Mississippi Miracle is Selection Bias
False Assumption: Mississippi's rise in fourth-grade NAEP reading scores stems mainly from retaining weak third-graders rather than real reforms like phonics.
Written by FARAgent on February 10, 2026
Mississippi's education system long ranked near the bottom in national assessments. In 2013, the state passed reforms emphasizing phonics and third-grade retention for poor readers. By 2019, fourth-grade NAEP reading scores had jumped from 49th to 8th place. Education researcher Noah Spencer hailed this in a 2024 article as a genuine turnaround, driven by low-cost changes. Economist Harry Anthony Patrinos endorsed it as legitimate. The narrative gained traction, countering old stereotypes about low expectations in black-majority states.
Skeptics soon questioned the miracle. Statistician Andrew Gelman, along with Howard Wainer, Irina Grabovsky, and Daniel Robinson, argued the gains stemmed from selection bias. They pointed to the retention policy, which held back weak third-graders before they reached fourth-grade testing. Pre-2013, most advanced regardless of skill; afterward, only proficient readers moved up. Eighth-grade scores, dropping to 42nd, seemed to support this view, as retained students might inflate earlier metrics without lasting effects.
The debate remains hotly contested. Critics argue mounting evidence shows bias, not true progress, risking discouragement of reforms in states like New Mexico, which lag far behind. Yet adjusted analyses suggest real improvements persist, even accounting for demographics. As of 2025 discussions on sites like SteveSailer.Net, experts split on whether the rise reflects clever policy or statistical sleight of hand.
People Involved
- Andrew Gelman, a statistics professor at Columbia, voiced doubts about the Mississippi Miracle in his blog. He highlighted a paper that pointed to selection bias from retention policies. [1]
- Howard Wainer, Irina Grabovsky, and Daniel Robinson joined the skeptics. These statisticians argued that holding back weak third-graders inflated fourth-grade scores. [1]
- On the other side, Noah Spencer pushed the miracle story in a 2024 article. He called the turnaround genuine. [1]
- Harry Anthony Patrinos backed it too. He praised Mississippi as a model for literacy reforms worldwide. [1]
▶ Supporting Quotes (4)
“Andrew Gelman, professor of statistics at Columbia, blogs: How much of “Mississippi’s education miracle” is an artifact of selection bias?”— Is the Mississippi Miracle Really the Mississippi Mirage?
“Howard Wainer, Irina Grabovsky, and Daniel Robinson write: We were sceptical when we read Noah Spencer’s 2024 article about “Mississippi’s education miracle””— Is the Mississippi Miracle Really the Mississippi Mirage?
“We were sceptical when we read Noah Spencer’s 2024 article about “Mississippi’s education miracle” which “>education economics expert Harry Anthony Patrinos called a “model for global literacy reform.”— Is the Mississippi Miracle Really the Mississippi Mirage?
“education economics expert Harry Anthony Patrinos called a “model for global literacy reform.”— Is the Mississippi Miracle Really the Mississippi Mirage?
Organizations Involved
The Mississippi Department of Education touted the gains. Officials linked them to 2013 reforms and issued boastful press releases. [1] The Urban Institute stepped in with demographic adjustments. Their work showed Mississippi leading in performance, pushing back against mirage claims. [1] Still, the Mississippi Department of Education pressed on with reforms. They enforced them and credited the score jumps, challenging the selection bias view. [2]
▶ Supporting Quotes (3)
“which its officials attribute to its ambitious 2013 reform that included phonics and holding back the worst students to repeat third grade.”— Is the Mississippi Miracle Really the Mississippi Mirage?
“From the Urban Institute: States’ Demographically Adjusted Performance on the 2024 National Assessment of Educational Progress”— Is the Mississippi Miracle Really the Mississippi Mirage?
“The Mississippi Department of Education’s press release boasts of Mississippi’s striking improvement since the legislature passed a number of laws in 2013 (modeled on Florida’s 2002 reforms) to get serious about teaching reading and math.”— NAEP Test Scores: Mississippi Miracle vs. Oregon Outage
The Foundation
The retention policy gained traction as an explanation for bias. Before 2013, third-graders moved up no matter their reading skills, which dragged down fourth-grade averages. [1] Critics noted that modest funding, like $111 per pupil, seemed too small to spark real change. [1] Mississippi's leap in NAEP fourth-grade reading, from 49th to 8th, fueled miracle claims. Yet sub-beliefs overlooked demographic baselines and consistency across subjects. [1] Eighth-grade reading scores fell to 42nd, appearing to support the bias idea. But this ignored adjusted rankings where Mississippi led overall. [1] The notion that retention just picked better test-takers dismissed the extra instruction time. Students got more reading help before fourth grade, when they shift to reading to learn. [2] Raw NAEP scores reinforced doubts about demographics in states like Mississippi. They suggested policy tweaks could not beat student composition. [2]
▶ Supporting Quotes (5)
“After 2013, only those students who did well enough in reading moved on to the fourth grade and took the NAEP fourth-grade reading test.”— Is the Mississippi Miracle Really the Mississippi Mirage?
“Based on the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) fourth-grade literacy test scores, the state moved from a 49th place ranking in 2013 to the top 20 in 2023. The latest 2024 scores revealed that Mississippi is now tied for 8th place”— Is the Mississippi Miracle Really the Mississippi Mirage?
