False Assumption Registry

Public Policy

96 entries in this category

• Groups Have Equal Innate Potential
  Races and the sexes have the same innate distribution of potential, making all group disparities the result of environmental forces.
  Mainstream still holds this assumption to be true despite evidence against it 26 sources
• Social Media Safe for Adolescents
  Social media is a reasonably safe consumer product for children and adolescents even when used heavily.
  Growing recognition that this assumption was false, but not yet mainstream 10 sources
• Benefits of Mass Migration Outweigh Costs
  Immigration is inherently and reliably economically positive regardless of scale, composition, or management.
  Experts are divided on whether this assumption was actually false 7 sources
• Policing Disparities Prove Discrimination
  Disproportionate police searches of Black and Latino drivers indicate intentional racial discrimination unrelated to crime rates.
  Experts are divided on whether this assumption was actually false 7 sources
• Anti-Police Activism Cuts Homicides
  Reducing police presence through anti-police activism will lower violence and homicide rates in Black communities.
  Growing recognition that this assumption was false, but not yet mainstream 6 sources
• Microaggressions Cause Mental Health Harm
  Microaggressions cause harm and have negative impacts on health and mental health, as inferred from correlations in nonexperimental studies.
  Experts are divided on whether this assumption was actually false 6 sources
• Affirmative Action Causes No Reverse Discrimination
  Civil rights protections and affirmative action do not discriminate against white people.
  Experts are divided on whether this assumption was actually false 6 sources
• Academic Hiring Favors Men
  Academic hiring, tenure decisions, and promotions systematically favor men over women.
  Experts are divided on whether this assumption was actually false 5 sources
• Human Judgment Beats Algorithms
  Holistic human intuition and gut feelings outperform structured algorithms in evaluating candidates for jobs, admissions, and awards.
  Growing recognition that this assumption was false, but not yet mainstream 5 sources
• Implicit Bias Test Predicts Discrimination
  The Implicit Association Test measures unconscious racial bias that causes discriminatory behavior.
  Experts are divided on whether this assumption was actually false 4 sources
• Anti-Bias Trainings Work
  Diversity, equity, and inclusion trainings effectively reduce bias and discriminatory behavior.
  Growing recognition that this assumption was false, but not yet mainstream 4 sources
• Formal Property Rights Required for Growth
  A well-functioning system of formal legal property rights is necessary for significant commercial activity and economic take-off.
  Growing recognition that this assumption was false, but not yet mainstream 3 sources
• Personality Outweighs Situations in Behavior
  Personality traits and personal history primarily determine human behavior more than current situations.
  Experts are divided on whether this assumption was actually false 3 sources
• Race Equals Self-Identification
  Racial categories on official forms like college applications and censuses are flexible personal self-identities rather than fixed biological ancestries.
  Experts are divided on whether this assumption was actually false 3 sources
• Places Drive Homicide Differences
  Differences in firearm homicide rates between adjacent neighborhoods are primarily caused by environmental features of places rather than differences in people.
  Experts are divided on whether this assumption was actually false 3 sources
• 2020 Homicide Surge Preceded Floyd
  The large majority of the 29% increase in homicides in 2020 occurred before George Floyd's death on May 25.
  Growing recognition that this assumption was false, but not yet mainstream 3 sources
• System 1 Causes Irrational Violence
  Human errors, biases, and violence stem from fast System 1 thinking that can be corrected by deliberate System 2 reflection.
  Experts are divided on whether this assumption was actually false 2 sources
• Foreigner Pricing is Xenophobic Discrimination
  Charging foreign tourists and non-residents higher fees for entry to national parks and cultural sites is discriminatory, xenophobic, and racist.
  Experts are divided on whether this assumption was actually false 2 sources
• Low IQ Exempts Murderers from Execution
  Murderers scoring below an IQ cutoff of 65 to 75 suffer intellectual disability that precludes the death penalty, overriding objective test scores with clinical judgment.
  Experts are divided on whether this assumption was actually false 2 sources
• Mississippi Miracle is Selection Bias
  Mississippi's rise in fourth-grade NAEP reading scores stems mainly from retaining weak third-graders rather than real reforms like phonics.
