemistry with one correct answer; this generated sub-belief in infallible markets and solved depressions, credible via textbooks and Nobel authority but w... ...and 17 more	propagation Undergraduate programs in economics, accounting, and business disseminated laissez-faire economics as neutral science to generations. propagation Popular books like Freakonomics spread the idea that economics explains diverse behaviors from crime to philanthropy. propagation Economic ideas spread through policymakers across parties agreeing education's primary purpose is economic, influencing reforms like merit pay and school choice. policy Laissez-faire policies drew from popular economic theory, influencing public and private sectors despite failed predictions. policy Merit pay, school choice, and standardized assessment policies were enacted based on economic assumptions of rational decision-making and market operations. policy The assumption justified great government intervention in the economy, including the New Deal under FDR. ...and 17 more
Chemical Imbalance Causes Depression contested Depression stems from a chemical imbalance in the brain that antidepressants correct through biological mechanisms.	The chemical-imbalance theory portrayed depression as a materialistic brain issue, credible via expert authority and ads, but generated sub-beliefs in neurochemical fixes for malaise; studies later... Two meta-analyses of studies on the serotonin metabolite 5-HIAA found no association with depression. These were cited as evidence for low serotonin in depression but showed no link. Meta-analyses of plasma serotonin in cohort studies showed no relationship with depression. Lowered serotonin was linked to antidepressant use, not depression itself. Meta-analyses of 5-HT1A receptor binding and SERT levels showed weak inconsistent evidence of reduced binding. This would suggest increased serotonin availability if causal, but prior antidepressan... ...and 8 more	propagation Direct-to-consumer advertising spread biological views of depression after deregulation, simplifying technical discourses for mass audiences. propagation The theory spread to the public through SSRI marketing and media. Surveys showed 80% or more believed depression was a chemical imbalance. propagation General practitioners and textbooks continued to endorse the theory. Popular websites cited it widely. policy In the 1980s and 1990s, U.S. government deregulated pharmaceutical direct-to-consumer advertising, based on the economic model of rational consumers handling mental health drugs. policy The theory provided justification for antidepressant use, leading to widespread prescribing of SSRIs as standard treatment. policy Federal funding shifted from community psychiatry to biological reductionism, dominating American psychiatry and enabling psychopharmacology grants under figures like Gerald Klerman. ...and 11 more
The End of History strong Liberal democracy is the endpoint of mankind’s ideological evolution and final form of human government.	Fukuyama's directional mechanism assumed universal evolution to liberal democracy, credible post-Soviet but generated sub-belief in inevitable U.S.-led progress. Hegelian dialectic ended with no rival universal ideology seemed credible post-communism but generated sub-belief in inevitable global convergence. Hegel's dialectic of history as purposeful progression through stages of consciousness to an absolute rational state seemed credible from his modern social science language and linking social forms... Kojève's interpretation that Napoleon's 1806 Battle of Jena victory marked history's end with universalization of liberty and equality seemed credible from Hegel's Phenomenology but misled by ignor... ...and 14 more	propagation Fukuyama's book popularized the idea amid 1990s liberal triumph, influencing public view of U.S. power as enlightenment. propagation Popularized via Fukuyama's book and think tank adoption in 1990s policy discourse. propagation The assumption spread through Kojève's Paris seminars influencing intellectuals like Jean-Paul Sartre and Raymond Aron. policy Bush's war on terror policies drew on End of History framing, with Fukuyama supporting military action against terrorism and Saddam. policy Neoconservative push for democracy export in 2000s Middle East interventions rested on end of history confidence. policy Policies forcefully exporting liberal democracy into countries were enacted based on the assumption it is the ideal form. ...and 15 more
History is Class Struggle contested Social dynamics dominated by conflict, as all history is class struggles.	Conflict dominance claimed social dynamics as class struggles, credible from historical materialism but wrong as it ignores cooperation and generates sub-belief that prosecuting conflict is ultimat... History is produced by class conflicts, not ideas; this seemed credible from economic analysis like David Ricardo's conflicting interests but was wrong by oversimplifying causation and generating s... Historical materialism holds society is determined by material conditions for basic needs like food and clothing; cited as explaining progressions but misleading by reducing all change to economic ... Marxist theory of economic base determining superstructure made society seem rigidly determined by economics, ignoring free will and culture. ...and 13 more	propagation Spread via moral urgency to coordinate liberation fighters against oppressors. propagation Marxist historiography spread through writings of Marx and Engels to scholars analyzing history via class conflict. propagation Academic and political endorsement spread the idea that capitalism was unstable and revolution inevitable. policy Dictatorships of activist bureaucracy enacted in Party-States based on conflict prosecution. policy Proletarian revolution in Russia in 1917 overthrew the government, enacted based on Marxist prediction of class struggle leading to socialism. policy Ideology spread to China under Mao Tse Tung, leading to communist takeover based on class conflict theory. ...and 16 more
