Economics Alone Drives Urban Decline
False Assumption: Population decline in major American cities stems primarily from economic shifts like factory closures and job losses rather than high murder rates.
Written by FARAgent on February 10, 2026
Major Northeast and Midwest cities lost population after 1970. Baltimore, Cleveland, Detroit, and St. Louis shrank. Experts pointed to factories closing. Manufacturing jobs moved south or abroad. Air conditioning made Sunbelt living tolerable.
Crime rates rose in the 1960s and 1970s. Detroit's murder rate climbed from under 1.0 per 10,000 in the 1950s to over 5.0 by 1975. Population fell 15 percent per decade. Baltimore lost nearly 40 percent since 1960 amid rising murders peaking at 6.0 in 2020. High murder cities continued losing people even as national rates fluctuated.
Henry Canaday's report shows cities below 2 murders per 10,000 gained or held population. Those above lost it, even controlling for economics and climate. St. Louis dropped 6 percent from 2019-2023 at 7.3 murders per 10,000. San Diego grew at 1.0. Growing evidence suggests murder rates powerfully shape urban population trends.
People Involved
- In the realm of urban economics, Henry Canaday stood out as a persistent voice against the tide. This economist and veteran business journalist compiled a report that tied murder rates directly to population shifts in American cities. He acted as a modern Cassandra, warning that crime, not just job losses, drove people away. [1]
- Meanwhile, Alan Ehrenhalt, a contributing editor for Governing magazine, brought these findings to a wider audience.
- He presented Canaday's data, highlighting the overlooked link between high homicide rates and urban exodus. [1]
▶ Supporting Quotes (2)
“Now Henry Canaday, an economist and longtime business journalist, has come up with some compelling data that purports to show that the connection between crime and population loss may be more direct and more powerful than most experts have believed.”— Murder and Population Decline: A Troubling Urban Linkage
“Alan Ehrenhalt is a contributing editor for Governing. He served for 19 years as executive editor of Governing Magazine.”— Murder and Population Decline: A Troubling Urban Linkage
Organizations Involved
Governing magazine played a key role in challenging the old narrative. The publication featured Alan Ehrenhalt's analysis of Henry Canaday's study, which connected murder rates to population decline in major cities. [1] Through this, the magazine promoted evidence that questioned the economic-only explanation for urban woes, even as broader institutions clung to factory closures and job migrations as the sole culprits. [1]
▶ Supporting Quotes (1)
“From Governing: ... An economist is making the case for such a correlation, and it carries a ring of plausibility.”— Murder and Population Decline: A Troubling Urban Linkage
The Foundation
For decades, experts pinned urban decline on economic forces alone. They pointed to factories shutting down, manufacturing jobs heading south or overseas, and air conditioning boosting Sunbelt appeal. [1] This view seemed solid, backed by studies on industrial shifts and regional growth. Yet it ignored a darker factor: murder rates exceeding 2 per 10,000 often sparked mass departures. [1] Growing evidence now suggests this oversight flawed the assumption, though the debate lingers in academic circles. [1]
▶ Supporting Quotes (1)
“There are plenty of plausible explanations for why this happened. Factories closed and manufacturing jobs departed for the South or foreign countries. Climate control made summer life endurable in previously unattractive places. And then there was crime.”— Murder and Population Decline: A Troubling Urban Linkage
How It Spread
The idea spread quietly through expert circles starting in the late 20th century. Most analysts downplayed crime's direct impact on population loss, treating it as a side effect of economic decay. [1] Media reports echoed this, focusing on job statistics while sidelining homicide data. [1] Academia reinforced it with papers on deindustrialization, and funding flowed to studies that fit the narrative. Dissenters faced skepticism, their work dismissed as incomplete. [1] Increasingly, though, this propagation is seen as flawed, with data challenging the indirect-link claim. [1]
▶ Supporting Quotes (1)
“could crime be the main reason so many cities lost so much of their population over the entire period? That might seem a difficult case to make. ... more powerful than most experts have believed.”— Murder and Population Decline: A Troubling Urban Linkage
Harm Caused
The consequences unfolded starkly in struggling cities. Detroit's murder rate climbed above 5.0 per 10,000 by 1975, coinciding with a 15 percent population drop each decade. [1] Baltimore shed nearly 40 percent of its residents since 1960 as violence surged. [1] St. Louis saw a 6 percent decline from 2019 to 2023, with murders at 7.3 per 10,000. [1] Growing evidence suggests these losses stemmed more from unchecked crime than economic shifts alone, though experts still debate the precise balance. [1]
▶ Supporting Quotes (1)
“It began its greatest decline in the 1960s, just at the time when the murder rate was moving alarmingly upward. Its murder rate per 10,000 residents was well under 1.0 in the 1950s; by 1975 it was up above 5.0. In those years the population was falling by about 15 percent per decade. ... Baltimore has lost nearly 40 percent of its population since 1960; ... St. Louis had a murder rate of 7.3 per 10,000 residents from 2019 to 2023 and lost 6 percent of its population.”— Murder and Population Decline: A Troubling Urban Linkage
Downfall
Henry Canaday's report, 'Crime & Population Changes in 21 U.S. Cities, 1960-2023,' marked a turning point in the early 2020s. It revealed a clear pattern: cities with under 2 murders per 10,000 gained residents, while those above lost them, even after controlling for other factors. [1] This data exposed cracks in the economics-only assumption. Replication efforts and fresh analyses built on it, fueling an emerging recognition of the flaw. [1] Still, the shift remains incomplete, with some holding to the old view amid ongoing debate. [1]
▶ Supporting Quotes (1)
“He divides cities into two categories: those that sustained a rate of less than 2 murders per year per 10,000 population and those that consistently experienced a higher rate. The ones below 2.0 nearly all gained people in the period he examined; those below 1.5 gained substantially. Cities with rates above 2.0 suffered population losses. This holds true, Canaday reports, even when other factors such as climate and economic change are taken into account.”— Murder and Population Decline: A Troubling Urban Linkage
Sources
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[1]
Murder and Population Decline: A Troubling Urban Linkagereputable_journalism