Iraq Invasion Would Stabilize Region
False Assumption: Overthrowing Saddam Hussein would replace his government with a stable pro-US regime without causing chaos or fragmentation.
Written by FARAgent on February 10, 2026
In 1991, Dick Cheney served as Secretary of Defense under George H.W. Bush. After victory in Kuwait, he advised against marching to Baghdad. He predicted a US occupation would leave America alone, with no Arab allies willing to invade Iraq, and removing the central government could make pieces of Iraq fly off into volatility.
Cheney explained this in a 1994 interview. His prudence contributed to a peace dividend. Defense spending fell, boosting the 1990s economy. But in the 2000s, as George W. Bush's Vice President, Cheney pushed hard for invading Iraq. He promoted the one percent doctrine, treating any small chance of Saddam aiding al-Qaeda nukes as a certainty. Neocons at the American Enterprise Institute obsessed over Saddam through the 1990s.
The 2003 invasion brought reelection in 2004 but protracted war. US deaths reached about 4500. It caused financial ruin by 2008. The war hit the wrong country, increased blowback risks, and failed to cut nuclear terror threats. Today strong consensus views the policy as a catastrophic error.
People Involved
- In 1991, Dick Cheney served as Secretary of Defense and advised against occupying Iraq after the Kuwait liberation. He foresaw US isolation and Iraqi fragmentation.
- President George H.W. Bush heeded this counsel, avoiding overthrow of Saddam Hussein and the chaos it would bring.
- By 2003, Cheney had become Vice President and flipped his stance. He fanatically pushed for invasion, ignoring his earlier warnings.
- President George W.
- Bush selected Cheney as running mate in 2000 and followed his lead into war.
- Neoconservatives, including Cheney and his wife, affiliated with the American Enterprise Institute from 1993. They grew obsessed with toppling Saddam during the 1990s and drove the agitation for war. [1]
▶ Supporting Quotes (4)
“Why did the man who prudently sided with GHWB to not go to Baghdad in 1991 fanatically encourage GWB to go to Baghdad in 2003?”— Dick Cheney, RIP
“In 1991 he helped choose not to invade Iraq, which led to peace and prosperity, but electoral defeat.”— Dick Cheney, RIP
“the masterful Cheney agreeing to be the callow Bush’s running mate in 2000.”— Dick Cheney, RIP
“both Mr. and Mrs. Cheney were affiliated with the neocon American Enterprise Institute from 1993. AEI had long been a worthy but dull advocate of Chamber of Commerce conservatism... But it discovered that there was more donor money in agitating for war with Israel’s enemies.”— Dick Cheney, RIP
Organizations Involved
The American Enterprise Institute hosted neoconservatives like the Cheneys starting in 1993. It shifted toward agitating for war against Saddam Hussein. Donor money fueled this change, moving away from quieter conservative pursuits. [1]
▶ Supporting Quotes (1)
“neocons at AEI and elsewhere became obsessed with taking out Saddam. On Twitter on Sunday, McKay defended his plot, saying he’d substituted big oil for the neocons:”— Dick Cheney, RIP
The Foundation
Cheney explained the risks of occupying Iraq in a 1994 interview. He noted the lack of Arab allies, the volatile region, and the likelihood of Iraq breaking apart. This quote later highlighted how he knew better but proceeded anyway. His one percent doctrine underpinned the push. It treated even a 1% chance of Saddam aiding al-Qaeda with nuclear weapons as a certainty. This seemed credible after 9/11. In truth, Iraq posed no such threat, and the invasion targeted the wrong country. The assumption of a stable pro-US regime proved wrong. [1]
▶ Supporting Quotes (2)
“In a 1994 interview, Cheney explained why his administration had decided not to overthrow Saddam: Because if we’d gone to Baghdad we would have been all alone…. There would have been a U.S. occupation of Iraq. None of the Arab forces that were willing to fight with us in Kuwait were willing to invade Iraq. Once you got to Iraq and took it over, took down Saddam Hussein’s government, then what are you going to put in its place? That’s a very volatile part of the world, and if you take down the central government of Iraq, you could very easily end up seeing pieces of Iraq fly off.”— Dick Cheney, RIP
“Cheney’s unarticulated math would apparently be: If the U.S. invading Iraq reduces the chance of a nuclear bomb going off in New York and killing one million Americans by just one percent, that would, in effect, save 10,000 American lives. (U.S. fatalities in the war turned out to be around 4,500.) But of course Cheney’s war didn’t do anything to reduce the threat of nuclear terrorism, because he attacked the wrong country.”— Dick Cheney, RIP
How It Spread
Neoconservatives spread the idea through the American Enterprise Institute and the Project for the New American Century. They sent a letter to President Clinton urging Saddam's overthrow. Funding from donors shifted away from mundane conservatism and sustained this campaign. [1]
▶ Supporting Quotes (1)
“Fully aware of The Project for New American Century. And the letter they wrote to Clinton calling for overthrow of Saddam.”— Dick Cheney, RIP
Resulting Policies
Under President George W. Bush and Vice President Cheney, the US invaded Iraq in 2003. This action overthrew Saddam Hussein. It rested on false assumptions of post-invasion stability and links to terrorism threats. [1]
▶ Supporting Quotes (1)
“In 2001–2003 he connived endlessly to invade Iraq, bringing reelection in 2004, but also protracted war and financial ruin in 2008.”— Dick Cheney, RIP
Harm Caused
The invasion led to 4500 US fatalities. It contributed to financial ruin by 2008. The war dragged on and heightened terror blowback risks. It failed to reduce nuclear threats. In contrast, the 1991 decision not to invade had allowed defense cuts and a 1990s economic boom. The 2003 choice reversed that path into costly ruin. [1]
▶ Supporting Quotes (2)
“U.S. fatalities in the war turned out to be around 4,500. But of course Cheney’s war didn’t do anything to reduce the threat of nuclear terrorism, because he attacked the wrong country. If anything, it made America more at risk for blowback from the relatives of the dead.”— Dick Cheney, RIP
“With no occupation of Iraq requiring funds, in 1992 Cheney decisively slashed defense spending... Cheney’s peace dividend helped the national economy boom in the 1990s.”— Dick Cheney, RIP
Downfall
The assumption crumbled after the 2003 invasion. The war proved protracted. No weapons of mass destruction or terror links emerged. The toll reached 4500 US deaths, and the 2008 financial crisis amplified the failure. Cheney's own 1994 prediction of Iraqi fragmentation materialized. This exposed the false notions of easy stability and threat reduction. [1]
▶ Supporting Quotes (2)
“In 2001–2003 he connived endlessly to invade Iraq, bringing reelection in 2004, but also protracted war and financial ruin in 2008.”— Dick Cheney, RIP
“if you take down the central government of Iraq, you could very easily end up seeing pieces of Iraq fly off. Indeed.”— Dick Cheney, RIP
Sources
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[1]
Dick Cheney, RIPopinion