Myers-Briggs Reveals True Personality strong The Myers-Briggs Type Indicator reliably measures personality and predicts job performance, compatibility, and life outcomes by sorting people into 16	MBTI relied on Jung's 1921 Psychological Types and binary categories with 93 forced-choice questions, seeming credible due to appealing type names and celebrity matches but misleading because trait... MBTI rests on Jung's theory of discrete personality types, which seemed reasonable from his psychoanalytic influence but was empirically unsubstantiated; it generated sub-beliefs in exactly 16 type... MBTI assumes personality falls into discrete categories like religion rather than continua like height, which seemed intuitive for simplicity but contradicts evidence from Big 5 and HEXACO models s... MBTI rests on Jung’s theory of psychological types with four dichotomous preference pairs, which seemed credible due to historical linkage to Jung, widespread adoption, and claims of distinguishing... ...and 16 more	propagation The assumption spread through corporate use, LinkedIn profiles, dating apps like Tinder, and media like New York Times wedding announcements. propagation MBTI spread through corporate and government adoption as a tool for career and team assessment, becoming a multimillion-dollar industry with 1.5 million annual users. propagation MBTI spread through higher education research, counseling, human resource management, and medical education via institutional adoption for decision-making, communication enhancement, and diversity ... policy Fortune 500 companies enacted institutional hiring practices using MBTI to screen and evaluate employees. policy Fortune 100 companies and government agencies enacted institutional practices using MBTI for hiring and team building based on its assumed validity. policy University of Oklahoma Health Sciences Center occupational therapy and physical therapy programs enacted MBTI-based institutional practices since at least 2017, including curriculum teaching of 16 ... ...and 23 more
Mass Graves Found at Residential Schools emerging Ground-penetrating radar discovered mass graves of hundreds of Indigenous children at former residential school sites.	Ground-penetrating radar detected 'soil anomalies' interpreted as 200+ human remains at Kamloops and similar at 20 other sites; seemed credible due to poor historical health conditions at schools b... Denialists promoted the sub-belief that no missing or disappeared children exist and no unmarked or mass graves are present, despite well-documented thousands of deaths; this seemed credible throug... Many Canadians believed no atrocities occurred due to idealized history, ignoring Survivor knowledge of deaths in unmarked graves; this generated sub-belief in low death tolls despite TRC evidence. The 2021 Kamloops announcement of 215 potential unmarked graves via GPR was cited as evidence of missing children, seeming credible due to technical expertise but misleading as it indicated anomali... ...and 13 more	propagation Media headlines used 'mass graves' phrasing, leading to worldwide condemnation and protests. propagation Progressive media and academia defended the narrative by policing language and labeling critics as 'residential school denialism.' propagation TRC Calls to Action 71-76 received little public attention or government response before the 2021 Kamloops announcement, allowing the assumption to persist through official inaction. policy Prime Minister Trudeau ordered flags at half-staff nationwide to honor the supposed victims. policy Government funded a committee to locate graves at residential school sites until quietly ending it in 2025. policy Federal government failed to implement TRC Calls to Action 71-76, which required collaborative efforts to release records, research burial locations, inform families, and fund Indigenous-led search... ...and 25 more
Peer Review Filters for Quality emerging Peer review reliably filters scientific manuscripts for methodological quality through objective inter-rater agreement among reviewers.	Peer review relies on inter-rater reliability as a basic measure of filtering for quality, but meta-analyses show mean IRR of 0.34 for continuous measures across 44 studies, dropping to 0.20 after ... Confirmation bias leads reviewers to favor papers matching their schools of thought, with a meta-analysis of 51 experiments showing r = +0.245 effect across >18,000 participants, applicable to scie... Historical waterfall model seemed credible for sequential development and testing but propped up belief in adequacy despite lacking flexibility for complex software. Commercial software testing tools were viewed as sufficient infrastructure across testing stages, but lacked automation and standardization making them misleading. ...and 23 more	propagation Academic norms propagate the assumption through journal practices and editor assignments, where better reviewers go to promising papers and networks influence ratings. propagation Software development practices propagated assumption via widespread use of waterfall model and commercial tools in industry. propagation Peer review spread as essential principle via institutional reports and journals, framing it as competent judgment despite known low agreement. policy Journals require peer review for publication decisions, using 1-4 quality scales despite low IRR, controlling for h-index and coauthor networks but still finding systematic bias. policy NIST Acquisition and Assistance Division allocated resources for economic analysis of testing, reflecting institutional recognition of infrastructure role in standards. policy Journals base publication decisions on peer review ratings, despite low IRR leading to inconsistent outcomes. ...and 14 more
Racial Demographic Change Will Not Cause Upheaval emerging Racial and ethnic demographic change in Western nations is inherently manageable and will not produce significant social disruption.	Belief that Western birth rates far below replacement would cause population fall and ageing crisis seemed credible from initial low fertility data but misled by ignoring upward trends, immigration... Contact theory held that more time with other groups builds understanding and harmony; Putnam's data showed no such bonds formed in diverse communities. Conflict theory predicted tension from proxi... Diversity was propped up as a civic strength by multicultural festivals and leaders' statements; downstream belief was that differences foster unity, but study showed uniform civic decline across m... Media reports omitted 'non-Hispanic' from white population decline, distorting projections; relied on fixed Census racial categories despite their fluidity and mismatch with lived experience. ...and 41 more	propagation The assumption spread through widespread writing and commentary portraying demographic trends as a population time-bomb for the West. propagation Political leaders and media promoted diversity as strengthening civic life amid immigration and school admissions debates. propagation Conservatives cited Putnam's study to argue against large-scale immigration's harm to social fabric. policy Western societies raised retirement ages and implemented other measures to handle rising pension costs for ageing populations based on the assumption. policy Immigration policies and race-based school admissions proceeded on assumption diversity boosts civic health, despite Putnam's evidence of challenges. policy Immigration policies focused on social issues over numbers, as per Ofii stance, leading to debates avoiding raw inflow controls. ...and 73 more
