Anti-Police Activism Cuts Homicides

False Assumption: Reducing police presence through anti-police activism will lower violence and homicide rates in Black communities.

Summaries Written by FARAgent (AI) on February 09, 2026 · Pending Verification

After Ferguson in 2014, and even more after George Floyd in 2020, a great many officials, activists, and journalists treated “overpolicing” as the central danger in Black neighborhoods. “Defund the police,” “reimagine public safety,” and “community-led safety” sounded plausible because there was a real grievance underneath them: abusive stops, ugly videos, low trust, and a long history of police treating poor black areas as occupied territory rather than as places to protect. Reasonable people could look at that record and conclude that fewer aggressive encounters, fewer arrests for low-level disorder, and less reliance on armed officers might reduce conflict and save lives. The belief had a moral logic and a political logic, and for a while it became elite common sense.

Then the practical test arrived. In Baltimore after Freddie Gray, in Chicago after the Laquan McDonald uproar, and across many cities after the Floyd riots, police pulled back, departments lost manpower, proactive policing fell, and homicide clearance rates stayed poor or worsened. The people left to live with the result were mostly the residents whom reformers said they were helping. Murders surged, shootings rose, and black communities bore much of the toll. Growing evidence suggests the old assumption missed a hard fact that critics from Martin Luther King Jr. to urbanists studying the “code of the street” had stressed in different ways: when public order is weak and killers expect not to be caught, the vacuum is not filled by harmony.

The debate is not over. Many reformers still argue that the real causes were poverty, guns, COVID disruption, or long-running institutional failures rather than anti-police politics itself. But an influential minority of researchers and analysts now argue that the post-Ferguson and post-2020 retreat from policing was not a humane correction, it was a dangerous overcorrection, especially where violence was already concentrated. The current dispute is less about whether bad policing exists, nobody serious denies that, than about whether cutting police presence in high-crime black neighborhoods was ever likely to make those neighborhoods safer.

Status: A small but growing and influential group of experts think this was false

People Involved

Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. warned in 1957 sermons about the moral failings inside African American communities, denouncing laziness, promiscuity, criminality, drunkenness, slovenliness, ignorance, violence, and poor habits as barriers to progress. As a Baptist preacher and civil rights leader he spoke from pulpits across the South, urging self-examination rather than external blame alone. His words were later memory-holed by contemporary academe, which preferred cleaner narratives of systemic oppression. The selective editing helped sustain the assumption that external forces like policing were the sole drivers of violence. ^[1]
Elijah Anderson, an urban anthropologist who studied inner-city life for decades, described how the code of the streets emerges from alienation and lack of faith in police protection. His fieldwork in Philadelphia and other cities showed residents turning to bravado and self-help violence because they did not trust authorities to deliver justice. Anderson's observations provided a kernel of truth about legal cynicism that later activists stretched into the claim that reducing police presence would calm communities. Instead his work illustrated why low clearance rates perpetuate cycles of retaliation. ^[1]
Steve Sailer tracked homicide data week by week as an independent journalist and analyst, warning as early as 2015 that the Ferguson Effect was driving murder spikes in cities like Baltimore. He pointed out that rates in Baltimore soon exceeded even the crack-era peaks of the early 1990s, with the racial reckoning producing a nationwide murder spree. Sailer continued publishing on CDC and FBI numbers showing black homicide deaths rising after de-policing and falling only after policing resumed. His persistent data work made him a repeated cassandra whose forecasts aligned with later trends. ^[3][9]
Brandon Scott, Democratic mayor of Baltimore, promoted consent decrees, the Mayor’s Office of Neighborhood Safety and Engagement, and a Comprehensive Violence Reduction Framework built on a public-health model rather than traditional policing. He argued that police alone could not solve gun violence and pushed violence interrupters and community investments as superior alternatives. Scott endorsed non-prosecution of low-level offenses and framed reforms as addressing systemic oppression. Homicides in Baltimore remained stubbornly high throughout his tenure. ^[16]
Carmen Best, Seattle’s first Black female police chief with 28 years on the force, publicly criticized city council budget cuts as punitive and shocking before resigning hours after the vote. She warned that slashing the department by 100 officers and eliminating specialized units would leave the city unsafe. Best’s departure highlighted the institutional damage from anti-police activism that had spread after George Floyd’s death. Her resignation underscored the human cost of policies built on the assumption. ^[25][32]

▶ Supporting Quotes (43)

“In the summer of 1957, a Baptist preacher in the segregated South issued a series of fiery sermons denouncing the laziness, promiscuity, criminality, drunkenness, slovenliness, and ignorance of Negroes. He shouted from the pulpit about the difference between doing a “real job” and doing “a Negro job”. Instead of practicing the intelligent saving habits of white men, “Negroes too often buy what they want and beg for what they need.” He suggested that blacks were “thinking about sex” every time they walked down the street. They were too violent. They didn’t bathe properly. And their music, which was invading homes all over America, ‘plunges men’s minds into degrading and immoral depths’.”— Bravado in the absence of order (3)

“The code of the streets is actually a cultural adaptation to a profound lack of faith in the police and the judicial system. The police are most often seen as representing the dominant white society and not caring to protect inner-city residents.”— Bravado in the absence of order (3)

“America’s ruling class decided that what African Americans needed most was less rule of law.”— Homicides Way Down

“As I reported in 2019:”— The racial reckoning murder spree is over

“Something that almost nobody knows other than my readers is that blacks became, on average, strikingly worse drivers per capita after Ferguson in 2014 unleashed the ironically lethal Black Lives Era.”— CDC Traffic Fatalities: Good News and Bad News

““We have three types of homicide”, I was told by the chief of detectives in a larger southern city. “If a n*gger kills a white man, that’s murder. If a white man kills a n*gger, that’s justifiable homicide. And if a n*gger kills another n*gger, that’s one less n*gger”.”— Bravado in the absence of order (2)

“I certainly could not discover any principled reason for not becoming a criminal, and it is not my poor, God-fearing parents who are to be indicted for the lack but this society.”— Bravado in the absence of order (2)

“In his 1920 pamphlet Crime in the America and the Police, Raymond B. Fosdick reports the following:”— Bravado in the absence of order (2)

““As I may have mentioned once or twice over the past year, the media-declared ‘racial reckoning’ following the death of George Floyd on May 25, 2020, has been getting a lot of blacks murdered by other blacks.””— Steve Sailer: Still noticing after all these years

“While they ostentatiously display their commitment to racial justice by chastising anybody who talks honestly about the causes of racial disparities in the West, he writes incisively about the problems that plague black America.”— Steve Sailer: Still noticing after all these years

“Writing in The Wall Street Journal on 2020’s crime surge in July, the criminologist Peter Moskos said, “Were the stress and economic hardship of the pandemic a factor? Perhaps in some places. But Covid struck hard in Baltimore and Newark, for example, and the murder rate in those cities didn’t increase.”— What the Media Doesn’t Want You To Know About 2020’s Record Murder Spike

“The reason for 2020’s extra deaths, as Bader said, was that, “incarceration rates fell, police manpower shrank, and anti-police protests spread across the nation.””— What the Media Doesn’t Want You To Know About 2020’s Record Murder Spike

“A couple of years ago, Travis Campbell, an economics professor at Southern Oregon University, published a study showing that from 2014 to 2019, Black Lives Matter protests “meaningfully reduced” police homicides. … “Total reported homicides increased by 12.89 percent over the five years following B.L.M. protests, which is consistent with rising overall crime,” he wrote. That increase, he added, amounted to “over 3,000 homicides.””— NYT: Black Lives Matter got 15 times more blacks murdered than it saved

“In the New York Times opinion section, regular columnist Tom Edsall, a public-spirited old-timer, quietly drops some bombshells in a manner intended to bore sensitive subscribers into not noticing that Black Lives Matter has gotten more black lives murdered than saved.”— NYT: Black Lives Matter got 15 times more blacks murdered than it saved

“In a July 2021 article, “Police-Involved Deaths and the Impact on Homicide Rates in the Post-Ferguson Era,” Tyler J. Lane, a senior research fellow at Monash University in Australia, found patterns similar to those in the Campbell paper. On the basis of crime data from 44 major cities from 2011 to 2019, Lane found a 26.1 percent increase in civilian homicides, suggesting that “protested police-involved deaths led to an increase in homicides and other violence due to the distrust fomented within the very communities police are meant to protect.””— NYT: Black Lives Matter got 15 times more blacks murdered than it saved

“Thomas Hargrove, the founder of the nonprofit Murder Accountability Project, which tracks unsolved homicides, made a detailed argument for a strong link between the protests, depolicing and the increase in homicides in an August 2022 essay, “Murder and the Legacy of the Police Killing of George Floyd”: “What is beyond debate is that homicides increased dramatically in 2020. Murders surged nearly 30 percent, the largest one-year increase on record.””— NYT: Black Lives Matter got 15 times more blacks murdered than it saved

“For us here in Baltimore, we know that Freddie Gray’s legacy lives on. His life was lost and cut way too sure for foolishness. But now what he has done is sparked years of reforms and efforts that would have never happened... Baltimore would never have had a police department can consent decree.”— Baltimore Mayor Brandon Scott Breaks Down How Police Reform Can Affect Systemic Oppression

“You can’t just think that you’re going to police your way out of these problems... we’re also going to expand the great work that we have here in Baltimore about safe street violence interrupters where we take people who are used to be involved in shooting people. And now, they’re interceding in that violence.”— Baltimore Mayor Brandon Scott Breaks Down How Police Reform Can Affect Systemic Oppression

