America Faces STEM Shortage

False Assumption: The US faces a massive shortage of STEM workers that justifies expanding the H-1B visa program.

Summaries Written by FARAgent (AI) on February 24, 2026 · Pending Verification

American STEM workers lost jobs, saw wages squeezed, and watched firms replace them with cheaper visa labor while calling it a national emergency. Studies cited by critics estimate the H-1B program reduced wages in some STEM fields by as much as 5.1 percent and employment by 10.8 percent; high profile layoffs at HP, IBM, and later other tech firms fed the charge that a "shortage" was being used to justify labor arbitrage. H-1B workers themselves often bore the cost too, tied to employers in conditions critics compared to indenture because changing jobs could mean losing legal status. The shortage story took hold anyway from the 1980s on, after NSF-linked projections and later business lobbying warned that America was not producing enough scientists and engineers, and politicians repeated familiar lines about the need for the "best and brightest" and for more visas to keep the country competitive.

By the 1990s and 2000s, the claim had become standard Washington talk. Executives, industry groups, and advocates such as Vivek Wadhwa argued that stagnant numbers of graduates, global competition, and stories from firms like Apple showed the economy needed many more engineers and programmers than the domestic market could supply. There was some evidence in its favor: certain specialties and regions did report hiring difficulty, unemployment in parts of STEM was often lower than in the broader economy, and elite employers said immigration helped them recruit scarce talent quickly. The President's Jobs and Competitiveness Council and other official bodies echoed the view that the country needed more engineers each year.

But a growing body of evidence has challenged the idea of a broad, persistent STEM labor shortage. Researchers such as Norman Matloff, Michael Teitelbaum, Hal Salzman, and Ron Hira have pointed to weak wage growth, large numbers of STEM graduates working outside STEM, and recurring layoffs as signs of surplus rather than scarcity in many fields. Labor economists have also noted that in a real shortage, wages usually rise sharply and employers relax credential demands; in much of tech, critics say, the pattern has often been the reverse. The current debate is narrower than it once was: an influential minority of researchers now argues there is no general STEM shortage, only intermittent shortages in specific occupations, firms, or locations, while business groups and many policymakers still defend H-1B expansion as necessary for innovation and growth.

Status: A small but growing and influential group of experts think this was false

People Involved

Vivek Wadhwa built a prominent platform as an immigration advocate and researcher affiliated with Stanford, Duke, and UC-Berkeley. In testimony before the U.S. House Judiciary Committee he argued that America needed more foreign engineers and scientists because visa policies were chasing away talent. He cited his team's research showing that 52 percent of Silicon Valley startups from 1995 to 2005 had been founded by immigrants, a figure that had slipped to 44 percent, and warned this drop signaled harm to innovation. He prescribed seven immigration fixes including more green cards and startup visas. The testimony helped keep the shortage narrative alive in congressional debates for years afterward. ^[4][1]
Norman Matloff, a professor of computer science at the University of California, Davis, spent years documenting what he saw as H-1B exploitation and mediocre foreign talent. He produced a short overview paper, a 99-page academic article in the University of Michigan Journal of Law Reform, and 130 pages of congressional testimony arguing there was no software labor shortage. His work showed that H-1B workers were often paid less, that many foreign students did not outperform Americans in school or patents, and that age discrimination against programmers began around 35. The Department of Labor audit he helped publicize added weight to his critique. ^[6][1]
Steve Jobs, then CEO of Apple, sat down with President Barack Obama in 2011 and told him Apple could have brought 700,000 manufacturing jobs back to the United States but for an engineering shortage. He repeated the claim that he simply could not recruit 30,000 U.S. engineers. The statement from one of the most visible tech leaders of the era gave the shortage assumption fresh credibility in the highest policy circles and helped shift the public justification for offshoring from cost to talent. ^[2][8]
Michael S. Teitelbaum, vice president of the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and a demographer who had directed its science and engineering labor market research, stated flatly that there were no general shortages of scientists and engineers and that evidence pointed instead to surpluses. In 2014 he wrote that alarms about widespread shortages were inconsistent with nearly all available data. His position as a respected insider made his dissent particularly uncomfortable for those promoting the assumption. ^[3][5][11]
Brad Smith, president of Microsoft, used a 2012 speech and accompanying report to claim that a 3.4 percent unemployment rate for computer occupations proved a shortage existed. He applied the national 4 percent full-employment benchmark to the tech sector. The company's "A National Talent Strategy" report urged more immigration and more STEM graduates, helping keep the assumption embedded in corporate lobbying for another decade. ^[5][10]

▶ Supporting Quotes (34)

“Immigration advocates, such as Vivek Wadhwa, claim that the absence of upward trends in compensation for STEM worker is entirely consistent with shortages because the dynamism of the tech sector means that skills quickly become redundant and therefore less well-compensated.”— Will America lose its technological edge without H1-B workers?

“According to Norman Matloff, the lower wages of H-1B workers are symptomatic of an exploitative system... In his article ‘Immigration and the Tech Industry’, he explains how this system benefits employers by reducing labor costs and restricting worker mobility... Evidence suggests that H-1B visa holders do not significantly outperform domestic workers... as Matloff notes in his paper ‘Are Foreign Students the Best and the Brightest?'”— Will America lose its technological edge without H1-B workers?

“At a meeting in February 2011, Jobs told the president that Apple would have located 700,000 manufacturing jobs in the United States instead of China if only the company had been able to find enough U.S. engineers to support its operations.”— What Shortages? The Real Evidence About the STEM Workforce

“five years later, a follow-up report by committee chair Norm Augustine likened a perceived deepening of these problems to a Category 5 storm capable of wreaking untold destruction on the nation’s economy.”— What Shortages? The Real Evidence About the STEM Workforce

“Michael S. Teitelbaum, vice president of the Sloan Foundation, opined that there are no general shortages of scientists and engineers. He went even further, to state that there is evidence suggesting surpluses: there are significantly more science and engineering graduates in the United States than attractive positions available in the workforce.”— STEM crisis or STEM surplus? Yes and yes

“Yet, as the research of my team at Stanford, Duke, and UC-Berkeley has shown, our visa policies are doing the opposite: chasing away this talent. [...] We must stop this brain drain and do all we can to bring more engineers and scientists here.”— Testimony of Vivek Wadhwa

“At a 2012 event on education and immigration reform, for example, Microsoft president Brad Smith, who was advocating for large increases in STEM worker supply, said, “If you look at the occupation that we know best, computer-related occupation[s], the unemployment rate is only 3.4%. Since the traditional definition of full employment is about 4%, that tells us that we have a shortage.””— Is There Really a STEM Workforce Shortage?

“In October 1999, Susan deFife, CEO of womenConnect.com of McLean, VA, testiﬁed to the Senate in support of higher H-1B quotas. She gave the example of a new graduate she had hired in 1998 as a system administrator, a Mexican national who had just graduated from a U.S. school.”— Debunking the Myth of a Desperate Software Labor Shortage

“I recommend that you start with my quick overview paper of the major issues and my proposal for reform...I have published an extensive (99 pages, 300+ footnotes) academic paper on these issues in the University of Michigan Journal of Law Reform...My updated congressional testimony (130+ pages), in Web version,and the better-formatted PDF form.”— Debunking the Myth of a Desperate Software Labor Shortage

“Seated between Apple founder Steve Jobs and Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg, the conversation quickly turned to the large shortage of trained engineers in the United States, according to Walter Isaacson’s biography of Steve Jobs. Jobs reportedly put the case bluntly to the President, stating that he employs 700,000 factory workers in China because he cannot recruit 30,000 engineers in the United States.”— Help Wanted: The Role of Foreign Workers in the innovation Economy

“with Vivek Ramaswamy claiming that companies hire foreign-born workers because “American culture has venerated mediocrity over excellence for way too long”.”— Will America lose its technological edge without H1-B workers?

“Immigration advocates, such as Vivek Wadhwa, claim that the absence of upward trends in compensation for STEM worker is entirely consistent with shortages because the dynamism of the tech sector means that skills quickly become redundant”— Will America lose its technological edge without H1-B workers?

“According to Norman Matloff, the lower wages of H-1B workers are symptomatic of an exploitative system that ties visa holders to their sponsoring employers.”— Will America lose its technological edge without H1-B workers?

““unsubstantiated claims that there is a significant shortage of STEM talent have been a running feature of STEM workforce policy discussions” for decades.”— New data show no STEM worker shortage

“Research on the H-1B skilled worker program by Notre Dame professor Kirk Doran and his coauthors offers the best evidence of this.”— New data show no STEM worker shortage

““The alarms about widespread shortages or shortfalls in the number of US scientists and engineers are quite inconsistent with nearly all available evidence.””— Is There Really a STEM Workforce Shortage?

