Immigration Compensates for Low Birth Rate

False Assumption: Immigration is needed to compensate for low birth rates and solve population decline.

Summaries Written by FARAgent (AI) on February 16, 2026 · Pending Verification

For years, the respectable view in politics, business, and much of demography was simple: rich countries with falling birth rates needed immigrants to keep their economies young, their labor forces growing, and their pension systems afloat. This was not crazy. Birth rates had dropped below replacement across Europe and in parts of North America, populations were aging, and pay as you go welfare states depend on workers supporting retirees. International bodies even gave the idea a name, "replacement migration," and politicians repeated the plain version, that countries "need immigrants" because there are "not enough babies" and "jobs Americans won't do" or too few workers to sustain growth.

The trouble came when researchers and governments tried to scale the idea from slogan to arithmetic. Studies from the 2000s onward found that immigration can slow population decline and modestly improve age structure, but only at very high and continuously rising levels, because immigrants age too and often converge toward the host country's fertility. In Europe, countries that took large inflows still saw pension burdens rise and median ages climb; Italy is a common example. In the United States and Canada, immigration clearly boosts headline population and output, but critics argue that this is not the same as solving dependency ratios, fiscal strain, housing shortages, or pressure on schools, transit, and health systems.

So the old claim survives, but in a narrower form. A substantial body of experts now rejects the stronger promise that immigration can by itself "solve" low fertility or reverse aging in any durable way. The more defensible version is that immigration can buy time, fill some labor gaps, and soften demographic decline at the margin, especially when migrants are younger and highly employed. The present debate is over how large those benefits really are, who captures them, and whether they outweigh the long run fiscal and social costs that the original sales pitch tended to wave aside.

Status: A significant portion of experts think this assumption was false

People Involved

Bill Clinton repeatedly told audiences that low birth rates left the United States needing immigrants to keep the economy growing. As former president and elder statesman of the Democratic Party he framed the matter in plain arithmetic during campaign stops for Kamala Harris in 2024, pointing to the lowest birth rate in more than a century and insisting vetted migrants were the only practical remedy. His words carried the weight of two terms in office and decades of conventional wisdom that had guided both parties. The message spread through news clips and partisan rallies, reinforcing the idea that immigration was not merely helpful but essential to national vitality. ^[6][7]
Giovanni Peri, professor of economics at the University of California, Davis and director of its Global Migration Center, built the academic case that immigration could stabilize aging Northern economies. In papers and IMF articles he argued that young arrivals would improve worker-to-retiree ratios, sustain pension systems, and deliver fiscal gains while absorbing Africans displaced by their own demographic transitions. Policymakers quoted his findings when defending open policies in Europe and North America. His work appeared in respected outlets and shaped the language used by finance ministries and central banks for more than a decade. ^[2][8]
Wolfgang Lutz and Sergei Scherbov at the Vienna Institute of Demography ran the numbers that many preferred to ignore. Their models showed that even large inflows could not prevent sharp rises in old-age dependency ratios once low fertility was locked in. They warned that immigration alone would leave age structures largely unchanged while requiring ever-higher volumes to maintain any given ratio. Their cautionary scenarios circulated in European demographic circles but rarely altered the public slogans that portrayed migrants as the simple fix for population decline. ^[5]
Renaud Camus, the French writer, gave the counter-narrative its lasting name in his 2011 book. He described mass immigration as a form of colonization that would replace the native population, a claim that moved from fringe essay to political rallying cry. Mainstream commentators dismissed him as alarmist, yet his phrase “Grand Remplacement” entered everyday political vocabulary across Europe. By the late 2010s politicians on the right were repeating it, and governments were passing laws aimed at groups that echoed his warnings. ^[33][45]

▶ Supporting Quotes (71)

“From the Canadian Century Initiative to Bill Clinton, “we need immigration to compensate for the low birth rate” is a common refrain.”— Immigration does not solve population decline

“Giovanni Peri is professor of economics and director of the Global Migration Center at the University of California, Davis.”— Can Immigration Solve the Demographic Dilemma? – IMF F&D

“Wolfgang Lutz is Director of the Vienna Institute of Demography of the Austrian Academy of Sciences, and Leader of the Population Project at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. Sergei Scherbov is Senior Scientist at the Vienna Institute of Demography of the Austrian Academy of Sciences.”— Can Immigration Compensate for Europe’s Low Fertility?

“"America is not having enough babies to keep our populations up, so we need immigrants that have been vetted to do work," Clinton said Sunday at a campaign event for Vice President Kamala Harris in Fort Valley, Georgia.”— Bill Clinton says low birth rate means US needs migrants

“"We got the lowest birth rate we've had in well over 100 years. We're not at replacement level, which means we got to have somebody come here if we want to keep growing the economy."”— Bill Clinton says low birth rate means US needs migrants

“Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York, who in 2022 argued that migrants are essential to filling the workforce gaps left by declining birth rates. Schumer said that "the only way we're going to have a great future in America is if we welcome and embrace immigrants."”— Bill Clinton says low birth rate means US needs migrants

“On the campaign trail Monday for Vice President Harris, former President Bill Clinton pointed to waning fertility rates as a pretext for more immigration. “We’ve got the lowest birth rate we have had in well over a hundred years,” Clinton told voters in Georgia.”— Bill Clinton Stumps for Harris, Calls for More Immigration Because of ‘Low Birth Rates’ | Institute for Family Studies

“If European countries let them in, young immigrants would increase the ratio of working to retired people and hence the sustainability of the pension systems.”— IMMIGRATION AND EUROPE’S DEMOGRAPHIC PROBLEMS: ANALYSIS AND POLICY CONSIDERATIONS

“In the coming decades, for geographical and historical proximity to Africa, immigration pressures are likely to be higher in Europe than in North America.”— IMMIGRATION AND EUROPE’S DEMOGRAPHIC PROBLEMS: ANALYSIS AND POLICY CONSIDERATIONS

“Authors Evgeniya Duzhak Addie New-Schmidt”— Immigration and Changes in Labor Force Demographics - San Francisco Fed

“Low Fertility in Developed Countries (Guest Lecture by Michael Teitelbaum)”— Low Fertility in Developed Countries (Guest Lecture by Michael Teitelbaum)

“As a whole, immigrants are a net benefit to the U.S. economy, but based largely on immigrants’ education levels, the fiscal cost is disproportionately paid by certain state and local areas.”— Why immigrants are America’s superpower | Brookings

“Together with co-author Tara Watson, Edelberg proposes a way to redirect some of the federal gains to these communities, piggy-backing on existing programs.”— Why immigrants are America’s superpower | Brookings

“Most economists I know are enthusiastic about immigration and it’s an important part of globalization... positive effects on the growth and the dynamism of the economy.”— Why immigrants are America’s superpower | Brookings

“My guest today is Wendy Edelberg, a senior fellow at Brookings and director of The Hamilton Project.”— Why immigrants are America’s superpower | Brookings

“Together with co-author Tara Watson, Edelberg proposes a way to redirect some of the federal gains”— Why immigrants are America’s superpower | Brookings

“My name is David Bier. I am the Associate Director of Immigration Studies at the Cato Institute, a nonpartisan public policy research organization in Washington, D.C. For nearly half a century, the Cato Institute has produced original immigration research showing that a freer, more orderly, and more lawful immigration system benefits Americans.”— Unlocking America's Potential: How Immigration Fuels Economic Growth and Our Competitive Advantage

“Authors: Jason Richwine, Ph.D. and Robert Rector”— The Fiscal Cost of Unlawful Immigrants and Amnesty to the U.S. Taxpayer

“Pia Orrenius is a vice president in the Research Department at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.”— Unprecedented U.S. immigration surge boosts job growth, output

“Madeline Zavodny is a professor of economics at the University of North Florida.”— Unprecedented U.S. immigration surge boosts job growth, output

“Pia Orrenius”— Immigration crackdown likely contributing to weak Texas job growth

“Emily Kerr”— Immigration crackdown likely contributing to weak Texas job growth

“By Byron Gangnes”— Immigration Economics - UHERO

“in their widely cited 1995 survey, Rachel Friedberg and Jennifer Hunt conclude that, “…a 10 percent increase in the fraction of immigrants in the population reduces native wages by at most 1 percent.””— Immigration Economics - UHERO

“Card, now a Nobel Laureate, had identified a unique “natural experiment” in the 1980 Mariel Boatlift, which brought about 125,000 mostly low-skilled Cuban refugees to Miami. Perhaps surprisingly, he found that the arrival of these immigrants had no effect on wages or unemployment rates of low-skilled Miami natives.”— Immigration Economics - UHERO

“In a rebuttal first presented in 2015, Borjas instead reported a large decline in the wages of high school dropouts, whose skills were most similar to those of the Marielitos. Borjas’s findings remain controversial, with a number of studies challenging his analysis.”— Immigration Economics - UHERO

“Co-author Professor David Coleman from the University of Oxford said: ’Much has been written about the ‘Death of the West’, with its threatened demise reportedly due to the low level of reproduction in Western countries. We show that this so-called decline has been exaggerated and trends in European fertility have been misunderstood.”— Claims about the decline of the West are ‘exaggerated’ | University of Oxford

“Co-author and Associate Professor Stuart Basten said: ‘Many commentators focus on China as the future global superpower – ever growing in economic and political stature. However, China risks falling into a low-fertility trap coupled with severe levels of population ageing.”— Claims about the decline of the West are ‘exaggerated’ | University of Oxford

“Christian communities too were taken by surprise. In many cases they have acted admirably in addressing hardship and suffering. Yet they still lack a concrete, non-abstract, non-partisan, sufficiently shared vision—one capable of inspiring evaluations and initiatives that take into account the full implications of the events and all aspects of the issue.”— Cardinal Giacomo Biffi: On Immigration

“This is the man from Davos. Indeed, he sets in with great strides what I call the "Direct Davocracy," the direct management of the human park by the banks, the stateless financiers, and the multinationals.”— A Conversation with French Writer Renaud Camus

“Support the National Council of European Resistance.”— A Conversation with French Writer Renaud Camus

“"We’re not only in a historical moment; we’re in a turning point in immigration," said Muzaffar Chishti, a senior fellow with the nonpartisan Migration Policy Institute.”— Can the US handle more immigration? History and the Census suggest the answer is yes.

“Quando avancei publicamente pela 1ª vez com a defesa da remigração, em Agosto de 2023, este conceito e as ideias e propostas a ele associadas eram totalmente desconhecidas do público geral e ignoradas ou ridicularizadas pelos setores mais politizados [...] fui ofendido, ameaçado, gozado”— Afonso Gonçalves - Remigração: Como Salvar Portugal

“André Ventura, que numa entrevista ao Observador, a 06 de Maio de 2025, defendeu que "eu acho que a remigração é uma solução nalgumas situações (...) em que a presença de pessoas de outras culturas mete em causa a nossa cultura"”— Afonso Gonçalves - Remigração: Como Salvar Portugal

“Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s reply at the last Question Time... when asked where he would put the “tens of thousands of aggressive males” coming across the Channel... Starmer said it’ll be ok, because there’s lots of social housing in the country. There’s almost none.”— Nigel Farage on the Rise - Chronicles

“Dutifully, state Assemblyman Gilbert Cedano introduced a bill providing for free prenatal care. Against some opposition, the bill made its way through both houses and was signed by Governor Gray Davis.”— The Reconquista of California - Chronicles

“the Mexican consul general in California, Jose Angel Pescador Osuna... proclaimed, “And even though I am saying this part serious, part joking, I think we are practicing La Reconquista in California.””— The Reconquista of California - Chronicles

“Our new book, The Next America, draws on this research to paint a data-rich portrait of the many ways our nation is changing and the challenges we face in the decades ahead.”— The Next America | Pew Research Center

“Rishi Sunak professed to feel, as he did this week, “a profound sense of urgency, because more will change in the next five years than in the last 30”, and declared “the next few years will be some of the most dangerous yet the most transformational our country has ever known”, he was entirely correct. Where he is mistaken is in his belief that “the United Kingdom is uniquely placed to benefit”.”— The Right's new parties won't save Britain

“The late minister Eberhard van der Laan said in the NOS-journaal news program of 4 September 2009 that the cabinet is not interested in putting people along the yardstick of euros. ... The then director of the CPB, Laura van Geest, stated in an interview: “I don't think you should talk about refugees and start calculating something.” And Klaas Dijkhoff stated in 2016 as State Secretary for Security and Justice in response to parliamentary questions3 that the government does not evaluate citizens, but policy.”— Borderless Welfare State 2