“the state’s attorney, Marilyn Mosby, has said she’s already stopped prosecuting certain “low-level offenses” like drug possession and prostitution, for example. Do you agree with that decision? SCOTT: Well, what I’ll say is this, the state’s attorney and I share the opinion that people who have substance abuse, people that are in sex work aren’t inherently criminal.”— Baltimore Mayor Brandon Scott Breaks Down How Police Reform Can Affect Systemic Oppression

“Shanaaz Mathews, who directs the Children's Institute at the University of Cape Town (UCT).”— This 3-Year-Old's Murder Is Part Of South Africa's Alarming 'Epidemic'

“"If you conceal the birth well enough, they'll never be found," says Lorna Martin, a forensic pathologist”— This 3-Year-Old's Murder Is Part Of South Africa's Alarming 'Epidemic'

“leading Democrats – including now-VP Harris – helping bail out violent offenders.”— Democrats Encouraging Violence? | @AmacforAmerica

“Thomas Hargrove is the founder of the “Murder Accountability Project,” which tracks murder data across the country. ... “Having a 54% clearance rate is devastating,” Hargrove said. “It leads to more murder.””— Why experts say nearly half of US murder cases continue to go unsolved

“Stepping into the crisis when he became Corrections Minister in October 2017, Kelvin Davis' immediate job was deciding what to do with the previous Government's plan for a 1500-bed prison at Waikeria.”— Jailhouse drop: Drastic fall in prisoner numbers, but does that make us all safer?

“National Party justice spokesman Paul Goldsmith says gang members are picking up the "mood" of the Government and have become more brazen.”— Jailhouse drop: Drastic fall in prisoner numbers, but does that make us all safer?

““I voted for the Justice in Policing Act, legislation that is a first step in helping save lives and making sure officers who abuse their power are held accountable. We must come together to strengthen our public safety and rebuild trust between our law enforcement and our communities.””— Rep. Cuellar Votes for George Floyd Justice in Policing Act

““Our students are sending us warning shots. Literal warning shots,” said Peter Balas, a principal at Alexandria City High School, in Alexandria Va., at a city council meeting earlier this month.”— Violence in Schools Seems to Be Increasing. Why?

““It makes people feel better rather than solving the challenges, and it potentially further criminalizes children. That is the fear, and I think that’s the fear nationally, too.””— Violence in Schools Seems to Be Increasing. Why?

“"Why on Earth – for the people who've worked so very hard – would we ever consider not having the best of the best and compensating them fairly?" Best said at a press conference about the cuts last week. "I find that absolutely shocking and quite frankly – I think it's punitive and not well thought out. And that's exactly how I feel about it."”— Seattle's first Black female police chief announced her resignation after the city council voted to cut the department's budget and ax dozens of jobs

“Kevin Davis was fired in January by Pugh, saying she had grown "impatient" with his inability to stem the historic pace of killings in the city.”— Baltimore’s police commissioners through the years

“Then-Mayor Sheila Dixon fired Leonard Hamm amid a crime wave in 2007.”— Baltimore’s police commissioners through the years

“Darryl De Sousa resigned after he was charged with three misdemeanor counts of failing to file federal income tax returns.”— Baltimore’s police commissioners through the years

““You can’t really reform a department that is rotten to the root,” she said. “What you can do is rebuild. And so this is our opportunity, you know, as a city, to come together, have the conversation of what public safety looks like, who enforces the most dangerous crimes that place in our community. ... What we are saying is, the current infrastructure that exists as policing in our city should not exist anymore.””— Minneapolis officers quit in wake of George Floyd protests

““(Officers) don’t feel appreciated,” said Mylan Masson, a retired Minneapolis officer and use-of-force expert. “Everybody hates the police right now. I mean everybody.””— Minneapolis officers quit in wake of George Floyd protests

““We are having an impact with the policing that we’re doing,” he said. “I think in terms of our staffing, we’re good. We’ve just got to make sure we’re deploying people properly where we need them.””— Chicago violence, homicides and shootings up in 2015

““The Ferguson effect is insulting to cops as professionals because you’re saying that the police are refusing to do their jobs, and not being as aggressive in doing their jobs in protecting citizens because citizens are exercising their right to protest,” said Lurigio, the Loyola professor.”— Chicago violence, homicides and shootings up in 2015

““We had a lot of shootings that happened in broad daylight in the middle of the day,” Mr. Timpson said. “I think it was just people thinking that, their thought was that it would be easier to get away with it.””— The Numbers Behind Baltimore's Record Year in Homicides

“But after carefully laying out these two possibilities, the report declines to take a position on which one is the more significant contributor to the homicide spikes. And then, in a concluding section on recommendations, it focuses on need for subduing the COVID-19 pandemic and downplays the need to consider whether the anti-police protests—and consequent police pullbacks—have played a major role in the deaths of more than a thousand homicide victims.”— Explaining the Great 2020 Homicide Spike

“"Here in Baltimore with over 90% of our victims being African Americans, we have an incredibly large case load, as you know. …We're not working any harder or less hard on any specific case. We give 100% on all of them”— Crime Without Punishment: Homicide Clearance Rates Are Declining Across The US. Baltimore's Is Down To 42%

“Best resigned in September 2020 after the City Council slashed the department by 100 officers following pressure from Black Lives Matter protests.”— Downtown Seattle so dangerous city staff will have security escorts

“Seattle Mayor Jenny Durkan, who did not seek reelection and is being replaced by moderate Mayor-elect Bruce Harrell, issued an executive order last month offering $25,000 hiring bonuses for 911 dispatchers and police”— Downtown Seattle so dangerous city staff will have security escorts

“The police union head accused Durkan of 'politically betraying' the police force by siding with those who called to defund the department after the death of George Floyd last year.”— Downtown Seattle so dangerous city staff will have security escorts

“I’m pretty interested in the question of which intellectual movements are able to grow and evolve and strengthen, and which stagnate or devolve in various ways. That’s because in the communities I’m most familiar with and tied to, I’ve seen some worrisome, epistemically unhealthy trends emerge.”— The Police-Abolition Zombie Shambles On

Organizations Involved

Black Lives Matter emerged in 2014 after the Ferguson shooting and quickly became the institutional vehicle for anti-police activism across the United States. The organization organized protests that turned into riots in dozens of cities, sent 127 million emails, and drove 1.2 million actions while activists participated in 95 percent of the tracked riots following George Floyd’s death. BLM promoted narratives that reduced policing would lower violence in Black communities and pressured city councils to cut budgets and disband specialized units. Its influence peaked in 2020 before declining, after which homicide numbers began to fall in many cities. ^[2][10]

The New York Times published sympathetic coverage and opinion columns that framed the racial reckoning as necessary and downplayed the homicide costs of de-policing. Its opinion section ran pieces on how BLM protests had reduced police killings without emphasizing the thousands of additional civilian deaths that followed. The paper helped mainstream the assumption by declaring a racial reckoning after George Floyd and by omitting inconvenient data on black-on-black murder spikes. Readers encountered a consistent message that less police presence equaled more safety. ^[12]

Baltimore Police Department operated under a federal consent decree sparked by the Freddie Gray case and saw ten commissioners come and go since 1989 amid repeated homicide crises. The department faced low clearance rates that fell to 30.5 percent during peak years, with Black victim clearances lagging far behind white ones. It denied standing down after riots yet watched proactive enforcement drop following protests. Turnover and demoralization compounded the effects of the assumption that reform meant reduced presence. ^[26][29][31]

Seattle City Council approved budget amendments that cut the police department by $3.5 million, eliminated specialized units, reduced top salaries, and later slashed another $10 million while removing 100 officers. The council acted under pressure from BLM protests and the CHOP occupation, framing the cuts as safe reform that would not increase danger. The moves prompted the resignation of Chief Carmen Best and led to detectives being pulled onto emergency calls. Downtown Seattle became so unsafe that city staff required security escorts. ^[25][32]

▶ Supporting Quotes (36)

“Massive surges in anti-police activism led to police withdrawal, leading to fewer interruptions of confrontations, leading to surges in homicide.”— Bravado in the absence of order (3)

“The political influence of prison unions is a factor in this over-incarceration.”— Bravado in the absence of order (3)

“the emergence of Black Lives Matter at Ferguson in August 2014”— Homicides Way Down

“nobody cares about Black Lives Matter anymore, so black lives are being spared.”— Why Are Black Suicides Up So Much?

“Why did Mr. Kneeland try to flee, and why did he have a gun in the car?”— Why Are Black Suicides Up So Much?

