2020 Homicide Surge Preceded Floyd
False Assumption: The large majority of the 29% increase in homicides in 2020 occurred before George Floyd's death on May 25.
Written by FARAgent on February 10, 2026
In 2020, homicides in the United States rose by 29 percent over the previous year. George Floyd died on May 25, sparking Black Lives Matter protests and debates over policing. Soon after, New York Times reporters Steven Rich, Tim Arango, and Nicholas Bogel-Burroughs, along with graphics designer Daniel Wood, published a graph that plotted the full year's homicides as if they all occurred on January 1. They added a vertical line for May 25, placed between data points for 2019 and 2020, which suggested that the bulk of the surge happened before Floyd's death. This visual reinforced the view that police pullbacks during protests had little role in the violence.
Steve Sailer, a journalist, spotted the issue early. He had tracked homicide trends and argued that the real spike came after May 25, linked to the protests and reduced policing. In emails and writings, including a 2025 message to the Times, he called the graph misleading. Critics later pointed out how the annual aggregation hid monthly patterns, downplaying a post-Floyd wave of killings and traffic deaths, especially among Black Americans. The assumption shaped public policy discussions, with some seeing it as minimizing the costs of the unrest.
Growing evidence now suggests the assumption was flawed. Analysts, reviewing CDC data and finer-grained homicide records, increasingly recognize that the surge intensified after May 25. The debate continues, but more experts question the graph's implications and the narrative it supported.
People Involved
- In the spring of 2025, Steve Sailer spotted trouble in a New York Times graph. He emailed the newspaper on May 26 with CDC data that showed the graph's error in timing the 2020 homicide surge. [1] Sailer had warned about such trends earlier. He wrote on the topic in Taki's Magazine the week before. [3]
- On the other side, Steven Rich, Tim Arango, and Nicholas Bogel-Burroughs authored the May 24 Times article that included the graph. They presented it as fact. [1]
- Daniel Wood designed the graphic. He plotted the 2020 homicides as if they all happened at the year's start. [1]
▶ Supporting Quotes (4)
“So, I sent the following email to the New York Times calling for a correction on May 26, 2025.”— The NYT Corrected Its Ludicrous George Floyd Homicide Graph ...
“By Steven Rich, Tim Arango, and Nicholas Bogel-Burroughs, Graphics by Daniel Wood May 24, 2025”— The NYT Corrected Its Ludicrous George Floyd Homicide Graph ...
“Your graphic artist made the obvious mistake of creating a line graph that attributes all homicides of 2020 to January 1, 2020, so the vertical dashed line for Floyd's death follows rather than precedes the big surge.”— The NYT Corrected Its Ludicrous George Floyd Homicide Graph ...
“on a topic I wrote about far more lucidly in Taki’s Magazine last week?”— Happy 5th Anniversary of the Racial Reckoning
Organizations Involved
The New York Times stood at the center of the story. It published the graph in 2025 to mark the anniversary of George Floyd's death. The graphic misplaced a vertical line, suggesting the homicide surge came before May 25, 2020. [3] The Times corrected the online version quietly, without public notice or changes to the text. [1] It continued to avoid showing the post-Floyd surge, even years later. [3] Meanwhile, the CDC provided data that told a different tale. Its weekly figures showed black homicides spiking after Floyd's death and continuing into 2024. [1]
▶ Supporting Quotes (4)
“So, the New York Times then responded by slightly correcting the graph in its online archives: Well, that’s still not pointing out to its 11 million paying subscribers what happened in 2020, but at least it’s no longer actively deluding them. But the newspaper has not issued a Correction.”— The NYT Corrected Its Ludicrous George Floyd Homicide Graph ...
“according to CDC WONDER mortality data, most of the increase happened in the weeks immediately after his death during the time of the media-celebrated "mostly peaceful protests" as the police retreated to the donut shop.”— The NYT Corrected Its Ludicrous George Floyd Homicide Graph ...
“What’s wrong with this fifth anniversary George Floyd celebration graph in the New York Times”— Happy 5th Anniversary of the Racial Reckoning
“But the New York Times is not going to tell you that, even after 5 years of BLM induced mayhem.”— Happy 5th Anniversary of the Racial Reckoning
The Foundation
The assumption took root in a New York Times line graph from 2025. The graph plotted all 2020 homicides as occurring on January 1. This made the 29 percent surge appear to precede Floyd's death on May 25. [1] It seemed credible for tracking yearly trends. But growing evidence suggests this was flawed, as CDC weekly data indicates most of the increase happened after May. [1] The graph reinforced a sub-belief that police pullbacks during BLM protests caused no real harm. Annual data aggregation hid the timing. [1] The misplaced line between 2020 and 2021 implied the racial reckoning followed the surge, not the other way around. [3] Recognition of these flaws is increasing, though not yet universal.
