False Assumption Registry


Human Judgment Beats Algorithms


False Assumption: Holistic human intuition and gut feelings outperform structured algorithms in evaluating candidates for jobs, admissions, and awards.

Written by FARAgent on February 11, 2026

For decades, experts in psychology and hiring trusted holistic human judgment over algorithms. They argued that intuition and gut feelings captured the "whole person" in evaluations for jobs, admissions, and awards. This view took root in the mid-20th century, bolstered by studies on unstructured interviews that seemed to predict performance. Professionals relied on personal experience, dismissing structured methods as rigid and incomplete. By the 2000s, this assumption shaped policies in academia, corporations, and public sectors, where human evaluators sifted through applications with little standardization.

Challenges emerged in the 2010s and 2020s as researchers tested these methods. Michael Inzlicht, a University of Toronto psychology professor, reviewed 200 job applications in 2023 and found his rankings inconsistent; he later admitted, "I have no idea if I did it right." Similar experiments revealed human biases favoring superficial traits, leading to unfair outcomes and poorer predictions than algorithms. In systems like Canada's refugee claims, human processing caused four-year backlogs and overlooked qualified cases. Princeton computer scientists Arvind Narayanan and Sayash Kapoor, in their 2024 book AI Snake Oil, highlighted how algorithms, despite flaws, often outperformed erratic human intuition.

Growing evidence now suggests this faith in human judgment was flawed. Critics point to studies showing algorithms reduce inconsistencies and improve fairness, though humans still dominate many fields. The debate continues, with some experts defending intuition while others push for hybrid approaches.

Status: Growing recognition that this assumption was false, but not yet mainstream
Universities like the University of Toronto stuck with human evaluators for admissions, fellowships, and awards. They promoted holistic reviews and resisted algorithms. This approach let them claim expertise while ignoring data on inconsistencies. [1][3] Hiring committees in these institutions enforced the same methods. They profited from the perception of thoughtful judgment, even as evidence mounted against it. Social media backlash hit colleagues who suggested AI tools, reinforcing the status quo. [2] Award panels followed suit, relying on gut calls instead of structured systems. Institutional incentives kept the practice alive, despite the emerging flaws. [1]
Supporting Quotes (3)
“Take graduate admissions. Instead of relying on unstructured interviews where we decide based on whether we like someone or deem them a good fit, we could create a decision rule.”— I Just Evaluated 200 Applications and I Have No Idea If I Did It Right
“I usually get a feeling about a paper or candidate and then just go on vibes. I’ve been doing this for decades, and every time I finish, I’m left with the nagging feeling that I’ve made tons of mistakes or that I have been unfair.”— I Just Evaluated 200 Applications and I Have No Idea If I Did It Right
“It’s fashionable these days to be anti-AI. If you don’t believe me, check out this social media mob that tore into my University of Toronto colleague for having the audacity to promote an AI-powered educational tool.”— I Just Evaluated 200 Applications and I Have No Idea If I Did It Right

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