“In 1959, economists Kenneth J. Arrow and William M. Capron published an article responding to complaints of a shortage of scientists and engineers, noting that “in view of all the discussion of the ‘shortage’ problem, it is remarkable how little direct evidence is available.””— Is There Really a STEM Workforce Shortage?

““The metrics Microsoft uses to gauge employment trends for computer-related occupations fly in the face of other rigorous studies that show no labor shortages exist,” Costa said.”— No evidence of worker shortage in STEM fields, new EPI study finds

“In recent years, Bill Gates, Mark Zuckerberg, and other employers in technology have provided millions of dollars to lobby Congress to increase the number of workers, including those with STEM degrees allowed into the country. They have argued that the nation needs more of such workers.”— Is There a STEM Worker Shortage? A look at employment and wages in science, technology, engineering, and math

“Hal Salzman, a public policy professor at Rutgers University and one of the authors of the EPI report, observed in a different article that, “The nation graduates more than two times as many STEM students each year as find jobs in STEM fields.” In his research, he has emphasized the lack of evidence that STEM workers are in short supply, particularly the lack of wage growth.”— Is There a STEM Worker Shortage? A look at employment and wages in science, technology, engineering, and math

“In a March 2014 article for the Atlantic Monthly entitled “The Science and Engineering Shortage Is a Myth”, demographer Michael Teitelbaum summarized much of the recent literature on STEM employment. ... “No one has been able to find any evidence indicating current widespread labor market shortages or hiring difficulties in science and engineering occupations that require bachelor’s degrees or higher.””— Is There a STEM Worker Shortage? A look at employment and wages in science, technology, engineering, and math

“Fify-ﬁve years later, in 2014, demographer Michael S. Teitelbaum wrote: “Te alarms about widespread shortages or shortfalls in the number of US scientists and engineers are quite inconsistent with nearly all available evidence.””— 31–35 Hira Is There Really a STEM Workforce Shortage Summer 2022

“At a 2012 event on education and immigration reform, for example, Microsof president Brad Smith, who was advocating for large increases in STEM worker supply, said, “If you look at the occupation that we know best, computer-related occupation[s], the unemployment rate is only 3.4%. Since the traditional deﬁnition of full employment is about 4%, that tells us that we have a shortage.””— 31–35 Hira Is There Really a STEM Workforce Shortage Summer 2022

“Since Day 1, the Biden-Harris Administration has taken on the supply chain disruptions... When President Biden took office, there were 30,000 fewer trucking jobs than in February 2020... Major Achievements of Biden Effort to Expand and Improve Trucking Jobs.”— FACT SHEET: The Biden Administration’s Unprecedented Actions to Expand and Improve Trucking Jobs | The White House

“The Biden-Harris Administration is announcing the following immediate actions:”— FACT SHEET: The Biden-Harris Administration Trucking Action Plan to Strengthen America's Trucking Workforce

“"I didn't change my mind on H-1B visas. I've always felt we have to have the most competent people in our country. We need smart people in our country. We need a lot of people coming in. We're going to have jobs like never before."”— 'We need smart people in our country': Trump says he hasn't changed his mind on H1B visas

“This recent support aligns Trump with billionaire Elon Musk, who has also defended the program.”— 'We need smart people in our country': Trump says he hasn't changed his mind on H1B visas

“Vivek Ramaswamy, a Trump supporter, has previously criticized the H-1B program, advocating for a system that prioritizes highly skilled individuals, promotes competition, and reduces bureaucracy.”— 'We need smart people in our country': Trump says he hasn't changed his mind on H1B visas

“The United States is currently excluding too many workers who will start businesses, create jobs, foster innovation, and help grow our economy.”— Do Mittens' Advisors Know Anything About Immigration Law? | Blog Posts

“"Trump's shortsighted proclamation has created significant barriers for U.S. employers, universities, hospitals, and research institutions that rely on highly-skilled professionals. The H-1B program does not replace the domestic workforce; it serves as a bridge between U.S. talent and global talent that fuels U.S. economic growth."”— Donald Trump's H-1B visa moves would be reversed under new proposal

“In February, a bipartisan group of 100 members of Congress urged the administration to exempt the health care sector from the $100,000 H-1B visa fee.”— Donald Trump's H-1B visa moves would be reversed under new proposal

“"Prioritizing foreign labor over the well-being and prosperity of American citizens undermines our values and national interests."”— Donald Trump's H-1B visa moves would be reversed under new proposal

Organizations Involved

The National Science Foundation used its statutory role to track scientific personnel to publish a study in the 1980s that projected a sharp decline in domestic STEM supply. The report proposed foreign recruitment as a remedy and became a foundational document cited in later policy debates. It framed doctorates as a waste of American time better spent in industry and justified importing talent even at lower wages. Decades later the same agency continued to cite similar projections despite accumulating wage data that contradicted them. ^[1][5]

The National Academies of Sciences released the 2005 report "Rising Above the Gathering Storm" and a follow-up volume that dominated the public narrative for years. Chaired by Norm Augustine, the committee likened America's competitive problems to a Category 5 storm and called for more STEM training plus expanded guest-worker programs. The reports were treated as authoritative by Congress and the executive branch even after later studies questioned their assumptions. ^[2][3]

The Information Technology Association of America orchestrated a public-relations campaign in the late 1990s that portrayed desperate IT shortages and frantic employers unable to fill programmer positions. The campaign produced a rash of newspaper stories and helped push Congress to raise the annual H-1B quota, signed into law by President Clinton in October 1998. The same group later shifted its rationale from cost savings to talent shortages after public backlash against offshoring. ^[6]

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the Information Technology Industry Council, and the Partnership for a New American Economy jointly produced a report claiming 230,000 unfilled advanced-degree STEM positions by 2018 and 1.9 job openings per unemployed STEM worker. The three organizations used their combined institutional weight to lobby for immigration reform that would import more foreign STEM workers. The report avoided any discussion of compensation trends or credential inflation. ^[8][11]

▶ Supporting Quotes (32)

“During the 1980s, the National Science Foundation published a study claiming that there was a talent shortage in the STEM sector (which was heavily criticised by some). Relying on demographic trends, NSF analysts predictedt there would be a decline in the supply of STEM professionals.”— Will America lose its technological edge without H1-B workers?

“Notably, the National Research Council in 2005 issued a report called Rising Above the Gathering Storm, which identified a need for the country to invest more in research and innovation and to train more people to do the work.”— What Shortages? The Real Evidence About the STEM Workforce

“In the face of growing public opposition to offshoring operations and layoffs, government and industry messaging about offshoring shifted from cost savings to the need for a talent search”— What Shortages? The Real Evidence About the STEM Workforce

“Economic projections point to a need for approximately 1 million more STEM professionals than the U.S. will produce at the current rate over the next decade if the country is to retain its historical preeminence in science and technology.—President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology”— STEM crisis or STEM surplus? Yes and yes

“Most notable is the National Academies’ report Rising Above the Gathering Storm, which called for improvements in kindergarten through 12th-grade science and mathematics education and increasing the attractiveness of higher education, among other recommendations.”— STEM crisis or STEM surplus? Yes and yes

“And, since its establishment in 1950, one of the National Science Foundation’s eight enumerated functions has been to “maintain a register of scientific and technical personnel and in other ways provide a central clearinghouse for information covering all scientific and technical personnel in the United States.””— Is There Really a STEM Workforce Shortage?

“the projected ten-year employment changes from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) biennial Employment Projections (EP) report... including by the National Science Board and even in the text of proposed legislation”— Is There Really a STEM Workforce Shortage?

“Due to an extensive public relations campaign orchestrated by an industry trade organization, the Information Technology Association of America (ITAA), a rash of newspaper articles have been appearing since early 1997, claiming desperate labor shortages in the information-technology ﬁeld.”— Debunking the Myth of a Desperate Software Labor Shortage

“the computer industry's claims of a desperate software labor shortage, etc.”— Debunking the Myth of a Desperate Software Labor Shortage

“I have published an extensive (99 pages, 300+ footnotes) academic paper on these issues in the University of Michigan Journal of Law Reform.”— Debunking the Myth of a Desperate Software Labor Shortage

“the Dept. of Labor audit of the H-1B work visa program”— Debunking the Myth of a Desperate Software Labor Shortage

“About the Information Technology Industry Council The Information Technology Industry Council (ITI) is the premier advocacy and policy organization for the world’s leading innovation companies.”— Help Wanted: The Role of Foreign Workers in the innovation Economy

“About the partnership for a new american economy The Partnership for a New American Economy brings together more than 500 Republican, Democratic, and Independent mayors and business leaders who support immigration reforms that will help create jobs for Americans today.”— Help Wanted: The Role of Foreign Workers in the innovation Economy

“About the US chamber of commerce The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is the world’s largest business federation representing the interests of more than three million businesses and organizations of every size, sector, and region.”— Help Wanted: The Role of Foreign Workers in the innovation Economy

“During the 1980s, the National Science Foundation published a study claiming that there was a talent shortage in the STEM sector”— Will America lose its technological edge without H1-B workers?