▶ Supporting Quotes (3)
“Your graph makes it look like the huge surge in homicides (about 29% across all races) mostly happened _before_ Floyd's demise when, in reality, according to CDC WONDER mortality data, most of the increase happened in the weeks immediately after his death”— The NYT Corrected Its Ludicrous George Floyd Homicide Graph ...
“the black-on-black homicide surge is finally abating, but the increase in black car crash death rate remained elevated at least through late 2024.”— The NYT Corrected Its Ludicrous George Floyd Homicide Graph ...
“Notice that they put the vertical line denoting the effect of the beginning of the George Floyd racial reckoning on May 25, 2020 on homicides in the wrong year: between 2020 and 2021 when it should, of course, be between 2019 and 2020?”— Happy 5th Anniversary of the Racial Reckoning
How It Spread
The idea gained traction through the New York Times. In 2025, the newspaper ran the graph in a major article on police killings. It reached eleven million subscribers. [1] Social media users criticized it, but no immediate correction followed. [1] The Times spread the notion further with its anniversary graphic. That version also misrepresented the timing of the surge relative to Floyd's death. [3]
▶ Supporting Quotes (2)
“You are being widely criticized on social media for a graph appearing in your May 24, 2025 article”— The NYT Corrected Its Ludicrous George Floyd Homicide Graph ...
“This makes it look like there was a huge surge in homicides before George Floyd when, in truth, the huge surge was after.”— Happy 5th Anniversary of the Racial Reckoning
Harm Caused
The graph's placement obscured a key pattern. Growing evidence suggests the post-Floyd homicide surge tied to BLM protests and police retreats, leading to more black deaths by gunfire and car crashes. [1] Over five years, the Times' reporting downplayed this. [1] CDC data points to historic spikes in black homicides after May 25, 2020. [3] Traffic fatalities rose too, though homicide rates spiked more sharply. [3] This documented fallout from the unrest went underreported. Countless black lives ended in the surge. [3] The debate on these harms continues, but evidence increasingly highlights the costs.
▶ Supporting Quotes (4)
“did the elite embrace of Black Lives Matter after George Floyd's death on May 25, 2020 get a massive number more African-American lives killed by increased homicides (and by increased motor vehicle accidents)?”— The NYT Corrected Its Ludicrous George Floyd Homicide Graph ...
“This would seem to be one of the most important findings of American social science of this era, but the NYT has been extremely weak at reporting on it over the last five years.”— The NYT Corrected Its Ludicrous George Floyd Homicide Graph ...
“The triumph of Black Lives Matter got countless black lives murdered and splattered on the asphalt by lying about the death toll.”— Happy 5th Anniversary of the Racial Reckoning
“Here are the actual CDC figures for black homicide victimizations and black traffic fatalities by week from 2018 to 2013:”— Happy 5th Anniversary of the Racial Reckoning
Downfall
The assumption began to crack in 2025. Steve Sailer sent his email on May 26, including CDC weekly graphs. This prompted the Times to adjust the online graphic without fanfare. [1] CDC data played a key role. It showed black homicides rising sharply after May 25, 2020. [3] Growing evidence from these sources suggests the pre-Floyd surge idea was flawed. Recognition of this is emerging, though the matter remains debated among experts.
▶ Supporting Quotes (2)
“As you can see, the beginning of the post-Floyd Racial Reckoning during the last days of May 2020 saw a historic surge in black lives being splattered by gunfire and car crashes, probably due to less pro-active policing.”— The NYT Corrected Its Ludicrous George Floyd Homicide Graph ...
“Wow, it’s almost as if the triumph of Black Lives Matter on May 25, 2020 subsequently got a whole lot of Black Lives Murdered and Splattered on the Asphalt.”— Happy 5th Anniversary of the Racial Reckoning
Sources
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[1]
The NYT Corrected Its Ludicrous George Floyd Homicide Graph ...reputable_journalism
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[2]
Bullet Proofreputable_journalism
- [3]