“This term can be traced to the French writer Renaud Camus.”— New Zealand Terrorist Manifesto Influenced by Far-Right Online Ecosystem, Hatewatch Finds

“Brenton Tarrant, the man accused of murdering 49 worshippers and injuring dozens of others in two New Zealand mosques Friday, posted a manifesto steeped in white supremacist propaganda and references to “white genocide,””— New Zealand Terrorist Manifesto Influenced by Far-Right Online Ecosystem, Hatewatch Finds

“Lauren Southern, a Canadian far-right conspiracist who commands a large audience on YouTube, posted a video called “The Great Replacement” in July 2017, which was viewed over half-a-million times on Facebook and shared more than 7,000 times.”— New Zealand Terrorist Manifesto Influenced by Far-Right Online Ecosystem, Hatewatch Finds

“David Duke posted a version of the same meme used on the cover of the alleged killer’s manifesto from his Twitter account @DrDavidDuke on February 9.”— New Zealand Terrorist Manifesto Influenced by Far-Right Online Ecosystem, Hatewatch Finds

“early in his career, Hoover was widely deemed to be anything but inept; he was judged a veritable wizard with the new arts of what was often called “publicity” or “propaganda.””— Spin Won’t Save Trump

“Walter Lippmann, the leading pundit of the day, wrote at the time, “Mr. Hoover’s ascent to the presidency was planned with great care and assisted throughout by a high-powered propaganda of the latest model.””— Spin Won’t Save Trump

“even Bernays threw up his hands when Hoover ignored the committee’s concrete recommendations... Bernays told the president that he wasn’t a magician.”— Spin Won’t Save Trump

“Lyndon B. Johnson... was toasted at the start of his presidency as telegenic and commanding. (Lippmann, again, led the way, saying, “The president has no reason now to worry about himself as a performer on TV,””— Spin Won’t Save Trump

“Jimmy Carter, believe it or not, was hailed as a “media genius” when he burst on the scene; a May 1977 cover of the New York Times Magazine showed a cartoon of Carter as a kind of all-powerful, behind-the-curtain wizard”— Spin Won’t Save Trump

“George W. Bush, too, was deemed a master of image-craft and a shoo-in for reelection when he emerged on an aircraft carrier deck in a flight suit, proclaiming “Mission Accomplished”... his fall came quickly: Had the election been held just a year later, he doubtless would have lost”— Spin Won’t Save Trump

“En moins de 24 heures, dans deux discours tenus successivement à Toulouse, Jean-Luc Mélenchon a dit tout de sa vérité. Jamais sans doute n’avait-il été aussi explicite dans ses propos et sa vision”— «Grand remplacement» : quand Mélenchon appelle à la conquête démographique de la France rurale

“*Arnaud Benedetti est professeur associé à la Sorbonne et auteur de « Aux portes du pouvoir – RN, l’inévitable victoire ? » (Michel Lafon).”— «Grand remplacement» : quand Mélenchon appelle à la conquête démographique de la France rurale

“the Generation Identity organization was banned in 2021 by French Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin... Now, Darmanin is targeting the new group”— France: 12 anti-immigration activists arrested for forming Argos group, 4 others sought by police in massive crackdown

“Bei einer Nettozuwanderung von etwa 400.000 pro Jahr können wir es knapp konstant halten.”— Jeder Dritte wird Migrationshintergrund haben

“In the article you mentioned earlier, I wrote that 500,000 immigrants were needed per year. That‘s roughly the amount we need to counter the demographic change.”— 'Germany needs 500,000 new immigrants every year'

“In May 2025, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer referred to the risk of our country becoming an 'island of strangers'.”— What is the problem?

“His courage comes too late. He now admits that he preferred to let a dangerous situation fester rather than risk telling the truth and therefore – it is he who says it – getting Marine Le Pen elected.”— The more time passes, the less reversible the situation will be, says prominent author Laurent Obertone on risk of civil war in France

“In this interview, he describes President Macron as being very much in favor of welcoming so-called “migrants,” i.e., illegal immigrants.”— The more time passes, the less reversible the situation will be, says prominent author Laurent Obertone on risk of civil war in France

“You are the author of several bestsellers in France, including the famous “La France Orange mécanique,” published in 2013, which documents insecurity in France based on local press publications that are rarely picked up at the national level.”— The more time passes, the less reversible the situation will be, says prominent author Laurent Obertone on risk of civil war in France

“General Pierre de Villiers, who was chief of staff of the French Armed Forces before he resigned from the post at the beginning of Emmanuel Macron’s presidency, is the latest of a series of top officials in France who have warned against a looming civil war due to mass immigration.”— Top officials warn of potential civil war in France linked to mass immigration

“In October 2018, when handing over his function as interior minister to Prime Minister Édouard Philippe after he had resigned because of deepening discrepancies with Emmanuel Macron, Gérard Collomb, a Socialist, talked of a ghettoization of migrant districts and warned : “Today we live side by side and, as I always say, I fear that tomorrow we will live face to face”.”— Top officials warn of potential civil war in France linked to mass immigration

“Macron’s predecessor in the Élysée, while presiding over the same kind of mass-immigration policies, also shared his fears of civil war while talking to journalists. ... Hollande also talked of the ongoing “communitarization, segmentation, ethnicization” of France, and said, “I think there are too many arrivals of immigrants who should not be here.” “How can we avoid a partition?” Hollande asked rhetorically. He then answered that “this is what is happening: a partition.””— Top officials warn of potential civil war in France linked to mass immigration

“Last year, President Emmanuel Macron himself alluded to the possibility of a civil war in France, which could be sparked by “confusions made between the issues of immigration, radicalization, communitarianism, and laicity.””— Top officials warn of potential civil war in France linked to mass immigration

“Ireland's native population could be in a minority by the middle of this century, the president of Dublin City University (DCU) will claim today.”— Irish could be minority ethnic group here by 2050 - professor

“Recent reports suggest God has another end in store for us.”— The Way Our World Ends

“CIA Director Michael Hayden said this week that Russia will have to import workers from the Caucasus, Central Asia and China, exacerbating already serious racial and religious tensions in a nation with thousands of nuclear weapons.”— The Way Our World Ends

“'At the moment ethnic minorities are about 40 per cent in London. The demographics show that white people in London will become a minority by 2010,' said Jasper. 'We could have a majority black Britain by the turn of the century.'”— The last days of a white world

“'It's my hope we can all see our state's diversity as a cause for celebration and not consternation,' said California's lieutenant governor, Cruz Bustamente, a Latino.”— The last days of a white world

“In 2023, then Prime Minister Fumio Kishida expanded the visa allowing foreign workers and their families to stay in Japan indefinitely, from just two industries to 11.”— Japan is opening up to immigration – but is it welcoming immigrants?

“The final report, which was over 1,000 pages, was based on testimony from roughly 180 eye-witnesses, including both civilians and police officers, as well as federal Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere, NRW Premier Hannelore Kraft, NRW Interior Minister Ralf Jäger and Cologne Mayor Henriette Reker.”— Police could have prevented Cologne NYE attacks

“Ina Schnarrenberg, the CDU representative on the investigatory commision, said the SPD-Greens coalition had attempted to remove all criticism of Jäger and the state Interior Ministry from the report. She said the two governing parties were guilty of 'deception, tricks, concealing information.'”— Police could have prevented Cologne NYE attacks

Organizations Involved

The United Nations Population Division published its Replacement Migration report in 2000, laying out hypothetical scenarios in which immigration would be used to hold old-age dependency ratios constant in Europe, Japan, and North America. The numbers required were enormous, yet the study was widely cited as evidence that governments should consider higher inflows. Media coverage oscillated between horror at the scale and insistence that the targets were merely illustrative. The report became a touchstone for both advocates and critics, shaping the terms of debate for the next two decades. ^[62]

The Congressional Budget Office incorporated high net international migration assumptions into its long-term economic and budget projections. In 2024 and 2025 reports it credited recent border encounters with adding millions to the labor force and nearly a trillion dollars to GDP over ten years. These figures were used to score immigration reform bills as deficit reducers and to argue that lower immigration would slow growth. The projections lent official weight to the idea that migration was the main engine keeping the American population from shrinking. ^[15][17]

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas published research claiming the 2023-2024 immigration surge had added 100,000 payroll jobs per month and 0.1 percentage points to annual GDP growth. The same institution later linked tighter enforcement to weaker Texas employment figures, citing business surveys in which one in five firms reported trouble hiring foreign-born workers. Its analysis reinforced the view that immigration was indispensable to labor supply in key sectors. ^[15][16]

The Brookings Institution through its Hamilton Project and Dollar & Sense podcast presented immigrants as an economic superpower that expanded the labor force, raised productivity, and delivered net fiscal gains once redistribution was arranged. Senior fellows Wendy Edelberg and Tara Watson argued that any local burdens could be fixed by federal transfers. Their framing appeared in congressional testimony and helped keep the assumption respectable among centrist policymakers. ^[11]

▶ Supporting Quotes (56)

“From the Canadian Century Initiative to Bill Clinton, “we need immigration to compensate for the low birth rate” is a common refrain.”— Immigration does not solve population decline

“The “solution” to population ageing embraced by most European and Anglosphere governments has been allowing immigration to keep pension costs manageable.”— Immigration does not solve population decline

“IMF F&D”— Can Immigration Solve the Demographic Dilemma? – IMF F&D

“Preventing these outcomes will require faster immigration by several multiples of its current rate.”— U.S. Demographic Projections: With and Without Immigration — Penn Wharton Budget Model

“On assuming power in 2015, the Liberal government set ambitious new targets for permanent immigration and more expansive policies on temporary migration to support economic growth, culminating in a two-year period from 2022 to 2023 in which Canada’s population grew by 5.2 percent.”— Understanding the Impact of Immigration on Demography: A Canadian Case Study

“Different scenarios commissioned from Statistics Canada explore the consequences of different recent immigration rates on the Canadian population and old-age dependency ratio,1 ranging from near-zero net permanent immigration (with annual permanent immigration at 0.3 percent of the national population) to highly ambitious (1.8 percent).”— Understanding the Impact of Immigration on Demography: A Canadian Case Study

“The question used as the title of this paper has gained wide public prominence following the publication of a UN study entitled “Replacement Migration: Is it a solution to declining and ageing populations?” (UN 2000).”— Can Immigration Compensate for Europe’s Low Fertility?

“Clinton's position reflects a broader sentiment among Democrats,”— Bill Clinton says low birth rate means US needs migrants

“More open and work-oriented immigration policies would allow European countries to attenuate the economic consequences of ageing and their population decline.”— IMMIGRATION AND EUROPE’S DEMOGRAPHIC PROBLEMS: ANALYSIS AND POLICY CONSIDERATIONS

“Continued low levels of immigration would lead to decreases in the total prime-age labor force.”— Immigration and Changes in Labor Force Demographics - San Francisco Fed

“Our pre-immigration change estimate suggests the prime-age labor force would grow 1.2% in the next few years before gradually slowing but remaining positive through 2043.”— Immigration and Changes in Labor Force Demographics - San Francisco Fed

“Countries must either raise fertility, accept immigrants, or adapt to a smaller, older population.”— Low Fertility in Developed Countries (Guest Lecture by Michael Teitelbaum)

“Wendy Edelberg, senior fellow and director of The Hamilton Project at Brookings, discusses the positive impact of immigration on the dynamism and fiscal sustainability of the U.S. economy.”— Why immigrants are America’s superpower | Brookings

“projections which look utterly reasonable to me by the Congressional Budget Office show that immigration will account for about three-quarters of the overall increase”— Why immigrants are America’s superpower | Brookings

“For nearly half a century, the Cato Institute has produced original immigration research showing that a freer, more orderly, and more lawful immigration system benefits Americans. Our view is simple: people are the ultimate resource.”— Unlocking America's Potential: How Immigration Fuels Economic Growth and Our Competitive Advantage

“The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) found in 2013 that comprehensive immigration reform would have “a net savings of about $175 billion over the 2014–2023 period” and “would decrease federal budget deficits by about $700 billion (or 0.2 percent of total output) over the 2024–2033 period.””— Unlocking America's Potential: How Immigration Fuels Economic Growth and Our Competitive Advantage