“Before Black Lives Matter, whites usually used to die the most per capita in traffic accidents... after Ferguson in 2014 unleashed the ironically lethal Black Lives Era.”— CDC Traffic Fatalities: Good News and Bad News

“The Asian death rate is up 8% since 2014 (back when Asians and Pacific Islanders were lumped together in CDC mortality stats up through 2017)”— CDC Traffic Fatalities: Good News and Bad News

“The former slave States of the American South, under the Jim Crow system, systematically failed to provide that level of public order in the segregated communities inhabited by former slaves and their descendants. They were certainly not trusted by them to do so.”— Bravado in the absence of order (2)

“But medieval Europe lacked a state with the capacity to impose trusted public order. The contemporary American state, by contrast, lacks the informed willingness to do so within African-American communities.”— Bravado in the absence of order (2)

“the media-declared ‘racial reckoning’ following the death of George Floyd on May 25, 2020”— Steve Sailer: Still noticing after all these years

“Ferguson unleashed the catastrophic Black Lives Matter movement”— FBI: Homicides up over 40% since Ferguson

“The Black Lives Matter organizations, founded and led by Marxists who were recruited and trained by older communists to dismantle American society, organized the protests that sometimes turned into riots. ... BLM activists were involved in 95 percent of the 633 incidents that Princeton’s Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project coded as “riots” for which the identity of the rioter was known.”— What the Media Doesn’t Want You To Know About 2020’s Record Murder Spike

“Except that the Times and the others didn’t see fit to include in their reports the words Black Lives Matter or the organization’s main battle cry of “Defund the Police.””— What the Media Doesn’t Want You To Know About 2020’s Record Murder Spike

“we would never have gotten local of our police department if our Freddie didn’t die. So we know that his name lives on... Maryland before this verdict came back became the first state repeal the law enforcement officers’ bill of rights.”— Baltimore Mayor Brandon Scott Breaks Down How Police Reform Can Affect Systemic Oppression

“According to police figures, each year 800 to 900 children are murdered in South Africa, a nation of 54 million people.”— This 3-Year-Old's Murder Is Part Of South Africa's Alarming 'Epidemic'

“The Children's Institute, UNICEF and the national Department of Social Development... sponsored a two-day conference this week”— This 3-Year-Old's Murder Is Part Of South Africa's Alarming 'Epidemic'

“during 2020 there were race riots in 200 cities, encouraged by Democrat politicians. Democrats pushed police defunding in the name of social justice”— Democrats Encouraging Violence? | @AmacforAmerica

“That data pulled from the FBI and police shows what was once a national clearance rate of more than 80% in 1965, has plummeted to 54%.”— Why experts say nearly half of US murder cases continue to go unsolved

“The Labour Party pledged to cut the prison population by 30 per cent over 15 years when it came into office after the 2017 election when there were 10,400 prisoners.”— Jailhouse drop: Drastic fall in prisoner numbers, but does that make us all safer?

“Corrections has put quite a lot more resources into things such as accommodation, for example, in the last few years.”— Jailhouse drop: Drastic fall in prisoner numbers, but does that make us all safer?

“Today, Congressman Henry Cuellar (TX-28) voted for the George Floyd Justice in Policing Act.”— Rep. Cuellar Votes for George Floyd Justice in Policing Act

“Earlier this summer, Education Week found that a small number of U.S. school districts remove police officers or cut their school-policing budgets in the wake of racial-justice protests in 2020. Some of those communities, like Alexandria, Va., are now beginning to have second thoughts.”— Violence in Schools Seems to Be Increasing. Why?

“All the pretrial maneuvering and finagling of the L.A. city fathers was for one specific purpose: to avoid another insurrection (53 dead)”— Instauration 1995 11 November

“so long as police departments measure success by arrests, that won’t happen more widely.”— Police solve just 2% of all major crimes

“Earlier Monday, the Seattle City Council approved amendments to the current city budget, reducing the police departments $409 million budget by $3.5 million, according to Reuters.”— Seattle's first Black female police chief announced her resignation after the city council voted to cut the department's budget and ax dozens of jobs

“The Baltimore Police Department has had 10 police commissioners since 1989.”— Baltimore’s police commissioners through the years

“A majority of City Council members support dismantling or defunding the department.”— Minneapolis officers quit in wake of George Floyd protests

“Minneapolis Police spokesman John Elder downplayed the departures. “There’s nothing that leads us to believe that at this point the numbers are so great that it’s going to be problematic,” Elder said.”— Minneapolis officers quit in wake of George Floyd protests

“interim Superintendent John Escalante said he plans to fight violence in 2016 by employing some of McCarthy’s past strategies, including a continued focus on arresting people caught with illegal guns and allowing as many as a few hundred officers a day to work on their days off in the 20 most dangerous neighborhoods of the city.”— Chicago violence, homicides and shootings up in 2015

“Others in Baltimore suspected that the police stood down after the unrest associated with Freddie Gray’s death — an assertion the department has categorically denied.”— The Numbers Behind Baltimore's Record Year in Homicides

“The chart below depicts total arrests by the Chicago Police Department. As can be seen, in mid-March the pandemic's onset triggered a sharp decline in arrests. Then, beginning in April, arrests climbed toward pre-pandemic levels. But at the end of May, that return to normalcy was interrupted and arrests plummeted, never to again regain traditional levels.”— Explaining the Great 2020 Homicide Spike

“A CBS News analysis of FBI homicide data shows Baltimore City's average clearance rate from 2015 to 2019 was just 38.7%, hitting a low of 29.7% in 2015, the tumultuous year when Freddie Gray was killed in police custody and arrests plummeted.”— Crime Without Punishment: Homicide Clearance Rates Are Declining Across The US. Baltimore's Is Down To 42%

“News of the walking bus hit the headlines a day after the Seattle City Council announced it was cutting $10 million from the city police department's $400m budget.”— Downtown Seattle so dangerous city staff will have security escorts

“the City Council slashed the department by 100 officers following pressure from Black Lives Matter protests”— Downtown Seattle so dangerous city staff will have security escorts

“the force has since lost 250 more, 100 of which were due to a Covid-19 vaccine mandate”— Downtown Seattle so dangerous city staff will have security escorts

The Foundation

The assumption drew its initial strength from visible high-profile police incidents and long-standing patterns of legal cynicism in some urban neighborhoods. Thoughtful observers could see that aggressive policing sometimes damaged community trust, that clearance rates for Black victims were persistently low, and that historical under-policing in segregated areas had left a legacy of self-help justice. Elijah Anderson’s ethnographic work showed how the code of the streets arises when residents do not believe police will protect them, creating incentives for bravado and preemptive violence. A reasonable person in 2014 could conclude that dialing back confrontational policing might reduce tension without causing a crime wave, especially when pre-Ferguson homicide numbers had been relatively stable. The kernel of truth lay in the real mistrust and in the fact that not every arrest improves long-term safety. ^[1][6]

High-profile deaths like those of Michael Brown and Freddie Gray seemed to confirm that police presence itself provoked violence. Activists and some academics argued that reducing fear of police would allow communities to breathe and that stereotypes of violence were merely racist constructs rather than reflections of real equilibria. Pre-BLM data showing whites with the highest per capita traffic deaths among major groups lent surface plausibility to claims that traffic enforcement was racially motivated rather than a response to actual driving behavior. These observations made the case for de-policing appear data-driven and morally urgent to many informed people at the time. ^[4][5]

Subsequent evidence shifted the picture. CDC and FBI statistics documented homicide increases beginning the week of George Floyd’s death, with national murders rising 30 percent in 2020 and Black victims comprising the majority of the additional deaths. Black traffic fatalities rose 36 percent in the second half of 2020 compared with 9 percent for others, and young Black male traffic death rates increased substantially during the period of reduced enforcement. Multivariate analyses found that counties with higher GOP vote shares experienced lower homicide growth, suggesting that local political cultures supporting policing limited the damage. Growing evidence suggests the assumption was flawed. ^[7][10][12]

Studies that once seemed to support the assumption came under scrutiny. Travis Campbell’s paper claimed Black Lives Matter protests had saved roughly 200 lives from police killings between 2014 and 2019 yet documented over 3,000 additional civilian homicides; he cautioned against direct comparison but the net human cost was hard to ignore. Tyler J. Lane found a 26.1 percent homicide increase in major cities after Ferguson protests linked to eroded trust. The CDC weekly homicide database showed a structural break exactly when protests peaked, not when the pandemic began or when mobility recovered. An influential minority of analysts now argue that the data reveal the opposite of what was promised. ^[11][12]

▶ Supporting Quotes (37)

“Urban anthropologist Elijah Anderson analysed inner city youth attitudes as a fluctuating and overlapping tension between street (bravado) and decent (dignity) outlooks and behaviours, with the power and appeal of street culture coming from: ... the profound sense of alienation from mainstream society and its institutions felt by many poor inner-city black people, particularly the young. The code of the streets is actually a cultural adaptation to a profound lack of faith in the police and the judicial system.”— Bravado in the absence of order (3)

“The ongoing failure to impose sufficient public order—as evidenced by dramatically lower homicide clearance rates within African-American communities—not only allows the highly violent to be more violent, it increases the incentive to be violent, both as retaliation and as pre-emption.”— Bravado in the absence of order (3)

“In accordance with the tendency for social stereotypes to be (relatively) accurate, a high-violence stereotype became established regarding descendants of American slaves.”— Bravado in the absence of order (3)

“what African Americans needed most was less rule of law.”— Homicides Way Down

“how bad the Ferguson Effect was in Baltimore, beginning with the Freddie Gray riot April 27, 2015.”— The racial reckoning murder spree is over

“the cops stopped pulling over black bad drivers a few days after May 25, 2020.”— Why Are Black Suicides Up So Much?