“the H-1B visa program, lauded by tech entrepreneurs as vital for maintaining America’s technological edge.”— Will America lose its technological edge without H1-B workers?

“A new report from the National Academies of Sciences again makes this argument... This includes the 307 pages of the new National Academies report mentioned above, which has no discussion of trends in compensation.”— New data show no STEM worker shortage

“The idea that there is a “shortage” of science, technology, engineering, and math workers in the United States has become an article of faith among many journalists, industry advocates, academics, and politicians.”— New data show no STEM worker shortage

“Frequently, the main stakeholder groups steering these conversations—businesses, universities, and government research agencies—benefit from the push to train and import more STEM workers.”— Is There Really a STEM Workforce Shortage?

“In fact, creating new green cards for STEM workers and increasing the number of H-1B visas now will exacerbate STEM unemployment rates, which are already higher than they would be if the labor market were at full employment, and suppress wages in STEM fields.”— No evidence of worker shortage in STEM fields, new EPI study finds

“In Stem Labor Shortages? Microsoft report distorts reality about computing occupations, EPI immigration policy analyst Daniel Costa explains that there is currently no labor shortage in computer-related and STEM occupations and that Microsoft’s methodology for projecting a future shortage is flawed.”— No evidence of worker shortage in STEM fields, new EPI study finds

“The Chamber of Commerce and other employer groups have worked tirelessly to increase employment-based immigration, for both permanent (green card) and guest workers.”— Is There a STEM Worker Shortage? A look at employment and wages in science, technology, engineering, and math

“Frequently, the main stakeholder groups steering these conversations—businesses, universities, and government research agencies—beneﬁt from the push to train and import more STEM workers.”— 31–35 Hira Is There Really a STEM Workforce Shortage Summer 2022

“Te projected ten-year employment changes from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) biennial Employment Projections (EP) report rely on a methodology that extrapolates recent empirical trends in occupations and industries to determine the projections.”— 31–35 Hira Is There Really a STEM Workforce Shortage Summer 2022

“Last December, the Administration confronted these challenges head on. The U.S. Department of Transportation and the U.S. Department of Labor launched a Trucking Action Plan to increase the supply of truck drivers by creating new pathways into the profession, cutting red tape to expand high quality training through Registered Apprenticeship, and laying the foundation for improving job quality to keep people in the profession.”— FACT SHEET: The Biden Administration’s Unprecedented Actions to Expand and Improve Trucking Jobs | The White House

“Today, the Departments of Transportation and Labor are launching an effort to support and expand access to quality driving jobs now and in the years ahead.”— FACT SHEET: The Biden-Harris Administration Trucking Action Plan to Strengthen America's Trucking Workforce

“FMCSA will provide over $30 million in funding to help states expedite CDLs.”— FACT SHEET: The Biden-Harris Administration Trucking Action Plan to Strengthen America's Trucking Workforce

“The U.S. Chamber of Commerce and other challengers say the fee exceeds presidential power.”— Donald Trump's H-1B visa moves would be reversed under new proposal

“Sie fordern nun einen verbindlichen Bund-Länder-Pakt für den Rechtsstaat – auch um das Vertrauen der Menschen in die Demokratie zu stärken.”— 274.441 Beamte: Zahl der Polizisten erreicht neuen Höchststand - WELT

“Oracle, the software company headquartered in Austin, Texas, has filed thousands of petitions for H-1B visas in the past two fiscal years, even as it lays off thousands of American workers as part of a broader organizational shift.”— Oracle Files Thousands of H-1B Visa Petitions Amid Mass Layoffs - Austin Today

The Foundation

The assumption that the United States faced a massive shortage of STEM workers rested on several claims that once sounded authoritative. The National Science Foundation's 1980s study used demographic projections to forecast a steep drop in domestic supply and argued that foreign recruitment was the logical solution. Supporters found the logic persuasive because it aligned with long-standing concerns about competitiveness and because the agency had a formal mandate to monitor scientific personnel. Yet subsequent data showed STEM graduate supply proved sufficient and wages stagnated rather than rising sharply as basic economics would predict in a true shortage. ^[1][5]

Proponents also asserted that the H-1B program attracted the "best and brightest" who would drive innovation. Vivek Wadhwa cited his research on immigrant-founded startups and argued that foreign-born workers led advances in robotics, genomics, digital medicine, and artificial intelligence. The claim seemed credible to many policymakers because it came from visible tech entrepreneurs and aligned with the idea that small teams of diverse thinkers could solve grand challenges. Later examinations found that visa holders often attended below-average schools, produced fewer patents per person, and that roughly 80 percent of sampled Indian engineers scored as unfit for the roles according to one industry assessment. ^[1][4]

Employment projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics were repeatedly cited as proof of unmet demand. The President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology warned the economy needed 10,000 more engineers each year and that 34 percent more undergraduate STEM degrees were required annually. These figures sounded alarming and were echoed by the National Academies and the National Science Board. Critics later noted that the projections had overestimated growth from 2000 to 2010 by a factor of three and underestimated growth from 2010 to 2020 by more than a factor of two because they could not anticipate tech bubbles, busts, or offshoring. ^[3][5][2]

Low unemployment rates were offered as another straightforward signal of shortage. Microsoft and others pointed to a 3.4 percent jobless rate in computer occupations and compared it to the government's 4 percent full-employment benchmark. Industry groups also highlighted 1.9 job openings per unemployed STEM worker and employer complaints about unfilled positions. These metrics were persuasive to legislators who heard repeated testimony from CEOs. Counter-analyses showed that sustained unemployment below 2 percent with rising wages had never occurred in these fields, that real wages for many STEM occupations declined or stagnated between 2016 and 2021, and that employers received huge numbers of resumes yet rejected the vast majority. ^{[5][6][8][10]}

▶ Supporting Quotes (41)

“The myth of the STEM labor shortage soon became engrained in the American imagination. This is despite many having argued that the supply of STEM graduates is quite sufficient to meet the needs of the economy. Thanks to the growing supply of STEM workers, fuelled in large part by immigration, there has been no upward trend in their wage compensation since the early 2000s – as Steven Camarota and Jason Richwine have shown.”— Will America lose its technological edge without H1-B workers?

“Evidence suggests that H-1B visa holders do not significantly outperform domestic workers on measures like attendance at elite schools, patent production, and entrepreneurial success... Foreign computer science PhD students are more likely to be enrolled at below average schools. And they do not generate patents at higher rates than their domestic counterparts... In a 2020 study, Aspiring Minds found that 80% of Indian engineering graduates are unfit for jobs in the knowledge economy.”— Will America lose its technological edge without H1-B workers?

“the recent claim by the president’s Jobs and Competitiveness Council that the economy needs to produce an additional 10,000 engineers each year to address a shortage”— What Shortages? The Real Evidence About the STEM Workforce

“According to the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology, the United States would need to increase its yearly production of undergraduate STEM degrees by 34 percent over current rates to match the demand forecast for STEM professionals.”— STEM crisis or STEM surplus? Yes and yes

“Our earlier research had determined that from 1995 to 2005—the time of the Internet boom—52% of Silicon Valley’s startups were founded by people born abroad—people like me. When we updated our research recently, we found that this proportion had dropped to 44%.”— Testimony of Vivek Wadhwa

“All of these advances are being made by entrepreneurs working hand in hand with engineers, scientists, physicians, and researchers. Foreign-born workers are leading the charge in all of these fields. [...] In the era of exponential technologies that we are entering, education and skill matter more than ever.”— Testimony of Vivek Wadhwa

“BLS overestimated job growth between 2000 to 2010 by more than a factor of three... In its 2010 to 2020 projections, by contrast, BLS underestimated growth by more than a factor of two.”— Is There Really a STEM Workforce Shortage?

“for computer and mathematical occupations, according to an Economic Policy Institute policy memorandum... full employment yields an unemployment rate closer to 2%.”— Is There Really a STEM Workforce Shortage?

“the number of bachelor’s degrees conferred in computer science alone was 97,047—40,147 more than the implied annual demand from the BLS projections. This mismatch is even more pronounced for engineering”— Is There Really a STEM Workforce Shortage?

