Waymo Cars 91-96% Safer Than Humans
False Assumption: Waymo self-driving cars cause 91 percent fewer serious crashes and 96 percent fewer injury crashes at intersections than human drivers on the same roads.
Written by FARAgent on February 10, 2026
Waymo released safety data from nearly 100 million driverless miles in four American cities through June 2025. Neurosurgeon Jonathan Slotkin analyzed the data for weeks. He published an opinion piece in the New York Times claiming impressive results: 91 percent fewer serious-injury-or-worse crashes, 80 percent fewer injury crashes overall, and 96 percent fewer at intersections compared to humans.
Slotkin called the data clear and urged changing course on self-driving cars. He noted watching hundreds of Waymo vehicles on Venice Boulevard without blunders. Yet his wife reported a near-miss with a Waymo nearly hitting her car door on a side street.
Sailer questions if the data represents a best-case scenario as of 2025. Critics highlight potential limits in the comparison to human drivers on the same roads. Mounting questions arise about generalizability beyond select cities and conditions.
People Involved
- Jonathan Slotkin, a neurosurgeon, spent weeks poring over Waymo's safety data. He called it impressive in a New York Times op-ed. He pushed for policy shifts on self-driving cars, acting in good faith. [1]
- Steve Sailer, an analyst, played the skeptic. He questioned the bold safety claims in his own article. [1]
▶ Supporting Quotes (2)
“Dr. Slotkin is a neurosurgeon. … Self-driving car company Waymo recently released data covering nearly 100 million driverless miles in four American cities through June 2025, the biggest trove of information released so far about safety. I spent weeks analyzing the data. The results were impressive.”— Are Waymos Truly 91% to 96% Safer?
“Are Waymos Truly 91% to 96% Safer? Or is the data a best case scenario as of 2025?”— Are Waymos Truly 91% to 96% Safer?
Organizations Involved
Waymo put out safety numbers from nearly 100 million driverless miles. The company framed this as proof of superiority over human drivers. [1] The New York Times ran Slotkin's op-ed. It touted the data as reason to rethink self-driving car rules. [1]
▶ Supporting Quotes (2)
“Self-driving car company Waymo recently released data covering nearly 100 million driverless miles in four American cities through June 2025, the biggest trove of information released so far about safety.”— Are Waymos Truly 91% to 96% Safer?
“From the New York Times opinion section: The Data on Self-Driving Cars Is Clear. We Have to Change Course. Dec. 2, 2025 By Jonathan Slotkin”— Are Waymos Truly 91% to 96% Safer?
The Foundation
Waymo's figures came from 100 million miles in four cities. This made the data look solid, the largest set shared so far. It backed claims of 91 to 96 percent fewer crashes than humans. [1] Slotkin watched Waymos on Venice Boulevard and saw no errors. This fueled belief in their near-perfect runs. Yet his own story of a close call hinted at flaws. Critics now argue the data might show only ideal conditions, lacking wider checks. [1]
▶ Supporting Quotes (2)
“When compared to human drivers on the same roads, Waymo’s self-driving cars were involved in 91 percent fewer serious-injury-or-worse crashes and 80 percent fewer crashes causing any injury. It showed a 96 percent lower rate of injury-causing crashes at intersections”— Are Waymos Truly 91% to 96% Safer?
“I’ve watched hundreds of Waymo robot taxis drive by on 6-lane Venice Blvd. in West Los Angeles over the last year. I’ve never seen one blunder.”— Are Waymos Truly 91% to 96% Safer?
How It Spread
The idea gained traction in 2025 through a New York Times opinion piece. Slotkin, the neurosurgeon, broke down the data there. He presented it as strong evidence for Waymo's edge. [1]
▶ Supporting Quotes (1)
“From the New York Times opinion section: The Data on Self-Driving Cars Is Clear. We Have to Change Course.”— Are Waymos Truly 91% to 96% Safer?
Resulting Policies
Slotkin called for a shift in self-driving car rules. He based this on Waymo's safety stats. He urged faster deployment or lighter regulations. [1]
▶ Supporting Quotes (1)
“The Data on Self-Driving Cars Is Clear. We Have to Change Course.”— Are Waymos Truly 91% to 96% Safer?
Harm Caused
One incident stood out on a side street. A Waymo came close to ripping off Sailer's wife's car door as she got out. It highlighted potential risks amid the safety hype. [1]
▶ Supporting Quotes (1)
“(On the other hand, my wife had a near-miss with a Waymo nearly taking her door off as she was getting out of her car on a side street.)”— Are Waymos Truly 91% to 96% Safer?
Downfall
Critics like Sailer began poking holes in 2025. He suggested the data captured a best-case setup, not true safety across the board. Mounting evidence challenges the full claims, with growing questions about broader validity. The debate continues, as experts split on what the numbers really mean. [1]
▶ Supporting Quotes (1)
“Are Waymos Truly 91% to 96% Safer? Or is the data a best case scenario as of 2025?”— Are Waymos Truly 91% to 96% Safer?
Sources
- [1]