“the anti-police drove up death rates”— CDC Traffic Fatalities: Good News and Bad News

“Before Black Lives Matter, whites usually used to die the most per capita in traffic accidents (of course, whites drive the most per capita too) among the four major races/ethnicities.”— CDC Traffic Fatalities: Good News and Bad News

“Stigmatisation is about how people are perceived: stigma is negative ascription of others. If some group is seen as inherently violent... and are so stigmatised that bad outcomes are acceptable, are seen as “natural”, even preferred; their communities are then under-provided with, or even starved of, policing services. This results in much higher crime levels, which then supports stigmatisation, creating stereotypes which are accurate, self-reinforcing and, to that scale, the result of stigmatisation—stigmatisation that obscures, even hides, the reality of under-policing.”— Bravado in the absence of order (2)

“The sort of reasons that—overwhelmingly male—folk kill each other for in medieval court records are much the same reasons as—overwhelmingly male—folk kill each other in contemporary African-American urban communities.”— Bravado in the absence of order (2)

““IQ is off-limits today because people who are verbally facile, such as journalists and academics, tend to assume that reality is largely constructed from words. Thus, if we would all just stop writing about unpleasant facts, they would disappear.””— Steve Sailer: Still noticing after all these years

““For instance, the fact that African-Americans seem to have a particular tendency toward criminal violence, for whatever combinations of reasons of nature and nurture, suggests that they need law enforcement more, not less, than do the rest of us.””— Steve Sailer: Still noticing after all these years

“Homicides up over 40% since Ferguson”— FBI: Homicides up over 40% since Ferguson

““various pandemic stresses”—in the words of the Times, which also included for good measure, “increased firearm carrying.” ... “More people were at home, creating different social patterns. More people lost jobs and might have turned to dangerous and criminal behavior to make ends meet. People were stressed and unhappy,” The Atlantic said.”— What the Media Doesn’t Want You To Know About 2020’s Record Murder Spike

“we find some evidence that suggests that the nation’s political cultures played a role, with homicide increases in GOP-leaning counties tending to be smaller than those in Democratic-leaning counties ... there is no statistically significant relationship between the growth in the homicide rate and either the number of Covid-19 deaths or the number of guns sold per capita.”— Breaking Down the 2020 Homicide Spike

“In “Black Lives Matter’s Effect on Police Lethal Use of Force,” Campbell wrote: B.L.M. protests were responsible for approximately 200 fewer people killed by the police from 2014 to 2019. ... “Total reported homicides increased by 12.89 percent over the five years following B.L.M. protests, which is consistent with rising overall crime,” he wrote. That increase, he added, amounted to “over 3,000 homicides.””— NYT: Black Lives Matter got 15 times more blacks murdered than it saved

“In 2003, the city had 278 homicides and arrested over 110,000. In 2011, we had 197 and arrested 60,000 people. It’s never been about how many in Baltimore, it’s about who and for what.”— Baltimore Mayor Brandon Scott Breaks Down How Police Reform Can Affect Systemic Oppression

“"Such deaths are called 'concealment of birth' by the South African police, not murder, which explains why police figures are lower than the murder rate found by the death review teams."”— This 3-Year-Old's Murder Is Part Of South Africa's Alarming 'Epidemic'

“Democrats pushed police defunding in the name of social justice, reverse racism (later codified in CRT)”— Democrats Encouraging Violence? | @AmacforAmerica

“Hargrove says dwindling funding, resources and staffing contribute to the declining clearance rate. However, his research points to one factor most responsible. “The problem is that there’s a growing mistrust of police, especially after incidents like the murder of George Floyd in Minneapolis.””— Why experts say nearly half of US murder cases continue to go unsolved

“More prisoners are being bailed because of specific programmes to ensure judges have all the relevant information in front of them so they can consider cases in a timely manner. Similar efforts are made for prisoners to be parole-ready, and for those leaving prison - either on parole or having finished their sentence – to be supported with a house, job, driver's licence and bank account when they re-enter the community.”— Jailhouse drop: Drastic fall in prisoner numbers, but does that make us all safer?

“The average proportion of a sentence served has also dropped from 80 per cent in 2018 to 73 per cent in 2020, while at the same time recidivism rates have fallen.”— Jailhouse drop: Drastic fall in prisoner numbers, but does that make us all safer?

“However, bad practices by individual law enforcement officers create a significant danger not only to our communities, but also cause mistrust between law enforcement departments and to the people they serve.”— Rep. Cuellar Votes for George Floyd Justice in Policing Act

“In an important study released earlier this month, a team of researchers studying federal data found that having an SRO did reduce some violent incidents in schools, mainly fights, but did not appear to reduce shootings or firearm-related incidents. And their presence came at a high price: It meant that a higher proportion of students were suspended, arrested, or referred to the juvenile-justice systems, and the toll fell disproportionately on Black students.”— Violence in Schools Seems to Be Increasing. Why?

“the videotaped beating of recidivist Rodney King”— Instauration 1995 11 November

“In 2018, the rate of arrest for serious felony crimes reported to police was about 22%. But because twice as many crimes happen as the police are told about, the arrest rate for all crimes that happened was half what police reported – just 11%.”— Police solve just 2% of all major crimes

“out of all serious crimes reported to the police, only 4.1% of cases ended with an individual convicted in the wake of a reported crime. Again, taking into account the fact that twice as many crimes happen, the national conviction rate in 2006 was actually closer to 2%.”— Police solve just 2% of all major crimes

“The cuts were made to top officers' salaries and eliminated the Navigation Team and SWAT Unit, according to KOMO. ... These cuts amounted to less than 1% of the police budget, which is far less than the 50% Black Lives Matter protesters have been calling for.”— Seattle's first Black female police chief announced her resignation after the city council voted to cut the department's budget and ax dozens of jobs

“Then-Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake said his presence had become a distraction in a city that needs to focus on ending a dramatic spike in homicides.”— Baltimore’s police commissioners through the years

“The department has faced decades of allegations of brutality and other discrimination against African Americans and other minorities.”— Minneapolis officers quit in wake of George Floyd protests

“But criminologists have said there’s no proof that theory is to blame.”— Chicago violence, homicides and shootings up in 2015

““People got this misconception that after the riots police weren’t present or visible, but I can tell you in the neighborhoods we were in, we didn’t see any less presence than there were before,” said James Timpson, a community liaison for Safe Streets, a city-run anti-violence program.”— The Numbers Behind Baltimore's Record Year in Homicides

“Turning first to the pandemic, the report argues that the pandemic may have initially suppressed some homicides by limiting the opportunities for offenders and victims to interact due government-ordered restrictions. Then, as pandemic-related restrictions were relaxed during the last spring and summer of 2020 (or compliance with them diminished), homicide rates increased.”— Explaining the Great 2020 Homicide Spike

“Our analysis with CBS News also discovered differences by race. The national homicide rate for white victims keeps improving. The rate of solving murders for Black and Hispanic victims is much lower. In Baltimore City, the number of cleared homicides involving white victims has been higher than that for Black victims every year -- except one -- since 1995.”— Crime Without Punishment: Homicide Clearance Rates Are Declining Across The US. Baltimore's Is Down To 42%

“following pressure from Black Lives Matter protests last summer”— Downtown Seattle so dangerous city staff will have security escorts

“She added, however, 'that's not the reason I ultimately left. It was that I just couldn't stay there in an organization where they were going to strip so many officers of their jobs.'”— Downtown Seattle so dangerous city staff will have security escorts

“I’m pretty interested in the question of which intellectual movements are able to grow and evolve and strengthen, and which stagnate or devolve in various ways.”— The Police-Abolition Zombie Shambles On

How It Spread

The assumption spread rapidly through Black Lives Matter protests and riots that began after Ferguson in 2014 and intensified after George Floyd’s death in 2020. Demonstrations in more than 200 cities turned into sustained pressure on police departments to pull back from proactive enforcement, especially traffic stops involving Black drivers. Media outlets declared a racial reckoning and framed reduced policing as the path to justice, amplifying the message that police fear was the primary problem. Social pressure within academia and elite institutions made open dissent risky, with race realists hiding their views to avoid professional consequences. ^[1][7][10]

Mainstream media played a central role by promoting pandemic and economic explanations while downplaying the Ferguson Effect. The New York Times and other outlets ran stories that omitted Black Lives Matter’s role in the homicide spike or treated it as secondary to COVID-19 stresses. Academic papers claiming modest reductions in police killings were cited favorably, even when the same studies showed thousands of extra civilian deaths. Public discourse treated partial videos of police encounters as definitive proof of systemic brutality, building outrage that translated into policy demands. ^[12][30]

Institutional channels reinforced the message. City councils in Minneapolis, Seattle, and Baltimore responded to protest pressure by cutting budgets, disbanding units, and issuing consent decrees that prioritized reform over street-level order. School districts removed school resource officers after George Floyd protests, assuming their presence criminalized students more than it prevented violence. Government messaging on prison reduction and non-prosecution of low-level offenses portrayed these steps as progressive advances in safety. The cumulative effect was a broad cultural shift that equated more policing with more harm. ^[22][25][27]

▶ Supporting Quotes (34)

“Massive surges in anti-police activism led to police withdrawal, leading to fewer interruptions of confrontations, leading to surges in homicide.”— Bravado in the absence of order (3)

“a substantial proportion of Martin Luther King’s speeches and writings were directed against moral failings within African-American communities—something that contemporary academe memory-holes.”— Bravado in the absence of order (3)

“America’s ruling class decided that what African Americans needed most was less rule of law.”— Homicides Way Down

“beginning with the Freddie Gray riot April 27, 2015.”— The racial reckoning murder spree is over

“the young black male traffic fatality rate shot up during the George Floyd racial reckoning for reasons that I, but few other pundits, understand: the cops stopped pulling over black bad drivers a few days after May 25, 2020.”— Why Are Black Suicides Up So Much?