“Yet readers of the articles proclaiming a shortage would be perplexed if they also knew that Microsoft only hires 2% of its applicants for software positions, and that this rate is typical in the industry. Software employers, large or small, across the nation, concede that they receive huge numbers of re’sume’s but reject most of them without even an interview.”— Debunking the Myth of a Desperate Software Labor Shortage

“Debunking the Myth of a Desperate Software Labor Shortage...the computer industry's claims of a desperate software labor shortage”— Debunking the Myth of a Desperate Software Labor Shortage

“While the current national unemployment rate hovers around 8 percent, the unemployment rate for US citizens with PhDs in STEM is just 3.15 percent, and 3.4 percent for those with master’s degrees in STEM. Given that the US government has defined “full-employment” to be 4 percent, this suggests a skills shortage of STEM professionals with advanced degrees.”— Help Wanted: The Role of Foreign Workers in the innovation Economy

“The US government estimates that jobs in STEM fields have grown three times faster than jobs in the rest of the US economy over the last 10 years, and expects STEM job creation to continue to outperform over the coming decade... by 2018 there will be more than 230,000 advanced degree STEM jobs that will not be filled even if every single new American STEM grad finds a job.”— Help Wanted: The Role of Foreign Workers in the innovation Economy

“A June 2011 study by McKinsey & Company found that more than one in every four science and engineering firms report difficulty hiring. And a recent survey of national job posting data revealed that there are currently 1.9 job openings for every unemployed worker in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (“STEM”).”— Help Wanted: The Role of Foreign Workers in the innovation Economy

“During the 1980s, the National Science Foundation published a study claiming that there was a talent shortage in the STEM sector (which was heavily criticised by some). Relying on demographic trends, NSF analysts predicted there would be a decline in the supply of STEM professionals.”— Will America lose its technological edge without H1-B workers?

“As Howard University Professor Ron Hira has observed, “unsubstantiated claims that there is a significant shortage of STEM talent have been a running feature of STEM workforce policy discussions” for decades. As he suggests, the most straightforward way to test for a “shortage” is to report wage and benefits trends over time in the occupations of interest.”— New data show no STEM worker shortage

“If immigrant workers are truly exceptional talents that do not displace natives and so stimulate the economy as many contend, then the firms that win the H-1B lottery each year should increase their employment relative to the lottery losers. But Doran and his coauthors found that the firms that won the lottery ended up employing fewer workers than the firms that lost.”— New data show no STEM worker shortage

“BLS overestimated job growth between 2000 to 2010 by more than a factor of three. ... In its 2010 to 2020 projections, by contrast, BLS underestimated growth by more than a factor of two.”— Is There Really a STEM Workforce Shortage?

“For computer and mathematical occupations, according to an Economic Policy Institute policy memorandum responding to Microsoft’s claims, full employment yields an unemployment rate closer to 2%. Thus, at 3.4% unemployment, “there are too many educated, experienced STEM workers who are trying to find a job; there is not a shortage of them,””— Is There Really a STEM Workforce Shortage?

“real wages for computer and mathematical occupations declined by 0.4% over the five-year period. ... Real wages declined for all types of engineers as well as for several other STEM occupations, including software developers,”— Is There Really a STEM Workforce Shortage?

“The Microsoft report bases its labor-shortage projection on the assumption that U.S. universities are not graduating enough students in computer science to fill computer-related occupations. However, workers in computer-related occupations come from a variety of educational backgrounds. Data show that less than one-fourth to less than one-half of workers in computing occupations have a computer science degree.”— No evidence of worker shortage in STEM fields, new EPI study finds

“Citing the current unemployment rate of 3.4 percent for workers in computer-related occupations, the Microsoft report says a labor shortage already exists, as this rate is less than the accepted national full-employment rate of 4.0 percent. Yet, since the end of the recession that ended in November 2001, whenever the national economy has been at full employment (with an unemployment rate between 4 and 5 percent), the unemployment rate of workers in computer occupations has not surpassed 2.4 percent”— No evidence of worker shortage in STEM fields, new EPI study finds

“Finally, while a labor shortage would normally result in sharp wage increases, the average hourly wage for workers possessing a bachelor’s degree or above in computer and math occupations rose less than half a percent per year from 2000 to 2011.”— No evidence of worker shortage in STEM fields, new EPI study finds

“While employers argue that there are not enough workers with technical skills, most prior research has found little evidence that such workers are in short supply. ... the findings show that the country has more than twice as many workers with STEM degrees as there are STEM jobs. Also consistent with other research, we find only modest levels of wage growth for such workers for more than a decade.”— Is There a STEM Worker Shortage? A look at employment and wages in science, technology, engineering, and math

“Despite the economic downturn, Census Bureau data show that, between 2007 and 2012, about 700,000 new immigrants who have STEM degrees were allowed to settle in the country, yet at the same time, total STEM employment grew by only about 500,000.”— Is There a STEM Worker Shortage? A look at employment and wages in science, technology, engineering, and math

“BLS overestimated job growth between 2000 to 2010 by more than a factor of three. In 2000, BLS was crafing its projections during the steep increase of the dot-com and telecom bubbles and did not—perhaps could not—predict the ensuing bust.”— 31–35 Hira Is There Really a STEM Workforce Shortage Summer 2022

“However, this reasoning was ﬂawed because it used the national full unemployment rate as a benchmark for the rate for a speciﬁc occupation. In fact, rather than indicating a shortage, a 3.4% unemployment rate is highly elevated for computer occupations”— 31–35 Hira Is There Really a STEM Workforce Shortage Summer 2022

““When demand exceeds supply in a particular occupation, compensation tends to rise relative to compensation in other occupations that require similar education, eﬀort, and working conditions.” Simply put, when a shortage exists in an occupation, the relative earnings of those workers are expected to rise. Yet recent data show no such increases for many STEM jobs.”— 31–35 Hira Is There Really a STEM Workforce Shortage Summer 2022

“Trucking costs grew more than 20 percent last year as a surge in demand for goods caused by the pandemic confronted a decline in trucking employment that preceded the pandemic. The low supply of drivers is driven by high turnover and low job quality. Turnover in trucking routinely averages 90 percent for some carriers and drivers spend about 40 percent of their workday waiting to load and unload goods – hours that are typically unpaid. Many truckers are not directly employed and operate as independent small businesses, bearing the burden of leasing, gas, insurance, and maintenance costs themselves. These financial burdens cause many to leave the profession. Trucking also draws on an older, heavily male workforce—the median age is four years higher than the overall workforce and almost 90 percent of the industry is men—which adds to its recruiting challenges.”— FACT SHEET: The Biden Administration’s Unprecedented Actions to Expand and Improve Trucking Jobs | The White House

“According to one estimate, long-haul full-truckload drivers only spend an average of 6.5 hours per working day driving despite being allowed to drive a maximum of 11 hours.”— FACT SHEET: The Biden-Harris Administration Trucking Action Plan to Strengthen America's Trucking Workforce

“Reflecting that demand, wages for employed drivers in all trucking segments have increased 7-12% in the last year alone, but employment in some segments is still below pre-pandemic levels.”— FACT SHEET: The Biden-Harris Administration Trucking Action Plan to Strengthen America's Trucking Workforce

“The H-1B visa program allows highly skilled foreign workers to work in the US.”— 'We need smart people in our country': Trump says he hasn't changed his mind on H1B visas

““America has faced internal strife many times,” they say. “We always figure it out.” The 1960s are typically proffered as a key example. But this is emotive self-delusion.”— The Separation

“America is bound by an Idea, as no other nation is bound... The American nation has a unique identity, in which values and principles play a central role... But what if the American Idea lost its power?”— The Separation

“The United States is also projected to face a shortage of 230,000 science and technology workers by 2018. At the same time, we have set the caps on high-skill visas so low that, for some countries, an entire year’s quota has been filled in an hour.”— Do Mittens' Advisors Know Anything About Immigration Law? | Blog Posts

“An economic analysis has found that U.S. companies are saving hundreds of thousands of dollars in payroll costs for every H‑1B worker they hire... employers pay H‑1B workers roughly 16 percent less than comparable U.S. workers... firms save almost $100,000 over the six-year employment period.”— Donald Trump's H-1B visa moves would be reversed under new proposal

“Der Skandal um die Polizeiakademie Berlin hat bundesweit für Aufsehen gesorgt: Ausbilder klagten über Gewalt und Chaos, vermuteten eine Unterwanderung des öffentlichen Diensts durch kriminelle Clans.”— 274.441 Beamte: Zahl der Polizisten erreicht neuen Höchststand - WELT

“Skandale, Überstunden, Ausrüstungsmängel: Mit einem Pakt für den Rechtsstaat wollen die Jamaika-Innenexperten die Missstände bei der Polizei bekämpfen. Dabei ist die Lage gar nicht so schlecht wie gedacht.”— 274.441 Beamte: Zahl der Polizisten erreicht neuen Höchststand - WELT

“Obama’s election was both problematic and promising. It was problematic because it allowed the country to applaud itself for being “post-racial”—that is, Obama’s election reinforced the fiction that America is a color-blind society.”— The United States Needs a Third Reconstruction