“Children in unlawful immigrant households receive heavily subsidized public education. Many unlawful immigrants have U.S.-born children; these children are currently eligible for the full range of government welfare and medical benefits. And, of course, when unlawful immigrants live in a community, they use roads, parks, sewers, police, and fire protection; these services must expand to cover the added population”— The Fiscal Cost of Unlawful Immigrants and Amnesty to the U.S. Taxpayer

“Estimates from the Hamilton Project suggest higher immigration boosted payroll job growth by 70,000 jobs per month in 2022 and by 100,000 jobs per month in 2023 and so far in 2024.”— Unprecedented U.S. immigration surge boosts job growth, output

“The labor force in 2033 will be larger by 5.2 million people, mostly because of higher net immigration, according to CBO estimates. As a result of the immigration surge, GDP will be higher by about $8.9 trillion”— Unprecedented U.S. immigration surge boosts job growth, output

“Immigration crackdown likely contributing to weak Texas job growth”— Immigration crackdown likely contributing to weak Texas job growth

“a recent study by the Congressional Budget Office that showed that the unauthorized immigrant surge of 2022 to mid-2024 would actually reduce federal budget deficits by $900 billion over the next ten years.”— Immigration Economics - UHERO

“INSIGHTS ARE PRELIMINARY MATERIALS CIRCULATED TO STIMULATE DISCUSSION AND CRITICAL COMMENT. THE VIEWS EXPRESSED ARE THOSE OF THE INDIVIDUAL AUTHORS. WHILE INSIGHTS BENEFIT FROM ACTIVE UHERO DISCUSSION, THEY HAVE NOT UNDERGONE FORMAL ACADEMIC PEER REVIEW.”— Immigration Economics - UHERO

“The paper, ‘The Death of the West: An alternative view’, by David Coleman and Stuart Basten from the University of Oxford can be found at www.popstudies.net”— Claims about the decline of the West are ‘exaggerated’ | University of Oxford

“We have had two lengthy ecclesial documents on the subject: the 1990 note of the Ecclesial Commission “Justice and Peace,” titled, People of Different Cultures: From Conflict to Solidarity; and the 1993 Pastoral Guidelines of the Episcopal Commission for Migration, titled, I Was a Stranger and You Welcomed Me. Both documents—very extensive and analytical—are above all (and rightly) aimed at building and spreading a “culture of welcome” in Christianity.”— Cardinal Giacomo Biffi: On Immigration

“One only has to observe the systematic and hasty neutralization of the middle political stratum: the return to their homes of all the French political figures who have been in the spotlight for thirty years; a government of hangers-on; a parliamentary majority of dazed puppets; [...] The state is being destroyed stone by stone for the benefit of major investors.”— A Conversation with French Writer Renaud Camus

“The National Council of European Resistance (French: Conseil national de la résistance européenne, officially abbreviated as CNRE) is a France-based political organization that was founded by Renaud Camus and Karim Ouchikh on 9 November 2017.”— A Conversation with French Writer Renaud Camus

“The Act was endorsed by the Ku Klux Klan.”— Can the US handle more immigration? History and the Census suggest the answer is yes.

“devido ao trabalho realizado pelo movimento nacionalista em geral e por alguns patriotas irredentos em particular, milhões de Portuguezes conhecem ou já ouviram falar no termo e nas ideias subjacentes.”— Afonso Gonçalves - Remigração: Como Salvar Portugal

“got steadily worse under the Tories, peaking in the year to June 2023 at a staggering 906,000. This so-called “Boris Wave” was the result partly of Johnson relaxing the rules for student and work visas”— Nigel Farage on the Rise - Chronicles

“Unbeknownst to the general public until recently, the school district has been following a practice of “social promotion” for more than 20 years. ... In Los Angeles, the cost is $10,500 per student, thanks in part to the large number of students who are taught in Spanish.”— The Reconquista of California - Chronicles

“But he was only admitting what has been a policy of the Mexican government for more than three decades: Surplus people are encouraged to immigrate, legally or illegally, to the United States, California in particular, and to maintain their Mexican identity and loyalty.”— The Reconquista of California - Chronicles

“The Pew Research Center tracks these transformations with public opinion surveys and demographic and economic analyses.”— The Next America | Pew Research Center

“Recent reports by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) and Immigration Policy Center (IPC) showing low rates of immigrant incarceration”— Immigration and Crime

“A Pew Hispanic Center study found that, of those sentenced for federal crimes in 2007, non-citizen Hispanics were 74 percent of immigration offenders, 25 percent of drug offenders”— Immigration and Crime

“Sanchez was instead released due to San Francisco’s “sanctuary city” policy.”— Straight Talk about Immigrant Crime

“the destruction of the Conservative Party, at whose door half the blame for our current state of crisis can be laid.”— The Right's new parties won't save Britain

“Since that report, the government has no longer calculated these tax costs and benefits of immigration in a general sense. ... In a way, this report can be seen as an update and extension of the CPB report Immigration and the Dutch Economy from 20031.”— Borderless Welfare State 2

“The killer used an image that circulated heavily on the say-anything forum 8chan for the cover of his manifesto”— New Zealand Terrorist Manifesto Influenced by Far-Right Online Ecosystem, Hatewatch Finds

“In the new edition of this popular Brookings Press offering, Frey draws from the lessons of the 2016 presidential election and new statistics to paint an illuminating picture of where America’s racial demography is headed—and what that means for the nation’s future.”— Diversity Explosion | Brookings

“Le chef de file de La France insoumise, Jean-Luc Mélenchon.”— «Grand remplacement» : quand Mélenchon appelle à la conquête démographique de la France rurale

“In a massive crackdown on patriotic activists... the French Interior Ministry indicated that four more individuals were being sought by police.”— France: 12 anti-immigration activists arrested for forming Argos group, 4 others sought by police in massive crackdown

“the Paris prosecutor’s office indicating the Argos members are being charged with pursuing the “offense of maintaining a dissolved organization.””— France: 12 anti-immigration activists arrested for forming Argos group, 4 others sought by police in massive crackdown

“Herbert Brücker ist seit 2005 Leiter des Forschungsbereichs "Migration, Integration und internationale Arbeitsmarktforschung" am Nürnberger Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung”— Jeder Dritte wird Migrationshintergrund haben

“The Local spoke with Christian Dürr, deputy chairman of the pro-business Free Democrats' (FDP) parliamentary group”— 'Germany needs 500,000 new immigrants every year'

“The Office for National Statistics projection in January 2025 was that the UK population would grow by 6.6 million by 2036, with over six million (90%) of the growth due to migration (migrants and the children of migrants).”— What is the problem?

“Violence against persons has continued to rise sharply, reaching a record of 900 assaults per day, including 120 assaults involving bladed weapons. This is according to the Interior Ministry’s figures.”— The more time passes, the less reversible the situation will be, says prominent author Laurent Obertone on risk of civil war in France

“Some estimates put the total number of migrants entering France every year at 400,000, which Nicholas Bay, a deputy in Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party, has said is unsustainable.”— Top officials warn of potential civil war in France linked to mass immigration

“Universities have a particular obligation to prepare the country for the increasingly multicultural nature of Irish society, he believes.”— Irish could be minority ethnic group here by 2050 - professor

“An Augusta, Ga., group, The National Policy Institute, has meshed the figures on fertility rates with the continents and races on Planet Earth — to visualize what the world will look like in 2060.”— The Way Our World Ends

“Where California goes, the rest of America is predicted to follow. At present 72 per cent of the US population is non-hispanic whites; the US Census Bureau predicts they will become a minority between 2055 and 2060.”— The last days of a white world

“The United Nations collects and produces a vast array of statistics on population, but produces none relating to race or ethnic origin... However, the UN's State of the World Population 1999 predicted that 98 per cent of the growth in the world's population by 2025 will occur in lesser developed regions, principally Africa and Asia.”— The last days of a white world

“In the past few years, 'radical' changes to visa and work-permit requirements have amounted to 'a door being flung open and a tatami welcome mat being rolled out to the world'.”— Japan is opening up to immigration – but is it welcoming immigrants?

“Some community leaders have raised objections over 'sanitary concerns'.”— Japan is opening up to immigration – but is it welcoming immigrants?

“conventional centre-right politicians—taking their cue from the economists—have repeated... conventional centre-right politicians screwing up, in polity after polity, the fundamentally cultural politics of immigration.”— Individualism and cooperation: III

“Police and the Cologne city administration could have largely prevented the attacks, had they been better prepared and acted quicker, the investigatory commission concluded.”— Police could have prevented Cologne NYE attacks

The Foundation

The assumption that immigration is needed to compensate for low birth rates rested on a straightforward observation: fertility in developed countries had fallen below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman and showed no sign of returning. Demographers could point to consistent data after the 1970s, negative natural increase in several European nations, and projections that native populations would shrink without inflows. A thoughtful observer in the early 2000s might reasonably conclude that migration offered the only quick way to maintain workforce size and pension contributor numbers. The intuition was reinforced by the visible aging of rich societies and the youthful profiles of migrants from higher-fertility regions. ^[3][10]

Yet the same data contained complications that were often downplayed. Immigrants themselves age, their fertility converges toward native levels, and their fiscal impact varies sharply by education and skill. Studies such as those by Giovanni Peri claimed that arrivals complemented native workers, raised innovation, and produced lifetime net contributions of $173,000 per recent immigrant. These findings seemed persuasive when paired with rising patent rates and labor-force participation among the foreign-born. Later reviews, however, highlighted that low-skilled cohorts generated persistent deficits and that aggregate gains masked distributional costs borne by particular communities and budgets. ^[2][14]

Projections from the Penn Wharton Budget Model and the Congressional Budget Office showed that without immigration the U.S. working-age population would decline after the early 2040s and that foreign-born residents already accounted for three-quarters of expected population growth. The numbers looked compelling on charts. Mounting evidence from European fiscal accounts and Canadian projections challenged the idea that inflows could stabilize age structures without ever-larger volumes, suggesting the remedy was partial at best and carried its own long-term pressures. ^[3][4][9]

▶ Supporting Quotes (80)

“immigration can definitely reverse population decline, it can’t do much for population aging.”— Immigration does not solve population decline

“The population number going down is bad; immigration brings the population number up; therefore we need more immigration. (Composition isn’t mentioned.)”— Immigration does not solve population decline

“Research shows that immigration does not reduce the capital intensity of the economy, but rather it allows firms to expand and investments to adjust, and it also promotes innovation and growth—especially when highly skilled immigrants are admitted. There is also little evidence that immigration displaces jobs or depresses wages in the receiving countries (see, for example, Lewis and Peri 2015 and Peri 2016).”— Can Immigration Solve the Demographic Dilemma? – IMF F&D

“In the United States, for instance, where immigrants’ employment rates are high and a large share are highly educated, the average lifetime fiscal contribution of an immigrant who arrived in the last 10 years has been calculated at $173,000.”— Can Immigration Solve the Demographic Dilemma? – IMF F&D

“In the United States, the total fertility rate of natives was 1.76 children per woman in 2017, whereas that of immigrants was 2.18.”— Can Immigration Solve the Demographic Dilemma? – IMF F&D

“In Figure 1, Panel A shows that the TFR in the next few decades is projected to average about 1.7 per woman, well below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman.”— U.S. Demographic Projections: With and Without Immigration — Penn Wharton Budget Model

“Persistently low fertility will make the balance of births minus deaths negative. A positive, albeit declining, population growth rate will be sustained, however, because of sustained positive net immigration.”— U.S. Demographic Projections: With and Without Immigration — Penn Wharton Budget Model

“The shift of baby-boomer workers into retirement portends a decline in the worker-to-retiree ratio from 3.0 today to 2.0 by 2075.”— U.S. Demographic Projections: With and Without Immigration — Penn Wharton Budget Model

“for now, Canada’s labor force continues to grow—in fact, the labor force grew by 2.8 million persons or nearly 15 percent over the last decade—but this has been driven entirely by the admission of temporary and permanent immigrants, illustrating the critical role that migration policy has assumed in the Canadian economy.”— Understanding the Impact of Immigration on Demography: A Canadian Case Study

“This UN study chose an approach that works completely top down or more precisely “back from the future.” A certain demographic target (such as keeping the support ratio constant) is set and then one calculates what immigration would be needed to achieve this goal, assuming invariant paths of future fertility and mortality, i.e., viewing migration as the only policy variable.”— Can Immigration Compensate for Europe’s Low Fertility?

“The underlying reasoning is that the volume of immigration could be more easily determined by government policies than the level of Europe’s birth rate.”— Can Immigration Compensate for Europe’s Low Fertility?