Black on White Crime Not a Major Issue emerging Black on White crime in the United States is not a socially important issue.	Federal statutes like VOCA assumed unbiased allocation, but pervasive stereotypes led to less compensation for Black victims; this seemed credible under anti-discrimination laws like Title VI, gene... The mainstream narrative held that whites were the aggressors against purely unfortunate minorities, propping up the belief that interracial crimes by non-whites were insignificant; this seemed cre... Mainstream media maintained nearly total silence on atrocities by blacks, Arabs, or Hispanics, propping up the belief that whites alone aggressed while generating sub-belief that minorities were un... The narrative that White people are racist propped up the belief that anti-White slurs and threats like 'Denmark will be outbred by brown people and “exterminated”' or 'This is a Brown country' or ... ...and 48 more	propagation Public narratives required victims to be deemed 'innocent' for relief, reinforced by federal policies and agency practices, spreading through criminal justice administration. propagation Mainstream media maintained nearly total silence for years on atrocities committed by blacks, Arabs, or Hispanics, shaping public perception that such crimes were not noteworthy. propagation Anti-racist themed movies and leftist colleges reinforced the view by focusing exclusively on white racism, omitting non-white atrocities. policy Victims of Crime Act (VOCA) Fund and related federal programs allocated resources based on assumption of racial neutrality, leading to biased outcomes in compensation for Black and minority victims. policy Federal data programs like UCR and NCVS operated under limited race/ethnicity measurement, failing to fully capture disparities and inform equitable victim services. policy DOJ National Victimization Report stopped providing accessible racial breakdowns of crime since Obama took office, based on the assumption that such data was unimportant. ...and 73 more
Multiculturalism Builds Social Harmony emerging Multiculturalism successfully manages ethnic diversity by fostering harmony through separate communities sharing a national myth.	Multiculturalism as melting pot retains separate communities that mix in state schooling under shared national myth like British Values. It seemed credible post-1968 but fails as immigration scales... Three models of community management: integration at low immigration, multiculturalism at medium, milletisation at high where communities self-govern internally. The belief that multiculturalism imported conflicting cultures requiring speech curbs seemed credible due to visible foreign hatreds and enclaves, but was misleading as Australia was multi-ethnic b... Preserving Turkish language and culture while learning German suffices for integration, as Turks contribute economically without needing assimilation; seemed credible from 40 years of guest worker ... ...and 5 more	propagation State narrative control via coordinated messaging and counter-protests spread multiculturalism after initial riots, reminiscent of Covid years. propagation Ulster operates millet system for century with loyalist groups like UDA, UVF as community leaders police deal with. propagation Politicians like Minns propagated the assumption through public statements defending speech limits as necessary for multicultural peace. policy Schools like Michaela enforce multiculturalism by requiring sacrifices such as vegetarian food and no prayer rooms to mix children without division by race or religion. policy NSW Parliament passed hate speech laws rushed through without inquiry, justified by a fabricated crisis to constrain speech for multicultural harmony. policy Redistricting maps discussed in meeting aimed to maximize Latino districts, based on assumption of equitable minority coalition; process tainted by racism. ...and 7 more
Undocumented Immigrants Number 11 Million emerging There are approximately 11 million undocumented immigrants residing in the United States.	The 11.3 million undocumented immigrant estimate, extrapolated from the Census Bureau’s annual American Community Survey, was treated as accurate and comprehensive for three decades. It seemed cred... Undocumented population growth peaked in 1990s-early 2000s and stabilized post-2008, but surveys captured only part of it, generating sub-belief in low inflows/outflows. Removal statistics since May 12, including over 460,000 individuals removed or returned and over thirty repatriation flights in recent weeks, propped up the belief in effective quick removals; thes... Resolution claimed a 'just and compassionate path to legal status' for undocumented with borders secured seemed biblically grounded but ignored harms to citizens and rewarded lawbreaking. ...and 7 more	propagation The 11.3 million figure spread as the unquestioned center of immigration debates through media, policy discussions, and academic studies for decades. propagation ICE propagated the assumption through an official fact sheet and press release, including b-roll footage and public service announcements shared publicly. propagation Intense convention debate and adoption spread the assumption through Baptist churches, encouraging evangelism regardless of status. policy Immigration enforcement, resource allocation, amnesty debates, and service provisions were scaled based on the 11.3 million figure. policy ICE conducted removal flights for single adults and family units to Central America, Cuba, Haiti, and Venezuela, based on the assumption of quick processing and removal consistent with U.S. law. policy SBC resolution urged authorities to create legal path for undocumented and churches to minister without regard to status, influencing denominational practices. ...and 10 more
DEI Drives Business Success emerging DEI initiatives improve corporate performance, attract talent, and pose no significant legal or reputational risks.	DEI efforts were propped up by beliefs in their business benefits like innovation and talent attraction, but these ignored downstream risks of discrimination claims against white and male workers. Corporate DEI policies were treated as compliant with federal law until challenged as unlawful employment practices; seemed credible as standard inclusion efforts but misleading as they allegedly d... Fellowship programs targeting diverse applicants seemed credible as standard corporate DEI practice to increase representation; they were misleading because they excluded or disadvantaged other rac... The belief that companies must be 'anti-racist' rather than merely 'not racist' propped up the assumption, presented as a credible response to systemic racial prejudice but now edited out amid cont... ...and 16 more	propagation The assumption spread through corporate adoption and lack of risk disclosure in filings until recent political and legal shifts. propagation Ex-Trump officials used letters to the EEOC to challenge corporate DEI as illegal, prompting agency scrutiny. propagation Corporate filings propagated the assumption by using anti-racist language as standard diversity commitments post-2020. policy Corporate DEI programs including hiring goals, trainings, and metrics were implemented as standard institutional practices based on the low-risk business enhancement assumption. policy Major corporations including Activision Blizzard, Kellogg, Morgan Stanley, PricewaterhouseCoopers, and McDonald’s adopted DEI policies assumed to align with anti-discrimination law. policy Pfizer's pre-2023 fellowship program used race-based requirements restricting eligibility to certain racial backgrounds to promote diversity. ...and 30 more