  Experts are divided on whether this assumption was actually false 2 sources
• Pretendians Are Authentic Natives
  Individuals claiming Native American or First Nations ancestry based on family stories qualify as indigenous for academic, publishing, and grant benefits.
  Growing recognition that this assumption was false, but not yet mainstream 2 sources
• Transgender Identity Warrants Leniency
  Transgender identity should mitigate sentences for attempted political assassination.
  Experts are divided on whether this assumption was actually false 2 sources
• PACE Exam Biased Against Minorities
  The scientifically developed PACE federal civil service hiring exam was fatally biased against blacks and Latinos.
  Mainstream now strongly agrees this assumption was false 2 sources
• School Spending Closes Racial Gaps
  Racial gaps in school achievement are primarily caused by lower spending on black students, and increasing spending will narrow those gaps.
  Mainstream now strongly agrees this assumption was false 2 sources
• Whites Need Proof of Anti-White Bias
  Majority-group plaintiffs like whites must show 'background circumstances' suggesting discrimination against their group to pursue Title VII claims, unlike minority plaintiffs.
  Mainstream now strongly agrees this assumption was false 2 sources
• Deporting Criminal Immigrants is Cruel
  Deporting immigrants who committed serious crimes after serving prison time is unjust if they show rehabilitation and nuance.
  Mainstream still holds this assumption to be true despite evidence against it 2 sources
• Test-Optional Admissions Select Talent
  Eliminating standardized test requirements allows colleges to better identify academically superior applicants through holistic review.
  Growing recognition that this assumption was false, but not yet mainstream 2 sources
• DEI Nonprofits Avoid Fraudulent Waste
  Corporate and government funding to DEI nonprofits reliably supports effective diversity initiatives without significant embezzlement or self-dealing.
  Growing recognition that this assumption was false, but not yet mainstream 2 sources
• Poverty Drives Urban Homicides
  Poverty, inequality, and deprivation are the root causes of high homicide rates.
  Experts are divided on whether this assumption was actually false 1 sources
• Feminization Causes Wokism
  Wokism and cancel culture emerged in the 2010s because women achieved majority representation in elite institutions and imposed innate feminine behaviors like prioritizing empathy over rationality and...
  Experts are divided on whether this assumption was actually false 1 sources
• Multiculturalism Strengthens Western Societies
  Multiculturalism and diversity are inherently beneficial and strengthening for Western societies.
  Experts are divided on whether this assumption was actually false 1 sources
• EU Beneficially Substitutes for Empire
  The European Union emerged as an economically beneficial replacement for traditional empires because empires enriched their metropole economies.
  Experts are divided on whether this assumption was actually false 1 sources
• Society Imprisons Natural Goodness
  Civilization corrupts inherently good humans, imprisoning them in oppressive chains that require elite-led liberation.
  Experts are divided on whether this assumption was actually false 1 sources
• Academia Free of Ideological Corruption
  Academia suffers no significant left-wing ideological corruption affecting theory, methods, hiring, teaching, grant-making, and publishing.
  Experts are divided on whether this assumption was actually false 1 sources
• Partisan Activism Safe for AAUP
  Academic organizations like the AAUP can engage in uncritical partisan politics using the cover of academic freedom without inviting harmful external interventions.
  Experts are divided on whether this assumption was actually false 1 sources
• Left Speech Suppression Invites No Backlash
  Progressive cancellations of faculty speech from 2015-2023 would erode norms without provoking retaliatory government punishments from the right.
  Growing recognition that this assumption was false, but not yet mainstream 1 sources
• Primitive Communism Reveals Species Being
  Foraging societies practiced a primitive communism representing humanity's natural species being, which modern communism scales up to eliminate oppression and achieve utopia.
  Mainstream now strongly agrees this assumption was false 1 sources
• Australia's Immigration Ensures Integration
  Australia's selective refugee and immigration policies reliably produce well-integrated migrants safe for critical roles like nursing.
  Experts are divided on whether this assumption was actually false 1 sources
• Dishonesty Driven by Selfish Motives
  Dishonesty in organizations stems primarily from individual selfish motives rather than group loyalty.