“According to provisional data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Center for Health Statistics, the fertility rate dropped another 3 percent last year, reaching 54.5 births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44. Just under 3.6 million babies were born in the U.S. in 2023, 76,000 fewer than the year before. ... The total fertility rate in 2023 remained below replacement—the level at which a given generation can exactly replace itself (2,100 births per 1,000 women). The rate has generally been below replacement since 1971 and consistently below replacement since 2007.”— Bill Clinton says low birth rate means US needs migrants

““We are not at replacement level, which means we have got to have somebody come here if we want to grow the economy.””— Bill Clinton Stumps for Harris, Calls for More Immigration Because of ‘Low Birth Rates’ | Institute for Family Studies

“As of 2010 the percentage of population 65 and older was over 20 percent in Germany and Italy and only 12 percent in the US.”— IMMIGRATION AND EUROPE’S DEMOGRAPHIC PROBLEMS: ANALYSIS AND POLICY CONSIDERATIONS

“In contrast many African countries have not experienced the demographic decline yet (Table 2) and hence their emigration rates have not peaked.”— IMMIGRATION AND EUROPE’S DEMOGRAPHIC PROBLEMS: ANALYSIS AND POLICY CONSIDERATIONS

“The estimated native-born population of 16-year-olds peaked in 2023 and is expected to decline through at least 2040 based on current and past birth data. Specifically, we project that the annual inflow of native-born 16-year-olds into the working-age population will decline from 4.2 million to 3.6 million by 2040.”— Immigration and Changes in Labor Force Demographics - San Francisco Fed

“We show that, without immigration, prime-age labor force growth will likely continue to slow and turn negative around 2042.”— Immigration and Changes in Labor Force Demographics - San Francisco Fed

“Fertility levels are below replacement in many economically advanced countries. As a result, these countries are aging; medical and retirement costs are increasing.”— Low Fertility in Developed Countries (Guest Lecture by Michael Teitelbaum)

“foreign born people accounted for half of the growth in the U.S. labor force between 2010 and 2018. Half... immigration will account for about three-quarters of the overall increase in the size of the population.”— Why immigrants are America’s superpower | Brookings

“immigrants receive patents at twice the rate of the native-born population... almost 20% of all of those in the U.S. with a graduate degree are foreign born.”— Why immigrants are America’s superpower | Brookings

“generally speaking, immigrants are far more likely to work than people who are born in the U.S. They have higher labor force participation rates.”— Why immigrants are America’s superpower | Brookings

“foreign born people accounted for half of the growth in the U.S. labor force between 2010 and 2018. Half. ... immigration will account for about three-quarters of the overall increase in the size of the population.”— Why immigrants are America’s superpower | Brookings

“immigrants receive patents at twice the rate of the native-born population. We know that, for example, immigrants receive patents at twice the rate of the native-born population.”— Why immigrants are America’s superpower | Brookings

“Without immigration, the U.S. population will start to decline by the 2030s. Already in 2022, about half of all the counties in the United States saw declining populations. Moreover, in 2022, international migration accounted for 80 percent of the meager 0.4 percent population growth.”— Unlocking America's Potential: How Immigration Fuels Economic Growth and Our Competitive Advantage

“According to a Cato Institute update of a National Academy of Sciences report, immigrants generate, in inflation-adjusted terms, nearly $1 trillion in state, local, and federal taxes, which is almost $300 billion more than they receive in government benefits, including cash assistance, entitlements, and public education.”— Unlocking America's Potential: How Immigration Fuels Economic Growth and Our Competitive Advantage

“Immigrants increase the supply of labor, which increases the supply of goods and services that people need; their consumption, entrepreneurship, and investment also increases the demand for labor, creating better-paying jobs for Americans elsewhere in the economy. Fundamentally, immigrants aren’t competitors. They are collaborators.”— Unlocking America's Potential: How Immigration Fuels Economic Growth and Our Competitive Advantage

“Currently, U.S. nonfarm employers have about 9 million open jobs, and over the last two and a half years, this number has averaged about 10 million.”— Unlocking America's Potential: How Immigration Fuels Economic Growth and Our Competitive Advantage

“Some argue that the deficit figures for poorly educated households in the general population are not relevant for immigrants. Many believe, for example, that lawful immigrants use little welfare. In reality, lawful immigrant households receive significantly more welfare, on average, than U.S.-born households.”— The Fiscal Cost of Unlawful Immigrants and Amnesty to the U.S. Taxpayer

“Many conservatives believe that if an individual has a job and works hard, he will inevitably be a net tax contributor (paying more in taxes than he takes in benefits). In our society, this has not been true for a very long time.”— The Fiscal Cost of Unlawful Immigrants and Amnesty to the U.S. Taxpayer

“Many believe that unlawful immigrants work more than other groups. This is also not true. The employment rate for non-elderly adult unlawful immigrants is about the same as it is for the general population.”— The Fiscal Cost of Unlawful Immigrants and Amnesty to the U.S. Taxpayer

“Many policymakers also believe that because unlawful immigrants are comparatively young, they will help relieve the fiscal strains of an aging society. Regrettably, this is not true. At every stage of the life cycle, unlawful immigrants, on average, generate fiscal deficits (benefits exceed taxes). Unlawful immigrants, on average, are always tax consumers; they never once generate a “fiscal surplus””— The Fiscal Cost of Unlawful Immigrants and Amnesty to the U.S. Taxpayer

“Many policymakers believe that after amnesty, unlawful immigrants will help make Social Security solvent. It is true that unlawful immigrants currently pay FICA taxes and would pay more after amnesty, but with average earnings of $24,800 per year, the typical unlawful immigrant will pay only about $3,700 per year in FICA taxes. After retirement, that individual is likely to draw more than $3.00 in Social Security and Medicare (adjusted for inflation) for every dollar in FICA taxes he has paid.”— The Fiscal Cost of Unlawful Immigrants and Amnesty to the U.S. Taxpayer

“By incorporating previously unavailable data on migration along the southwest border into the government’s economic and fiscal outlook... Census 2023 estimates (July to July) put net immigration at 1.1 million, far from CBO’s calendar-year 2023 estimate of 3.3 million”— Unprecedented U.S. immigration surge boosts job growth, output

“In 2023 alone, Customs and Border Protection (CBP) personnel encountered 2.54 million migrants at the southwest border... Border Patrol encounters do not include got-aways, or unauthorized immigrants, who escape the notice of Border Patrol”— Unprecedented U.S. immigration surge boosts job growth, output

“Findings from the Dallas Fed Texas Business Outlook Surveys (TBOS) suggest immigration policy changes will negatively affect the ability to hire and retain foreign-born workers at one in five Texas businesses this year.”— Immigration crackdown likely contributing to weak Texas job growth

“When the immigration surge was at its peak, economists estimated that U.S. break-even job growth was around 250,000 jobs per month... Current estimates of break-even employment growth are approaching 30,000 jobs.”— Immigration crackdown likely contributing to weak Texas job growth

“a 2022 study-of-studies (a meta-analysis) by C. Nedoncelle and others analyzed 64 papers published between 1972 and 2019. They found, “…an average negative, close-to-zero wage eﬀect.””— Immigration Economics - UHERO

“Card, now a Nobel Laureate, had identified a unique “natural experiment” in the 1980 Mariel Boatlift... he found that the arrival of these immigrants had no effect on wages or unemployment rates of low-skilled Miami natives.”— Immigration Economics - UHERO

“The aging of the US population means that immigration will be essential to sustaining the US labor force and standard of living in coming decades.”— Immigration Economics - UHERO

“Much has been written about the Death of the West: how declining birth rates, falling populations, and population ageing will reduce Europe and end the supremacy of the US while Asian superpowers, such as China and India, see their economies grow to match their huge populations.”— Claims about the decline of the West are ‘exaggerated’ | University of Oxford

“The general exaltation of solidarity and of the primacy of evangelical charity—which in themselves and in principle are legitimate and even necessary—show themselves to be more generous than useful when they fail to reckon with the complexity of the problem and the harshness of reality.”— Cardinal Giacomo Biffi: On Immigration

“Italy requires labor it no longer sufficiently finds among its own population. In this regard, we ought finally to recognize the folly of the line pursued over the last forty years—with obsessive anti-demographic cultural terrorism and the absence of corrective legislative and political measures that would remedy the egotistical and foolish low birth rate.”— Cardinal Giacomo Biffi: On Immigration

“Europe persists in expiating, or believing they are expiating, the horrors inflicted on Jews during the last war by importing onto its territory millions of people, who, as soon as they are here, have nothing more urgent than to inflict horrors on Jews.”— A Conversation with French Writer Renaud Camus

“Racism turned Europe into a field of ruins; anti-racism is making it a hate-filled slum. In both instances, the first victims are the Jews.”— A Conversation with French Writer Renaud Camus

“That historical peak – of just under 15% – was followed by a nativist backlash and sharp restrictions on immigration.”— Can the US handle more immigration? History and the Census suggest the answer is yes.

“Crescimento da população imigrante em Portugal (2017-2024) Este aumento foi proporcional à crise alemã de 2015, mas repetida anualmente. A catástrofe assume ainda maiores proporções se considerarmos os 700 mil naturalizados desde 1981 e 100-200 mil ilegais, totalizando 25% dos residentes que não são Portuguezes”— Afonso Gonçalves - Remigração: Como Salvar Portugal

“even if every single Londoner who is currently not working was trained up to do these jobs we would still have a massive number of vacancies, a record number of vacancies in the health sector, in social care sector and hospitality and tech and so forth”— Sadiq Khan: London needs more migrants

“He used the example of an aging workforce in the construction industry and the loss of EU-born workers as proof of the need for “sensible migration””— Sadiq Khan: London needs more migrants

“To say that Los Angeles schools are in a crisis is to understate the case. More than 50 percent of the students are doing failing work at their grade level. ... the school district has been following a practice of “social promotion” for more than 20 years.”— The Reconquista of California - Chronicles

“In 1960, the population of the United States was 85% white; by 2060, it will be only 43% white.”— The Next America | Pew Research Center

“We’ll have almost as many Americans over age 85 as under age 5. This is the result of longer life spans and lower birthrates.”— The Next America | Pew Research Center

“Recent reports by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) and Immigration Policy Center (IPC) showing low rates of immigrant incarceration highlight the data problems in many studies. The 2000 Census data they used are not reliable. An analysis of the data used in the PPIC and IPC studies by the National Research Council found that 53 percent of the time the Census Bureaus had to make an educated guess whether a prisoner was an immigrant.”— Immigration and Crime

“The Survey of Inmates in State and Federal Correctional Facilities shows that 8.1 percent of prisoners in state prisons are immigrants (legal and illegal). However, the survey excludes jails and relies on inmate self-identification, which is likely to understate the number of immigrants.”— Immigration and Crime

“advocates of mass immigration went much further, making wild claims that Mexican immigrants have a miniscule crime rate that somehow even suppresses native crime.”— Straight Talk about Immigrant Crime

“studies that examine what happens to crime rates in predominately black areas when immigrants move in are looking at communities with crime rates that reflect the marginalization and unique situation of black Americans. When it comes to crime, these communities are statistical outliers.”— Straight Talk about Immigrant Crime

“Census Bureau data collected on the institutional population... the Bureau's ability to record whether the institutionalized are immigrant or native broke down in the past and it is still not clear if this problem has been entirely corrected.”— Straight Talk about Immigrant Crime

“There are three underlying – often implicit – arguments that play a role in this: ‘one should not calculate the value of a human life’, ‘one should not blame the victim’ and ‘one should not play into the hands of the extreme right’. None of these three arguments makes sense upon closer consideration.”— Borderless Welfare State 2

““In 2100, despite the ongoing effect of sub-replacement fertility, the population figures show that the population does not decrease in line with the sub-replacement fertility levels, but actually maintains and, even in many White nations, rapidly increases,” the alleged killer wrote in his manifesto. “All through immigration. This is ethnic replacement. This is cultural replacement. This is racial replacement. This is WHITE GENOCIDE.””— New Zealand Terrorist Manifesto Influenced by Far-Right Online Ecosystem, Hatewatch Finds

“The alleged killer also espoused a belief in “accelerationism,” the idea that violence should be used to push Western countries into becoming failed states.”— New Zealand Terrorist Manifesto Influenced by Far-Right Online Ecosystem, Hatewatch Finds

“the idea that a president’s popularity is mainly a result of his communication skills, a function of how well he performs in the news media. We tend to imagine that incompetent politicians succeed because they hoodwink the public through their facility with the dark arts of public relations”— Spin Won’t Save Trump

