SAT/ACT Scores Are Biased Predictors
False Assumption: Standardized test scores like SAT/ACT are less predictive of college success than high school GPA and exhibit bias against disadvantaged or minority students.
Written by FARAgent on February 11, 2026
Elite college admissions offices long assumed standardized tests favored the rich and underpredicted success for underrepresented minorities and poor students. They cited test prep advantages for wealthy kids and grade inflation in high schools. This led many top schools to drop test requirements around 2020, prioritizing high school GPAs and holistic factors.
A 2025 study of Ivy-plus colleges using admissions data showed test scores predict freshman GPA far better than high school GPA, especially at the high end. Tests showed no calibration bias against students from less advantaged high schools or underrepresented minorities; those groups performed as predicted or slightly underperformed peers with equal scores. Better high schools correlated with better college outcomes beyond test predictions.
Growing evidence from the study and prior research points to grade inflation eroding GPA reliability. Critics note test-optional policies may mismatch students, but elite consensus remains contested as many schools reinstate requirements amid questions about equity and prediction accuracy.
Organizations Involved
Elite universities drove the assumption forward. Institutions like the Ivies, Stanford, MIT, Duke, and the University of Chicago relied on internal admissions data to justify test-optional policies. [1] They assumed tests underpredicted success for minority students and leaned on GPA instead, betting institutional incentives on diversity goals over predictive accuracy. [1] This approach persisted amid growing evidence that challenges the bias narrative, though the debate remains active. [1]
▶ Supporting Quotes (1)
“using college admissions data from the putative top 12 undergraduate colleges (the 8 Ivies plus Stanford, MIT, Duke, and Chicago)”— Wow, it turns out The Science shows SAT/ACT scores matter
The Foundation
The assumption took root in the belief that wealthy parents skewed SAT and ACT scores through expensive test prep, rendering them less reliable predictors of college success than high school GPA. This view held that disadvantaged and minority students underperformed on these tests due to limited resources, introducing bias. [1] High school GPA appeared more dependable as a direct gauge of academic effort, yet grade inflation soon pushed many GPAs to a ceiling of 4.0, limiting its value for distinguishing talent at elite institutions. [1] Retesting often lifted low scores through regression to the mean, but admissions processes dismissed this, sticking to notions that tests were unreliable for certain groups and favoring only the highest scores. [1] Growing evidence now suggests this foundation was flawed, as studies increasingly show tests predict outcomes without the assumed biases. [1]
▶ Supporting Quotes (3)
“if test scores are biased against a certain group of students, then those students will have a higher level of underlying academic preparation as compared to others with the same score, leading them to outperform academically once in college and judged in a system without such bias. Such might be the case if, for instance, students from advantaged backgrounds had more resources with which to prepare specifically for the SAT or ACT, inflating their test scores relative to others with the same underlying level of academic preparation but lacking these extra resources.”— Wow, it turns out The Science shows SAT/ACT scores matter
“Recent grade inflation could be eroding the information content of high school GPA most at the top, as more students are pushed up against the 4.0 cap.”— Wow, it turns out The Science shows SAT/ACT scores matter
“Goodman, Gurantz and Smith (2020) show that retaking SAT tests increases scores more for students lower in the test score distribution. The rule for college admissions committees is only to look at the highest scoring test out of multiple attempts. Regression to the mean suggests that high scores from lower scoring groups are more likely to be flukes than high scores from high scoring groups.”— Wow, it turns out The Science shows SAT/ACT scores matter
How It Spread
The idea spread through admissions committees at top schools, which adopted test-optional stances by the early 2020s. They claimed they could normalize GPAs for school quality, but often lacked detailed insights into high school variations. [1] Media outlets and elite discussions downplayed perfect SAT scorers as outliers, overlooking their strong track records in competitive fields even as credentials inflated. [1] Social pressures and funding priorities reinforced this view, sidelining dissenters who questioned the bias claims. [1] Increasingly, though, evidence points to flaws in how this propagation ignored tests' real predictive power. [1]
▶ Supporting Quotes (2)
“Presumably, if the admissions committee knows that, to take local examples from my neighborhood, a 4.0 at academically demanding Harvard-Westlake is harder to achieve than a 4.0 at more artistic Oakwood”— Wow, it turns out The Science shows SAT/ACT scores matter
“in 1991, People magazine ran profiles of five of the 9 boys (no girls) in the U.S. who scored a perfect 1600 on the SAT. A few years ago I tracked down three of the five with perfect scores. One was a tenured professor of brain science at Georgetown”— Wow, it turns out The Science shows SAT/ACT scores matter
Resulting Policies
In the wake of 2020, leading colleges implemented test-optional admissions. They prioritized high school GPA, viewing SAT and ACT scores as biased hurdles for disadvantaged applicants. [1] Decisions hinged on assumptions that GPAs better captured potential, shaping enrollment at places like the Ivies and Stanford. [1] These policies aimed to level the field but rested on a premise now facing scrutiny from emerging research. [1]
▶ Supporting Quotes (1)
“At the high end, college admission testing is much more predictive of freshman college grade point average than is high school grade point average”— Wow, it turns out The Science shows SAT/ACT scores matter
Harm Caused
Test-optional rules fueled credential inflation, with GPAs climbing to 4.40 and beyond in some high schools. This blurred distinctions among top applicants, risking mismatches between students and colleges. [1] By assuming tests were biased, institutions overlooked the stronger predictive signals from better-resourced high schools, following a pattern where advantages compounded quietly. [1] The fallout included wasted opportunities and strained resources, though growing evidence suggests these harms stemmed from a flawed assumption, even as consensus builds slowly. [1]
▶ Supporting Quotes (2)
“At my pretty good private Catholic school, two of the 181 in the Class of ‘76 had perfect 4.0 GPAs. ... These days with the 1.0 bonus just for taking Advance Placement classes, a GPA of 4.40 is common.”— Wow, it turns out The Science shows SAT/ACT scores matter
“In general, kids who go to better high schools tend to do better, not worse, than their SAT/ACT scores predict. This follows Kingsley Amis’s Lucky Jim rule: “There was no end to the ways in which nice things are nicer than nasty ones.””— Wow, it turns out The Science shows SAT/ACT scores matter
Downfall
The assumption began to crack in 2025 with a study by Friedman and colleagues. Their work revealed that SAT and ACT scores outperformed high school GPA in forecasting college grades, showing no bias against disadvantaged or underrepresented minority students. [1] Non-minority students with matching scores slightly edged out their minority peers, upending claims of systemic test bias. [1] Students from advantaged high schools met or surpassed expectations, further eroding the old narrative. [1] This emerging evidence increasingly points to the assumption's flaws, though the full shift in expert opinion is not yet complete. [1]
▶ Supporting Quotes (2)
“Figure 2a shows a non-parametric representation of our test for bias between students attending more vs. less advantaged high schools. The relationship between test SAT/ACT scores and first-year college GPA is quite similar for all students, no matter the advantage of the high school they attended.”— Wow, it turns out The Science shows SAT/ACT scores matter
“Figure 2b replicates this test for bias between URM and non-URM students; we similarly find that non-URM students slightly outperform URM students with the same SAT/ACT scores”— Wow, it turns out The Science shows SAT/ACT scores matter
Sources
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Wow, it turns out The Science shows SAT/ACT scores matterreputable_journalism