“Critics argue the program is used to replace American workers with cheaper foreign labor, while supporters say it helps fill crucial talent gaps.”— Oracle Files Thousands of H-1B Visa Petitions Amid Mass Layoffs - Austin Today

How It Spread

The shortage narrative spread first through a coordinated public-relations effort by the IT industry in the late 1990s. The Information Technology Association of America fed stories to newspapers that depicted frantic employers unable to find programmers, shifting the justification for offshoring from cost savings to a lack of domestic talent. Industry leaders and policymakers then repeated the claim in congressional hearings and executive-branch discussions on immigration, education, and competitiveness. ^[6][2]

Government and academic reports gave the idea institutional legitimacy. The National Science Foundation's 1980s study, the National Academies' "Rising Above the Gathering Storm," and reports from the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology were cited repeatedly in legislation and media coverage. University presidents, STEM employers, and bipartisan coalitions of mayors and business leaders amplified the message through polls and joint letters urging Congress to expand high-skill visas. ^[3][8]

The assumption became an article of faith among journalists, academics, and politicians even as wage data accumulated on the other side. Vivek Wadhwa carried the message in congressional testimony. Microsoft issued its "National Talent Strategy" report. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce and allied groups lobbied for bills that would increase both temporary and permanent STEM admissions. The narrative survived in policy discussions long after several independent analyses from the Economic Policy Institute, RAND, the Urban Institute, and Georgetown University found no evidence of a general shortage. ^[9][10][11]

Official White House fact sheets on trucking shortages and public statements by figures such as Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago kept related supply-gap language alive in adjacent sectors. Media outlets continued to run stories based on employer complaints rather than labor-market data, allowing the core assumption to persist in public discourse despite the growing body of contrary evidence. ^[17][19]

▶ Supporting Quotes (30)

“Today, most policymakers and industry leaders are united in their belief that the United States faces a high-tech talent crisis. The belief has become a central theme in discussions in Congress and the Executive Branch on immigration bills”— What Shortages? The Real Evidence About the STEM Workforce

“Numerous reports detail the growing concern of policymakers and industry leaders regarding a shortage in the STEM workforce believed necessary to sustain the U.S. innovation enterprise, global competitiveness, and national security.”— STEM crisis or STEM surplus? Yes and yes

“The decisions we make on immigration will either facilitate this rebound or trip up the entrepreneurs who are working to make it happen. [...] In my book The Immigrant Exodus, I prescribed seven fixes to stem the tide and to attract the world’s best and brightest to America:”— Testimony of Vivek Wadhwa

“the computer industry's claims of a desperate software labor shortage, etc.”— Debunking the Myth of a Desperate Software Labor Shortage

“As a near term solution to fill the perceived STEM shortage, University Presidents, STEM employers, STEM workers, and others have called on Congress to reform US immigration laws to recruit and retain high-skilled foreign-born STEM workers.”— Help Wanted: The Role of Foreign Workers in the innovation Economy

“members of Congress have taken up the call for reform. Both Democrats and Republicans from the US Senate and the US House of Representatives have introduced bills to provide green cards to foreign advanced degree graduates in STEM from US universities. Polls have shown broad bipartisan support for these bills across political, ideological, racial, and ethnic lines.”— Help Wanted: The Role of Foreign Workers in the innovation Economy

“The myth of the STEM labor shortage soon became engrained in the American imagination.”— Will America lose its technological edge without H1-B workers?

“The projected ten-year employment changes from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) biennial Employment Projections (EP) report ... come with serious caveats and limitations. ... including by the National Science Board and even in the text of proposed legislation”— Is There Really a STEM Workforce Shortage?

“numerous reports, analyses, books, and news articles have carefully examined demand and supply in the STEM workforce and labor markets over the decades and found no widespread or lasting shortages, perceptions of such shortages endure.”— Is There Really a STEM Workforce Shortage?

“The recent Microsoft study that found current and future shortages of workers in computer-related occupations and projected shortages in the broader science, technology, engineering and math occupations in the U.S., “A National Talent Strategy,” is flawed, a new EPI report finds.”— No evidence of worker shortage in STEM fields, new EPI study finds

“At the behest of employers, the Gang of Eight’s Immigration bill that passed the Senate in 2013 (S.744) included very large increases in the number of both temporary and permanent STEM workers allowed into the country.”— Is There a STEM Worker Shortage? A look at employment and wages in science, technology, engineering, and math

“After looking at the evidence from the EPI study, PBS entitled its story on the report, “The Bogus High-Tech Worker Shortage: How Guest Workers Lower US Wages”.”— Is There a STEM Worker Shortage? A look at employment and wages in science, technology, engineering, and math

“Tese projected demand numbers are already unmatched with supply in terms of new degree production... Despite this caution, policy documents ofen use the projections to forecast such shortages, including legislation introduced by the ranking member of the House Science Committee in 2020.”— 31–35 Hira Is There Really a STEM Workforce Shortage Summer 2022

“So even though numerous reports, analyses, books, and news articles have carefully examined demand and supply in the STEM workforce and labor markets over the decades and found no widespread or lasting shortages, perceptions of such shortages endure.”— 31–35 Hira Is There Really a STEM Workforce Shortage Summer 2022

“Trucking moves 72 percent of goods in America and is a lynchpin in our goods movement supply chain... The result is a modern goods movement system that boosts American competitiveness and cuts families’ costs.”— FACT SHEET: The Biden Administration’s Unprecedented Actions to Expand and Improve Trucking Jobs | The White House

“The Administration is taking action, and now we are asking industry, labor, and all levels of government to partner with us to address these trucking workforce challenges”— FACT SHEET: The Biden-Harris Administration Trucking Action Plan to Strengthen America's Trucking Workforce

“US President-elect Donald Trump on Tuesday stated that he has not changed his stance on H-1B visas, stressing the need for skilled workers in the nation. He made these remarks at his Mar-a-Lago resort on New Year's Eve.”— 'We need smart people in our country': Trump says he hasn't changed his mind on H1B visas

“Vague calls for a “national conversation” or emotive spectacles from celebrities obscure the problem and solution.”— The Separation

“Grow Our Economy By Growing Legal Immigration”— Do Mittens' Advisors Know Anything About Immigration Law? | Blog Posts

“Representative Bonnie Watson Coleman, a New Jersey Democrat, introduced the measure. Known as the Welcoming International Success Act (WISA Act), the legislation would nullify a September 2025 proclamation Trump signed.”— Donald Trump's H-1B visa moves would be reversed under new proposal

“Eine Debatte, die vermutlich auch nicht an den Innenexperten der Jamaika-Experten vorbeigegangen ist.”— 274.441 Beamte: Zahl der Polizisten erreicht neuen Höchststand - WELT

“„Wir wollen die bestmögliche Sicherheit für unser Land und bürgerliche Freiheitsrechte in eine neue Balance bringen“, nannten CDU, CSU, FDP und Grüne als Leitziel.”— 274.441 Beamte: Zahl der Polizisten erreicht neuen Höchststand - WELT

“Because racism stopped rearing its ugliest faces... white Americans could psychologically and legally detach themselves from the nation’s racist underpinnings.”— The United States Needs a Third Reconstruction

“The most direct indicator of labor shortages is wage growth. If there were a shortage, wages and benefits would be rising rapidly, but this is simply not the case”— The Myth of the STEM Shortage, In Detail

“compensation for STEM workers was 7.1 percent lower in 2023 than in 2019 before the pandemic, with wages down 7.6 percent”— STEM Workforce Shortages Are a Myth

“The H-1B visa program allows companies to temporarily employ foreign workers with specialized skills, often in the tech industry. Critics argue the program is used to replace American workers with cheaper foreign labor, while supporters say it helps fill crucial talent gaps.”— Oracle Files Thousands of H-1B Visa Petitions Amid Mass Layoffs - Austin Today

Resulting Policies

The H-1B visa program was expanded on the premise that the United States faced a massive shortage of STEM workers. Congress raised the annual quota in 1998 after intense lobbying by the computer industry, and later bills proposed automatic green cards for foreign graduates with advanced U.S. STEM degrees. By 2020 the program imported 71,000 new foreign guest workers for computer occupations alone, a number that exceeded the Bureau of Labor Statistics' projected annual demand. The visas tied workers to specific employers, a feature supporters described as necessary to attract talent but critics said enabled lower wages. ^[1][6][5][9]

Education policy followed the same logic. Lawmakers called for improvements in K-12 science and math instruction and for making higher education more attractive in STEM fields. The National Academies and the National Science Foundation reports were cited as justification for these initiatives even after data showed the nation was already graduating more STEM students than were finding STEM jobs. ^[3][2]

Bipartisan immigration legislation carried the assumption forward. The 2013 Senate bill S.744 included large increases in both temporary and permanent STEM admissions at the behest of employers. Similar provisions appeared in House bills and in proposals from both Democratic and Republican administrations. The Gang of Eight plan and later efforts under the Biden administration to streamline H-1B processing rested on the same set of projections about unmet demand. ^[11][19]

Parallel policies appeared in other sectors. The Biden administration's Trucking Action Plan allocated $57 million to states for commercial driver's license processing, launched a 90-day apprenticeship challenge, and created task forces on pay and working conditions. These measures were justified by claims of a driver shortage that echoed the STEM debate, leading to more than 876,000 new CDLs issued since January 2021. ^[17][18]

▶ Supporting Quotes (25)

“A key justification for the H-1B visa program is that the US faces a STEM labor shortage.”— Will America lose its technological edge without H1-B workers?