“La créolisation, euphémisme en lieu et place du « grand remplacement », notion forgée et popularisée par Renaud Camus pour mieux en dénoncer les conséquences mais que le fondateur de LFI reprend cette fois-ci à son compte pour la retourner positivement”— «Grand remplacement» : quand Mélenchon appelle à la conquête démographique de la France rurale

“Darmanin justified his decision to ban Generation Identity because it can “be considered as presenting the character of a private militia.”... Argos, like Generation Identity, partook in street demonstrations, often deploying banners and smoke bombs. It also organized mixed martial arts retreats; however, the group itself promoted non-violence”— France: 12 anti-immigration activists arrested for forming Argos group, 4 others sought by police in massive crackdown

“In Deutschland haben wir seit den 1970er-Jahren einen sehr starken Rückgang der Geburtenraten. Zugleich steigt die Lebenserwartung. Ohne Zuwanderung würde das Erwerbspersonenpotenzial bis zum Jahr 2060 um 40 Prozent zurückgehen.”— Jeder Dritte wird Migrationshintergrund haben

“Wenn wir eine Nettozuwanderung zwischen 200.000 und 400.000 Personen pro Jahr haben, und damit ist zu rechnen, dürfte dieser Anteil bis zum Jahr 2030 auf 30 bis 40 Prozent steigen.”— Jeder Dritte wird Migrationshintergrund haben

“Our pension system is pay as you go – the current working generation is paying directly into the pension fund that distributes money to pensioners. ... Today, that subsidy is more than €100 billion”— 'Germany needs 500,000 new immigrants every year'

“Our elites, still colonial in mentality, are convinced that human beings from all over the world are interchangeable, that all you have to do is give anyone a good school, welfare benefits, and a city park to make them good French citizens, even better than our dusty natives.”— The more time passes, the less reversible the situation will be, says prominent author Laurent Obertone on risk of civil war in France

“France has become a country where “a teacher gets beheaded in front of a middle school and three persons are assassinated while praying in a church.” According to de Villiers, it will take “three, four, or five generations” to solve France’s problems with its migrant population”— Top officials warn of potential civil war in France linked to mass immigration

“Unpublished UK-based research, which he does not identify, has indicated that by 2050, Ireland's population will consist of a multicultural and multiethnic mix in which the indigenous Irish will form a minority.”— Irish could be minority ethnic group here by 2050 - professor

“"People are nervous about immigration. But immigration is almost always a good thing. People think immigrants come here and take jobs, but the opposite is true. They will come and create jobs."”— Irish could be minority ethnic group here by 2050 - professor

“How can this be when only Iceland and Albania have fertility rates — 2.1 children per woman — that can stop population declines, and all the rest have birthrates that would put bears, birds and wolves on the endangered species list? Answer: Western Europe’s populations are being sustained by immigrants from the Maghreb and Middle East, Asia and Africa”— The Way Our World Ends

“Fleshing out the NPI picture is the U.N. population survey of mid-2007 that points to the 21st century disappearance of Western Man.”— The Way Our World Ends

“One demographer, who didn't want to be named for fear of being called racist, said: 'It's a matter of pure arithmetic that, if nothing else happens, non-Europeans will become a majority and whites a minority in the UK.'”— The last days of a white world

“over the past decade the country has been forced to start opening up to immigration, in need of foreign workers to plug the labour shortages caused by its plummeting birth rates and ageing population.”— Japan is opening up to immigration – but is it welcoming immigrants?

“These reforms have not sparked 'the populist backlash seen in European countries'... most Japanese people 'appear content' with the changes.”— Japan is opening up to immigration – but is it welcoming immigrants?

“The key mistake that economists make is they treat immigration as fundamentally an economic issue... Immigrants simply are not interchangeable “economic agents”. Their cultural distance from the receiving society—and the norms and rules its institutions are based on—matters.”— Individualism and cooperation: III

“part of the problem is Samuelsonian “social physics” Economics with humans as interchangeable “economic particles”.”— Individualism and cooperation: III

“Since immigrants face reduced economic opportunities in host countries, they may be more prone to engage in criminal activities than natives are.”— Immigration and Crime: New Empirical Evidence from European Victimization Data

“Finally, the age composition of immigrants is generally much younger than that of natives, and the frequency of criminal activity among younger individuals is generally higher than among those who are older.”— Immigration and Crime: New Empirical Evidence from European Victimization Data

“Maintaining potential support ratios would in all cases entail volumes of immigration entirely out of line with both past experience and reasonable expectations”— Replacement Migration: Executive Summary

How It Spread

The idea moved from academic journals into policy through a network of central banks, international organizations, and center-left politicians who repeated the same arithmetic in speeches and white papers. By the mid-2010s it had become conventional wisdom in Brussels, Ottawa, and Washington that low native birth rates left immigration as the only realistic lever for demographic stability. Economic letters from the San Francisco Fed and Dallas Fed warned that reduced inflows would produce persistent labor-force shrinkage. The message was amplified by think-tank reports, campaign rallies, and headlines that treated the link between fertility and migration as settled fact. ^[9][15]

Church bodies and mainstream media added moral weight. Italian bishops’ documents emphasized a culture of welcome while downplaying integration difficulties. Outlets from The Observer to Pew Research Center published demographic forecasts showing native populations becoming minorities in their own countries, framing the shift as inevitable and largely positive. Dissenters who questioned the fiscal or cultural sustainability were often labeled xenophobic, narrowing the range of acceptable debate for years. ^[32][39][57]

The assumption gained further reach through business surveys and budget models that projected large GDP gains from higher migration. When politicians such as Sadiq Khan or Herbert Brücker called for hundreds of thousands of annual arrivals to fill vacancies and sustain pensions, few challenged the underlying premise. Only after visible strains on housing, welfare systems, and social cohesion did the consensus begin to fray. ^[36][50][52]

▶ Supporting Quotes (58)

““we need immigration to compensate for the low birth rate” is a common refrain. Those pushing this line rarely list the problems of population decline that immigration supposedly solves.”— Immigration does not solve population decline

“Peri, G. 2016. “Immigrants, Productivity, and Labor Markets.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 30 (4): 3–30.”— Can Immigration Solve the Demographic Dilemma? – IMF F&D

“The Penn Wharton Budget Model’s microsimulation is based on calibrating and projecting more than 60 U.S. demographic variables such as age, gender, race... using micro-data on the United States population. The data are taken from various sources including the Census Bureau, The Centers for Disease Control...”— U.S. Demographic Projections: With and Without Immigration — Penn Wharton Budget Model

“Canada, alongside several other countries, has also elected to increase the rate of immigration to increase the size of the labor force immediately in the short term and to moderate the impact of population aging in the longer term.”— Understanding the Impact of Immigration on Demography: A Canadian Case Study

“It was interesting to see that in terms of public reactions to these calculations, one could find opposing conclusions ranging from “immigration can never solve the ageing problem” to “immigration is urgently needed to solve the ageing problem.””— Can Immigration Compensate for Europe’s Low Fertility?

“The problem with the public perception of such studies is that inevitably people take the (hypothetically) set target as a real target, moving immediately to the processes that will achieve the target without questioning the meaning of the target.”— Can Immigration Compensate for Europe’s Low Fertility?

“Former President Bill Clinton has suggesting that in order to grow the economy, the United States requires more migrants to counterbalance the nation's historically low birth rate.”— Bill Clinton says low birth rate means US needs migrants

“With the Harris-Walz logo right over his shoulder and while discussing immigration reform, he added,”— Bill Clinton Stumps for Harris, Calls for More Immigration Because of ‘Low Birth Rates’ | Institute for Family Studies

“As politicians may cater to these fears it will be even more important to bring solid economic consideration, rather than ideology, to the center of the debate.”— IMMIGRATION AND EUROPE’S DEMOGRAPHIC PROBLEMS: ANALYSIS AND POLICY CONSIDERATIONS

“This results in 0.8 percentage point lower growth of the prime-age labor force compared with January projections by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).”— Immigration and Changes in Labor Force Demographics - San Francisco Fed

“Concerns about low fertility have been present in many countries for at least 100 years.”— Low Fertility in Developed Countries (Guest Lecture by Michael Teitelbaum)

“Listen to Dollar & Sense on Apple, Spotify, Google, or wherever you like to get podcasts.”— Why immigrants are America’s superpower | Brookings

“Immigration Impact Index Immigrants & Immigration Immigration Impact Index”— Why immigrants are America’s superpower | Brookings

“Hi, I’m David Dollar, host of the Brookings trade podcast Dollar and Sense. As we celebrate America’s birthday, an important topic for discussion is immigration.”— Why immigrants are America’s superpower | Brookings

“Chairman Whitehouse, Ranking Member Grassley, and distinguished members of the Committee, thank you for the opportunity to testify.”— Unlocking America's Potential: How Immigration Fuels Economic Growth and Our Competitive Advantage

“The debate about the fiscal consequences of unlawful and low-skill immigration is hampered by a number of misconceptions. Few lawmakers really understand the current size of government and the scope of redistribution.”— The Fiscal Cost of Unlawful Immigrants and Amnesty to the U.S. Taxpayer

“The current U.S. immigration surge is unprecedented. The influx flew under the radar for some time... this year’s Congressional Budget Office (CBO) budget and economic outlook brought new attention”— Unprecedented U.S. immigration surge boosts job growth, output

“Findings from the Dallas Fed Texas Business Outlook Surveys (TBOS) suggest immigration policy changes will negatively affect the ability to hire and retain foreign-born workers at about 20 percent of Texas businesses this year.”— Immigration crackdown likely contributing to weak Texas job growth

“The academic research on the employment effects of immigration is vast, with a variety of approaches and varying results. But broad studies of the literature have consistently found no, or at most very small, negative short-term effects on prevailing wages.”— Immigration Economics - UHERO

“Much has been written about the Death of the West: how declining birth rates, falling populations, and population ageing will reduce Europe and end the supremacy of the US”— Claims about the decline of the West are ‘exaggerated’ | University of Oxford

“The studies, though, lack a bit of realism regarding the difficulties and problems involved; and, above all, they appear to insufficiently highlight the Church’s mission of evangelizing all peoples, therefore also those arriving to live among us.”— Cardinal Giacomo Biffi: On Immigration

“Mass-migrants are viewed as such only from the point of view of their native compatriots. Too often, for us, by their number, by their behavior, by their growing attachment to their cultures, manners and religion of origin, they have become, with a few exceptions, invaders, conquerors, and colonizers.”— A Conversation with French Writer Renaud Camus

“Immigrants didn’t bear responsibility for that social change but they became the scapegoats, said Aaron Reichlin-Melnick, policy director at the nonprofit American Immigration Council.”— Can the US handle more immigration? History and the Census suggest the answer is yes.