“Ferguson in 2014 unleashed the ironically lethal Black Lives Era.”— CDC Traffic Fatalities: Good News and Bad News

“This is as explicit a statement of abandonment—or, at least chronic under-provision—of public order for African-American communities as one can imagine. This persisting history which has led to, completely understandable, levels of what sociologists call legal cynicism.”— Bravado in the absence of order (2)

“One of the sins I was accused of before getting fired was liking a tweet by Steve Sailer.”— Steve Sailer: Still noticing after all these years

“the media-declared ‘racial reckoning’ following the death of George Floyd on May 25, 2020”— Steve Sailer: Still noticing after all these years

“The Establishment went nuts over George Floyd’s death in late May 2020 and, in effect, egged on blacks to carry their illegal handguns when they went out to party because they shouldn’t have to fear the police catching them, which led to a huge increase in black-on-black shootings.”— FBI: Homicides up over 40% since Ferguson

“Their articles instead hypothesized that the extra deaths were due to “various pandemic stresses”—in the words of the Times ... The articles did mention what the Times misleadingly referred to as “increased distrust between the police and the public,””— What the Media Doesn’t Want You To Know About 2020’s Record Murder Spike

“amid the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic and the protests and riots surrounding the death of George Floyd ... or—in an echo of the “Ferguson effect” debate from half a decade ago—by the summer protests and unrest, which could have led to depolicing.”— Breaking Down the 2020 Homicide Spike

“Other scholars found additional benefits deriving from the protests. “Nationwide, Black Lives Matter protests occurred concurrently with sharp increases in public attention to components of the B.L.M. agenda,” Zackary Dunivin, Harry Yaojun Yan and Fabio Rojas, all at Indiana University, and Jelani Ince, a professor of sociology at the University of Washington, wrote in a March 2022 paper, “Black Lives Matter Protests Shift Public Discourse.””— NYT: Black Lives Matter got 15 times more blacks murdered than it saved

“Freddie Gray’s legacy lives on... sparked years of reforms and efforts that would have never happened... We have to treat violence and crime like a public health issue.”— Baltimore Mayor Brandon Scott Breaks Down How Police Reform Can Affect Systemic Oppression

“"In terms of child murders, we see in a year what the United Kingdom sees in 10 years," says Shanaaz Mathews... In England and Wales... there are roughly 135 child murders a year.”— This 3-Year-Old's Murder Is Part Of South Africa's Alarming 'Epidemic'

“encouraged by Democrat politicians. These ended in vast personal and property damage... weak prosecution, few convictions, and leading Democrats – including now-VP Harris – helping bail out violent offenders.”— Democrats Encouraging Violence? | @AmacforAmerica

“The murder of Floyd sparked nationwide protests and calls from some activists to defund the police. Following that tumultuous summer, murder clearance rates, which were already on the decline, continued to drop. Experts we spoke with say, that mistrust for police means less cooperation from the public, who are key in helping investigators solve these crimes.”— Why experts say nearly half of US murder cases continue to go unsolved

“The massive turnaround is also political ammunition. The Opposition has been touting law and order as a major election issue, and a decrease in prisoner numbers is a convenient target for clichéd cries of "soft on crime".”— Jailhouse drop: Drastic fall in prisoner numbers, but does that make us all safer?

“This legislation is a comprehensive approach that will hold police accountable, end racial profiling, empower our communities, and build trust between law enforcement and our communities.”— Rep. Cuellar Votes for George Floyd Justice in Policing Act

“Earlier this summer, Education Week found that a small number of U.S. school districts remove police officers or cut their school-policing budgets in the wake of racial-justice protests in 2020.”— Violence in Schools Seems to Be Increasing. Why?

“the white cops who played the heavies in the videotaped beating of recidivist Rodney King”— Instauration 1995 11 November

“By comparing surveys of the public with police reports, it’s clear that less than half of serious violent felonies – crimes like aggravated assault and burglary – ever get reported to the police.”— Police solve just 2% of all major crimes

“Black Lives Matter protesters have been calling for. ... For weeks in June, protesters took control of the area around the Seattle Police Department's East Precinct building and designated it a police-free zone, which they named the Capitol Hill Organized Protest, or CHOP.”— Seattle's first Black female police chief announced her resignation after the city council voted to cut the department's budget and ax dozens of jobs

“With Michael Harrison set to be confirmed by the City Council, here’s a look back at the top Baltimore cops through the years.”— Baltimore’s police commissioners through the years

“Current and former officers told The Minneapolis Star Tribune that officers are upset with Mayor Jacob Frey’s decision to abandon the Third Precinct station during the protests. Demonstrators set the building on fire after officers left.”— Minneapolis officers quit in wake of George Floyd protests

“The surge in violence came during a year when the Chicago Police Department received harsh national attention for shootings by officers, highlighting its sordid history of police misconduct.”— Chicago violence, homicides and shootings up in 2015

“Residents, analysts and policymakers here are divided over the precise cause of the surge in homicides. ... Others in Baltimore suspected that the police stood down after the unrest associated with Freddie Gray’s death — an assertion the department has categorically denied.”— The Numbers Behind Baltimore's Record Year in Homicides

“The new Rosenfeld report explains that this is a "large and troubling increase that has no modern precedent." The previous largest single-year increase in the United States was 12.7%, back in 1968.”— Explaining the Great 2020 Homicide Spike

“WJZ, in collaboration with CBS News, is examining a crime often going without punishment in our country. The national homicide clearance rate is at an all-time low, according to FBI data.”— Crime Without Punishment: Homicide Clearance Rates Are Declining Across The US. Baltimore's Is Down To 42%

“pressure from Black Lives Matter protests”— Downtown Seattle so dangerous city staff will have security escorts

“The walking bus announcement also makes no mention of spiraling crime in the Pacific Northwest county”— Downtown Seattle so dangerous city staff will have security escorts

“A strong majority of Black respondents (52%) oppose defund efforts, with only 18% strongly supporting them”— What Communities of Color Want from Police Reform

“The Police-Abolition Zombie Shambles On”— The Police-Abolition Zombie Shambles On

“I find police abolition discourse to be a really interes…”— The Police-Abolition Zombie Shambles On

Resulting Policies

After the Ferguson unrest in 2014 and again after George Floyd’s death in 2020, anti-police activism pressured departments in cities including Baltimore, Chicago, Milwaukee, and St. Louis to reduce proactive enforcement and traffic stops in Black neighborhoods. The George Floyd Justice in Policing Act advanced through the House with support from figures like Rep. Henry Cuellar, establishing national standards, a misconduct registry, body camera requirements, and community policing grants justified by the need to rebuild trust. Baltimore enacted a federal consent decree, repealed its law enforcement bill of rights, and launched a public-health violence reduction framework that emphasized interrupters over traditional policing. These measures rested on the belief that police presence caused more harm than the violence it interrupted. ^[1][21][16]

Seattle City Council cut the police budget by millions, eliminated specialized units, and removed 100 officers while the Minneapolis City Council majority openly discussed dismantling the department. Non-prosecution policies for low-level offenses such as drug possession and prostitution were implemented in Baltimore and elsewhere, with plans to divert 911 calls to mental health professionals. Prison and jail populations dropped sharply in 2020 as rogue prosecutors declined cases and cities embraced reintegration programs. School districts in places like Alexandria, Virginia removed school resource officers, assuming their presence exacerbated racial disparities without improving safety. ^[25][27][22]

Jim Crow-era policies in the South had already institutionalized under-policing in segregated Black communities, lacking both capacity and trust to suppress honor-based violence. Contemporary versions of this pattern appeared in consent decrees and budget cuts that treated aggressive order maintenance as the problem rather than the solution. Clearance rates fell as witness cooperation declined amid mistrust, leaving nearly half of murders unsolved by 2021. The policies were enacted with the explicit claim that reducing police presence would lower violence in Black communities. Growing evidence suggests they achieved the opposite. ^[6][19]

▶ Supporting Quotes (28)

“The most effective way police reduce homicide rates is by being present to interrupt and defuse confrontations. Police who are sufficiently respected are directed towards such confrontations.”— Bravado in the absence of order (3)

“the cops stopped pulling over black bad drivers a few days after May 25, 2020.”— Why Are Black Suicides Up So Much?

“the return of good times and the anti-police drove up death rates”— CDC Traffic Fatalities: Good News and Bad News

“the media-declared ‘racial reckoning’ following the death of George Floyd on May 25, 2020, has been getting a lot of blacks murdered by other blacks.”— Steve Sailer: Still noticing after all these years

““The number of people in America’s prisons and jails dropped by 14% from 2019 to mid-2020,” writes Bader. ... rogue prosecutors elected with far-leftist money are releasing criminals from prison or not prosecuting them in the first place”— What the Media Doesn’t Want You To Know About 2020’s Record Murder Spike

“The Ferguson Effect from 2014 onward was more localized and more spread out in time than the much more national and immediate Floyd Effect. So it’s easy to see that where BLM did score major triumphs over the local police, such as in the St. Louis area, Baltimore, Chicago, and Milwaukee, homicides soon shot up in the black community.”— NYT: Black Lives Matter got 15 times more blacks murdered than it saved

“Baltimore would never have had a police department can consent decree... I created the Mayor’s Office and Neighborhood Safety and Engagement and then embarking upon Baltimore’s first of its kind Comprehensive Violence Reduction Framework Plan.”— Baltimore Mayor Brandon Scott Breaks Down How Police Reform Can Affect Systemic Oppression

“the state’s attorney, Marilyn Mosby, has said she’s already stopped prosecuting certain “low-level offenses” like drug possession and prostitution... we’re going to be pushing towards a world class 911 diversion program where we’re going to be sending healthcare professionals and mental health professionals out.”— Baltimore Mayor Brandon Scott Breaks Down How Police Reform Can Affect Systemic Oppression

“If the shooter is under 15, it's practically impossible to prosecute him anyway, because children under 14 are considered incapable of criminal responsibility under South African law.”— This 3-Year-Old's Murder Is Part Of South Africa's Alarming 'Epidemic'

“Democrats pushed police defunding... weak prosecution, few convictions... They continue to block Republican police reform efforts”— Democrats Encouraging Violence? | @AmacforAmerica

“This is reintegration, which used to be 10 per cent of the rehabilitation spend, Davis says. That's like having two broken legs and only fixing one. That spend is now 17 per cent.”— Jailhouse drop: Drastic fall in prisoner numbers, but does that make us all safer?