Black Doctors Double Black Newborn Survival emerging For high-risk Black newborns, having a Black physician more than doubles the likelihood that the baby will live.	The 2020 study on Florida newborns seemed credible as evidence that Black physicians dramatically improve Black infant outcomes, but it actually showed only a halving of the mortality gap relative ... HLA genes code for proteins inherited within ethnic groups, with some ethnic groups having more complex tissue types that reduce match likelihood from non-matching ethnic donors. Patients from underrepresented ethnic groups like those with African American ancestry face particular difficulty finding matches, especially for sickle cell disease. The belief that Atlanta's black mayors represented black competence and economic progress for blacks seemed credible due to the city's economic boom and civil rights legacy, but it generated the su... ...and 8 more	propagation The false claim spread through an amicus brief by medical colleges cited in Jackson's Supreme Court dissent, influencing judicial arguments on affirmative action. propagation Medical organizations like NMDP promote ethnic-specific recruitment campaigns to counter historical underrepresentation in donor pools. propagation The assumption spread through Atlanta's self-image as a black political powerhouse and civil rights hub, reinforced by media and strategists portraying black mayors as symbols of black excellence. policy Race-based college admissions policies, including in medical schools, were justified in part by claims that racial diversity directly improves health outcomes like Black infant mortality. policy NMDP conducts targeted recruitment by ethnicity to increase registry diversity and improve match equity for underrepresented patients. policy Affirmative action policies under Maynard Jackson gave black residents jobs and neighborhood institutions, based on the assumption that black leadership would ensure broad black economic advancement. ...and 12 more
The 1619 Project is Historically Accurate emerging The year 1619 marks the true founding of the United States because the arrival of the first enslaved Africans made slavery central to American history	The claim that 'one of the primary reasons the colonists decided to declare their independence from Britain was because they wanted to protect the institution of slavery' seemed credible from selec... The framing that 1619 was the 'true founding' generated sub-beliefs linking slavery to modern capitalism, prisons, healthcare, and traffic, presented as causal. The arrival of more than 20 enslaved Africans in Virginia in 1619 is the true founding event of America, as no aspect of the country has been untouched by slavery; this generated sub-beliefs linkin... The 1619 Project framed US history as starting from 1619, the landing of enslaved Africans in Virginia, with slavery touching every aspect of modern American life; this seemed credible from Pulitze... ...and 3 more	propagation The project spread through The New York Times Magazine issue, school curricula, podcasts, books, and Hulu documentary, reaching wide audiences including students. propagation Awards like the Pulitzer Prize for Commentary to Hannah-Jones amplified the project's claims in academic and journalistic circles. propagation The project propagated through podcasts, books, Smithsonian symposia, reader responses, and free educational curricula via 1619education.org. policy The 1619 Project Curriculum was developed and distributed to schools, museums, and libraries, influencing history education. policy The project produced free curricula and guides for teachers to reframe slavery in schools, claiming existing teaching was 'educational malpractice'. policy Schools adopted 1619 Project lesson plans in response to student demands for anti-racist curricula addressing slavery and white supremacy. ...and 7 more
Students Benefit from Integrated Schools emerging Students benefit academically and socially from racially integrated schools.	District 3 schools were segregated despite overall district diversity, propping up the belief that reserving seats for low-income minorities would integrate and benefit students; this overlooked do... Opposition to desegregation plans by white parents reflects implicit bias requiring training; seemed credible from heated public meetings but misleading as even plan supporters felt targeted by rhe... Cultural and linguistic liaisons would bridge gaps for Somali refugees, many with no prior education, malnutrition, and trauma; seemed credible from family hires and federal ELL recognition but fai... Adjustments like English academies, paraprofessionals, and global curricula would enable Somali students to catch up academically; downstream belief generated special priority for structure over co... ...and 5 more	propagation Chancellor Carranza propagated the assumption via public statements and tweets highlighting opposition from white parents to frame integration as beneficial. propagation Carranza spread the assumption via public tweet sharing accusatory headline and radio defense urging training on supportive parent. propagation Federal civil rights settlement and U.S. Department of Education recognition propagated the assumption that schools were becoming welcoming and effective for Somali students. policy NYC DOE policy reserved 25% of middle school seats in District 3 for low-income students with low test scores to achieve desegregation based on integration benefits. policy NYC allocated $23 million in 2018 budget for anti-implicit bias and culturally relevant pedagogy training for teachers and suggested for parents to support desegregation efforts. policy St. Cloud district implemented bilingual specialists, prayer accommodations, pork-free menus, hijab sports uniforms, and harassment reporting under 2011 settlement based on integration assumption. ...and 5 more