“Antes da reportagem "A Grande Invasão", desenvolvida pela Reconquista, de Janeiro a Março de 2024, o termo "remigração" era apenas mencionado na imprensa no contexto de análises técnicas ao identitarismo internacional ou em breves reportagens sobre políticas promovidas por longínquos partidos de direita Europeus.”— Afonso Gonçalves - Remigração: Como Salvar Portugal

“ERA IMPOSSÍVEL DE TRIUNFAR... ATÉ QUE TRIUNFOU! [...] HOJE, A REMIGRAÇÃO É O EIXO FUNDAMENTAL EM QUE SE SEPARAM OS CONTINGENTES GLOBALISTA E NACIONALISTA.”— Afonso Gonçalves - Remigração: Como Salvar Portugal

“Speaking to Channel 4 News, he said: “I’ve no hesitation in saying we need more migrants in London”.”— Sadiq Khan: London needs more migrants

“If an old-stock American had said any of these things, the media would have branded him a paranoid, xenophobic bigot.”— The Reconquista of California - Chronicles

“We had several such moments in early 2014, as three iconic American brands, Coke, Chevy and Cheerios, rolled out ads during the Super Bowl and Olympics that were aimed at what one voice-over called “the new us.””— The Next America | Pew Research Center

“Today’s Celebrities Reflect America’s Demographic Shifts.”— The Next America | Pew Research Center

“many advocates for immigrants and other immigration law enforcement skeptics insist that this attention is misplaced. They cite academic research claiming that immigrants actually are less prone to crime than natives.”— Immigration and Crime

“some mainstream media outlets correctly noted that, although good data are hard to come by, the overall immigrant crime rate does not appear to be especially high. But then advocates of mass immigration went much further... Only an uninformed rabble-rouser would worry about criminals crossing our borders”— Straight Talk about Immigrant Crime

“Millions of words were devoted to lauding this new transnational order, as politicians busied themselves with the dismantling of hard-won state capacity, whose sacrifice would bring about the earthly paradise. To stand against this was to stand against progress”— The Right's new parties won't save Britain

“Country of origin is personal data that, “in accordance with the principles of the rule of law, is not relevant to most policy areas,” says Dijkhoff.”— Borderless Welfare State 2

“The rhetoric used in the manifesto showcases a strong anti-capitalist, anti-global economy bent, which not only is common on Iron March”— New Zealand Terrorist Manifesto Influenced by Far-Right Online Ecosystem, Hatewatch Finds

“The type of racist rhetoric found in the manifesto is promoted heavily by Americans with large platforms like Rep. Steve King of Iowa and Tucker Carlson of Fox News.”— New Zealand Terrorist Manifesto Influenced by Far-Right Online Ecosystem, Hatewatch Finds

““Bill Frey is widely acknowledged as America’s leading demographer. In Diversity Explosion he extrapolates from current trends and paints a picture of how America will change demographically over the next 40 years. ” — Michael Barone”— Diversity Explosion | Brookings

“The New York Times Magazine hailed his “genius,” and National Geographic ran a spread about his heroics, adorned with dozens of photographs of Hoover tending to the men, women and children”— Spin Won’t Save Trump

“A pioneer in radio, Hoover broadcast his speeches over national networks... Hoover had his team produce an hourlong campaign film, “Master of Emergencies,””— Spin Won’t Save Trump

“Le Prophète a parlé et le clientélisme « racisé », comme l’on dit aujourd’hui, est son viatique.”— «Grand remplacement» : quand Mélenchon appelle à la conquête démographique de la France rurale

“ce dernier pointait dans sa saison 2, celle post-2017, dans les prolégomènes macroniens.”— «Grand remplacement» : quand Mélenchon appelle à la conquête démographique de la France rurale

“12 arrests have been made of former Generation Identity members for “reforming” an illegal group under the name Argos.”— France: 12 anti-immigration activists arrested for forming Argos group, 4 others sought by police in massive crackdown

“nach Ihrer Einschätzung braucht Deutschland jedes Jahr bis zu 400.000 Einwanderer, damit die Wirtschaft wettbewerbsfähig bleibt.”— Jeder Dritte wird Migrationshintergrund haben

“Wir wissen aus unserer Forschung, dass die soziale Integration zwischen deutscher und ausländischer Bevölkerung erstaunlich gut funktioniert.”— Jeder Dritte wird Migrationshintergrund haben

“who recently wrote a guest commentary for German daily Die Welt on the country's need for more newcomers.”— 'Germany needs 500,000 new immigrants every year'

“Politicians’ repeated promises to reduce and control immigration have been blatantly abandoned and betrayed, harming voter trust and democracy itself.”— What is the problem?

“There is permanent blackmail with the threat of the “far right,” leading in the end to realistic French people remaining silent so as not to be accused of “playing into the hands” of the National Rally.”— The more time passes, the less reversible the situation will be, says prominent author Laurent Obertone on risk of civil war in France

“French authorities now talk of the need for a “Republican Reconquista” in “districts lost by the Republic,” which are districts and cities inhabited by immigrants or their descendants.”— Top officials warn of potential civil war in France linked to mass immigration

“In a speech to be delivered at a conferring ceremony in DCU later today”— Irish could be minority ethnic group here by 2050 - professor

“Yet, last October, in another Pew poll of 45,000 people in 47 countries, a majority in 46 expressed fear of a loss of their traditional culture. Sixty-two percent of Americans told Pew we should do more to protect our way of life.”— The Way Our World Ends

“It was news and no news; the most significant milestone in one of the most profound changes to affect the US in the past century, and yet a non-event. Last week the US Census Bureau issued figures showing that non-hispanic whites made up 49.8 per cent of the population of California.”— The last days of a white world

“Japan is still 'often painted as hostile, if not downright xenophobic'.”— Japan is opening up to immigration – but is it welcoming immigrants?

“most mainstream economists and economic commentators—particularly in the US—have clearly decided that disagreeing with mainstream economists (especially on immigration) is a sign of irrationality (and probably moral inadequacy). This mixes American parochialism—ignoring European experience and debates—with academic arrogance.”— Individualism and cooperation: III

“a large part of Western elite cluelessness about immigration is from the adoption by so much of mainstream media of the Pravda-media-model—of being in the business of selling narratives of righteousness”— Individualism and cooperation: III

“This aspect of the immigration discussion is one of the most important in evaluating European natives’ attitudes toward immigrants.”— Immigration and Crime: New Empirical Evidence from European Victimization Data

“The debate has been particularly relevant in Europe, where immigration flows have steadily increased over the past few years, especially from developing areas of the world.”— Immigration and Crime: New Empirical Evidence from European Victimization Data

“Unlike earlier drafts, the final report does not address whether mistakes were made by the NRW state administration or Chancellor Angela Merkel's federal cabinet.”— Police could have prevented Cologne NYE attacks

“Whether police failed to adequately brief Jäger had been hotly debated in Germany. The state interior minister insisted he did not know about the magnitude of the attacks when media first reported them in early January.”— Police could have prevented Cologne NYE attacks

“A major limitation is that immigrants without college degrees and those of all education levels who come to the U.S. after their mid-fifties are net fiscal burdens”— Immigration and the Aging Society

Resulting Policies

European and Anglosphere governments raised permanent immigration targets and expanded temporary worker programs on the premise that inflows would keep pension systems solvent and worker-to-retiree ratios manageable. Canada’s Liberal government after 2015 set ambitious levels that reached 1.8 percent of population in high scenarios. The United States maintained policies that released large numbers of border encounters into the interior and granted work permits through humanitarian parole and temporary protected status. These measures were routinely justified by reference to low native birth rates and the need for labor-force growth. ^[4][15][16]

Congressional scoring of comprehensive immigration reform in 2013 treated additional workers as automatic deficit reducers. Proposals for amnesty phased in access to welfare, Social Security, and Medicare despite evidence that low-education households generated net costs. Public schools were required to educate all children regardless of status, adding short-term burdens to state budgets under the belief that overall fiscal effects would prove positive. Retirement ages were lifted across Western countries in parallel with higher migration to manage rising pension costs. ^[13][14][17]

France continued issuing hundreds of thousands of residence permits and visas annually while enforcement of deportations remained weak. Japan expanded visa categories and allowed families to stay indefinitely in more industries to address labor shortages in agriculture and nursing. Dutch policy avoided updated fiscal impact assessments after an early report showed deficits, preferring to treat origin as irrelevant personal data. Each of these choices rested on the shared premise that immigration could offset demographic decline without major trade-offs. ^[53][58][44]

▶ Supporting Quotes (46)

“From a policy standpoint, this means increasing the number of immigrants allowed, reducing other constraints on immigration, and planning for future inflows.”— Can Immigration Solve the Demographic Dilemma? – IMF F&D

“A faster annual immigration rate, equal to about 3.5 times the current rate, would be required to restore the ratio over the long term.”— U.S. Demographic Projections: With and Without Immigration — Penn Wharton Budget Model

“Since the 19th century, Canada has looked to immigration as a tool to help address its demographic challenges... to compensate for falling fertility.”— Understanding the Impact of Immigration on Demography: A Canadian Case Study

“In 2024, the minister of immigration, refugees, and citizenship announced significant reductions in permanent and temporary immigration to Canada over the next three years.”— Understanding the Impact of Immigration on Demography: A Canadian Case Study

“while discussing immigration reform, he added, “We are not at replacement level, which means we have got to have somebody come here if we want to grow the economy.””— Bill Clinton Stumps for Harris, Calls for More Immigration Because of ‘Low Birth Rates’ | Institute for Family Studies

“Accounting for immigration and adjusting our 2025 NIM projections by 285,000 deportations, we estimate that foreign-born workers will add 0.1 percentage point to prime-age labor force growth in 2025.”— Immigration and Changes in Labor Force Demographics - San Francisco Fed

“Amnesty for unlawful immigrants can pose large fiscal costs for U.S. taxpayers including public education, welfare benefits, and other benefits and services. If enacted, amnesty would be implemented in phases. During the first or interim phase (which is likely to last 13 years), unlawful immigrants would be given lawful status but would be denied access to means-tested welfare and Obamacare.”— The Fiscal Cost of Unlawful Immigrants and Amnesty to the U.S. Taxpayer

“Means-tested welfare benefits. There are over 80 of these programs which, at a cost of nearly $900 billion per year, provide cash, food, housing, medical, and other services to roughly 100 million low-income Americans. Public education. At a cost of $12,300 per pupil per year, these services are largely free or heavily subsidized for low-income parents.”— The Fiscal Cost of Unlawful Immigrants and Amnesty to the U.S. Taxpayer

“During the pandemic and until May 2023, some of these migrants... were immediately expelled under a provision known as Title 42... the U.S. government to expand programs such as humanitarian parole for those nations’ natives... 58 percent of encounters resulted in migrants released or paroled into the interior”— Unprecedented U.S. immigration surge boosts job growth, output

“Potential changes in U.S. immigration policy, such as the Biden administration’s recent executive action limiting the entry of some migrants”— Unprecedented U.S. immigration surge boosts job growth, output

“Between 2021 and 2024, at least 4 million immigrants were granted work permits as part of their humanitarian parole or asylum seeker status. Additionally, almost 1.3 million immigrants had temporary protected status, which includes work authorization, in early 2025.”— Immigration crackdown likely contributing to weak Texas job growth

“Because public schools are required to provide education to all children regardless of immigration status, there is a net cost to state and local government budgets.”— Immigration Economics - UHERO

“although the Western economies have difficulties with the rising costs of pension entitlement for its ageing populations, societies are adapting through increases in retirement age and other measures.”— Claims about the decline of the West are ‘exaggerated’ | University of Oxford

“The State, which still gives the impression of being disoriented, has been caught by surprise. It seems not yet to have regained the capacity to govern the situation rationally, bringing it back within the essential rules and proper framework of orderly civic coexistence. The measures which are being rolled out little by little are heterogeneous, and often contradictory; they reveal the absence of planning.”— Cardinal Giacomo Biffi: On Immigration

“the constant reduction in the advantages of a political career.... one would not be able to enumerate all, this is never-ending.”— A Conversation with French Writer Renaud Camus

“we ought finally to recognize the folly of the line pursued over the last forty years—with obsessive anti-demographic cultural terrorism and the absence of corrective legislative and political measures that would remedy the egotistical and foolish low birth rate”— Cardinal Giacomo Biffi: On Immigration

“the limits contained in the 1921 "Emergency Quota Act" were generalized – based on race and nationality – and were made "stricter and permanent" in the Immigration Act of 1924... These country-by-country limits were specifically designed to keep out 'undesirable' ethnic groups and maintain America’s character as nation of northern and western European stock.”— Can the US handle more immigration? History and the Census suggest the answer is yes.