“This enduring perception of a crisis of supply might logically lead to some obvious questions... on immigration bills (and attending policies on bringing in high-skill guest workers), on education”— What Shortages? The Real Evidence About the STEM Workforce

“The report highlighted troubling issues in a number of areas: low STEM retention rates, a relative decline in the number of U.S. citizens enrolled in science and engineering graduate school, and lower percentages of STEM graduates than those of other developed countries. These sentiments were echoed in a 2012 report by the U.S. Congress Joint Economic Committee”— STEM crisis or STEM surplus? Yes and yes

“as in 2020 when employers imported 71,000 new foreign guest workers on H-1B visas for computer occupations, outpacing the predicted annual demand.”— Is There Really a STEM Workforce Shortage?

“The hidden agenda of the ITAA public relations campaign turned out to be to leverage Congress to increase the yearly quota of H-1B work visas, under which employers were importing tens of thousands of programmers to the U.S. each year. The campaign succeeded, with President Clinton signing the increase into law in October 1998.”— Debunking the Myth of a Desperate Software Labor Shortage

“Materials on the H-1B work visa issue, the computer industry's claims of a desperate software labor shortage”— Debunking the Myth of a Desperate Software Labor Shortage

“Both Democrats and Republicans from the US Senate and the US House of Representatives have introduced bills to provide green cards to foreign advanced degree graduates in STEM from US universities.”— Help Wanted: The Role of Foreign Workers in the innovation Economy

“A key justification for the H-1B visa program is that the US faces a STEM labor shortage.”— Will America lose its technological edge without H1-B workers?

“The ACS shows that the foreign-born now accounted for 29% of all STEM workers in 2022, roughly double the foreign-born share of the total U.S. population. Since 2010, the total number of foreign STEM workers has doubled.”— New data show no STEM worker shortage

“Finally, supply may come from outside the US pipeline, as in 2020 when employers imported 71,000 new foreign guest workers on H-1B visas for computer occupations, outpacing the predicted annual demand.”— Is There Really a STEM Workforce Shortage?

“increasing the number of H-1B visas now will exacerbate STEM unemployment rates, which are already higher than they would be if the labor market were at full employment, and suppress wages in STEM fields.”— No evidence of worker shortage in STEM fields, new EPI study finds

“In the House of Representatives, a number of bills have been introduced designed to increase the number of both temporary and permanent STEM workers allowed into the country.”— Is There a STEM Worker Shortage? A look at employment and wages in science, technology, engineering, and math

“the Gang of Eight’s Immigration bill that passed the Senate in 2013 (S.744) included very large increases in the number of both temporary and permanent STEM workers allowed into the country.”— Is There a STEM Worker Shortage? A look at employment and wages in science, technology, engineering, and math

“DOT announced over $57 million in funding available to help states expedite CDLs, coordinated waivers, sent all 50 states a toolkit detailing specific actions to expedite licensing and worked hand-in-hand with states to address challenges. This resulted in a 112 percent increase in CDL processing in January and February 2022 compared to January and February 2021. States have issued more than 876,000 CDLs since January 2021.”— FACT SHEET: The Biden Administration’s Unprecedented Actions to Expand and Improve Trucking Jobs | The White House

“Over 100 employers including Domino’s, Frito-Lay, and UPS launched Registered Apprenticeship programs in 90 days as DOL cut the amount of time it takes to a launch a program from months to as little as 48 hours. This could result in more than 10,000 additional apprentices.”— FACT SHEET: The Biden Administration’s Unprecedented Actions to Expand and Improve Trucking Jobs | The White House

“DOT launched the Safe Driver Apprenticeship Pilot, established through the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law... The Administration launched the new Driving Good Jobs initiative between DOL and DOT... Truck Leasing Task Force... Women of Trucking Advisory Board.”— FACT SHEET: The Biden Administration’s Unprecedented Actions to Expand and Improve Trucking Jobs | The White House

“The Bipartisan Infrastructure Law creates a pathway to address these challenges in the long-term.”— FACT SHEET: The Biden-Harris Administration Trucking Action Plan to Strengthen America's Trucking Workforce

“DOT and DOL are announcing today the launch of the joint Driving Good Jobs initiative”— FACT SHEET: The Biden-Harris Administration Trucking Action Plan to Strengthen America's Trucking Workforce

“The Biden administration recently announced plans to streamline the application process and address potential misuse by companies.”— 'We need smart people in our country': Trump says he hasn't changed his mind on H1B visas

“At times their conflicts were bitter. But even with the Executive and the House split, the federal government made significant progress... Today... Policy differences between the Trump Administration and the Republican Party prior to his election exceed the differences between Reagan’s and O’Neill’s parties.”— The Separation

“Mitt Romney will ask Congress to raise the caps on visas for highly skilled immigrants. •Mitt Romney will work with Congress to raise the country caps. •America should keep the best and the brightest here in the United States. Every foreign student who obtains an advanced degree in math, science, or engineering at a U.S. university should be granted permanent residency.”— Do Mittens' Advisors Know Anything About Immigration Law? | Blog Posts

“On March 2, the Florida Board of Governors approved a one-year ban on hiring new faculty and staff at the state's 12 public universities through the H-1B visa program. The pause, which took effect immediately, is set to remain in place through at least January 5, 2027.”— Donald Trump's H-1B visa moves would be reversed under new proposal

“Es sollten „so schnell wie möglich zusätzliche Stellen für die polizeilichen Sicherheitsbehörden von Bund und Ländern sowie für das Bundesamt für Sicherheit in der Informationstechnik (BSI)“ geschaffen werden. Dabei wurde eine Zahl von 7500 zusätzlichen Stellen genannt.”— 274.441 Beamte: Zahl der Polizisten erreicht neuen Höchststand - WELT

“Johnson’s War on Poverty morphed into Nixon’s War on Drugs. Federal programs were defunded and disbanded... In the 1978 Bakke case, for example, the Supreme Court called “‘societal discrimination,’ an amorphous concept of injury””— The United States Needs a Third Reconstruction

“The H-1B visa program allows companies to temporarily employ foreign workers with specialized skills, often in the tech industry.”— Oracle Files Thousands of H-1B Visa Petitions Amid Mass Layoffs - Austin Today

Harm Caused

American STEM workers experienced wage suppression and reduced employment opportunities. Studies found the H-1B program lowered wages for natives by as much as 5.1 percent and employment by as much as 10.8 percent in affected occupations. Real wages for engineers, software developers, and computer mathematicians stagnated or declined between 2016 and 2021 while management occupations pulled ahead. ^[1][5][11]

Domestic graduates faced underemployment on a large scale. Census data showed 5.4 million people with science degrees, 1.6 million with technology degrees, 3.7 million with engineering degrees, and 825,000 with mathematics degrees were not working in STEM jobs. Seventy-four percent of STEM bachelor's holders worked outside STEM occupations. Thirty-two percent of computer science graduates who left the field cited a lack of available jobs. ^[3][9][11]

Companies cited the shortage while conducting large layoffs. HP shed 120,000 STEM workers over a decade, IBM cut its U.S. workforce by 30 percent while quadrupling offshore staff, and GE moved its X-ray headquarters overseas. Forty states introduced more than 200 anti-offshoring bills in 2004 amid the job losses. U.S. programmers reported age discrimination beginning at 35 and short career spans. ^[2][6]

Foreign workers on H-1B visas often faced their own difficulties. Payroll audits found they were paid less than domestic counterparts. The visas tied them to a single employer, creating what some described as indentureship-like conditions that restricted mobility. For every two visas won in the lottery, research indicated three other workers were displaced overall. ^[1][9]

▶ Supporting Quotes (29)

“A 2017 study on the H-1B program also yielded mixed results. Although the program lowered prices and made firms in the tech sector more profitable, it also lowered wages and unemployment for domestic workers. American computer scientists would have earned up to 5.1% more and would have enjoyed up to 10.8% higher employment.”— Will America lose its technological edge without H1-B workers?