Overpopulation Will Cause Mass Starvation emerging Population increases in geometric progression while food production increases only in arithmetic progression, inevitably leading to famine and poverty	Malthus's core argument that population tends to grow geometrically (doubling every 25 years) while food supply grows arithmetically seemed credible from historical patterns of plenty leading to di... The Malthusian Law of Population claimed growing population lowers wages and causes poverty, propped by observations of labor surplus, generating sub-belief that poor relief creates dependency. Overpopulation from postwar baby booms would cause famine and environmental collapse unless checked by ZPG; this seemed credible amid 1960s pollution and African famine but was wrong as Green Revol... Ehrlich's The Population Bomb cited overpopulation exceeding food limits as inevitable mass starvation; it seemed credible via Malthusian logic and his academic status but was wrong as agricultural... ...and 7 more	propagation The book's publication fueled debate about population size in Britain, spreading through revised editions and influencing Darwin and Wallace. propagation ZPG spread via environmentalism, feminism, and university activism like Yale, linking growth to societal threats and gaining media traction post-Population Bomb. propagation Ehrlich spread the assumption through frequent media appearances, including about 20 times on The Tonight Show with Johnny Carson. policy The Census Act 1800 was passed to enable national censuses in England, Wales, and Scotland starting 1801, based on Malthus's warnings about population growth. policy Malthus proposed gradual abolition of poor laws, arguing they raised commodity prices and undermined peasant independence. policy ZPG movement pushed family planning policies and birth control promotion to reach demographic balance, influencing U.S. debates on fertility and immigration controls. ...and 15 more
High-profile Hate Crime Allegations are Likely True emerging High-profile hate crime allegations are presumptively true because systemic racism makes them statistically expected.	Racial and class dynamics made white lacrosse players inherently guilty of exploiting a black stripper, seeming credible due to campus activism but wrong as DNA proved no contact. The accuser's claim that three white Duke lacrosse players raped her at a party seemed credible amid national attention but was contradicted by DNA tests failing to link any players to her. The accuser's account was supported by broken red fingernails found in the house matching her claim of clawing an attacker, nurse and physician observations of symptoms consistent with assault, sto... The victim's claims and medical records showing injuries consistent with vaginal and anal rape propped up the assumption, along with reports of racial slurs and players' prior minor infractions sug... ...and 36 more	propagation The false assumption spread through college campuses, waking up a generation to anti-white hatred. propagation Media, professors, and activists spread the assumption through protests, teach-ins, and statements framing it as white supremacy. propagation Local media like the Durham Herald-Sun and The Duke Chronicle reported on the investigation delays, DA statements, threats, and police actions, amplifying tensions around the alleged rape. policy Duke canceled lacrosse season and accepted coach resignation based on the rape assumption. policy Durham and Duke police substantially increased patrol coverage in areas like Trinity Park, Ninth Street, and East Campus due to threats linked to the lacrosse case; police also stopped and searched... policy Nifong continued the rape inquiry without filing charges, despite DNA evidence, as his May 2 election approached. ...and 70 more
Income Inequality Drives Crime emerging Higher income inequality leads to more crime by increasing criminal payoffs and reducing opportunity costs.	Rational-choice models predicted higher income inequality leads to more crime because it increases the pay-off and/or reduces the opportunity costs of crime. This seemed credible from economic logi... Previous meta-analyses propped up the assumption with larger coefficients like 0.436 from Kim et al. (2020), generating sub-beliefs in strong links for property crime and high-inequality countries.... Prior studies and meta-analyses reported moderate correlations between inequality and crime, such as Pratt and Cullen (2005) finding a coefficient of 0.212, which seemed credible from aggregating m... Rational choice models like Becker's predicted inequality mainly incentivizes property crime, a sub-belief propping up the assumption, but heterogeneity analysis showed small effects on violent cri... ...and 17 more	propagation The assumption spread through empirical literature in criminology journals, with cross-sectional studies and data from USA, China, Mexico showing bigger effects, reinforced by citation counts. propagation Earlier meta-analyses propagated inflated estimates by not systematically correcting for publication bias, as most studies overlooked it while Kim et al. (2020) incorrectly found none. propagation Academic journals propagated the assumption through repeated citations of positive findings, amplified by meta-analyses overlooking publication bias. policy Criminology and sociology studies used the assumption to advocate controls like poverty and unemployment measures in crime models, influencing resource allocation toward inequality reduction over o... policy Redistribution policies were justified partly on crime reduction grounds, assuming inequality shrinkage cuts criminal incentives. policy Research practices adopted race-specific arrest rates as proxies for offending, based on Hindelang's work, leading to flawed analyses in criminal justice studies. ...and 11 more
Race is Entirely a Social Construct emerging Race is a social construct with no genetic basis, and there are no socially important differences between human ancestry groups.	Inconsistent definitions of race like 'black' across countries (any African ancestry in US, none with European in Brazil) propped up the belief race lacks genetic basis, generating sub-belief that ... There are no absolute genetic differences aligning with racial lines, only frequency differences, as shown by comparing genomes of Watson, Venter (European ancestry), and Kim (Korean), making race ... Race is a poorly defined marker of genetic diversity despite being used as a proxy for ancestry in research, propping up the view it lacks biological utility. Without objective quantification, assessments relied on morphological traits like nose, lip, eye shapes, skin color, and hair, which emphasized between-group differences because humans perceive clu... ...and 23 more	propagation Genetic findings from 1972 were incorporated into the argument, establishing consensus that race is a social construct without biological meaning, morphing into orthodoxy against research on popula... propagation Mainstream scientific consensus promoted race as a social construct without biological meaning, as stated in Scientific American. propagation Scientific journals continued using racial categories in genetics studies despite consensus they were crude. policy Genetics research routinely used racial categories like white and black as biological variables in studies. policy Medical predictions and diagnoses relied on race, such as viewing cystic fibrosis as a white disease. policy Racial classification codified nodalities in morphological traits into formal categories used in anthropology and genetics, shaping research and social practices around races as genetically discrete. ...and 18 more