“for the eighth-grade literacy test, the state’s rank dropped to a tie for 42nd place!”— Is the Mississippi Miracle Really the Mississippi Mirage?
“holding back third-graders who haven’t fully learned to read for a fourth year of learning to read instruction makes more sense than shoving them immediately into grade 4 where they will be increasingly lost.”— NAEP Test Scores: Mississippi Miracle vs. Oregon Outage
“it’s tricky to figure out which states are doing best at schooling their students, such as they are.”— NAEP Test Scores: Mississippi Miracle vs. Oregon Outage
How It Spread
Skepticism took root in academic blogs. Statisticians and pundits questioned the miracle. They saw it as a break from usual education patterns. [1] The debate spread through these channels, with critics highlighting deviations that hinted at selection effects. [1]
▶ Supporting Quotes (1)
“Such a dramatic turnaround clearly marks a sharp deviation from what we expect given the laws of nature/education generated by a century of empirical experience.”— Is the Mississippi Miracle Really the Mississippi Mirage?
Resulting Policies
Mississippi passed the Literacy-Based Promotion Act in 2013. It mandated retention for third-graders who failed reading tests and required phonics teaching. [1] The state enacted broader laws that year. By 2015, the third-grade retention policy kicked in. Despite doubts, these steps lifted test scores. [2]
▶ Supporting Quotes (2)
“the “intervention” that is claimed to be the cause of the improvement, the Literacy-Based Promotion Act (LBPA), which started in 2013”— Is the Mississippi Miracle Really the Mississippi Mirage?
“Mississippi’s rise seems to be related to education reform laws passed in 2013, following the Republicans taking control of the governorship, the state senate, and the state lower legislature in 2012... making Mississippi third graders pass a reading test before promoting them to 4th grade (when some of them would take the NAEP), which they started doing in 2015.”— NAEP Test Scores: Mississippi Miracle vs. Oregon Outage
Harm Caused
Skepticism carried risks. It might deter other states from trying similar cheap reforms, even as adjusted rankings put Mississippi at the top. [1] Low expectations lingered for states with large black populations. The old 'Thank God for Mississippi' mindset delayed changes until 2013. [1] Places that skipped reforms suffered. New Mexico ranked last in unadjusted scores, 25 points behind leaders, with weak education results. [2] Oregon fared worst in adjusted terms despite favorable demographics. Its eighth-grade math trailed the national average by four points in 2024, after leading by eight in 2000. Self-destructive policies took a toll. [2]
▶ Supporting Quotes (4)
“if such small expenditures can make a visible difference in student performance it truly is a miracle – a Mississippi version of St. John’s loaves and fishes.”— Is the Mississippi Miracle Really the Mississippi Mirage?
“When I started following educational statistics in 1972, the classic joke was that the state motto of Alabama (or Louisiana or wherever was 49th in the various rankings) was, “Thank God for Mississippi!””— Is the Mississippi Miracle Really the Mississippi Mirage?
“New Mexico does quite badly in last place. The 25 point difference between Massachusetts and New Mexico is 5/7th of a (stylized) standard deviation, or 0.71 z.”— NAEP Test Scores: Mississippi Miracle vs. Oregon Outage
“Worst on the demographically adjusted list is Oregon, which has perhaps the highest percentage of truly Woke crazies in the country. Unadjusted, Oregon outscored the country on 8th grade math by 8 points in 2000, but trailed by 4 points in 2024.”— NAEP Test Scores: Mississippi Miracle vs. Oregon Outage
Downfall
Critics argue the selection bias assumption faces growing questions. The Urban Institute's demographic adjustments ranked Mississippi first in the 2024 NAEP average. This exposed bias claims as potentially overstated, especially with gains in math and eighth grade. [1] Corrections to skeptic arguments showed fourth-grade math tying for 13th and eighth-grade math at 34th. These were improvements over past lows, challenging the pure selection story. [1] Mississippi's fourth-grade reading scores climbed sharply after retention. They went from 12 points below the national average to five above in 2024. [2] Adjusted rankings again placed Mississippi first that year. Mounting evidence suggests reforms drove real success. [2] Black fourth-graders in Mississippi scored eight points above the national black average in 2024 reading. This broke through expected demographic barriers, critics say. [2]
▶ Supporting Quotes (5)
“The Mississippi Miracle is number 1 after adjusting for its unpromising demographics”— Is the Mississippi Miracle Really the Mississippi Mirage?
“According the federal NAEP report, Mississippi 4th graders were tied for 13th in the country in 2024 math. The relatively rural and poor state’s 8th graders were tied for 34th in math”— Is the Mississippi Miracle Really the Mississippi Mirage?
“You can see the spectacular effect on unadjusted 4th grade reading test scores in this graph, with Mississippi’s 4th grade reading scores going from 12 points below the national average to 5 points above.”— NAEP Test Scores: Mississippi Miracle vs. Oregon Outage
“The Mississippi Miracle is number 1 after adjusting for its unpromising demographics, with comparable Louisiana in second.”— NAEP Test Scores: Mississippi Miracle vs. Oregon Outage
“The 2024 reading test scores for Mississippi’s curated black 4th graders are impressive: 8 points above national black average.”— NAEP Test Scores: Mississippi Miracle vs. Oregon Outage
Sources
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[1]
Is the Mississippi Miracle Really the Mississippi Mirage?reputable_journalism
- [2]