“Short-termers tend to be those on lower-level offences, and police have increasingly been using diversion for category 1 and 2 offences”— Jailhouse drop: Drastic fall in prisoner numbers, but does that make us all safer?

“This legislation would create a national standard for the operation of police departments; mandate data collection on police encounters; reprogram existing funds to invest in transformative community-based policing program; and streamline federal law to prosecute excessive force and establish independent prosecutors for police investigations.”— Rep. Cuellar Votes for George Floyd Justice in Policing Act

“The George Floyd Justice in Policing Act will take numerous key steps to achieve police reform, including: Ending racial, religious and discriminatory profiling; Establishing a National Police Misconduct Registry to improve transparency and prevent problematic officers who are fired or leave one agency, from moving to another jurisdiction without any accountability; Requiring data collection, including mandatory body cameras and dashboard cameras; ... Making lynching a federal hate crime;”— Rep. Cuellar Votes for George Floyd Justice in Policing Act

“Shortly after, the council voted to temporarily restore school police officers, who had been pulled from buildings last year in the wake of a wave of national protests about police violence.”— Violence in Schools Seems to Be Increasing. Why?

“As Americans across the nation protest police violence, people have begun to call for cuts or changes in public spending on police. But neither these nor other proposed reforms address a key problem with solving crimes.”— Police solve just 2% of all major crimes

“The Seattle City Council approved amendments to the current city budget, reducing the police departments $409 million budget by $3.5 million”— Seattle's first Black female police chief announced her resignation after the city council voted to cut the department's budget and ax dozens of jobs

“Anthony Batts was fired in July 2015.”— Baltimore’s police commissioners through the years

“officers are upset with Mayor Jacob Frey’s decision to abandon the Third Precinct station during the protests.”— Minneapolis officers quit in wake of George Floyd protests

“The program has cost taxpayers around $100 million or more a year since 2013, but Escalante, like McCarthy, has maintained that using overtime money is a lot cheaper than hiring more officers.”— Chicago violence, homicides and shootings up in 2015

“Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake fired the city’s police commissioner, Anthony W. Batts, over the summer, calling for change during a surge in crime.”— The Numbers Behind Baltimore's Record Year in Homicides

“Here's another similar trend line showing sharp reductions in policing at the end of May, this one depicting street stops by the Los Angeles Police Department: Here again, LAPD activity (as measured by total persons stopped) dropped below normal levels (depicted in the grey line) beginning around mid-March.”— Explaining the Great 2020 Homicide Spike

“the City Council slashed the department by 100 officers following pressure from Black Lives Matter protests.”— Downtown Seattle so dangerous city staff will have security escorts

“100 of which were due to a Covid-19 vaccine mandate that forced employees to leave their jobs if they didn't have the jab by October 18.”— Downtown Seattle so dangerous city staff will have security escorts

“King County is launching a 'Walking Bus' pilot program where county employees can join their colleagues and a Facilities Management Division (FMD) Security Escort”— Downtown Seattle so dangerous city staff will have security escorts

“Black and Latino Americans support mental health services, drug rehabilitation, and other non-police approaches to reducing crime, but they don't want less policing—they want better policing”— What Communities of Color Want from Police Reform

Harm Caused

Homicides surged after both the Ferguson and George Floyd periods, adding an estimated 5,000 extra murders in 2020 alone with African Americans comprising 53 percent of all victims and the majority of the additional deaths. The CDC tracked weekly increases beginning the week of George Floyd’s death, with national homicides rising 41.9 percent from 2014 to 2023 while the population grew only 5 percent. Black homicide victimization rates climbed from 19.5 per 100,000 in 2012-2013 to 22.7 in 2014-2019, producing thousands of excess deaths that might have been avoided under different policy choices. Baltimore’s per-capita murder rate reached 55 per 100,000 in 2015, worse than the crack era, and the city recorded more than 1,500 killings over five years with more than half remaining unsolved. ^{[9][10][12][29]}

Traffic fatalities among Black Americans rose dramatically during the period of reduced policing, with the Black rate increasing 45 percent from 2014 to 2024 and 36 percent in the second half of 2020 alone compared with 9 percent for others. Young Black male traffic death rates and suicide rates both climbed significantly over the decade. Overall traffic deaths rose 15 percent nationally since 2014, with the largest increases among the groups with the highest preexisting homicide rates. These deaths compounded the homicide toll and illustrated the broad public safety costs of de-policing. ^[5][7]

Clearance rates collapsed from over 80 percent in 1965 to 54 percent nationally by 2021, leaving families without justice and emboldening perpetrators who believed they could act with impunity. In Baltimore the rate fell to 30.5 percent in one peak year and showed persistent racial disparities, with Black victim clearances lagging white ones by wide margins. Low solve rates perpetuated bravado culture, feuds, and reactive aggression in under-policed neighborhoods. The human cost included record ambushes on officers, demoralization, and public trust in policing falling to 20 percent. ^[19][31]

▶ Supporting Quotes (45)

“We can see the importance of such disrupting and defusing very clearly in the surges in homicides after the Ferguson and George Floyd BLM riots. Massive surges in anti-police activism led to police withdrawal, leading to fewer interruptions of confrontations, leading to surges in homicide. Needless to say, people’s genetics—their continental ancestry—did not change during these sharp surges in homicides and serious assaults.”— Bravado in the absence of order (3)

“dramatically lower homicide clearance rates within African-American communities”— Bravado in the absence of order (3)

“the U.S. went through a murderous decade starting with the emergence of Black Lives Matter”— Homicides Way Down

“There were no homicides in Modesto in all of 2025, mayor confirms”— Homicides Way Down

“The Ferguson Effect drove up Baltimore’s murder rate to be even worse than in the crack era of the early 1990s portrayed on The Wire.”— The racial reckoning murder spree is over

“The racial reckoning murder spree is over The Ferguson and Floyd Effects are finally over and done with if homicide stats are reliable.”— The racial reckoning murder spree is over

“the young black male traffic fatality rate shot up during the George Floyd racial reckoning”— Why Are Black Suicides Up So Much?

“the young black male suicide rate has gone up a lot in the last decade for reasons that nobody seems to understand.”— Why Are Black Suicides Up So Much?

“for the same reason black homicide deaths have declined: nobody cares about Black Lives Matter anymore”— Why Are Black Suicides Up So Much?

“the black death rate was still 11% higher in 2024 than in 2019 and 45% higher in 2024 than in 2014... The Hispanic death rate is up 39% over the last 10 years... The white death rate on the roads is up 8% since 2014”— CDC Traffic Fatalities: Good News and Bad News

“Overall death rates are still up 15% since 2024 and 7% since 2019.”— CDC Traffic Fatalities: Good News and Bad News

“That the overall male homicide death rate in descendants of American slaves communities was twelve times that in Euro-American communities in 1950... speaks to the long-term failures in providing public order in those communities. Low homicide clearance rates means that people are literally getting away with murder.”— Bravado in the absence of order (2)

“In Indianapolis in 1919, a negro shot and killed another following a quarrel over a girl. Upon apprehension, the perpetrator admitted the act, but was freed by the Grand Jury presumably upon the ground of justification in killing a trespassing rival. Upon release from custody he called at the coroner’s office to collect his pistol which he had left by the body of his victim and which had been held in evidence.”— Bravado in the absence of order (2)

“If policy makers listened more to Sailer and less to preening white liberals, thousands of black men and women who were killed from 2014-2024 might still be alive today: “As I may have mentioned once or twice over the past year, the media-declared ‘racial reckoning’ following the death of George Floyd on May 25, 2020, has been getting a lot of blacks murdered by other blacks. But I am not being ironic in saying that I am now stunned to find out that motor vehicle fatalities among blacks similarly soared 36% in June-December 2020 versus the same period in 2019, compared with a 9% increase in the rest of the population.””— Steve Sailer: Still noticing after all these years

“But I am not being ironic in saying that I am now stunned to find out that motor vehicle fatalities among blacks similarly soared 36% in June-December 2020 versus the same period in 2019, compared with a 9% increase in the rest of the population.”— Steve Sailer: Still noticing after all these years

“the FBI’s count of the total number of homicides in the U.S. was 41.9% higher in 2023 than in 2014, the year when Ferguson unleashed the catastrophic Black Lives Matter movement, and up 43.8% in the CDC data. (The US population was up around 5% over the same period.)”— FBI: Homicides up over 40% since Ferguson

“That is an extra 5,000 Americans killed in 2020, a majority of them African-Americans, as they make up 53 percent of homicide victims.”— What the Media Doesn’t Want You To Know About 2020’s Record Murder Spike

“there were between 1,000 and 6,000 extra murders between 2014 and 2019 in areas of the country where BLM had protested. That is called “the Ferguson effect.” ... this brings the number of extra Americans murdered since 2014 ... to perhaps more than 11,000.”— What the Media Doesn’t Want You To Know About 2020’s Record Murder Spike

