Pre-Colonial Africa Political Success
False Assumption: Pre-colonial Africa's extreme political decentralization was a deliberate success story organized to prevent centralization.
Written by FARAgent on February 10, 2026
In December 2025, economists Soeren J. Henn and James A. Robinson published a paper titled 'Africa as a Success Story: Political Organization in Pre-Colonial Africa.' They documented roughly 45,000 independent polities across Africa in 1880. These polities averaged 2,000 to 3,000 people each amid a sub-Saharan population of 90 to 135 million. At most 2% qualified as states.
Robinson and Henn argued African societies deliberately structured themselves to block centralization. They claimed the economy served these political goals. This built on Robinson's recent Nobel for institutional theories explaining why places like the USA prospered over Haiti through inclusive versus extractive institutions. The paper implied Africa's issues started with white colonization after 1880.
Steve Sailer questioned why no one conquered these tiny polities despite Africa's iron-age farmers and herdsmen. Ambitious men elsewhere formed empires from similar bases over 10,000 years. Critics highlight the rarity of kingdoms like Buganda or Zulu expansions. Mounting questions challenge the narrative of deliberate success.
People Involved
- In 2025, James A.
- Robinson, a Nobel laureate economist, co-authored a paper with Soeren J. Henn that promoted the idea of pre-colonial Africa's decentralization as a deliberate success. [1]
- Robinson tied this to his earlier work on institutions, which had earned him the 2024 Nobel Prize alongside Daron Acemoglu and Simon Johnson. [1] Those theories explained wealth gaps, like the one between the United States and Haiti, through inclusive institutions. [1] Henn advanced the view that African societies had intentionally blocked centralization. [1] Robinson acted as a good faith proponent, building on his established ideas.
▶ Supporting Quotes (3)
“Robinson’s now back with a paper explaining that Africa was actually a success story until those nasty white people showed up after 1880.”— Why'd Nobody Bother Conquering Africa?
“Africa as a Success Story: Political Organization in Pre-Colonial Africa Soeren J. Henn, James A. Robinson”— Why'd Nobody Bother Conquering Africa?
“Nobel laureates James A. Robinson, Daron Acemoglu, and Simon Johnson for their theories that some countries (e.g., USA) are richer than other countries (e.g., Haiti) because the former have inclusive and the latter extractive institutions.”— Why'd Nobody Bother Conquering Africa?
The Foundation
The assumption took root in the mid-2020s, drawing on estimates of 45,000 independent polities in Africa by 1880. [1] These rarely aligned with ethnic lines, and the average polity had just 2,000 to 3,000 people. [1] Proponents argued that societies had organized deliberately to prevent centralization, keeping economies in check. [1] This view gained traction through systematic documentation, framing tiny villages as a form of success. [1] It overlooked why conquest incentives drove state formation elsewhere. [1] The paper noted the rarity of empires, citing examples like the Zulus or Menelik's Ethiopia as exceptions. [1] Yet it downplayed how farmers in places like Egypt or Mesopotamia had built states over millennia. [1] The idea suggested pre-colonial Africa thrived until Europeans disrupted it.
▶ Supporting Quotes (3)
“calculating that in 1880 there were probably 45,000 independent polities which were rarely organized on ethnic lines.”— Why'd Nobody Bother Conquering Africa?
“We advance a new argument for this extreme political decentralization positing that African societies were deliberately organized to stop centralization emerging. In this they were successful. We point out some key aspects of African societies that helped them to manage this equilibrium. We also emphasize how the organization of the economy was subservient to these political goals.”— Why'd Nobody Bother Conquering Africa?
“there were basically no empires in Africa in 1880, although Menelik expanded his holdings in Ethiopia over the course of the decade and had himself crowned Emperor of Ethiopia in 1889. Likewise, the Zulus had conquered a lot of territory in southeastern Africa in the early 19th Century.”— Why'd Nobody Bother Conquering Africa?
How It Spread
The notion spread through academic channels after the 2025 paper's release. [1] Robinson's Nobel prestige from his institutional theories boosted its credibility. [1] Estimates of polity numbers documented the decentralization, presenting Africa as a political success story. [1] Funding and academic incentives likely sustained the discussion, as the award amplified its reach in economics circles.
▶ Supporting Quotes (2)
“How do you win the Econ Nobel? Try irritating Steve Sailer no end.”— Why'd Nobody Bother Conquering Africa?
“We provide an overview of the explanations for the relative lack of state formation historically in Africa. In doing so we systematically document for the first time the extent to which Africa was politically decentralized”— Why'd Nobody Bother Conquering Africa?
Harm Caused
Critics argue that portraying this decentralization as a success hid deeper questions. [1] It may have obscured why no one conquered those 45,000 tiny polities over time. [1] This could mislead development economics, steering focus away from conquest patterns seen elsewhere. [1] The framing risked oversimplifying Africa's history, potentially affecting policy debates.
▶ Supporting Quotes (1)
“Why so few larger polities? Why didn’t anybody bother conquering a whole bunch of tiny polities?”— Why'd Nobody Bother Conquering Africa?
Downfall
By the late 2020s, mounting evidence began to challenge the assumption. [1] Critiques pointed to the tiny size of these polities, built on an iron-age base without the conquests that marked Egypt or Mesopotamia. [1] Growing questions surrounded the lack of internal or external takeovers, despite the presence of farmers and herdsmen who formed empires in other regions. [1] Rare kingdoms like Buganda stood out as anomalies. [1] Dissenters argued this rarity indicated flaws in the success narrative, though the debate remains open.
▶ Supporting Quotes (2)
“If there really were 45,000 polities, then we are talking about a mean population per political sovereignty of 2,000 to 3,000 people, which is awfully small. At most 2% of these could be classified as states.”— Why'd Nobody Bother Conquering Africa?
“Generally speaking, over the last 10,000 years, conquering farmers has paid off well enough that ambitious men have often tried it. Why in Egypt or Mesopotamia but not in Africa?”— Why'd Nobody Bother Conquering Africa?
Sources
- [1]