Media Consolidation Improves Broadcasting emerging Consolidating local TV broadcasters enhances efficiency, content quality, and serves consumer interests.	Past mergers by Nexstar increased retransmission fees dramatically, contradicting claims of consumer benefits; fees rose from $1.04 to $23.21 per subscriber as consolidation grew. Consolidation was justified by efficiencies, but it led to centralized news production and layoffs, harming local content diversity. Lawmakers relied on the belief that promoting competition and reducing regulation would secure lower prices, higher quality services, and rapid deployment of new technologies, propping up expectati... Media ownership policy promotes economic competition to increase consumer welfare and First Amendment values to preserve political freedom; there was little opposition to this idea, making the rule... ...and 6 more	propagation Nexstar promoted its agenda through local news mandates, ordering 160 stations to air stories favoring cable deregulation. propagation The assumption spread through federal legislation, amending the Communications Act of 1934 to embed deregulation and competition principles across telecom, broadcast, and cable services. propagation FCC rules spread through administrative enforcement and statutory mandate, with the 1996 Act requiring periodic review but retaining many based on the same assumptions. policy FCC ownership rule relaxations since the 1990s allowed companies to exceed prior limits, culminating in plans to raise the national reach cap beyond 39%. policy Federal approvals cleared multiple Nexstar mergers despite antitrust concerns, enabling further consolidation. policy The Act created Part II of Title II focused on development of competitive markets, including interconnection obligations, removal of entry barriers, and universal service provisions. ...and 12 more
Prohibition Heals Social Ills emerging Prohibiting alcohol will cure societal problems like alcoholism, domestic violence, and political corruption.	Prohibition supporters believed alcohol caused societal ills like alcoholism, domestic violence, and saloon-based political corruption, making bans seem a direct cure; this overlooked black markets... Prohibition was presented as a battle for public morals and health, propping up the idea it would reduce consumption permanently; long-term data showed no lasting drop. The convention's plan of work rested on the belief that temperance societies, coffee rooms, literature, school instruction, pledges, and pulpit advocacy would effectively address alcohol-related so... The League promoted the belief that saloons were the root of social problems, propping up the assumption with propaganda materials that made temperance seem a straightforward moral fix; this genera... ...and 5 more	propagation The movement spread through Protestant denominations, progressives in major parties, and groups like the WCTU and Anti-Saloon League. propagation Delegates were elected one per congressional district following a Chautauqua call, with over 200 women attending from across the country, men restricted to the Amen corner. propagation The convention established two publications, Union Signal and Young Crusader, to spread temperance messaging. policy The Eighteenth Amendment banned production, importation, transportation, and sale of alcoholic beverages nationwide starting 1920. policy The Volstead Act provided enabling legislation, defining intoxicating liquors and penalties, over President Wilson's veto. policy Resolutions protested medicinal prescriptions of alcohol and called for public officials and their wives to refrain from its use. ...and 20 more
Saturated Fat Causes Heart Disease emerging Dietary fat — particularly saturated fat and cholesterol — is the primary dietary driver of cardiovascular disease.	The goals cited associations between high saturated fat, cholesterol intake, and heart disease risk, drawing from expert panels like the American Heart Association recommending cholesterol under 30... Reducing saturated fat to 10% of energy intake was propped up by beliefs it would prevent coronary heart disease, though later contradicted by trials showing no benefit. International disease patterns among affluent populations showed diets rich in saturated fat and cholesterol caused ischemic heart disease, diabetes, cancer, and obesity; this seemed credible from ... A growing body of 1970s research related overconsumption of fat, saturated fat, cholesterol, and sodium to risks for chronic health conditions like heart disease; this seemed credible as deficienci... ...and 11 more	propagation The government report was disseminated as official guidance, confusing the public and prompting industry and policy responses to align with low-fat recommendations. propagation The report was released at a Senate press conference with expert endorsements, modeled after the Surgeon General's smoking report to educate the public and prompt industry changes in food productio... propagation USDA propagated the assumption through successive food guides and bulletins, from 1979 Hassle-Free Guide highlighting moderation of fats/sweets to 1992 Pyramid recommending sparing use of fats/oils... policy The Dietary Goals provided the basis for national nutrition policy, influencing food selection, preparation guidelines, and governmental recommendations on calorie, fat, sugar, and salt intake. policy Recommendations targeted television food advertising, nutrition information, and low-income consumer education to enforce the dietary shifts. policy Goal 3 set national target to reduce saturated fat to 10% of energy intake and balance polyunsaturated/monounsaturated fats at 10% each to prevent heart disease; Goal 4 limited cholesterol to 300 m... ...and 18 more