“inverter os fluxos migratórios de substituição (a favor dos quais ninguém votou, já agora)”— Afonso Gonçalves - Remigração: Como Salvar Portugal

“The influx has forced the district to put nearly half of its elementary schools on a year-round schedule. ... Illegal aliens now get free prenatal care to go along with free births.”— The Reconquista of California - Chronicles

“Each of these shifts would by itself be the defining demographic story of its era. The fact that both are unfolding simultaneously has generated big generation gaps that will put stress on our politics, families, pocketbooks, entitlement programs and social cohesion.”— The Next America | Pew Research Center

“there are legitimate public safety reasons for local law enforcement to work with federal immigration authorities. The 287(g) program and related efforts have found high rates of illegal alien incarceration in some communities.”— Immigration and Crime

“Sanchez was instead released due to San Francisco’s “sanctuary city” policy... sanctuary cities, which as a matter of policy release illegal immigrants from jails even after Immigration and Customs Enforcement asks them to hold these individuals.”— Straight Talk about Immigrant Crime

“immigration is supposed to benefit our country. Therefore the goal of policy is to select immigrants that have much lower crime rates than natives... Given the strong correlation between crime and educational attainment, moving away from our current system that selects immigrants based primarily on whether they have a relative in the U.S.”— Straight Talk about Immigrant Crime

““the era when Europe bought its energy and fertilisers from Russia, had its goods manufactured in China, and delegated its security to the United States of America, is over””— The Right's new parties won't save Britain

“The Dutch government stated that they did not need this type of information. ... if immigration continues by the current numbers and composition, welfare states like the Dutch one become unsustainable.”— Borderless Welfare State 2

“The Nation magazine mocked Hoover’s policy of “Relief by Publicity,” editorializing that efforts pitched at the press were doomed so long as Hoover failed to design and implement a systematic plan”— Spin Won’t Save Trump

“il est quand même plus facile pour les leaders du bloc central d’appeler à faire barrage au Rassemblement national qu’à refuser de faire voter pour LFI et ses alliés.”— «Grand remplacement» : quand Mélenchon appelle à la conquête démographique de la France rurale

“the Generation Identity organization was banned in 2021... charged with pursuing the “offense of maintaining a dissolved organization.””— France: 12 anti-immigration activists arrested for forming Argos group, 4 others sought by police in massive crackdown

“six members of Argos involved in those protests, faced criminal prosecution and potential sentences of up to five years in prison”— France: 12 anti-immigration activists arrested for forming Argos group, 4 others sought by police in massive crackdown

“Die größten Gruppen, vermuten Sie, werde aus der Ukraine und dem Westbalkan kommen.”— Jeder Dritte wird Migrationshintergrund haben

“Because they‘re way too complicated! When I hear stories of people waiting for a year to have their embassy meetings, when they tell me about the mountain of paperwork”— 'Germany needs 500,000 new immigrants every year'

“The Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition government that formed in 2010 pledged to reduce net migration to the ‘tens of thousands’ (a promise that was repeated in 2015 and 2017).”— What is the problem?

“In 2021, there were 121,554 applications for asylum filed, as well as 279,925 residence permits and 733,070 visas issued. That is well over a dozen Ocean Vikings per day. And all this in a perfectly legal way, without counting the irregular immigrants who are very rarely deported.”— The more time passes, the less reversible the situation will be, says prominent author Laurent Obertone on risk of civil war in France

““I don’t understand how we can put all French people on lockdown for eight weeks, and we can’t expel an imam who preaches against France all day long,” he said at the time. ... “why we do not regulate our immigration flows because each time — and we can observe this very well with these most recent terrorist attacks — they are foreigners who come to our country.””— Top officials warn of potential civil war in France linked to mass immigration

“Inter-cultural studies and research should be prioritised, while care needs to be taken to ensure the "new Irish" gain equal access to higher education. Universities should also be "active contributors" to anti-racism policies”— Irish could be minority ethnic group here by 2050 - professor

“Although the immigration issue is a difficult one for the Government, recently introduced measures - such as increased restrictions on citizenship - are frequently counterproductive”— Irish could be minority ethnic group here by 2050 - professor

“Yet all three presidential candidates voted amnesty for the 12 million to 20 million illegal aliens.”— The Way Our World Ends

“Last year net immigration to Britain reached 185,000, an all-time record. The Immigration Minister, Barbara Roche, recently announced plans to attract migrants to fill specific skills shortages, such as in the computer industry.”— The last days of a white world

“Foreign workers are mostly permitted in industries like agriculture and nursing care... Japan has 'prioritised immigrants based on their usefulness', and focussed less on their integration.”— Japan is opening up to immigration – but is it welcoming immigrants?

“it is deeply, deeply stupid to see immigration as simply about gains-from-trade in societies conceived as arenas for free-floating transactions where gains-from-trade efficiency is the key issue.”— Individualism and cooperation: III

“These costs may reduce the likelihood that immigrants will become criminals.”— Immigration and Crime: New Empirical Evidence from European Victimization Data

Harm Caused

Fiscal burdens accumulated in countries that tracked lifetime contributions by origin. In Denmark and the Netherlands non-Western immigrants generated net deficits that strained welfare states already facing aging-related costs. Italy’s pension spending reached 16.3 percent of GDP while low-skilled arrivals added further pressure on budgets. American unlawful immigrant households produced an annual net fiscal burden estimated at $54.5 billion in 2010, with amnesty projections raising that figure substantially over lifetimes. ^[1][14][44]

Housing costs and public services came under strain in fast-growing cities. Rapid population increases from immigration pushed rents upward in the short term and crowded schools and hospitals. In Portugal critics described dirtier streets, longer health-service waits, and rising insecurity after the foreign-born share climbed sharply. Low-skilled inflows were also associated with wage pressure on earlier immigrants and native workers without college degrees. ^[4][35][11]

Social and political costs proved harder to quantify yet visible. Sanctuary policies in American cities led to high-profile crimes committed by repeat offenders released despite federal detainers. In Europe warnings from former interior ministers about ghettoization and potential partition gained traction after repeated terror incidents and suburban violence. Populist parties displaced center-right governments across the continent, capitalizing on public frustration with unmanaged inflows. ^[42][54][43]

▶ Supporting Quotes (50)

“immigrants and their children are a fiscal cost, not a benefit. This is clearest in Denmark, which keeps very precise records of public benefits used and taxes paid.”— Immigration does not solve population decline

“Italy, which by virtue of not having had much of a Baby Boom is one of the world’s oldest countries, currently leads the pack at 16.3% of GDP.”— Immigration does not solve population decline

“public opinion has shifted sharply on immigration, with Canadians citing concerns about the impact on housing costs and public services... aiding “fast” regions (such as large cities) as they deal with above-average rates of population growth and resulting pressures on housing and infrastructure, while simultaneously helping “slow” regions (such as rural areas) navigate depopulation and spiraling old-age dependency ratios.”— Understanding the Impact of Immigration on Demography: A Canadian Case Study

“In the context of discussing the “replacement migration” study, demographer David Coleman of Oxford once warned of the danger of what he called “demographism,” i.e., reducing the complex world to simple demographic numbers (personal communication).”— Can Immigration Compensate for Europe’s Low Fertility?

“Lower immigration also could help reduce high core services inflation (Bowman 2024).”— Immigration and Changes in Labor Force Demographics - San Francisco Fed

“The second scenario (gold line) would result in a small upward shift in the projected prime-age labor force growth by 0.11 percentage point, suggesting negative growth as of year 2044.”— Immigration and Changes in Labor Force Demographics - San Francisco Fed

“As a result, these countries are aging; medical and retirement costs are increasing.”— Low Fertility in Developed Countries (Guest Lecture by Michael Teitelbaum)

“when immigrants with lower education come into the United States, we see wages of similarly situated people in the U.S. who have less education... fall... the people who see the biggest hit to their wages when immigration goes up are recent immigrants.”— Why immigrants are America’s superpower | Brookings

“the fiscal cost is disproportionately paid by certain state and local areas.”— Why immigrants are America’s superpower | Brookings

“when immigrants with lower education come into the United States, we see wages of similarly situated people in the U.S. who have less education ... fall ... the people who see the biggest hit to their wages when immigration goes up are recent immigrants.”— Why immigrants are America’s superpower | Brookings

“There are approximately 3.7 million unlawful immigrant households in the U.S. These households impose a net fiscal burden of around $54.5 billion per year. Over a lifetime, the former unlawful immigrants together would receive $9.4 trillion in government benefits and services and pay $3.1 trillion in taxes. They would generate a lifetime fiscal deficit (total benefits minus total taxes) of $6.3 trillion.”— The Fiscal Cost of Unlawful Immigrants and Amnesty to the U.S. Taxpayer

“While certain sectors... should see costs and prices fall—for example, landscaping and child care—the population influx could put upward pressure on rents and house prices, particularly in the short run before new supply can be built.”— Unprecedented U.S. immigration surge boosts job growth, output

“This cost disappears in the long run as these students grow up and have their own children, but it is nevertheless a short-term budget burden.”— Immigration Economics - UHERO

“If infrastructure construction lags... there will be congestion costs from mass immigration which people will notice every working day. Competition for positional goods... will increase. ... This collapse of support for conventional centre-right politics has happened in polity after polity”— Individualism and cooperation: I

“the West and the English speaking world will have to accept some ‘painful adjustments’”— Claims about the decline of the West are ‘exaggerated’ | University of Oxford

“Everyone can see that arbitrary entry—when it becomes known to be easily attainable enough—gives rise to the uncontrolled spread of poverty and desperation (and sometimes to violent reactions of intolerance and outright rejection), while simultaneously fostering a criminal industry of exploitation that aspires to cross borders in a clandestine manner.”— Cardinal Giacomo Biffi: On Immigration

“The assassination of Holocaust survivor Mireille Knoll is a testament to the threat weighing upon every Jew in France.”— A Conversation with French Writer Renaud Camus

“Otherwise, such situations will inevitably provoke pernicious crises of rejection, blind attitudes of xenophobia, and the insurgence of deplorable racial intolerances.”— Cardinal Giacomo Biffi: On Immigration

“The law restricted the legal entry of Italians like Pugliese; along with Jews, southern and eastern Europeans, Chinese and others from Asia.”— Can the US handle more immigration? History and the Census suggest the answer is yes.

“à medida que a nossa população é substituída por imigrantes de 3º mundo, o nosso país torna-se mais como os países de onde provêm essas pessoas: sujo, inseguro, corrupto, com menos saúde, serviços públicos ou habitação.”— Afonso Gonçalves - Remigração: Como Salvar Portugal

“The Los Angeles Unified School District is spending more than two billion dollars a year on these children. ... In Los Angeles County alone, this costs nearly $200 million per year.”— The Reconquista of California - Chronicles

“it will create political and economic stress in the shorter term, as smaller cohorts of working age adults will be hard-pressed to finance the retirements of larger cohorts of older ones.”— The Next America | Pew Research Center

“In the past few elections, the young/old partisan voting gap has been the biggest since the voting age was lowered to 18 in 1972.”— The Next America | Pew Research Center

“The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) estimates that immigrants (legal and illegal) comprise 20 percent of inmates in prisons and jails. The foreign-born are 15.4 percent of the nation’s adult population. ... The Federal Bureau of Prisons reports that 26.4 percent of inmates in federal prisons are non-U.S. citizens. Non-citizens are 8.6 percent of the nation’s adult population. ... From 1998 to 2007, 816,000 criminal aliens were removed from the United States because of a criminal charge or conviction. This is equal to about one-fifth of the nation’s total jail and prison population.”— Immigration and Crime

“That policy is directly responsible for Steinle's death and for the deaths of many others over the years – regardless of statistics about overall crime rates.”— Straight Talk about Immigrant Crime

“our fleet may be shrinking, our Army cannot withstand two weeks of war, and we still sell off what remains of our industrial capacity”— The Right's new parties won't save Britain

“The world order crumbling around us is, unfortunately for us, the one around which our entire economic and political systems still revolve.”— The Right's new parties won't save Britain

“Is it the inconvenient message from Borderless Welfare State that, if immigration continues by the current numbers and composition, welfare states like the Dutch one become unsustainable?”— Borderless Welfare State 2

“Brenton Tarrant, the man accused of murdering 49 worshippers and injuring dozens of others in two New Zealand mosques Friday”— New Zealand Terrorist Manifesto Influenced by Far-Right Online Ecosystem, Hatewatch Finds

“Adherents hope the collapse will give rise to radical, presently unthinkable changes in our society. Accelerationism is pushed heavily by admirers of the book Siege”— New Zealand Terrorist Manifesto Influenced by Far-Right Online Ecosystem, Hatewatch Finds

“in the face of the persistent bad economic news, Hoover’s exertions in the realm of public relations did little to restore his popularity... Come 1932, he lost in a landslide to Roosevelt”— Spin Won’t Save Trump

“LBJ’s continued efforts to win over the news media did little to make up for a disastrous policy of escalation in the Vietnam War... Jimmy Carter... was hailed as a “media genius”... until... stagflation... George W. Bush, too, was deemed a master of image-craft... only to be haunted by that very image”— Spin Won’t Save Trump

“héritiers des équarrisseurs de 1793 qui tout en étêtant l’aristocratie et autres suspects de différentes couches urbaines, n’avaient guère plus d’indulgence pour une paysannerie soupçonnée de superstitions et d’attachement à la foi catholique.”— «Grand remplacement» : quand Mélenchon appelle à la conquête démographique de la France rurale

“12 arrests have been made... four more individuals were being sought by police.”— France: 12 anti-immigration activists arrested for forming Argos group, 4 others sought by police in massive crackdown

“Some Generation Identity activists splintered into a number of different organizations after the ban, others got into politics, and some simply took a step back from political activism.”— France: 12 anti-immigration activists arrested for forming Argos group, 4 others sought by police in massive crackdown