  Growing recognition that this assumption was false, but not yet mainstream 1 sources
• GDP Growth Signals Broad Prosperity
  Rising GDP, consumer spending, wage growth, and low unemployment accurately reflect widespread economic prosperity and public satisfaction.
  Experts are divided on whether this assumption was actually false 1 sources
• Bank Deregulation Modernizes Finance
  Deregulating banking through laws encouraging mergers and failures would consolidate and strengthen the sector for a modern economy.
  Experts are divided on whether this assumption was actually false 1 sources
• Somalis Shun Fraud Networks
  Somali immigrants manage public funds reliably without excluding non-Somalis or engaging in clan-based embezzlement.
  Experts are divided on whether this assumption was actually false 1 sources
• Food Aid Ends Somalia Famine
  Delivering food shipments protected by international peacekeepers will feed Somalia's starving children and resolve the famine.
  Mainstream now strongly agrees this assumption was false 1 sources
• Immigrants Can't Oppose Immigration
  Immigrants and their descendants have no moral right to support restrictions on future immigration.
  Experts are divided on whether this assumption was actually false 1 sources
• Israelis Aren't White
  Israelis belong in a distinct non-white MENA racial category rather than the white category.
  Experts are divided on whether this assumption was actually false 1 sources
• California Gnatcatcher is Distinct Species
  The California gnatcatcher is a separate endangered species from the black-tailed gnatcatcher warranting federal protection under the Endangered Species Act.
  Experts are divided on whether this assumption was actually false 1 sources
• Favoring Citizens in Policy is Immoral
  Immigration laws should not discriminate in favor of current American citizens over foreigners.
  Experts are divided on whether this assumption was actually false 1 sources
• Most Oppressed Are Most Talented
  The most oppressed groups, especially black women due to intersecting racism and sexism, possess the most underexploited talent and merit promotion to leadership roles.
  Growing recognition that this assumption was false, but not yet mainstream 1 sources
• Humane Immigration Reversal Causes No Chaos
  Reversing Trump-era immigration restrictions would increase border crossings modestly without provoking political crisis.
  Growing recognition that this assumption was false, but not yet mainstream 1 sources
• Relaxed Admissions Preserve Diploma Value
  Admitting larger numbers of underprepared lower-income students to UC via relaxed standards will lift them out of poverty without devaluing the UC diploma.
  Growing recognition that this assumption was false, but not yet mainstream 1 sources
• Gifted Programs Shut Out Minorities
  Gifted programs shut out high-performing Black and Latino children from low-income families due to systemic flaws that districts can fix.
  Experts are divided on whether this assumption was actually false 1 sources
• Danish Policies Echo Far Right
  Denmark's strict immigration restrictions represent a far-right hardcore approach unsuitable for moderate social democratic governments.
  Growing recognition that this assumption was false, but not yet mainstream 1 sources
• Starchitect Designs Excel in Functionality
  Avant-garde green architecture by elite starchitects like Thom Mayne creates superior, employee-friendly federal workplaces despite unconventional designs.
  Experts are divided on whether this assumption was actually false 1 sources
• Affirmative Action Trivially Boosts Blacks
  Racial preferences provide only trivial employment benefits to Black workers.
  Experts are divided on whether this assumption was actually false 1 sources
• Rifle Bans Reduce Gun Crime
  Regulating legal sales of rifles to hobbyists will significantly lower the murder rate driven by illegal handguns.
  Growing recognition that this assumption was false, but not yet mainstream 1 sources
• Distant Racism Explains Black Problems
  Current black socioeconomic troubles stem from white racism in the distant past rather than events of the last half century.
  Experts are divided on whether this assumption was actually false 1 sources
• Liberal Judging Improves Public Safety
  Activist liberal judicial reforms in criminal law and psychiatry make the world a better place without increasing violent crime rates.
  Experts are divided on whether this assumption was actually false 1 sources
• Disarming Criminals is Racist
  Taking guns off criminals at point-of-use is racist because it disproportionately affects black offenders.
  Experts are divided on whether this assumption was actually false 1 sources
• Mass Immigration Secures Liberal Votes
  High levels of immigration after 2020 would provide reliable electoral support for liberal parties because immigrants are inherently good people aligned against conservatives.