“In September 2012, Hewlett Packard announced that it planned to lay off 15,000 workers by the year’s end, reaching a total of 120,000 layoffs over the past decade... IBM, for example has reduced its U.S. workforce by 30% and now has four times more offshore than domestic employees.”— What Shortages? The Real Evidence About the STEM Workforce

“In the course of a single year, 2004, the legislatures in 40 states introduced a total of more than 200 bills restricting offshoring”— What Shortages? The Real Evidence About the STEM Workforce

“In 2014, the U.S. Census Bureau reported that 74 percent of those who have a bachelor’s degree in a STEM major are not employed in STEM occupations. Unemployment rates within STEM fields…are often higher than they’ve been in years —a sign that there is a shortage of jobs, not workers.”— STEM crisis or STEM surplus? Yes and yes

“Looking at the STEM labor market, Salzman and colleagues concluded that, for every two students graduating with a U.S. STEM degree, only one is employed in STEM and that 32 percent of computer science graduates not employed in information technology attributed their situation to a lack of available jobs.”— STEM crisis or STEM surplus? Yes and yes

“real wages for computer and mathematical occupations declined by 0.4% over the five-year period... Real wages declined for all types of engineers as well as for several other STEM occupations, including software developers”— Is There Really a STEM Workforce Shortage?

“offshoring has drained millions of technology jobs from US demand... This persistent misunderstanding has limited policy choices and stymied serious policy discussions.”— Is There Really a STEM Workforce Shortage?

“Rampant Age Discrimination—at Age 35”— Debunking the Myth of a Desperate Software Labor Shortage

“A study by Thomas Bourveau and colleagues, which analysed payroll data from Deloitte, a “Big Four” accounting firm, found that H-1B visa holders are indeed paid less than their domestic counterparts.”— Will America lose its technological edge without H1-B workers?

“For every two H-1B visas the firms won, three other workers were crowded out... ACS data indicate that in 2022, there were 5.4 million working-age people with a science degree not working in any STEM job; among technology degree holders, it was 1.6 million; for engineering, it was 3.7 million; and it was 825,000 in math.”— New data show no STEM worker shortage

“real wage growth was minimal or negative: real wages for computer and mathematical occupations declined by 0.4% over the five-year period. ... Real wages declined for all types of engineers as well as ... software developers,”— Is There Really a STEM Workforce Shortage?

“But even in 2020, the number of bachelor’s degrees conferred in computer science alone was 97,047—40,147 more than the implied annual demand from the BLS projections. Tis mismatch is even more pronounced for engineering, where the number of degrees produced in a single academic year (148,120 in 2019–2020) exceeds not just the projected average annual growth, but the entire ten-year projected job growth from 2020 to 2030 (127,700).”— Is There Really a STEM Workforce Shortage?

“When there are more than 141,000 unemployed workers in computer occupations who are actively looking for work, adding more STEM workers to the job pool than visa programs currently allow is exactly what we should not do, as it would keep unemployment rates high and prevent wage growth.”— No evidence of worker shortage in STEM fields, new EPI study finds

“Real hourly wages (adjusted for inflation) grew on average just 0.7 percent a year from 2000 to 2012 for STEM workers, and annual wages grew even less — 0.4 percent a year.”— Is There a STEM Worker Shortage? A look at employment and wages in science, technology, engineering, and math

“An additional 1.2 million natives with STEM degrees are not working — unemployed or out of the labor force in 2012. There are more than five million native-born Americans with STEM undergraduate degrees working in non-STEM occupations.”— Is There a STEM Worker Shortage? A look at employment and wages in science, technology, engineering, and math

“Tis persistent misunderstanding has limited policy choices and stymied serious policy discussions.”— 31–35 Hira Is There Really a STEM Workforce Shortage Summer 2022

“Others, including students and workers, rarely have their interests formally represented in these discussions.”— 31–35 Hira Is There Really a STEM Workforce Shortage Summer 2022

“These financial burdens cause many to leave the profession... Trucking employment now exceeds its pre-pandemic level by 35,000 and is higher than it was before it began to decline in 2019.”— FACT SHEET: The Biden Administration’s Unprecedented Actions to Expand and Improve Trucking Jobs | The White House

“curbing the proliferation of low-quality training that increases the supply of less qualified drivers who end up in debt or being exploited”— FACT SHEET: The Biden-Harris Administration Trucking Action Plan to Strengthen America's Trucking Workforce

“That means about 40 percent of their capacity is not being used.”— FACT SHEET: The Biden-Harris Administration Trucking Action Plan to Strengthen America's Trucking Workforce

““His support for H1B visas might seem at odds with the broader 'America First' stance that resonates with much of his MAGA base," Agranoff said. "Many within that movement view these visas as competing with American workers for jobs, especially in tech sectors."”— 'We need smart people in our country': Trump says he hasn't changed his mind on H1B visas

“Decades of spendthrift depletion of stockpiled institutional stability mislead us... A recent study found levels of contempt between Republicans and Democrats similar to that between Israelis and Palestinians... In decades observing the House and Senate, I have never seen today’s pettiness, enmity, and dysfunction.”— The Separation

“firms save almost $100,000 over the six-year employment period permitted under the visa.”— Donald Trump's H-1B visa moves would be reversed under new proposal

“Nicht in allen Ländern stieg die Zahl der Polizisten seit dem Tief vor einem Jahrzehnt. So sanken die Zahlen deutlich (Minus von mehr als 500) in Brandenburg, Sachsen, Sachsen-Anhalt und Thüringen.”— 274.441 Beamte: Zahl der Polizisten erreicht neuen Höchststand - WELT

“racial inequality soared... The “tough on crime” era has left untold hundreds of thousands of Black Americans wasting away in prisons; the bungled response to Hurricane Katrina... the Great Recession made an already ballooning racial-wealth gap—one that matches 1968 levels—even more persistent... Black Americans have unequal access to health care and housing, while being overrepresented in low-paid, “essential” employment—factors that contribute to their suffering from the virus disproportionately.”— The United States Needs a Third Reconstruction

“For every two students graduating with a U.S. STEM degree, only one is employed in STEM”— STEM crisis or STEM surplus? Yes and yes

“Federal data shows the tech giant filed for over 3,000 foreign worker visas as it cuts thousands of American jobs.”— Oracle Files Thousands of H-1B Visa Petitions Amid Mass Layoffs - Austin Today

Downfall

Challenges to the assumption began appearing in academic and government research as early as 1959. Economists Kenneth J. Arrow and William M. Capron published an article noting the remarkable lack of direct evidence for the repeated shortage complaints. Their paper received little immediate attention but established a skeptical tradition that later researchers would cite. ^[5][12]

A series of independent reports accumulated in the 2000s. The RAND Corporation in 2004 and the Urban Institute in 2007 found no evidence of general shortages. The Economic Policy Institute issued analyses showing the nation graduated more than twice as many STEM students each year as found jobs in STEM fields. Hal Salzman and colleagues emphasized the lack of wage growth as the clearest market signal. ^[2][11]

Norman Matloff's detailed papers and congressional testimony, combined with a Department of Labor audit, brought the critique into the public record. His work showed human-resources departments were flooded with resumes yet rejected most experienced programmers for lacking narrow new skills. Computer-science enrollments had exploded, contradicting claims of desperate scarcity. ^[6]

Later empirical studies added quantitative weight. Kirk Doran and coauthors used the H-1B lottery as a natural experiment and found that firms winning visas employed fewer workers overall and showed little innovation gain. The 2017 National Academies study called the design "particularly clean." Bureau of Labor Statistics data revealed that inflation-adjusted STEM hourly compensation rose only 2.3 percent from 2008 to 2023 and fell 7.1 percent from 2019 to 2023. ^[9][5]

By the 2020s the assumption faced growing but still not mainstream skepticism. Wage stagnation, persistent underemployment of domestic graduates, and the United States' continued leadership in global innovation indexes led an influential minority of labor economists and policy analysts to question whether a general shortage existed. Some states began restricting public-university hiring of H-1B workers. Large tech firms continued to file thousands of H-1B petitions even while announcing layoffs, further complicating the narrative. ^[22][28][1]

▶ Supporting Quotes (21)

“Thanks to the growing supply of STEM workers... there has been no upward trend in their wage compensation since the early 2000s... Research indicates that the academic sector does have a surplus of STEM professionals... America’s status as a global innovation leader is secure.”— Will America lose its technological edge without H1-B workers?