“The longer we don’t address the obvious issues, the stronger the far right will get – if we fail to facilitate legal immigration, illegal immigration will rise.”— 'Germany needs 500,000 new immigrants every year'

“Violence against persons has continued to rise sharply, reaching a record of 900 assaults per day, including 120 assaults involving bladed weapons. This is according to the Interior Ministry’s figures. Although they only take into account crimes for which complaints are filed, they still show 220 daily cases of sexual violence in France on average. Homicides and attempted homicides have been rising sharply in recent years.”— The more time passes, the less reversible the situation will be, says prominent author Laurent Obertone on risk of civil war in France

“The French state is only strong with the weak... This is absolutely not the case with these gangs and in the suburbs, which are breeding grounds for criminals and jihadists.”— The more time passes, the less reversible the situation will be, says prominent author Laurent Obertone on risk of civil war in France

“In many of France’s migrant no-go neighborhoods, burning automobiles have been a commonplace occurrence for years ... Many of these areas are no longer safe for women to walk in freely, with many of them facing verbal harassment and even assault for simply dressing a certain way.”— Top officials warn of potential civil war in France linked to mass immigration

“More arresting is that the white population is shrinking not only in relative but in real terms. Two hundred million white people, one in every six on earth — a number equal to the entire population of France, Britain, Holland and Germany — will vanish by 2060.”— The Way Our World Ends

“According to the Pew Research Center, the Hispanic population of the United States will triple to 127 million by 2050, as Mexico’s population grows to 130 million. An erasure of the U.S. border, or merger of the two countries, or the linguistic, cultural and social annexation of the American Southwest by Mexico appears fated.”— The Way Our World Ends

“White far-right extremists predict the break-up of the union. Thomas W. Chittum... declared in his book Civil War Two, that the US, like Yugoslavia, will shatter into new, ethnically-based nations.”— The last days of a white world

“Muslim migrants and converts 'face opposition' when it comes to building cemeteries that can accommodate an Islamic burial... makes them anxious about their future... finding places for group prayers is 'a struggle'.”— Japan is opening up to immigration – but is it welcoming immigrants?

“leaving newcomers to face language, cultural, and social barriers alone... challenges in education and health care, as most Japanese are unfamiliar with Islam.”— Japan is opening up to immigration – but is it welcoming immigrants?

“Civil war, mass rapes and sexual exploitation... corrosion of institutions: these are observable consequences of mass immigration.”— Individualism and cooperation: III

“Our results reveal a misconception of the link between immigration and crime among European natives.”— Immigration and Crime: New Empirical Evidence from European Victimization Data

“The public’s misperception of a causal effect from immigration to crime can only be partly imputed to the positive cross-sectional correlation found in simple pooled regressions with no regional fixed effects.”— Immigration and Crime: New Empirical Evidence from European Victimization Data

“In spite of crowd control by police, a bridge near the scene of the attacks was overcrowded on New Year's Eve 2015. Some people on the bridge panicked and jumped onto train tracks leading to the main station. This resulted in overcrowding at the main station as travel was halted, which further escalated the situation.”— Police could have prevented Cologne NYE attacks

“This issue is particularly potent given that the state election in NRW is only two weeks away.”— Police could have prevented Cologne NYE attacks

“The required rates of net migration exceed 1% in almost half of all EBRD economies where the working-age ratio is projected to decline”— The Scale and Limits of Migration in Offsetting Population Ageing

Downfall

Granular fiscal data from Denmark and a 2023 Dutch generational accounting study using microdata showed that non-Western immigrants remained net costs across lifetimes, undermining claims of automatic fiscal benefit. Projections from Statistics Canada and the Vienna Institute demonstrated that even high immigration left old-age dependency ratios rising two- to three-fold by 2050. The simple arithmetic that had comforted policymakers no longer added up. ^{[1][4][5][44]}

Reanalyses of classic natural experiments, such as George Borjas’s 2015 revisit of the Mariel Boatlift, revealed larger wage effects for low-skilled natives than earlier consensus had allowed. European fertility trends proved less dire than forecast once immigration itself and modest rebounds were accounted for. Oxford demographers David Coleman and Stuart Basten published work showing the decline narrative had been exaggerated. ^[17][19]

Political reality shifted as voters rejected the old framing. Canada cut permanent and temporary immigration targets in 2024 after public backlash. Remigration moved from ridiculed slogan to mainstream debate in Portugal. Serial warnings by French officials about civil-war risks, once dismissed, found new audiences amid rising violence. The assumption that immigration could neatly compensate for low birth rates without significant trade-offs had lost its earlier confidence. Mounting evidence challenged the premise, though reasonable observers still differed on how best to balance labor needs, fiscal sustainability, and social cohesion. ^{[4][35][53][54]}

▶ Supporting Quotes (31)

“Average net contribution to public finances by year in Denmark. MENAPT migrants are a cost at all ages. Danes and Westerners have a null effect, while other immigrants are a net negative despite contributing during their years of peak earnings.”— Immigration does not solve population decline

“the difference in the working-age share of the population in 2060 between zero net migration and 2019 levels of migration in the United States is… 2% (57% vs 59%).”— Immigration does not solve population decline

“The chart instead shows no correlation at all, implying that countries with low fertility rates in 2000 did not experience a higher immigration rate in the following 20 years.”— Can Immigration Solve the Demographic Dilemma? – IMF F&D

“several of the lowest-fertility countries (mostly in eastern and southern Europe) experienced low immigration rates. Some of these countries, such as Hungary and Poland, have recently elected governments decidedly hostile toward immigrants.”— Can Immigration Solve the Demographic Dilemma? – IMF F&D

“These scenarios would produce very different population sizes by 2046 and 2071, but even under the highest of these immigration rates, the old-age dependency ratio would still rise... The only way to mitigate this would be to commit to continuously increasing the scale of immigration on an indefinite basis. These scenarios point to an important lesson: immigration can grow the population and slow the effects of falling fertility, but it is less efficient at changing the age composition of the population.”— Understanding the Impact of Immigration on Demography: A Canadian Case Study

“Figure 2 shows that the population age structure is expected to change more rapidly and more profoundly than population size. ... Up to 2050 this dependency ratio will increase by a factor of roughly two to three depending on the future fertility and migration levels assumed. It is interesting to see that even massive immigration to Europe makes littl”— Can Immigration Compensate for Europe’s Low Fertility?

“The results show a similar picture to that of the probability-free scenarios, but also indicate that for the old-age dependency ratio, the uncertainty about future mortality trends greatly adds to the ranges of the conditional uncertainty distributions.”— Can Immigration Compensate for Europe’s Low Fertility?

“To keep the ratio of working age people to dependents constant, hundreds of millions of immigrants would be required such that 70-80% of the population of receiving countries would be immigrants and their children.”— Low Fertility in Developed Countries (Guest Lecture by Michael Teitelbaum)

“In 2010, the average unlawful immigrant household received around $24,721 in government benefits and services while paying some $10,334 in taxes. This generated an average annual fiscal deficit (benefits received minus taxes paid) of around $14,387 per household.”— The Fiscal Cost of Unlawful Immigrants and Amnesty to the U.S. Taxpayer

“The doubts about CBO’s large number involve problems with encounter data (it measures events, not individuals), debates about migrant return rates and criticism of the household survey (whether it overcounts or undercounts immigrants).”— Unprecedented U.S. immigration surge boosts job growth, output

“Borjas instead reported a large decline in the wages of high school dropouts... Borjas’s findings remain controversial, with a number of studies challenging his analysis.”— Immigration Economics - UHERO

“A new paper by Oxford researchers argues that some countries in Western Europe, and the USA, Canada, Australia and New Zealand now have birth rates that are now relatively close to replacement, that the underlying trend in Europe is upwards, and that population ageing, although inevitable, is likely to be ‘manageable’.”— Claims about the decline of the West are ‘exaggerated’ | University of Oxford

“Nor can we sensibly expect the emergency to end quickly: it is unlikely that everything will be resolved almost autonomously, without deliberate intervention, and that tensions are on the verge of dissipating like a summer storm—which is usually short-lived and of no lasting concern.”— Cardinal Giacomo Biffi: On Immigration

“Is the current government deceitful when it claims to fight anti-Semitism?”— A Conversation with French Writer Renaud Camus

“U.S. census data shows the foreign-born population made up 13.9% of the total in 2022, and the bureau's latest monthly estimate suggests it hit 15% last year... if it weren't for immigration, the population of the United States would be shrinking... Population growth rates in the 2020s are the lowest of any decade in the history of the U.S., which is bad for the economy.”— Can the US handle more immigration? History and the Census suggest the answer is yes.

“A concretização da vitória metapolítica do trabalho da Reconquista no debate migratório surgiu através de André Ventura [...] Para além do líder da oposição André Ventura e de Pedro Frazão, também os deputados Rita Matias, Madalena Cordeiro e Bruno Nunes, e o ministro da presidência António Leitão Amaro já fizeram uso deste termo.”— Afonso Gonçalves - Remigração: Como Salvar Portugal

“The Stanford 9 test scores reveal a huge disparity between Hispanic and white students, hi 1999, white students averaged in the 60th percentile in reading and the 65th percentile in math. Hispanic students averaged in the 20th percentile in reading and the 25th percentile in math.”— The Reconquista of California - Chronicles

“New government data indicate that immigrants have high rates of criminality, while older academic research found low rates. ... Under contract to DHS in 2004, Fentress, Inc., reviewed 8.1 million inmate records from state prison systems and 45 large county jails. They found that 22 percent of inmates were foreign-born.”— Immigration and Crime

“Data collected by the Census Bureau in 2013 shows that 23 per 1,000 male Mexican immigrants ages 18 to 40 are institutionalized... This compares to 31 per 1,000 for native-born men in this age group. However, looking at only non-black native men (18-40) shows an incarceration rate of 20 per 1,000.”— Straight Talk about Immigrant Crime

“Yet it is this order that is already dead, and the old world of hard power and industrial capacity is writing the outlines of the coming century.”— The Right's new parties won't save Britain

“A multidisciplinary team of four experienced researchers investigated this topic in the Netherlands. They had access to unique anonymised microdata from Statistics Netherlands on all inhabitants of the country. In estimating the fiscal impact of immigration, the net lifetime contribution of immigrants to public coffers was estimated by employing the method of generational accounting.”— Borderless Welfare State 2

“Tarrant, a 28-year-old man from Australia, titled his manifesto “The Great Replacement.” This term can be traced to the French writer Renaud Camus. Influential on the racist right”— New Zealand Terrorist Manifesto Influenced by Far-Right Online Ecosystem, Hatewatch Finds

“the effects of their actions make themselves felt on the general public, who generally can tell when a policy isn’t working. Hoover discovered this”— Spin Won’t Save Trump

“Argos supports Mégane and her family... The group has also been active in protesting on behalf of Thomas, who was brutally stabbed to death by a gang of migrants”— France: 12 anti-immigration activists arrested for forming Argos group, 4 others sought by police in massive crackdown

“Absolutely not. There are new victims all the time. Immigration is not questioned, and neither is the justice system... The more time passes, the less reversible the situation will be.”— The more time passes, the less reversible the situation will be, says prominent author Laurent Obertone on risk of civil war in France

“General de Villiers said that he fears France “could fall slowly or very rapidly” into a “civil war” that could be ignited by “a spark like in 1789”.”— Top officials warn of potential civil war in France linked to mass immigration

“'At the moment ethnic minorities are about 40 per cent in London. The demographics show that white people in London will become a minority by 2010,' said Jasper.”— The last days of a white world

“The government has been planning an electronic authentication system... Justice Minister Suzuki Keisuke said that the process needed to be 'accelerated' by two years... due to the increase in foreigners.”— Japan is opening up to immigration – but is it welcoming immigrants?

“conventional centre-right politics has been recurrently pushed aside by various forms of national populism... country-club Republicans get Trumped, Gaullists get Le Penned, Forza Italia get Melonied, the Tories are being Faraged”— Individualism and cooperation: III

“Our empirical findings show that an increase in immigration does not affect crime victimization, but it is associated with an increase in the fear of crime.”— Immigration and Crime: New Empirical Evidence from European Victimization Data

“In all cases, the empirical results reveal no evidence of an increase in criminality from the recent immigration waves in Europe.”— Immigration and Crime: New Empirical Evidence from European Victimization Data

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ID: FA-20260216-8bd5dd1d · Created: 2026-02-16T00:25:12.062923 · Schema v3