  Growing recognition that this assumption was false, but not yet mainstream 1 sources
• Modernist Architecture Fits Modern Era
  Modernist and brutalist architecture better suits contemporary federal buildings than classical styles.
  Experts are divided on whether this assumption was actually false 1 sources
• Tenants Caused South Bronx Fires
  The media and elites blamed South Bronx arson fires on welfare tenants rather than landlords torching properties for insurance.
  Experts are divided on whether this assumption was actually false 1 sources
• 80% Blacks Merit in Elite Institutions
  In elite institutions, 80% of blacks got in via merit and 20% through quotas.
  Experts are divided on whether this assumption was actually false 1 sources
• Colleges Treat Asians Like Whites
  Asian American students face no additional barriers relative to white students when applying to selective colleges.
  Growing recognition that this assumption was false, but not yet mainstream 1 sources
• BLM Policies Normalized Homicides
  Homicide rates following the BLM era and Racial Reckoning would return to pre-2014 levels without lasting increases.
  Experts are divided on whether this assumption was actually false 1 sources
• BLM Media Hype Protects Black Lives
  Intense media promotion of Black Lives Matter improves safety and reduces gun violence in black communities.
  Experts are divided on whether this assumption was actually false 1 sources
• Oppressed Have Superior Virtue
  Oppressed groups possess inherent moral superiority due to their subjection.
  Experts are divided on whether this assumption was actually false 1 sources
• Class Quotas Substitute for Race Quotas
  Class-based affirmative action will benefit blacks in elite admissions as much as race-based quotas by capturing the effects of systemic racial injustice through socioeconomic status.
  Mainstream still holds this assumption to be true despite evidence against it 1 sources
• Economics Alone Drives Urban Decline
  Population decline in major American cities stems primarily from economic shifts like factory closures and job losses rather than high murder rates.
  Growing recognition that this assumption was false, but not yet mainstream 1 sources
• Biden Handlers Were Woke-Resistant Moderates
  Biden's senior advisors were seasoned moderate Democrats who would not push extreme leftwing policies on transgenderism, immigration, crime, and equity.
  Growing recognition that this assumption was false, but not yet mainstream 1 sources
• Quotas Remedy Contracting Discrimination
  Racial and gender quotas in federal transportation contracting effectively remedy the ongoing effects of past discrimination.
  Growing recognition that this assumption was false, but not yet mainstream 1 sources
• All Humans Have Identical Dexterity
  Human populations possess uniform physical traits like finger size and manual dexterity, with no innate group differences affecting precision assembly.
  Mainstream still holds this assumption to be true despite evidence against it 1 sources
• Harvard Complies with Affirmative Action Ban
  Harvard reduced black freshman enrollment after the Supreme Court's ban on race-conscious admissions.
  Experts are divided on whether this assumption was actually false 1 sources
• Post-Apartheid South Africa Safe for Whites
  White residents and farmers in post-apartheid South Africa would live safely under black majority rule through liberal coexistence.
  Experts are divided on whether this assumption was actually false 1 sources
• Racial Reckoning Reduces Police Shootings
  The racial reckoning and intense focus on racial bias in policing after George Floyd's death would reduce fatal police shootings.
  Growing recognition that this assumption was false, but not yet mainstream 1 sources
• AI Hiring Tools Are Unbiased
  Large language models evaluate job candidates impartially without gender bias.
  Growing recognition that this assumption was false, but not yet mainstream 1 sources
• Diversity Boosts CIA Infiltration
  Racial diversity in the CIA, especially more Black agents, enhances national security by improving infiltration and blending in foreign cities like Pyongyang and Tehran.
  Experts are divided on whether this assumption was actually false 1 sources
• Poverty Prevents Human Flourishing
  Poor countries produce unhappy populations because poverty precludes individual and societal flourishing.
  Experts are divided on whether this assumption was actually false 1 sources
• Airport Profiling is Racial Discrimination
  Airport security must avoid profiling Arab or Middle Eastern-looking travelers to prevent racial discrimination and disparate impact.