Lobotomy Cures Psychiatric Disorders emerging Lobotomy is an effective neurosurgical treatment for psychiatric disorders by severing prefrontal cortex connections.	The belief that mental illness stemmed from organic brain pathology in association centers, which could be alleviated by creating lesions to disrupt abnormal excitations, seemed credible based on a... Chimpanzee experiments by Fulton and Jacobsen showed attenuated frustration behavior after frontal lobotomy, seeming credible as behavioral evidence for psychiatric treatment but overstated for hum... Brickner's presentation of Dandy’s patient with systematic postsurgery testing provided clinical evidence impressing Moniz, seeming credible due to novel neuropsychological assessment but limited t... Fulton and Jacobsen's chimp study showed lobectomized animals more cooperative without sensory/motor loss, seeming credible from animal models but misleading as basis for human psychosurgery yieldi... ...and 7 more	propagation The Nobel Prize to Moniz and dramatic increase in procedures promoted lobotomy through medical prestige and institutional adoption. propagation The 1935 International Neurological Congress in London hosted a frontal lobe session with luminaries like Moniz, Fulton, Jacobsen, Brickner, and Penfield, spreading the idea of psychosurgery. propagation Moniz's 1936 monograph hastened publication of leucotomy results, promoting adoption despite rudimentary follow-up. policy Lobotomy became standard institutional practice in U.S. and U.K. mental hospitals, with nearly 20,000 U.S. procedures by 1951, prioritizing patient manageability over well-being. policy Leucotomy offered asylums an alternative to therapeutic nihilism, insulin shock, electroshock, straitjackets, ice baths, and restraints for managing psychiatric patients. policy Moniz's leucotomies adopted as psychosurgery practice, later Freeman's lobotomies in US, based on Congress-influenced frontal theory. ...and 9 more
Lysenko's Methods Boost Crop Yields emerging Lysenko's techniques like vernalization and species transformation dramatically increase crop yields by allowing inheritance of acquired characteristi	Vernalization exposes wheat seeds to humidity and low temperature to greatly increase crop yield; seemed credible amid famine but failed as it did not deliver yields and ignored genetics. Species transformation turns Triticum durum (tetraploid, 28 chromosomes) into Triticum vulgare (hexaploid, 42 chromosomes) in 2-4 years; misleading as chromosome mismatch makes it impossible withou... Genes are bourgeois invention, heredity shaped by environment via Lamarckism; propped up by Marxist ideology rejecting randomness, generated sub-belief that genetics served eugenics/racism. Lysenko's vernalization technique was claimed to increase yields by inducing heritable changes in plants, seeming credible due to promises of quick results amid famine but wrong as it denied geneti... ...and 10 more	propagation Soviet propaganda and state media overstated Lysenko's successes, published articles like 'Siberia is transformed into a land of orchards and gardens'; spread via party ideology. propagation Communist Party ideology tied science to class interests (partiinost), judging findings by political utility; portrayed genetics as fascist/bourgeois. propagation Lysenko's ideas spread through state-controlled media and Communist Party endorsements, with newspapers promoting vernalization as a miracle technique. policy 1948 VASKhNIL session declared Lysenkoism official biology, requiring scientists to denounce genetics; led to textbook withdrawals and department purges. policy Order No. 1208 (Aug 23, 1948) reviewed biology faculties to remove opponents of Michurinist biology and appoint Lysenkoists; destroyed Drosophila stocks. policy Soviet government ordered immediate implementation of vernalization in 1931, allocating resources and fields based on Lysenko's claims despite expert warnings. ...and 20 more
Skull Shape Reveals Mental Faculties emerging The contours of the skull reveal the size of brain organs responsible for specific mental faculties and personality traits.	Brain composed of 27 organs for faculties like philoprogenitiveness, with skull conforming like glove to hand, allowing personality prediction; seemed credible from observation and animal compariso... Taylor's analysis of 1994 interracial crime data claimed blacks attack whites far more often due to inherent proclivity, seeming credible to believers but misleading because it ignored poverty's ro... The assumption rested on statistics showing higher black crime rates, cited as evidence of genetic or cultural causes, but this was wrong as studies using regression analysis showed race has little... Gall's original system posited that the mind consists of distinct organs whose size is indicated by skull contours, seeming credible due to anatomical observations but misleading because it lacked ... ...and 9 more	propagation Spread via lecture tours, cheap pamphlets, scientific lectures as entertainment, bestselling books, and phrenological charts sold for a cent. propagation The booklet spread through white supremacist networks and neo-Confederate groups, who brandished it as proof of their views on black criminality. propagation It propagated via the internet on American Renaissance's website and in print distributions, reaching radical right audiences. policy Influenced 19th-century psychiatry and psychology practices, with phrenologists assessing character via skull exams. policy The assumption justified racial profiling in policing, with Taylor arguing officers should stop blacks more often based on supposed higher criminality. policy Phrenology influenced educational practices by proposing skull-based assessments for student abilities and character development. ...and 17 more
Sexual Assaults Increase in Europe Not From Immigration emerging The increase in sexual assaults in Europe is not due to immigration.	Prior research identified common rape risk factors as low socioeconomic status, substance use disorders, psychiatric disorders, criminal behavior, and ethnicity, but did not test if they fully acco... A small prior Malmö study of 21 rape offenders noted they were often of foreign origin, hinting at immigrant link before nationwide confirmation. Acculturation research claimed separation strategies led to worse depression and anxiety than integration, with stress aggravated by poor socioeconomic conditions which integration could address. Existing literature suggested biases in law enforcement and judiciary systems explain immigrant overrepresentation in crime, seeming credible due to contested studies but wrong as they cannot accou... ...and 11 more	propagation Scholarly literature on Swedish rape offenders was scarce, focusing on victim-offender ties and age rather than broad predictors like immigrant status. propagation Social pressure limited research on immigrant-crime links, described as a sensitive topic requiring independent institutional studies to present facts. propagation Historical data and prior reports propagated awareness of immigrant overrepresentation in Swedish crime but inadequately explored causes, generating sub-beliefs in socioeconomic or bias explanations. policy Swedish Criminal Code Chapter 6 on sexual offenses was amended six times since 1965, broadening rape definitions and introducing consent-based and negligent rape, contributing to high reports. policy Integration policies prioritized socioeconomic interventions to equalize immigrant outcomes, based on assumptions that deprivation fully explained disparities. policy Preventive policies failed to target immigrant-specific risks due to unexamined causes, despite known overrepresentation, leading to calls for tailored measures based on acculturation and integration. ...and 15 more
