BLM Policies Normalized Homicides
False Assumption: Homicide rates following the BLM era and Racial Reckoning would return to pre-2014 levels without lasting increases.
Written by FARAgent on February 10, 2026
The Black Lives Matter movement emerged in August 2014 amid Ferguson unrest. Homicide rates began climbing over the next decade. George Floyd's death in May 2020 ignited the Racial Reckoning. Protests spread. Calls to reform policing followed.
Homicides spiked in 2020 and 2021. Rates fell in 2022, then dropped more in 2023 and 2024. Commentators hailed the declines as great news. Trends varied by location but pointed downward overall.
CDC data for 2024 shows the overall homicide rate up 21% from 2014. Black rates stand 28% higher than pre-BLM. Hispanic rates rose 22% over the decade. Critics link persistent elevations to BLM-era changes. Mainstream voices emphasize recovery. Questions mount about long-term effects.
People Involved
- In the wake of rising homicide rates during the BLM era, some commentators pushed a narrative of recovery.
- Matthew Yglesias looked at the CDC's 2024 data and called it '30 months of great news on falling crime,' framing the declines as a full return to normal despite the numbers telling a different story. [1]
- Jeff Asher echoed this optimism, declaring that 2025 was shaping up to have the lowest murder rate on record, even as baselines remained elevated from pre-2014 levels. [1] These voices championed the idea that the spikes were temporary, though critics now question whether such confidence overlooked lasting shifts.
▶ Supporting Quotes (2)
“Matthew Yglesias frames the recent data as good news, which it is: ... '30 months of great news on falling crime'”— CDC: Black Homicide Rate Still Up 28% Since Dawn of BLM Era
“Jeff Asher wrote back in May that 2025 was on pace to be perhaps the lowest murder rate year on record.”— CDC: Black Homicide Rate Still Up 28% Since Dawn of BLM Era
Organizations Involved
The organization Black Lives Matter took root in August 2014 amid the Ferguson unrest, fueling the 2020 Racial Reckoning with calls for policing changes that some link to homicide trends. [1] Meanwhile, the CDC tracked the fallout, releasing its 2024 homicide victimization data after a six-month delay; the figures showed rates still higher than before the BLM era, prompting growing questions about the long-term effects of those reforms. [1] Institutions like these shaped the conversation, with Black Lives Matter driving narratives that influenced policy, while the CDC provided the raw numbers that now challenge assumptions of a quick rebound.
▶ Supporting Quotes (2)
“when the Black Lives Matter movement emerged in August 2014 with Ferguson”— CDC: Black Homicide Rate Still Up 28% Since Dawn of BLM Era
“The CDC has finally released its homicide victimization death counts for 2024. (It lags release of death data for potentially legally fraught categories like homicides, suicides, and motor vehicle accidents by 6 months to give coroners plenty of time to make up their minds.)”— CDC: Black Homicide Rate Still Up 28% Since Dawn of BLM Era
How It Spread
The idea that homicide rates would soon drop back to pre-2014 norms spread through media channels starting around 2022. Commentators hailed the declines from peak levels as unqualified successes, often labeling them 'great news' without much reference to the old baselines. [1] This framing gained traction in public discourse, downplaying the persistent elevations and fostering a sense of resolution, even as critics argue it masked deeper, ongoing issues in violence trends.
▶ Supporting Quotes (1)
“Matthew Yglesias frames the recent data as good news, which it is: ... Things are getting way better, but some big unanswered questions remain”— CDC: Black Homicide Rate Still Up 28% Since Dawn of BLM Era
Resulting Policies
George Floyd's death in 2020 ignited the Racial Reckoning, leading to widespread policing reforms rooted in BLM narratives. [1] Institutions adopted these changes, from reduced enforcement to shifts in community oversight, all built on the belief that homicide spikes would prove fleeting. [1] As the years passed, mounting evidence challenges whether these policies contributed to a new normal in violence, with rates failing to fully revert despite the optimism.
▶ Supporting Quotes (1)
“before George Floyd’s May 2020 death launched the disastrous Racial Reckoning”— CDC: Black Homicide Rate Still Up 28% Since Dawn of BLM Era
Harm Caused
By 2024, black homicide fatalities remained 28% above the pre-BLM levels of 2014, with rates only retreating to those seen in 2019. [1] The overall U.S. homicide death rate sat 21% higher than in the Ferguson era, while Hispanic rates had climbed 22% over the decade. [1] White rates edged up 6% since 2014, and American Indian rates surged 42%, illustrating a broad toll from the sustained violence that critics tie to the era's shifts. [1] These figures raise growing questions about the human cost of assuming a swift return to earlier safety levels.
▶ Supporting Quotes (3)
“Black fatalities due to homicides were 28% higher last year than before BLM got rolling, but at least are finally back down to where they were in 2019.”— CDC: Black Homicide Rate Still Up 28% Since Dawn of BLM Era
“The overall homicide rate for all races dropped sharply in 2024, but is still up 21% overall since Ferguson. ... The Hispanic homicide death rate fell dramatically from the Housing Bubble to 2014, but is now up 22% over the last decade”— CDC: Black Homicide Rate Still Up 28% Since Dawn of BLM Era
“The white homicide rate is up 6% since 2014, but down 2% since 2019. I didn’t do a graph of American Indians, but they are not doing well: homicides are up 42% since 2014”— CDC: Black Homicide Rate Still Up 28% Since Dawn of BLM Era
Downfall
The CDC unveiled its 2024 data in mid-2025, revealing that homicide rates had not fallen back to pre-BLM baselines. [1] Black rates lingered 28% higher than in 2014, and the national figure stood 21% elevated, fueling mounting questions about the lasting impact of the era's policies. [1] Critics argue this evidence undermines the recovery narrative, though the debate continues amid calls for more scrutiny of what sustained the increases.
▶ Supporting Quotes (1)
“The homicide death rate for the total U.S. population was still 21% higher in 2024 than in 2014, when the Black Lives Matter movement emerged in August 2014 with Ferguson”— CDC: Black Homicide Rate Still Up 28% Since Dawn of BLM Era
Sources
-
[1]
CDC: Black Homicide Rate Still Up 28% Since Dawn of BLM Erareputable_journalism