  Growing recognition that this assumption was false, but not yet mainstream 1 sources
• Racial Preferences Aid Naval Academy
  Racial preferences in US Naval Academy admissions improve diversity without significantly harming merit or officer quality.
  Experts are divided on whether this assumption was actually false 1 sources
• Progressive Reforms Aid Low Performers
  Relaxing school accountability after No Child Left Behind and adopting progressive education methods would improve outcomes for low-performing students.
  Experts are divided on whether this assumption was actually false 1 sources
• Equal Pay Equalizes Dissimilar Jobs
  Women in predominantly female jobs like cooking and cleaning deserve the same pay and bonuses as men in more arduous male-dominated jobs like refuse collection to correct discrimination.
  Growing recognition that this assumption was false, but not yet mainstream 1 sources
• Free Trade Orthodoxy Prevents Harm
  Unrestricted free trade always benefits the economy without causing offshoring or strategic disadvantages.
  Experts are divided on whether this assumption was actually false 1 sources
• AP Score Inflation Closes Racial Gaps
  Inflating scoring standards on AP exams will narrow persistent racial performance gaps and prepare underrepresented students for college success.
  Growing recognition that this assumption was false, but not yet mainstream 1 sources
• Contact Benefits Isolated Tribes
  Contacting uncontacted tribes like the Sentinelese and integrating them into modern society improves their lives.
  Mainstream now strongly agrees this assumption was false 1 sources
• Environmentalism Trumps Post-1969 Progress
  After the late 1960s economic boom, further development like drilling and building was unnecessary because the economy was already good enough, prioritizing ecology over abundance.
  Experts are divided on whether this assumption was actually false 1 sources
• SAT/ACT Scores Are Biased Predictors
  Standardized test scores like SAT/ACT are less predictive of college success than high school GPA and exhibit bias against disadvantaged or minority students.
  Growing recognition that this assumption was false, but not yet mainstream 1 sources
• Rare Earths Warrant Geopolitical Focus
  Rare earth elements are scarce enough to justify intense geopolitical competition, foreign policy maneuvers, and massive investments due to their critical role in green technologies.
  Growing recognition that this assumption was false, but not yet mainstream 1 sources
• Federal Cuts Like Twitter Layoffs
  Drastic staff reductions in federal agencies succeed the same way as in private companies like Twitter.
  Experts are divided on whether this assumption was actually false 1 sources
• Treehouses Require Dwelling Permits
  Small backyard treehouses must obtain building permits equivalent to those for single-family dwellings, including architectural plans and geological reports.
  Mainstream now strongly agrees this assumption was false 1 sources
• Mass Firings Reform NIH Effectively
  Indiscriminate firing of thousands of NIH researchers and drastic funding cuts eliminate waste and wokeness without destroying biomedical excellence.
  Growing recognition that this assumption was false, but not yet mainstream 1 sources
• Social Equity Cannabis Licenses Empower Ex-Offenders
  Preferential cannabis retail licenses and funding for people previously prosecuted for marijuana offenses will create successful flagship businesses and recompense historical wrongs from the drug war.
  Growing recognition that this assumption was false, but not yet mainstream 1 sources
• Greenland Economically Benefits Denmark
  Sovereignty over Greenland provides Denmark with economic benefits outweighing the massive ongoing subsidies required to sustain it.
  Mainstream now strongly agrees this assumption was false 1 sources
• DEI Advances Unqualified Black Women
  DEI programs legitimately provide jobs and promotions to qualified women and minorities, especially black women, as a top priority to combat discrimination.
  Growing recognition that this assumption was false, but not yet mainstream 1 sources
• Parents Primarily Shape Children
  Children turn out the way they do primarily because of their parents' child-rearing styles.
  Mainstream now strongly agrees this assumption was false 1 sources
• Iraq Had WMDs and Al-Qaeda Ties
  Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction and Saddam Hussein supported al-Qaeda.
  Mainstream now strongly agrees this assumption was false 1 sources
• Gender Pay Gap Proves Discrimination
  Women earn substantially less than men due to workplace discrimination rather than career choices and job differences.
  Growing recognition that this assumption was false, but not yet mainstream 1 sources