“According to its analysis of the engineering workforce, the nation is currently graduating about 25,000 more engineers every year than find work in that field... Examples of such reports include Into the Eye of the Storm: Assessing the Evidence on Science and Engineering Education, Quality, and Workforce Demand, published by the Urban Institute in 2007, and Will the Scientific and Technology Workforce Meet the Requirements of the Federal Government? by RAND in 2004.”— What Shortages? The Real Evidence About the STEM Workforce

“A comprehensive literature review, in conjunction with employment statistics, newspaper articles, and our own interviews with company recruiters, reveals a significant heterogeneity in the STEM labor market: the academic sector is generally oversupplied, while the government sector and private industry have shortages in specific areas.”— STEM crisis or STEM surplus? Yes and yes

““in view of all the discussion of the ‘shortage’ problem, it is remarkable how little direct evidence is available.” Fifty-five years later, in 2014, demographer Michael S. Teitelbaum wrote: “The alarms about widespread shortages or shortfalls in the number of US scientists and engineers are quite inconsistent with nearly all available evidence.””— Is There Really a STEM Workforce Shortage?

“Just call any ﬁrm which hires programmers—a large ﬁrm, a small one, new, old, any location—and talk to the HR Department. Ask them if it is true that they reject the vast majority of their programming applicants without even an interview. After they conﬁrm this, ask them why they do this, and they will say that the vast majority of the applicants don’t have some new software skill set the employer wants, even though the applicants have years of programming experience.”— Debunking the Myth of a Desperate Software Labor Shortage

“Click here for many other materials related to the "shortage" claims---studies, congressional testimonies, the Dept. of Labor audit of the H-1B work visa program”— Debunking the Myth of a Desperate Software Labor Shortage

“Thanks to the growing supply of STEM workers, fuelled in large part by immigration, there has been no upward trend in their wage compensation since the early 2000s”— Will America lose its technological edge without H1-B workers?

“With AI poised to replace the “mid-level engineer” as soon as 2025, according to the Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, it is unclear why the US needs even more such workers than it already has.”— Will America lose its technological edge without H1-B workers?

“From 2008 to 2023, the ECEC data showed that inflation-adjusted hourly compensation (wages and benefits combined) for STEM workers in the U.S. increased just 2.3% over 15 years... It was 7.1% lower in 2023 than in 2019 before COVID-19”— New data show no STEM worker shortage

“A 2017 National Academies study on immigration praised a draft version of this research, observing that its method is “particularly clean” due to the use of a natural experiment.”— New data show no STEM worker shortage

“These wage data make it challenging to argue there are serious STEM worker shortages, a conclusion reinforced by other price signals; for example, companies are able to fill an increasing share of their technology workforce as lower paid contractors.”— Is There Really a STEM Workforce Shortage?

“BLS clearly warns to the contrary, saying that its “projections assume a labor market in equilibrium, i.e., one where overall labor supply meets labor demand.””— Is There Really a STEM Workforce Shortage?

“He points out that increasing STEM workers in the U.S. is in Microsoft’s interest, as a larger pool of workers would prevent wages in STEM fields from rising.”— No evidence of worker shortage in STEM fields, new EPI study finds

“Using the most common definition of STEM jobs, total STEM employment in 2012 was 5.3 million workers (immigrant and native), but there are 12.1 million STEM degree holders (immigrant and native). Only one-third of native-born Americans with an undergraduate STEM degree holding a job actually work in a STEM occupation.”— Is There a STEM Worker Shortage? A look at employment and wages in science, technology, engineering, and math

“Reports by Georgetown University, the Economic Policy Institute (EPI), the Rand Corporation, the Urban Institute, and the National Research Council have all found no evidence that science, technology, engineering and math (STEM) workers are in short supply. ... A 2013 resume analysis ... found that there was a huge supply of qualified applicants for the vast majority of jobs that employers were seeking to fill with foreign workers.”— Is There a STEM Worker Shortage? A look at employment and wages in science, technology, engineering, and math

“BLS clearly warns to the contrary, saying that its “projections assume a labor market in equilibrium, i.e., one where overall labor supply meets labor demand.””— 31–35 Hira Is There Really a STEM Workforce Shortage Summer 2022

“Pew Research Center has a dynamic chart of political polarization from 1994-2017... A 2019 Brookings study was titled “America has two economies—and they are diverging fast.”... With George Floyd’s death, we crossed a Rubicon from incivility to chaos... The lesson from the Kavanaugh confirmation was cautionary.”— The Separation

“The study, conducted by the National Bureau of Economic Research, examined more than 340,000 H‑1B hires at for-profit companies between 2021 and 2024 and found that employers pay H‑1B workers roughly 16 percent less than comparable U.S. workers.”— Donald Trump's H-1B visa moves would be reversed under new proposal

“Die Zahl der Polizisten in Deutschland befindet sich derweil bereits auf dem höchsten Stand seit mindestens zwei Jahrzehnten. Wie aus Zahlen aus Sicherheitskreisen hervorgeht, lag die bundesweite Polizeistärke im vergangenen Jahr bei 274.441 Stellen.”— 274.441 Beamte: Zahl der Polizisten erreicht neuen Höchststand - WELT

“America’s sharp racial fault lines have proved an all-too-convenient path for the disease to follow... as the virus rages and historic protests continue in the wake of George Floyd’s slaying”— The United States Needs a Third Reconstruction

“Oracle's visa filings amid mass layoffs raise questions about the company's motivations and the broader debate over the H-1B program's impact on the American workforce.”— Oracle Files Thousands of H-1B Visa Petitions Amid Mass Layoffs - Austin Today

Sources

[1]
Will America lose its technological edge without H1-B workers?opinion
Lipton Matthews · Aporia Magazine · 2025-01-15
[2]
What Shortages? The Real Evidence About the STEM Workforcereputable_journalism
Hal Salzman · Issues in Science and Technology · 2013-09-01
[3]
STEM crisis or STEM surplus? Yes and yesreputable_journalism
Yi Xue, Richard C. Larson · Mon Labor Rev · 2015-05-26
[4]
Testimony of Vivek Wadhwaprimary_source
Vivek Wadhwa · U.S. House of Representatives Judiciary Committee · 2013-02-05
[5]
Is There Really a STEM Workforce Shortage?reputable_journalism
Ron Hira · Issues in Science and Technology
[6]
Debunking the Myth of a Desperate Software Labor Shortageprimary_source
Dr. Norman Matloff · Testimony to the U.S. House Judiciary Committee Subcommittee on Immigration · 1998-04-21
[8]
Help Wanted: The Role of Foreign Workers in the innovation Economyopinion
Information Technology Industry Council, Partnership for a New American Economy, U.S. Chamber of Commerce · 2013
[9]
New data show no STEM worker shortagereputable_journalism
Steven A. Camarota · Washington Examiner · 2024-09-17
[10]
No evidence of worker shortage in STEM fields, new EPI study findsreputable_journalism
Phoebe Silag or Donte Donald · Economic Policy Institute (EPI) · 2012-11-19
[11]
Is There a STEM Worker Shortage? A look at employment and wages in science, technology, engineering, and mathprimary_source
Steven A. Camarota and Karen Zeigler · Center for Immigration Studies · May 2014
[12]
31–35 Hira Is There Really a STEM Workforce Shortage Summer 2022reputable_journalism
Ron Hira · Issues in Science and Technology · Summer 2022
[17]
FACT SHEET: The Biden Administration’s Unprecedented Actions to Expand and Improve Trucking Jobs | The White Houseprimary_source
The White House · The White House · 2022-04-04
[18]
FACT SHEET: The Biden-Harris Administration Trucking Action Plan to Strengthen America's Trucking Workforceprimary_source
Joseph R. Biden, Jr. · The American Presidency Project · 2021-12-16
[19]
'We need smart people in our country': Trump says he hasn't changed his mind on H1B visasreputable_journalism
TOI World Desk · Times of India · 2025-01-01
[20]
The Separationopinion
Rebecca · American Mind · 2020-11-30
[21]
Do Mittens' Advisors Know Anything About Immigration Law? | Blog Postsopinion
VDARE
[22]
Donald Trump's H-1B visa moves would be reversed under new proposalreputable_journalism
Billal Rahman · Newsweek · 2026-03-15
[23]
274.441 Beamte: Zahl der Polizisten erreicht neuen Höchststand - WELTreputable_journalism
WELT
[24]
The United States Needs a Third Reconstructionreputable_journalism
The Atlantic · 2020-07
[25]
STEM crisis or STEM surplus? Yes and yesprimary_source
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · 2015-01-01
[26]
The Myth of the STEM Shortage, In Detailreputable_journalism
Science Magazine · 2024-01-01
[27]
STEM Workforce Shortages Are a Mythopinion
Ron Hira · 2024-01-01
[28]
Oracle Files Thousands of H-1B Visa Petitions Amid Mass Layoffs - Austin Todayreputable_journalism
Austin Today · 2026-04-03

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ID: FA-20260224-b5d8c0d8 · Created: 2026-02-24T23:10:04.679072 · Schema v3