“The demographic groups that started out with the highest homicide rates also saw the biggest surges ... 8 additional black deaths for every 100,000 population.”— Breaking Down the 2020 Homicide Spike

““Total reported homicides increased by 12.89 percent over the five years following B.L.M. protests, which is consistent with rising overall crime,” he wrote. That increase, he added, amounted to “over 3,000 homicides.” ... Data on all homicide deaths compiled by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows a significant increase in Black death rates from 2014 to 2019, while the death rate among white people remained virtually unchanged. In 2012 and 2013, the Black homicide rate averaged 19.5 for every 100,000 people. From 2014 to 2019, the average rose to 22.7.”— NYT: Black Lives Matter got 15 times more blacks murdered than it saved

“C.D.C. data shows that the national weekly homicide average was 410 in the 10 weeks before Floyd’s death and 523 for the 10 weeks afterward, when protests occurred in cities across the nation. ... “What is beyond debate is that homicides increased dramatically in 2020. Murders surged nearly 30 percent, the largest one-year increase on record.””— NYT: Black Lives Matter got 15 times more blacks murdered than it saved

“like some 92 homicides have taken place already in the city this year. That follows some more than 300 in Baltimore last year.”— Baltimore Mayor Brandon Scott Breaks Down How Police Reform Can Affect Systemic Oppression

“"We in the health care system don't think it's our problem," Scott says. "The police don't think it's their problem. Social workers are overwhelmed. Who's going to fix the problem?"”— This 3-Year-Old's Murder Is Part Of South Africa's Alarming 'Epidemic'

“Violence in the past three years has spiked... partial assessments rising to billions in property damage... death of innocents – including police officers... police ambushes hit records in 2022. Police found themselves fighting for their lives... suicides spiking.”— Democrats Encouraging Violence? | @AmacforAmerica

“hemorrhaging of public trust, rise of public fear, a shaken belief in public safety... Only two in ten Americans trust the government to do what is right in 2022.”— Democrats Encouraging Violence? | @AmacforAmerica

“According to FBI data, nearly 23,000 people were killed in 2021. Criminology experts say almost half of those cases won’t be solved, leaving the killers free and families without justice.”— Why experts say nearly half of US murder cases continue to go unsolved

“Every year, police in Kansas City investigate more than 100 homicides. The department has seen its murder clearance rate drop from a peak of 95% in 1965, to 36% just last year.”— Why experts say nearly half of US murder cases continue to go unsolved

““Having a 54% clearance rate is devastating,” Hargrove said. “It leads to more murder.” According to Hargrove, the drop in clearance rate gives the appearance to criminals that they have a good chance of getting away with the crime.”— Why experts say nearly half of US murder cases continue to go unsolved

“Police data shows a steady increase in violent crimes - assault, sexual assault, abduction, robbery - across the country every year: 25,551 such crimes in 2017, 27,431 in 2018, 28,897 in 2019, 29,561 in 2020, and 32,021 in 2021. That's a 25 per cent increase or a 6.3 per cent annual increase on average.”— Jailhouse drop: Drastic fall in prisoner numbers, but does that make us all safer?

“The re-imprisonment rate for those on community-based sentences rose over that same period from 8.2 per cent to 10.8 per cent”— Jailhouse drop: Drastic fall in prisoner numbers, but does that make us all safer?

“In Anchorage, Alaska, fights and assaults are making up more of the suspensions issued so far this year. A brawl and stabbing in an Annapolis, Md., high school led to seven juvenile arrests. Pupils damaged elementary classrooms in Vermont, overturning furniture and supply bins. Parents in Baltimore County, Md., organized a protest in response to a perceived increase in violence.”— Violence in Schools Seems to Be Increasing. Why?

“In Rochester, N.Y., high school English teacher Corrine Mundorff was in the middle of trying to break up a fight when, she says, a student sexually assaulted her, repeatedly groping her after she told the student not to.”— Violence in Schools Seems to Be Increasing. Why?

“avoid another insurrection (53 dead), like the one that followed the Simi Valley verdict”— Instauration 1995 11 November

“the number of people police hold accountable for crimes – what I call the “criminal accountability” rate – is very low.”— Police solve just 2% of all major crimes

“The latest cuts could result in about 100 officers being eliminated through layoffs or attrition, according to KIRO 7. ... Chief Carmen Best — who was the first Black woman to lead the Seattle police — said her resignation would be effective September 2.”— Seattle's first Black female police chief announced her resignation after the city council voted to cut the department's budget and ax dozens of jobs

“Edward Norris left the department in 2002 to head the Maryland State Police. He was later indicted on corruption charges for misusing a city expense account, and was sentenced to six months in prison.”— Baltimore’s police commissioners through the years

“At least seven Minneapolis police officers have quit and another seven are in the process of resigning, citing a lack of support from department and city leaders... Deputy Chief Henry Halvorson said in an email to supervisors earlier this month that some officers have simply walked off the job without filing the proper paperwork, creating confusion about who is still working and who isn’t.”— Minneapolis officers quit in wake of George Floyd protests

“Chicago recorded 468 homicides, up from 416 during the year-earlier period, official department figures show. The city had 2,939 shooting victims in 2015, an increase over 2014’s 2,600”— Chicago violence, homicides and shootings up in 2015

“344 The number of Baltimore homicides in 2015, a 63 percent increase over 2014 ... 55 The per-capita murder rate, a city record, for every 100,000 residents ... Overall, the percentage of homicides solved by the police, known as the clearance rate, fell to 30.5 percent in 2015”— The Numbers Behind Baltimore's Record Year in Homicides

“Homicide rates were 30% higher than in 2019—an historic increase representing more than 1,268 additional murders (in a sample of 34 cities), according to an important new report released today by Professor Richard Rosenfeld and two colleagues.”— Explaining the Great 2020 Homicide Spike

“Baltimore has seen so much pain, with more than 1,500 people killed in the past five years. More than half of those killings remain unsolved. ... Shooters face "no consequences for their actions. They look at police like they're a joke," she said.”— Crime Without Punishment: Homicide Clearance Rates Are Declining Across The US. Baltimore's Is Down To 42%

“In 2016, only 11% of homicides involving Black victims were solved compared to 35.7% for white victims. In 2020, 43.4% of homicides involving Black victims were cleared compared to 68.2% for white victims.”— Crime Without Punishment: Homicide Clearance Rates Are Declining Across The US. Baltimore's Is Down To 42%

“a recent 35 per cent spike in shootings this year compared to last, and a 76 per cent increase compared to 2019. So far in 2021, 73 people have been killed and another 283 have been injured by shootings”— Downtown Seattle so dangerous city staff will have security escorts

“Seattle's current police staffing crisis was caused by our current politicians and sadly it all could've been avoided.”— Downtown Seattle so dangerous city staff will have security escorts

“Aggressive order maintenance strategies did not generate significant crime reductions”— Disorder policing to reduce crime: An updated systematic review

Downfall

The assumption began to lose force when homicide numbers spiked exactly when and where protests and de-policing were most intense. CDC weekly data revealed a structural break in the last week of May 2020 coinciding with George Floyd protests rather than pandemic onset or mobility changes. Cities with higher Republican vote shares experienced smaller increases, suggesting that local support for policing limited the damage. International comparisons showed homicides falling in comparable nations, undermining universal explanations like COVID stress. Growing evidence suggests the link between reduced police presence and rising violence was real. ^[10][11][12]

As Black Lives Matter influence waned after 2020, policing resumed in many jurisdictions and homicide rates began to fall. CDC WONDER data showed weekly homicide deaths declining through mid-2025, with some cities recording sharp drops or even weeks with zero murders by 2025. Black traffic death rates peaked in 2021 and then drifted downward, though they remained elevated compared with pre-2014 baselines. The end of the murder spree tracked by the CDC exposed the assumption’s failure in plain numbers. ^[2][4][5]

High-profile studies and official statistics further undermined the original claims. The Washington Post database and FBI figures revealed that the number of unarmed Black shootings by police was far smaller than activist rhetoric suggested, with liberal estimates off by a factor of ten. Multivariate models controlling for demographics confirmed that the 2020 political indicator predicted higher homicide growth better than economic factors alone. A substantial body of experts now reject the idea that reducing police presence lowers violence in Black communities, though the broader debate over policing reform remains unsettled. ^[8][11]

▶ Supporting Quotes (29)

“they stopped carrying so much about BLM, so black deaths went down.”— Homicides Way Down

“this graphs goes up through June 14, 2025: Presumably, the second half of 2025 would show a continued decline.”— Homicides Way Down

“The murder rate in Baltimore is now only slightly worse than in 1977, the year after Taxi Driver... The Ferguson and Floyd Effects are finally over and done with if homicide stats are reliable.”— The racial reckoning murder spree is over

“The Ferguson and Floyd Effects are finally over and done with if homicide stats are reliable.”— The racial reckoning murder spree is over

“But it has since gone down for the same reason black homicide deaths have declined: nobody cares about Black Lives Matter anymore, so black lives are being spared.”— Why Are Black Suicides Up So Much?