Classical Standard Errors Accurately Measure Uncertainty emerging Classical standard errors provide reliable measures of uncertainty in regression coefficients because data noise is evenly distributed across observat	Classical standard errors assume homoskedasticity, or even noise across observations, treating all residuals as equally important despite uneven noise often occurring with larger dependent variable... Uneven noise (heteroskedasticity) arises because observations with larger dependent variables or outliers have more variability, invalidating equal-weight assumption in classical SEs. Robust SEs weight residuals by their impact on the beta (leverage), unlike classical equal weighting, better matching true sampling variability. The belief that a significant quadratic term implies a U-shape seemed credible because it fit data overall and was mainstream, but was wrong because quadratics prioritize global fit over local shap... ...and 6 more	propagation Standard regression training in first PhD-level methods courses emphasizes classical standard errors, leading students to overlook heteroskedasticity. propagation Economists adopted robust SEs routinely, but without full intuition, while psychologists lagged entirely. propagation Quadratic regressions spread as the mainstream method in psychology, with top journals accepting them and researchers citing benchmarks like a 2013 Psych Science paper. policy Default statistical practice in psychology journals and software like R's lm() outputs classical standard errors without robust adjustment as standard. policy Pre-registered analyses in psych studies specified quadratic regressions for U-shape tests, as in the critiqued paper's AsPredicted plan. policy Policy-proximal disciplines like economics and political science influenced public policy with left-leaning research, moderating briefly 1970-1990 before shifting left again post-1990. ...and 6 more
UK Citizens Not Being Jailed for Speech emerging Citizens of the UK are not being thrown in jail for expressing political opinions on the Internet.	The belief that the UK does not jail people for speech was propped up by the lack of a single, authoritative national statistic and by official framing that arrests were for public safety or incite... Police and media often distinguished between arrests, prosecutions, and custodial sentences, which obscured the real number of people jailed for online speech and allowed the assumption to persist. The belief that 'grossly offensive' or 'distressing' messages could be reliably distinguished from legitimate opinion was codified in law, but the terms were subjective and inconsistently applied. The assumption that 'hate incidents' could be recorded without a crime, based solely on perception, would not harm individuals' rights or reputations. ...and 14 more	propagation Media fact-checkers and local reporting often focused on police acting on public reports where posts caused fear or were linked to public disorder, reinforcing the narrative that enforcement was ab... propagation The laws’ language and enforcement practices spread through police guidance, government communications, and compliance requirements for tech companies under the Online Safety Act. propagation The assumption spread through official government press releases, ministerial statements, and public endorsements from regulators and advocacy groups, all framing the bill as a model of balancing s... policy UK police and courts enforced laws such as the Communications Act and public order statutes to arrest, prosecute, and jail individuals for online posts, especially during periods of unrest. policy The Malicious Communications Act, Communications Act, Public Order Act, and Online Safety Act imposed criminal penalties—including imprisonment—for a wide range of online speech. policy The Online Safety Bill itself is the policy outcome, introducing criminal liability for tech executives, fines up to 10% of global turnover, and mandatory content moderation and reporting requireme... ...and 15 more
Theory of Multiple Intelligences emerging Human potential is best understood through at least eight distinct, semi-autonomous cognitive abilities	The assumption that intelligence is a single, heritable, innate trait measurable by a single number underpinned early IQ testing and eugenic policies, but this was based on flawed and culturally bi... The assumption that the Binet–Simon test measured innate intelligence was based on its ability to correlate with academic performance and its apparent objectivity, but it failed to account for cult... The test's use of 'mental age' and rigid categories like 'idiot,' 'imbecile,' and 'moron' created the false impression of fixed, objective boundaries in intelligence, leading to lifelong labeling. The Stanford–Binet was founded on the belief that intelligence could be objectively measured and compared across individuals by age-based norms, and that these scores reflected innate intellectual ... ...and 10 more	propagation Positive publicity from army psychologists after World War I helped legitimize IQ testing and expanded its use in schools and industry. propagation The Binet–Simon test was rapidly adopted by public school systems in France and later in the United States, where it was used by teachers and psychologists to classify children and direct them into... propagation The Stanford–Binet test quickly gained support in the psychological community, which further spread it to the public and into institutional practice. policy IQ test results were used to justify forced sterilization laws in the United States, resulting in over 60,000 people being sterilized. policy The Binet–Simon test was used to justify removing children from mainstream classrooms and placing them in special education or asylums, shaping policies on segregation and institutionalization. policy Many institutions adjusted students' education and future career possibilities based on their Stanford–Binet IQ scores, including tracking, special education placement, and gifted program admissions. ...and 12 more