“black deaths in traffic fatalities per capita... have been dropping since the peak of the Racial Reckoning in 2021. But, the black death rate was still 11% higher in 2024 than in 2019 and 45% higher in 2024 than in 2014.”— CDC Traffic Fatalities: Good News and Bad News

“In total, 18 unarmed Black Americans were shot by police in 2020... The Washington Post, for example, is one of several websites that now maintains a public and easily accessible database of police shootings... We found that strongly-identified political liberals overestimated the actual number to an incredible degree—many were wrong by over an order of magnitude... “very liberal” Americans estimate that number to be over 60 percent... About 25 percent of all people shot by police are Black in any given year.”— Race & Policing: A Data-Driven Look at Policing and Its Discontents

“Murders are dropping since the Racial Reckoning started to peter out... homicides were down sharply in 2023 vs. 2022, 11.7% in the FBI tally... In the more reliable CDC count, homicides were down 8.1% in 2023 vs. 2022.”— FBI: Homicides up over 40% since Ferguson

“The FBI has made it official: 2020 saw the biggest spike in murders in American history—30 percent. ... “Most of the world saw reductions in homicide rates in 2020.”— What the Media Doesn’t Want You To Know About 2020’s Record Murder Spike

“"The killing of Floyd, and the legitimacy crisis it created, accelerated violence in Denver ... Homicide spiked in this period by 54% ... Pyrooz, Nix and Wolfe name three effects from the anti-police rhetoric we saw in 2020: “The first is depolicing ... Second, depleted trust ... Lastly, delegitimacy"”— What the Media Doesn’t Want You To Know About 2020’s Record Murder Spike

“Counties with a higher share of GOP voters not only have lower homicide rates but also a lower growth in homicide rates between 2019 and 2020 (Figures 6 and 7).”— Breaking Down the 2020 Homicide Spike

“we pool our two years of data for 302 counties and estimate multivariate regressions. We examine models with two different outcome variables—the log number of deaths due to homicides and their year-to-year growth rate. We regress these outcomes on an indicator for whether the year is 2020, together with demographic and county controls.”— Breaking Down the 2020 Homicide Spike

“When weekly homicides are studied, he continued, citing data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, a very clear pattern emerges. Although social and economic disruption caused by Covid began in early 2020, it wasn’t until the week ending May 30 that weekly homicides topped 500 for the first time in many years. Although unemployment caused by Covid surged in April, there was little if any increase in murders at that time. Homicide began the historic hike exactly in the week when George Floyd was murdered.”— NYT: Black Lives Matter got 15 times more blacks murdered than it saved

“Their pilot study of cases in 2014 found that the rate of child homicide is substantially higher than what has been reported in police statistics.”— This 3-Year-Old's Murder Is Part Of South Africa's Alarming 'Epidemic'

“record numbers of Blacks, Hispanics, and Asians seem to be leaving the Democrats... Record numbers of minorities – and women – are buying firearms”— Democrats Encouraging Violence? | @AmacforAmerica

““Try to change the narrative in the relationship between police and their community, and you’ll never imagine what happens. The clearance rate goes up, and when that happens, the murder rate starts to decline.””— Why experts say nearly half of US murder cases continue to go unsolved

“"It's a much more complicated situation than that. But if prison population is falling, and violent crime across the community is increasing, you have to ask yourself the question: 'Well, what's going on?'"”— Jailhouse drop: Drastic fall in prisoner numbers, but does that make us all safer?

“Congressman Cuellar calls on the Senate to find a compromise on this legislation.”— Rep. Cuellar Votes for George Floyd Justice in Policing Act

“In Rochester, the president of the teachers’ union and three other labor groups representing educators recently demanded that the district consider several options, including restoring SROs in high schools.”— Violence in Schools Seems to Be Increasing. Why?

“Simi Valley verdict of acquittal by an all-white jury”— Instauration 1995 11 November

“My recent review of 50 years of national crime data confirms that, as police report, they don’t solve most serious crimes in America. But the real statistics are worse than police data show.”— Police solve just 2% of all major crimes

“The police chief of Seattle announced her resignation on Monday, hours after the City Council reduced her department's budget by nearly 1%.”— Seattle's first Black female police chief announced her resignation after the city council voted to cut the department's budget and ax dozens of jobs

“Acting police commissioner Michael Harrison, the former police superintendent in New Orleans, is expected to be confirmed by the Baltimore City Council.”— Baltimore’s police commissioners through the years

““People got this misconception that after the riots police weren’t present or visible, but I can tell you in the neighborhoods we were in, we didn’t see any less presence than there were before,” said James Timpson ... Kevin Davis, the new Baltimore chief of police, has announced fresh initiatives to catch violent criminals.”— The Numbers Behind Baltimore's Record Year in Homicides

“This graph depicts the structural break (the vertical red line) in homicide trends--i.e., a statistically significant change in the times series occurring in the last week of May. This graph would seem to identify the increase in homicides igniting at that time--not earlier.”— Explaining the Great 2020 Homicide Spike

“The national homicide clearance rate is at an all-time low, according to FBI data. ... So far this year, it's around 42% and remains below national averages.”— Crime Without Punishment: Homicide Clearance Rates Are Declining Across The US. Baltimore's Is Down To 42%

“You don't hear it as much about defunding the police department. Because people want safety.”— Downtown Seattle so dangerous city staff will have security escorts

“The Police-Abolition Zombie Shambles On”— The Police-Abolition Zombie Shambles On

Sources

[1]
Bravado in the absence of order (3)reputable_journalism
Lorenzo Warby · Lorenzo from Oz · 2025-10-19
[2]
Homicides Way Downopinion
Steve Sailer · Steve Sailer's Substack · 2026-01-03
[3]
The racial reckoning murder spree is overopinion
Steve Sailer · Steve Sailer's Substack · 2025-12-31
[4]
Why Are Black Suicides Up So Much?opinion
Steve Sailer · Steve Sailer's Substack · 2025-11-18
[5]
CDC Traffic Fatalities: Good News and Bad Newsopinion
Steve Sailer · Steve Sailer · 2025-07-12
[6]
Bravado in the absence of order (2)opinion
Lorenzo Warby · Lorenzo from Oz · 2025-10-15
[7]
Steve Sailer: Still noticing after all these yearsreputable_journalism
Bo Winegard · Aporia Magazine · 2024-03-28
[8]
Race & Policing: A Data-Driven Look at Policing and Its Discontentsreputable_journalism
Michael Shermer · Skeptic Research Center · 2022-07
[9]
FBI: Homicides up over 40% since Fergusonopinion
Steve Sailer · Steve Sailer · 2024-09-24
[10]
What the Media Doesn’t Want You To Know About 2020’s Record Murder Spikereputable_journalism
Mike Gonzalez · Heritage Foundation · 2021-10-07
[11]
Breaking Down the 2020 Homicide Spikereputable_journalism
Christos A. Makridis, Robert VerBruggen · Manhattan Institute · 2022-05-18
[12]
NYT: Black Lives Matter got 15 times more blacks murdered than it savedopinion
Steve Sailer · Unz Review · 2023-05-17
[16]
Baltimore Mayor Brandon Scott Breaks Down How Police Reform Can Affect Systemic Oppressionreputable_journalism
PBS · 2021-08
[17]
This 3-Year-Old's Murder Is Part Of South Africa's Alarming 'Epidemic'reputable_journalism
Alan Greenblatt · NPR · 2017-05-26
[18]
Democrats Encouraging Violence? | @AmacforAmericaopinion
AMAC · 2022
[19]
Why experts say nearly half of US murder cases continue to go unsolvedreputable_journalism
InvestigateTV · 2023-11-01
[20]
Jailhouse drop: Drastic fall in prisoner numbers, but does that make us all safer?reputable_journalism
Derek Cheng · NZ Herald · 2023-01-01
[21]
Rep. Cuellar Votes for George Floyd Justice in Policing Actprimary_source
Charlotte Laracy, Alexis Torres · cuellar.house.gov · 2020-06-25
[22]
Violence in Schools Seems to Be Increasing. Why?reputable_journalism
Education Week · 2021-11
[23]
Instauration 1995 11 Novemberopinion
Wilmot Robertson · Instauration · 1995-11
[24]
Police solve just 2% of all major crimesreputable_journalism
The Conversation
[25]
Seattle's first Black female police chief announced her resignation after the city council voted to cut the department's budget and ax dozens of jobsreputable_journalism
Business Insider · 2020-08-20
[26]
Baltimore’s police commissioners through the yearsreputable_journalism
Baltimore Sun · Baltimore Sun · 2019-03-11
[27]
Minneapolis officers quit in wake of George Floyd protestsreputable_journalism
Associated Press · Police1 · 2020-06-14
[28]
Chicago violence, homicides and shootings up in 2015reputable_journalism
Jeremy Gorner · Chicago Tribune · 2016-01-02
[29]
The Numbers Behind Baltimore's Record Year in Homicidesreputable_journalism
New York Times · 2016-01-14
[30]
Explaining the Great 2020 Homicide Spikereputable_journalism
Ilya Somin · Reason · 2021-02-01
[31]
Crime Without Punishment: Homicide Clearance Rates Are Declining Across The US. Baltimore's Is Down To 42%reputable_journalism
WJZ · CBS News Baltimore
[32]
Downtown Seattle so dangerous city staff will have security escortsreputable_journalism
A DAILY MAIL REPORTER · Daily Mail · 2021-11-11
[33]
Disorder policing to reduce crime: An updated systematic reviewpeer_reviewed
Braga et al. · 2024-01-01
[34]
More COPS, Less Crimepeer_reviewed
Steven Mello, Princeton · 2019-01-01
[35]
What Communities of Color Want from Police Reformreputable_journalism
Third Way · 2020-01-01
[36]
The Police-Abolition Zombie Shambles Onopinion
Jesse Singal · Substack · 2023-05-31

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ID: FA-20260209-96a11ea4 · Created: 2026-02-09T21:04:00.068565 · Schema v3